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Microsoft Boasts 96% Netbook Penetration
An anonymous reader writes "Citing figures from market research firm NPD, Microsoft says Windows' share of the US netbook market has ballooned from less than 10% in the first half of 2008 to 96% as of February. 'The growth of Windows on netbook PCs over the last year has been phenomenal,' wrote Brandon LeBlanc, Microsoft's in-house Windows blogger, in a post Friday. Information Week author Paul McDougall notes Microsoft's 8% decline in Windows sales is due to netbooks sporting Linux. How does Redmond make an 80% gain in netbook market share without the sales numbers reflecting that gain?"
Chair penetrates netbook 96%.
Assuming that these figures are correct & MS has managed to grow their share of the netbook market....let's not forget:
1) They had to keep XP around to do so.
2) Linux has proved itself good enough that manufacturers will consider it.
3) Pulling the same stunt on the rash of $150 arm-based netbooks that will be hitting the shelves later this year will be much harder.
My pics.
one word: ARM
Is there any other way to call it? 'Race to the bottom' sounds so crass. Perhaps 'delivering better customer value by focusing on essential factors while reducing extraneous costs?' I raced to the bottom once and I found really weird stuff there...
I would like to die like my grandfather did - sleeping. And not screaming in terror, like his passengers.
This isn't shocking at all. The netbook market isn't what it used to be, mostly I suspect because Microsoft AND the hardware makers recoiled in horror from what was happening. Look at the original netbook:
Old cheap Celeron CPU
7-9" Display
2-8GB Flash storage
512MB-1GB RAM
Weight 1KG
Price centered around $350 +/- $50
Now look at what passes for a netbook:
1.6Ghz Atom
10" Display
160GB HDD
1-2GB RAM
Weight 1-2KG
Price $300 to $500
The original specs couldn't run XP very well, and it wasn't an option. Vista was right out. So Microsoft brought back XP and everyone amped up the specs until it ran nicely. After all the new above average netbook was a kick ass desktop when XP was introduced.
Add in the fact all of the major netbook makers also make notebooks and desktops and thus need Microsoft's good will and it is easy enough to see how most netbooks now ship with Windows. Anyway, at the current prices and specs they are more like small laptops anyway and pretty much 100% of those have always shipped with Windows.
Wait for the ARM invasion. If hardware CAN run Windows vendors are always going to get pressured to load it. The ARM machines simply can't do it. Give a choice between a full Linux desktop, Android and WinCE and Microsoft's offering is going to come up a little short.
Sooner or later we will see netbooks under $200 and that is where things will get fun. If they give out Windows licenses cheap enough to put it on sub $200 units it will either force an across the board cut in all OEM licensing or really tick a lot of people off.
Democrat delenda est
Actually, it's an acronym. ;-)
http://www.dieblinkenlights.com
This goes against the prevailing wisdom here, but Linux is not necessarily the best OS for netbooks.
The newest netbooks have about as much CPU power and memory as a notebook computer made 3 years ago. That's enough to run windows XP and older Microsoft applications such as office 2003.
And, Windows has the overwhelming advantage it always did : it has an enormous existing software library that still dwarfs that of Linux. An operating system is an enormously powerful natural monopoly. It's time to admit that the only way Linux or MacOS could ever pull ahead and have the diversity of software Windows has is if Microsoft royally screws up over a period of years. Windows ME didn't even scratch Microsoft's monopoly, because everyone kept using Win98, and it appears that Vista is the same way.
Finally, I've heard many complain that the netbook manufacturers don't properly choose a good Linux distro and configure it with all the software a user is likely to ever need. If the manufacturers did that, pre-installing open office and VLC media player and firefox and the rest, and tuned the distro behind the scenes to run blazing fast on a flash disk, then Linux might have stayed a viable option.
I would assume Microsoft has also adapated to this market : they must be offering a substantial discount on the software license for a netbook. Wouldn't surprise me if they were selling "XP for netbook use" for $20 a license. It could very well be that it is cheaper to pay Microsoft than it is to pay the technical support costs for Linux.
well, here's another piece of anecdotal evidence for you: most of my friends that got netbooks with linux installed windows on them (pirated or licensed) mostly because either the linux version was cheaper or the same price but bigger hdd.
> The only way to keep Microsoft out is to race to the bottom and there's no economic
> incentive for the hardware manufacturers to do that.
There is no incentive for the CURRENT manufacturers to do that. But if you aren't in the laptop/pc business right now there is good reasons to see an opportunity to have the first $150 laptop and sell the ever luvin crap out of them as Xmas impulse items through retail outlets that won't care about cannibalizing their laptop sales because they don''t currently sell computers at all.
