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Letting Time Solve the Online News Dilemma

The Guardian's John Naughton isn't looking to micro-transactions or licensing fees from search services to solve the online news business model problems that have come to a head recently. Instead, he's simply waiting for capitalism to do its job in killing off the providers who can't cut it. Once that happens, he says, the remaining organizations will be in a far better position to see what web-goers will pay for online news, and he doesn't think it will inhibit the growth of an increasingly information-rich news ecosystem. "Things have got so bad that Rupert Murdoch has tasked a team with finding a way of charging for News Corp content. This is the 'make the bastards pay' school of thought. Another group of fantasists speculate about ways of extorting money from Google, which they portray as a parasitic feeder on their hallowed produce. ... But what will journalism be like in the perfectly competitive online world? One clue is provided by the novelist William Gibson's celebrated maxim that 'the future is already here; it's just not evenly distributed.' In a recent lecture, the writer Steven Johnson took Gibson's insight to heart and argued that if we want to know what the networked journalism of the future might be like, we should look now at how the reporting of technology has evolved over the past few decades."

23 of 188 comments (clear)

  1. Warning! This is a False Sense of Security! by eldavojohn · · Score: 5, Interesting

    It's difficult to keep one's head when all about one people are losing theirs, but let us have a go. First of all, some historical perspective might help. When broadcast radio arrived in the US in the 1920s, nobody could figure out a business model for it. How could one generate revenue from something that could be listened to by anyone for free? Dozens of companies were founded to exploit the new medium, and most of them folded. The problem was solved by a detergent manufacturer named Procter & Gamble, which came up with the idea of sponsoring dramatic serials: the soap opera â" and the mass market â" was born.

    What you're overlooking is that newspapers have enjoyed revenues for quite sometime. Granted, they've risen and fallen, they are used to this steady income. Radio wasn't used to this income. Models like brand name advertising and recognition ensured its success. Newspapers have made money off of controlling the distribution channels of a similar model with great results, now they are staring down the barrel of a distribution model that they cannot control. They aren't used to this and they certainly aren't handling it well.

    What radio saw was a controlled explosion in which they ramped up and expanded across everywhere. That's an easy thing to do because it's positive. What newspapers across the country should be doing is cutting unnecessary jobs, refactoring salaries. Being a columnist is not going to be glamorous any more. The irony is that you're going to be more widely read but be paid less. That might make a lot of people want to quit and find other work ... who could blame them?

    This restructuring must happen or you will die. Marketing and endorsements have been the only card you have played (Murdoch's micro charging is proof he's out of ideas) for the past decade as the internet has exploded. The recession is making this more obvious now than it was last year. You had your chance to invent the new way, now you must act or reduce your work force.

    The moral is simple: eventually someone will figure out a business model that works for online news. But it may take some time, and lots of outfits will fall by the wayside in the meantime. That's capitalism for you.

    You are wrong. There is an end state where no one figures out a way for the model to work. Newspapers go the way of the buffalo just like drive in theaters. You have done yourself and your kind a great disservice by theorizing this false safety net and are only further lulling them into inaction and unemployment. I am not in your business but I see it from the outside and as a customer, use this advice.

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    My work here is dung.
    1. Re:Warning! This is a False Sense of Security! by DarkOx · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sometimes things going the way of the dodo is capitalism as well. How many buggy whip manufacturers are there today? A more than few I imagine, for various equine sport but not the numbers that once existed.

      Drive-In movies are all about gone too because we just don't need them any more. People have so many other options for entertainment and so many other venues including their homes to watch the same movies in the drive-in theater is just not a marketable service any more. It may be the same way with the papers. The question is where will investigative reporting and other hard news content come from? I think we all understand there is a need for and a market for that content. What needs to be figured out is how to deliver it profitably.

      I suspect print newspapers and even online news sites as they exist to day are not that mechanism, nor is network broadcast news. I just don't know how it gets done, If I did I would be doing it.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
    2. Re:Warning! This is a False Sense of Security! by sycodon · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Newspapers go the way of the buffalo just like drive in theaters.

