Extrapolating the Near Future of Gaming

Sci-fi author Charlie Stross gave a keynote address at the recent LOGIN 2009 conference about what we can reasonably expect from games and game-related technology over the next 10 to 20 years. He takes a realistic look at the limitations we'll face with regard to processing power and bandwidth, and goes on to talk about how augmented reality software and aging gamers will affect future titles. Quoting: "But the sixty-something gamers of 2020 are not the same as the sixty-somethings you know today. They're you, only twenty years older. By then, you'll have a forty year history of gaming; you won't take kindly to being patronised, or given in-game tasks calibrated for today's sixty-somethings. The codgergamers of 2030 will be comfortable with the narrative flow of games. They're much more likely to be bored by trite plotting and cliched dialog than todays gamers. They're going to need less twitchy user interfaces — ones compatible with aging reflexes and presbyopic eyes — but better plot, character, and narrative development. And they're going to be playing on these exotic gizmos descended from the iPhone and its clones: gadgets that don't so much provide access to the internet as smear the internet all over the meatspace world around their owners."

Comments

Have a look at the age pyramide

[aepervius]

Those 60+ years old gamer will be a minority market in comparison to the 14-20 years old. Which is why today despite having 40 years old demographic, we still have a majority of game geared toward a less mature audience as a whole. And yes, I don't need to be 60 years old to recognize a trite story already made 100 times. I could already recognized that at 25. We don't get wisdom suddenly at 60 years old you know...

Re:Have a look at the age pyramide

[ouimetch]

Nostalgia is also a very big part of growing older, so I imagine it would be very wise to develop games with a more "classical" set-up that will appeal to these older users. Either re-releasing old goodies like various NES, SNES, Genesis titles etc, or developing titles with a familiar playstyle(who wouldn't want to play a sweet new side-scroller) would probly be the way to go.

Re:Have a look at the age pyramide

[mdwh2]

Unless there's going to be a population boom (unlikely in western countries), I don't see how. It may happen if people lose interesting in games as they get older, but I guess the premise is here that that won't happen. Okay, 60+ gamers won't be a majority, but it's plausible to say they'll be a significant part of the market. Certainly far more so than now, where elderly people mostly don't play games, because they never grew up with them.

And unlike middle aged people, they'll have a lot more time on their hands. And unlike 14-20 year olds, they are more likely to have the money.

We've already seen a shift in games marketing already - up until the mid 1990s, games were still mainly seen as "for kids", and I noticed that with the Playstation, there was a shift in advertising towards young adults. Makes sense really: firstly kids of the 80s were now in their 20s; secondly, they had more disposable income (especially important considering the increasing costs of games production). The last thing games companies wanted then was to have the image stick that games were something only children played.

Re:Have a look at the age pyramide

[AKAImBatman]

Games are about writing stories

Never has their been a more absurd statement.

Games are about entertainment. Story-based gaming is one possible aspect. But when you're playing, say, Simon; what's the story there?

The answer is: NOTHING. There is not story. There's not even a flimsy plot to setup why you're pressing the lighted buttons. You just are. And it's fun.

Same reason why I don't need an excuse to blast aliens in Galaga. It's just FUN.

Story is a way of adding depth to a game. However, it is not a requirement for a game.

Presbyopic eyes?

[Anonymous Coward]

More like bionic eyes. It should be easy as long as they're connected to your blue tooth.

And wtf is it with the iPhone reference, sure these future devices will be descendents of the iPhone in the same way they'll be descendents of Nokia 5110 or the original Gameboy. Srsly, the iPhone is nothing more than a portable touchscreen device with a rather childish looking interface. To put a reference to it in your article is only an attempt to freeload off it's hype.

Re:Enough with this "plot" nonsense

[ouimetch]

While some games are just games, there are many games that have a very artistic style to them. I remember playing Fallout 3 and just stopping and staring around at the scenery once I got outside of vault 101. It is certainly safe to say that many games transcend being simply entertainment, and have enough style and beauty to invoke a powerful emotional reaction in many of its users. Isn't creating an emotional response what art is all about?

Re:Enough with this "plot" nonsense

[mdwh2]

Games are not art

Says who?

Sure, there's no need for a plot in a simple shoot 'em up, but I think good storytelling is important to things such as role-playing games. No, it's not a full blown AI, but neither is a book or a movie. Surely part of the fun is using your imagination, just as we are expected to do for books.