By your logic we would have never seen the $24.99 DVD player because "Who wants to race to the bottom." No, Sony or Phillips didn't do it but no name Chinese outfits did it and make a profit at it. The computer is poised to make that last transition to disposable consumer electronics.
They won't be trying to kill Microsoft, it will just be that they can't give em enough royalties to matter when selling on consumer electronics margins. So even if Microsoft made em a deal, once the marketplace finishes the move to consumer electronics Microsoft is going to be a shadow of it's former self. And Apple is just as boned.
Democrat delenda est
The article also mentions that: "Not only are people overwhelmingly buying Windows, but those that try Linux are often returning it," wrote Leblanc, noting that the United Kingdom's Car phone Warehouse dropped Linux-based netbooks after seeing return rates as high as 20%."
What sacrifice? It's good for customers. It's no sweat for Linux distributions. And hardware manufacturers have shown that they can make sufficient margins to make sub-$300 systems profitable, or they wouldn't be making them at all.
Bruce Perens.
Let's not forget that Microsoft had to be dragged kicking and screaming into this market.
> If you can do that with WinCE as well as Linux, then what difference does it make?
First off, Linux has a full software stack. A real working Firefox with most of the expected plugins, OO.o, etc. WinCE has what exactly? To date it, and the apps written for it, have mostly been geared around PDAs and smart phones, usually with a touch screen.
WinCE isn't Windows. The main advantage Windows has for the average customer is the known quantity. It's Windows, just like on the other machines they interact with at home, school, work, friends, etc. The same programs run, etc. WinCE has none of those advantages, in fact the association with Windows will only confuse as it will lead the clueless to think it IS Windows and then be disillusioned when it is discovered to be something completely different.
WinCE will raise the per unit cost of the machine though, and if it isn't to cut too deeply into Microsoft's profits it is going to have to cost a lot to keep the monopoly rents flowing in. Meanwhile the pengin is still Free except for the ARM port of the Flash plugin.
Democrat delenda est
I think his're point was actually a joke.
Last week I walked into no fewer than 20 different computer stores here in Taiwan (the home of ASUS, Acer, MSI, etc), big and small, in order to buy a Linux netbook. But despite the fact that some of them displayed as many as 20 different brands and models, I found exactly 0 (zero!) netbooks shipping with Linux. Zero, nada, nothing! It just doesn't exist any more.
So yes, I believe Microsoft and its 96% figure. While people had choice between Linux and Windows, the figure was very different, but since the consumers are no longer offered a Linux option, even 96% seems low. The situation with netbooks is now exactly the same as with laptops - it's 2009 and it's still impossible to buy one without Windows pre-installed!
I always have to laugh when I read news about EU suing Microsoft for bundling a browser or a media player with Windows, but fails to see the real issue - Microsoft's complete stronghold over hardware manufacturers. ASUS, Acer, MSI, Dell, HP - they all "recommend Windows for everyday computing" on their web sites. Out of their free will, no doubt...
Car Phone Warehouse sold an early version of the MS Wind which came with Linux but which didn't have drivers for the wifi or webcam. Wouldn't you return that? Unless you were a Linux geek or installing Windows, I'm sure that you would.
Put identity in the browser.
IIRC Acer's VP said that returns of their Linux netbooks are 30% higher than the Windows versions, however ASUS's CEO says that return rates for EeePcs are the same for Linux models as for Windows
This probably reflects a difference between Acer and ASUS. Acer netbooks are sold as small notebooks, while the Eee aren't really sold as notebook replacements, but rather as their own, separate type of computer. Basically, people expect the Eee to be different than their Windows notebook or desktop, and so aren't immediately put off by the interface, whereas Acer customers are sold a "tiny laptop computer", buy the Linux version, and get upset when it's not exactly like what they're used to.
And where were the retailers you talked to?
There are no longer any Linux netbooks for sale at physical retail stores where I live (USA). No, it's not that they're out of stock frequently (as some Windows models are); they are no longer kept in stock.
Target is the only retailer that even lists Linux models on their website; they used to sell the 7" Eee PC in stores. Now they sell Windows models in-store & advertise them, as do all the other retail stores that sell computers.
No, we'll always have PA-RISC.
Dark Reflection
it wasn't Moore's Law, it was Microsoft financing and marketing kickback programs. Did you notice how Asus, after negotiating putting Windows XP on the EeePC they then changed the hardware such that the Linux versions were more expensive? We all know Linux distros easily run on anything Windows runs on but not the other way around. So Asus beefed up the hardware for the Linux models, beefed up the price, and then would only make 50% Windows based and 50% Linux based and some countries were no longer getting Linux versions at all.
It was monopoly money that changed the netbook market share numbers instead of market demand defining those numbers.
LoB
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
most of my friends that got netbooks with linux installed windows on them
Sounds like you need new friends