      Don't confuse the delivery mechanism with the product. The product is "What is going on?". It is delivered now via Newspapers, T.V., Radio, and the Web.

      While a great deal of it is generated by the infrastructure of workers created and maintained by the newspapers, there is plenty that is generated independent of them.

      The analogy of Drive Ins is very accurate. It used to be they were one of only two options to watch movies. Even though the Drive In are now virtually extinct, people still watch movies. And their options for watching them have expanded greatly.

      People will always want, no, need to know what is going on. Regardless of what happens to the newspaper industry, someone will be there to fill that need and they will be compensated one way or another.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    3. Re:Warning! This is a False Sense of Security! by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 4, Funny

      Newspapers go the way of the buffalo just like drive in theaters.

      That would be fantastic. Because after a long hiatus, I can now get a buffalo burger at a local restaurant. I can. not. wait. for a delicious NYT burger in 50 years.

    4. Re:Warning! This is a False Sense of Security! by hey! · · Score: 3, Insightful

      How many buggy whip manufacturers are there today? Quite a few actually, if you bothered to look. In any case, buggy whip manufacture never was something done on an industrial scale. Buggies were not anything like as common as cars are today. It was never an important industry.

      In any case, the thing you're missing is that the primary product of newspapers wasn't the sheaf of paper you could hold in your hand; it was knowledge. Knowledge isn't a commodity like a buggy whip, or an hour or so's entertainment at the drive in. We are enriched as much if not more by others around us having knowledge than our own knowledge itself.

      Newspapers as an artifact aren't important. As organizations for generating knowledge about current events, they are indispensable. A mediocre newspaper does vastly more story development than the best newscast.

      The salient characteristic of the Internet in the funding of knowledge generation is that Internet is funded by huge volumes of tiny transactions. This means that you want knowledge with wide appeal and low cost. Expensive local news gathering is out, and the national political opinion echo chamber is in. It probably cost the Boston Globe a half million dollars to break the clergy sex abuse scandal. Countless other organizations made money off of writing opinion pieces on that. That's the future of news: less fact gathering, more opinion spreading. In the end, "news" will simply be the upper echelon of the blogosphere.

      The positive side might be "crowd sourced" news. That's certainly a bright spot. But while that's find for getting pictures of an airliner that ditches in the Hudson river, it's no substitute for going after a story.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  2. Capitalism maximizes for profit by AlexBirch · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Capitalism just maximizes for profit not for equity, not fairness. NPR versus Fox News is a great example of this. Fox News will be going strong for a long, long time; regardless of their bias. NPR could be hurt if the government cut off all their funds.

    Saying that capitalism will save the day overly simplistic.

    1. Re:Capitalism maximizes for profit by anaesthetica · · Score: 3, Insightful

      NPR could be hurt if the government cut off all their funds.

      Well, there's the key difference between NPR and a paper like The Guardian. NPR has never turned a profit, and has never bothered to develop a profit model. It has remained on the public dole by design. The Guardian, a paper that is further to the left than NPR, nevertheless manages to turn in a healthy profit. It may not be Fox News, but it does quite well for itself.

      Saying that capitalism will save the day overly simplistic.

      The irony of The Guardian advocating a profit-driven, competitive, capitalist solution to the current woes of the news industry can't have gone unnoticed to you.

  3. Parasitic Google? by rackserverdeals · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Another group of fantasists speculate about ways of extorting money from Google, which they portray as a parasitic feeder on their hallowed produce.

    From what I understand Google licenses news from the big news wires as well as from some of the big newspapers. Some of that has been forced through lawsuits.

    Before that, they would just crawl news sites and display headlines and summaries, just like in their normal search.

    It seems odd. Google has to pay for the privilege of sending them traffic. I wish I could get a deal like that.

    If I were Google, the next time the traditional news outlets came to me with their hands out I'd tell them I've decided that I'd be more than happy to remove all their content from my index and no longer "steal" their business. Thew newspaper execs wouldn't like that too much.

    --
    Dual Opteron < $600
    1. Re:Parasitic Google? by rackserverdeals · · Score: 3, Informative

      It's more like "Google has to pay for the privilege of displaying content creators freshly created content next to Google ads."

      There are no ads on the Google News homepage or the Google home page or even the iGoogle homepage so I don't see how they are using ads with other people's content in your case.

      Without you using Google, those news sites wouldn't get the 10% of clicks you generate.

      If newspapers don't like it they can use their robots.txt file to block googlebot. Even worse, Google News has become more of an opt-in crawl where you have to request it and meet certain crtieria. You even need to include a unique numerical id in your urls for google to include you in the news index.

      Newspapers could opt out of google news but it would be the equivalent of providing newsstands with front pages that contained no headlines or stories. People walking by wouldn't see the attention grabbing headlines that might cause them to buy the paper and see the advertisements contained.

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      Dual Opteron < $600
  4. Will People Pay? by Mikkeles · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Will people pay for well-reasoned, researched, and written commentary and opinion columns?

    I would, but not the price of a year's subscription for print. I would pay that, however, if I had unfettered access to, e.g., all (or most) Canadian newspapers online; including the small, local papers. Similarly for a major English-language paper from each country.

    This simulates the blog experience - access to a multitude of differing viewpoints, but with financing to be able to do a good to excellent job.

    --
    Great minds think alike; fools seldom differ.
    1. Re:Will People Pay? by Zocalo · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Absolutely they will. Anyone who has been in the UK recently can't help but have seen some coverage of the MP Expenses scandal which The Telegraph has been milking for a couple of weeks now. This is good old fashioned journalism at its best; a competent team of reporters going over a huge amount of data and expressing it clearly and succinctly in terms the public can understand. Sure, there's some sensationalism in there too, but the results speak for themselves; a respectable UK broadsheet seeing an increase in circulation of over 50,000 a day is phenomenal for a medium that is supposed to have been left in the dust by "iReporters" and the "Blogosphere". You can bet that there has been a similar uptick in what the paper is charging people wanting to advertise in the paper as well, and it's probably already a forgone conclusion which paper will be walking away with the big journalism awards in the UK this year.

      John Naughton's approach is probably the correct one, but as we've seen from the examples set by the music and movie industries, the media business isn't exactly quick to adapt and has the funds to struggle on for a very long time. I'm all for seeing a few of Rupert Murdoch's red tops go to the wall, but unfortunately "Peter and Jordon to divorce" still sells far more papers than "MP claimed for moat on expenses" (yes, really). It's probably going to be a case of the few standing taking all, but unfortunately I suspect that some of those left standing are going to be those who have the funds to muddle and sue their way through the end.

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    2. Re:Will People Pay? by whoever57 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      ... the MP Expenses scandal which The Telegraph has been milking for a couple of weeks now. This is good old fashioned journalism at its best; a competent team of reporters going over a huge amount of data and expressing it clearly and succinctly in terms the public can understand.

      In the US, people are concerned about how to pay for "investigative journalism". The only problem with this is that it is largely dead already in the US. The same person who tried to convince the SEC that Bernie Madoff was running a Ponzi scheme took his information to major newspapers also. Did they follow up? Another example: there was an interview in NPR with a reporter who, two to three years ago had been investigating and writing about how bad things were going to happen to the financial system -- so investigative journalism is still alive in the US? Nope, she wrote for the UK's Financial Times.

      But the big problem with US newspapers is that, as an industry, it is massively overstaffed. There are far too many newspapers, each with its own newsroom and, more importantly, its own overhead. We don't need so many newspapers. Competition amongst newspapers is not required because real competition from other news sources exists.

      --
      The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
  5. True Investigative Journalism by tmosley · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It seems likely to me that the only way for these guys to really survive is going to be for them to get back to doing real, hard hitting investigative journalism. Anyone can and does do the shallow stuff. Blogs will certainly fill that niche, and they will remain free. What you can charge for is first access to breaking news and good investigative journalism. Want to see where the money trail leads in the bank bailouts? You'll have to subscribe to our premium service. Want to hear which of your local politicians is taking kickbacks from government contractors? That'll be a one time fee, or free to our subscribers.

    The days of relying on the news wire are over, guys. Anyone can do that, and they can do it without having to pay a single salary, while making money off of ad content. In a perfectly competitive system, consumer costs approach the marginal costs. When something is basically free, or cheap enough to be ad supported, then it will be. If the audience is limited, or the costs too high, than a fee to read will be used, or some other model will emerge. This is how the market works. It drives non-competitive players out of the market. On a side note, the music industry would do well to adopt a similar strategy (ie the music is free/ad supported, but the concerts are not).

  6. Is Murdoch living In Soviet Russia? by Bazman · · Score: 4, Funny

    Surely Murdoch's effort to monetarize News Corp content is not 'make the bastards pay', but 'make us pay the bastards'?

  7. Chicken and the Egg problem... by RyanFenton · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The problem with funding news isn't itself news. The reason I watch and respect a news service is because they put resources into investigating the world and offering valuable insight. But I also aknowledge, that I can be occasionally pulled into cheap editorial content.

    Guess which one's cheaper.

    So, in the commercial news business, the industry has once again shifted drastically towards the cost-conscious editorial and rehashed-news dominance. Everyone's using the same sources, and the sources are dwindling. And because of that, the feeling that any given news provider has unique value is only contained in the unique voice they give themselves, but even that is becoming a formless soup.

    The news providers provide less meaningful news, leading to less interest, leading to less money, leading to more editorial dominance, and so on... mostly because the global pool of money has shrunk so much to prevent many real sparks of bold investigative journalism from being worth the risk in the environment. Like with the chicken and the egg, even when we've learned that the egg is far older than any chicken, it doesn't get us more chicken.

    That's why I've been turning to the BBC (and the CBC) more often. Put whatever hate you want on socialism, but it really does improve on capitalism when it comes to allowing media to do an effective job at funding news. They're certainly not perfect - but the signal to noise ratio is so much better, in terms of what remains after the bullshit filter, from my biased perspective. PBS/NPR are also nice in spots, but they really have lacked diversity, as administrations have waged ideological wars through appointments.

    That's my fix for reliable news sources - make funding more independent from news content, and get more international perspective where possible.

    Ryan Fenton

  8. Naked News will survive... by Mishotaki · · Score: 4, Funny

    Naked News will survive much longer than their paid service.

    We all know we prefer to pay to see women undress than a dressed person reading the same news...

  9. Subscription model by actionbastard · · Score: 3, Informative

    Many 'large' newspapers are part of media conglomerates that also control cable systems and radio stations. In order for the newspaper protion to survive they will have to cease providing 'free' service to non-subscribers. Cablevision, which controls the Long Island, New York-based Newsday, will be changing their website to a subscription only service starting in June of 2009. Long Island Cablevision subscribers will have access to the site as part of their cable service, while others will have to pay if they want more than 'limited' news. Apparently the S.F. Chronicle will be doing the same thing soon. This is probably the start of a trend that will continue as these companies struggle to make a profit.

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    Sig this!
  10. The difference in quality is becoming clear by AnalPerfume · · Score: 3, Insightful

    In the days where normal people couldn't have their opinions read / heard / seen by the masses, the position of those in organizations like newspapers had some perceived value to them. With the widespread adoption of the internet allowing more people than ever to have their opinions widely spread we are starting to see that many so called "professional" writers are not that much better than amateurs with blogs. We can do what they do for free. There are "proper journalists" who do stand out, but those are the minority, not the majority.

    We have also long seen that "news" organizations are nothing more than agenda machines who will seek to feed every story through their political / moral / religious agenda to try and influence their audience......again I ask, what is so different about bloggers? The concept that being part of an organization brings a level of trusted journalism is mostly bullshit. It does carry the guarantee that the story put out will be part of that agenda, regardless of how much they have to twist it out of all context to make it fit.

    Any source of "news" is reliant on it's credibility. That credibility is earned, not paid for by sponsors. Traditional news organizations have long held the upper hand and abused the truth for their own ends with nobody else as an alternative. They now face the facts that many bloggers have more credibility than the so called "professionals". They now face the fact that bloggers content is just a click away.

    Poor journalists will fall in the face of this, no doubt whining to their unions and anyone who will listen that they're being hard done by and that "the public good" will be harmed by their unemployment while journalists who have stood firm and tried their hardest to "report" the news rather than try to "set" the news to a particular agenda will prosper. Reputation is everything.

    Fox News is an perfect example of an agenda network with the name "news" in the title to try and pretend otherwise. Given their collusion with the Bush regime and detachment from reality they deserve all the karma they have coming.

  11. What a Narrow Minded Post by eldavojohn · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Any reasonable person listening to NPR would recognize the built in ideological slant to NPR.

    Well, call me unreasonable then because I recognize little if any slant. And I know you will say that's proof of my political leanings but I don't think it is. I listen to NPR because the rest of radio is complete and utter trash. I don't want to listen to a naked girl rub her boobs on the host on air. I'd rather listen to Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me or Sound Money ... shows I can't see any liberal bias you speak of. You know in Minnesota, they have at least three different MPR stations that play music. Classical music and independent rock. Commercial free. You're also arguing against that when you argue against public radio.

    One listener to NOR said it best in a letter read on the air: "Gays, Aids, and Abortion". You are guaranteed to hear at least one story on one of these subjects every freaking day.

    I don't know what NOR is but I'll assume you meant NPR. I grew up listening to A Prairie Home Companion and don't recall any of those topics. I don't know what "Gays, Aids and Abortion" has to do with being liberal, they are all issues that should be addressed by anyone regardless of their political affiliation. They are current topics. Have you heard their coverage of the war in Iraq? I've found that to be very unbiased.

    Throw in a story about how wonderful (insert liberal politician here) is and how evil (Insert conservative politician here) is and then add some snooty, witty, and amusing story about some obscure idiot and there you have an NPR broadcast.

    You have never listened to NPR. Do you know that a lot of the affiliates switch over to BBC World News late at night? Do you find that to have a horribly liberal bias?

    NPR should have their government funds cut off. Let George Soros buy it.

    Do you know how much money you pay to NPR? Probably a few cents a month--if that. I don't think they would really care if they lost government funding, probably just push their pledge drive out another day. They get so little from the government and so much from listeners that would like to see any kind of news source free without ads, available everywhere in the country. Think about it, people hand money to them ... they don't have to charge like Murdoch wants to.

    They may present more liberal topics than conservative topics but at least they don't use verbage that tries to tell me how to think about them (a la Fox News).

    I would bet that if you took a citizen from another part of the world and made them listen to NPR they would see it as pretty damn neutral.

    How the parent post got moderated insightful, I'll never know.

    --
    My work here is dung.
  12. News is now entertainment. by copponex · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The problem is that news needs to be critical information, and not just entertainment, in order for democracy to work. Even a truly free market requires critical analysis of products, because it only functions if consumers are making informed decisions.

    Let's say we just let the chips fall where they may and cable news becomes the de facto standard for journalism. When you have a handful of corporations whose job is to sell advertising to another handful of corporations, the amount of self-censorship would skyrocket. Common sense tells you that outing your highest paid advertiser for having a sweatshop or poisoning a creek that's giving children cancer is a bad business move.

    Imagine this scenario: two journalists approach their editor with a story. One is a fluff piece about a local sports star getting arrested for hiring a prostitute. The other is an investigation into alleged union busting at a major local employer, who also happens to be one of their biggest advertisers. In a purely capitalist model, which journalist gets the green light? Does the editor who cranks out huge profits for less money get the promotion?

    A book was written about the subject, with a nice summary on Wikipedia:

    According to the book, the pressure to create a stable, profitable business invariably distorts the kinds of news items reported, as well as the manner and emphasis in which they are reported. This occurs not as a result of conscious design but simply as a consequence of market selection: those businesses who happen to favor profits over news quality survive, while those that present a more accurate picture of the world tend to become marginalized.
    Manufacturing Consent, by Herman and Chomsky

    For a concrete example, check this out this article on the coverage of the genocide in East Timor.

    Basically, if you let market forces totally control news media in any form, you will end up with entertainment that distributes what is popular but not what is true. It's the difference between the BBC and Fox News. Both are biased, but as far as the quality of news they provide, Fox isn't even in the same dimension.

  13. It's not Google killing the news sites by Todd+Knarr · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I'm afraid it's not Google killing the news sites. It's the Internet itself. The Internet made it possible for anybody who wants to to publish cheaply and get read by a world-wide audience, and in the process killed the mere reporting of news as a paying job.

    Why should I go to a news site to read a reprint of a press release from a company when I can go to that company's own Web site and read the original press release? Why should I read a news report of the latest scientific breakthrough when I can go to the scientist's own site and read his own paper on it? Why should I read the news reports of a disaster when I can go to the Twitter feeds and Livejournals of people who're actually there and read their first-hand reports, or go to the web sites of the emergency-services agencies in the area and read their updates on the situation? And in all of those cases, those first-hand sources aren't in the business of reporting news. They don't particularly care whether they get paid for generating their content, they've got other reasons of their own for wanting that content visible. And, as in so many things, the Internet's making it harder and harder for those middlemen whose business model is to get between the source of something and the eventual consumer and charge for transferring that something from the source to the destination.

    Now, news sites aren't doomed. But to survive they're going to have to do something more than just report the news. They're going to have to start pulling together many sources of different information, analyzing all of it and putting together the pieces that it isn't immediately obvious fit together. Of course, that's going to be kind of hard seeing as they've spent the last decade or so wiping all traces of that out of their organizations because investigative journalism of any quality doesn't produce the Holy ROI.

  14. Re:There's a big thing missing... by value_added · · Score: 4, Interesting

    ...is that most of the "easy fruit" of reporting that basicly just being on site and report what's happening is easily done by regular people, there's always someone who likes to talk about it.

    Time for another Slashdot Pop Quiz. Which of the following is most true?

    a) Regular people are willing to regularly attend hearings on the local, state or federal level;

    b) Regular people have a budget to attend and cover those hearings;

    c) Regular people have an extensive network of contacts in local, state, or federal governments with whom they've developed relationships that facilitate ferreting out new stories, ongoing consent to both on and off-record quoting, and cross-checking facts; or

    d) Regular people watch American Idol.

    The answer is obviously (d). Now if you're feeling inspired, pick a topic. Doesn't have to be government. After you've spent a few weeks researching who the movers and shakers are, see if you can get your name and email address added to the list of folks who regularly receive information, say, something ordinary like press releases. Your odds are higher than trying to get someone important to actually take your calls, but those odds are probably still slim to none.

    When you get round to discovering you've got nothing to contribute, you'll be ready to blog about it anyway along with countless others who are doing the same. Hopefully by then you've gained some respect for reporters, most of whom are employed by newspapers. If not, I guess we'll have to sit back and wait for that traffic accident, meteor landing in your backyard, or other one-off event to occur for you to play Regular Guy Reporter.

  15. Re:News is now entertainment. mod up by Ralph+Spoilsport · · Score: 4, Interesting
    The problem is that news needs to be critical information, and not just entertainment, in order for democracy to work

    100% correct. unfortunately, since the fall of the CCCP, the news industry has slowly collapsed into a sensationalistic grab bag of titillation and distraction.

    Here's a nice short documentary on this by Adam Curtis.

    RS

    --
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