Swine Flu Vaccine In Production

ravjen writes with news that "Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis AG said they have successfully produced a swine flu vaccine weeks ahead of their expectations. The vaccine was made in cells, rather than grown in eggs as is usually the case with vaccines." This announcement came just a day after the World Health Organization declared H1N1's spread to be a pandemic. The vaccine has not been tested in humans yet, so the first batch is set to be used in clinical trials and pre-clinical testing. If all goes well, the new production method would allow Novartis to get the drug to market in large quantities by this fall. Other drug companies, such as Baxter International, have confirmed that they're in "full-scale production" of H1N1 vaccines as well.

Comments

What's the big deal?

[Jurily]

Can anyone explain why this virus is so different from all the others floating around? Why the panic?

The case fatality rate (CFR) of the pandemic strain is estimated at 0.4% (range 0.3%-1.5%)

We've all had worse diseases than this.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

well, my wife caught it - sickest I have ever seen her. Most of the week in the hospital in isolation.
My son had it as well - he just was home from school for the week sleeping. No energy. For a while I really thought I would lose my wife. If this was the "minor" strain, I am scared at what the "experts" say is the upcoming worse strain in the fall.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

It's a new strain of the virus that caused the Spanish flu. H1N1 is known to be highly unstable. It has a tendency to pick up genes from other viruses.

So far, this new strain is milder than a normal yearly influenza virus. But that was also true about the Spanish flu virus, the first two mutations that went around the globe. The third one was highly lethal and, sadly, 100% lethal to pregnant women.

Look at it this way. Three possibilities:

1. We might get a huge deadly pandemic now, which could be as lethal as a world war.

2. Or we may well get a medium deadly pandemic, which also calls for great measures.

3. Or we may get a mild extra flu, on top of the usual annual flu. If we are so lucky this time, it will have been the best possible exercise for our future defences against the next great deadly pandemic. It's only a matter of time before we are faced with a pandemic with the potential of killing off tens of millions of people worldwide.

Fingers crossed and knock on wood, etc, etc...

Re:What's the big deal?

[Clarious]

Because it is highly infectious, there is a high chance that it may merged with another flu virus that is deadlier but has low infection rate (think H5N1 - chicken flu, or SARS) and become a super virus that will wipe half of the earth. Or it could just get mutated and become something that is much more dangerous.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

The current H1N1 "Swine Flu" strain, even though may have milder symptoms to the regular yearly Influenza virus, no one has natural immunity to. Since no one has natural immunity it is able to spread rapidly. It should be noted that people can die from the regular yearly Influenza virus, it's just that we always have an up to date vaccine for the yearly virus, and our bodies usually have an up to date antibody for the virus too.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Xest]

Funnily enough even that figure is skewed.

I was looking at the details about Swine flu the other day, regarding death tolls and that sort of thing.

Apparently seasonal flu mortality rate is 0.1%, some places said 0.5% but this seems to only be in less trustworthy sources like the general media vs. medical journals and scientific articles etc. which suggest 0.1%.

Now, worldwide the swine flu mortality rate is 0.47% last time I calculated it (I don't have the numbers to hand now) which is to be fair, at least 4 times higher than that of seasonal flu.

However, if you examine the situation in Mexico where as of 5th June 97 of the 117 confirmed deaths had occured you'll notice that it's an anomally. The amount of deaths in Mexico is vastly higher in the rest of the world, despite there now being many more cases outside of Mexico than there are in. Why this is could be any number of reasons - poor healthcare, first place hit so they didn't know how to deal with it, lower quality of life in Mexico city and hence people less healthy - who knows, it could be anything. The point is though, that Mexico IS an anomally.

If you factor Mexico out of the equation (both death rates and infection rates) the mortality rate of Swine flu is drastically lower and really is no worse than that of seasonal flu from a percentage standpoint. In fact, outside of the Americas, despite thousands of cases, no one has died at all.

But of course, mortality rate as a percentage isn't the full story. There seem to be two other factors suggesting Swine flu is a problem, these are:

1) The possibility of it mutating to become worse

2) It's more contagious, so even though the mortality rate as a percentage is lower, more people die because more people get infected

As for point 1) I really am not going to worry about this, I don't like to worry about something that is merely speculation, plan for it and account for the possibility? yes, worry about it? No. Is there even any evidence it's more likely to become worse than a particular strain seasonal flu? Point 2 is the real issue, because although it's no more lethal, more people are going to die because of the contagious nature of it, that said even this might not be the case, I don't know how contagious seasonal flu is in comparison.

With Margaret Chan the director of the WHO coming out with such gems as "After all it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic." I've lost a lot of respect for them. Swine flu is undoubtedly a problem but I get the impression the WHO is loving this situation because it's a chance for them to get their names in the news but it's not even the first time - look at all the fear mongering over bird flu and apocalyptic scenarios they told us to expect then, how a bird flu pandemic was inevitable etc. within just a few months at the time, remind me, how did that turn out again?

I'm more concerned that we've got a case of the boy who cried wolf, even this time round swine flu reporting seems to be less prominent than the H5N1 bird flu was at the time so I wonder if even media outlets have already decided to treat what the WHO say with a bit more scepticism.

If you want a real apocalyptic scenario then there's the idea that Swine flu both mutates to become worse and is vastly more contagious but personally, I'll file that alongside worrying about global nuclear war and alien invasion. When there's any evidence to suggest we're closer to any of these I'll start worrying or even caring a bit more. Until then, I'll continue living life as always, washing my hands before I eat, after I sneeze and so on as I always have anyway because it's simply good practice if you want to avoid being ill.

Re:What's the big deal?

[itsdapead]

Why the panic?

(Snip)

We've all had worse diseases than this.

Well, regular flu (esp. real flu rather than just a bad common cold) may not be the black death, but its still not something you'd wish on someone - especially if they're not in otherwise rude health - and even regular outbreaks put a huge strain on healthcare provision.

So a new strain, which people may have no defenses against and isn't stopped by the usual annual vaccine given to vulnerable groups is nothing to be complacent about - especially in the early stages when you don't know how bad it is going to be.

Unfortunately, our moronic media has no middle gears and can't deliver the message "nothing to be complacent about - here is some information" without escalating it to "OMG! ITS THE END OF THE WORLD!!!".

Re:What's the big deal?

[Curtman]

H1N1 is known to be highly unstable. It has a tendency to pick up genes from other viruses.

Is it possible these properties will make for a more "dangerous" vaccine than others?

I'm not well educated in these matters, but I did become very sick after getting a regular flu shot the one and only time I got one.

Re:What's the big deal?

[rve]

Can anyone explain why this virus is so different from all the others floating around? Why the panic?

The case fatality rate (CFR) of the pandemic strain is estimated at 0.4% (range 0.3%-1.5%)

We've all had worse diseases than this.

It seems to be more infectious that seasonal flu, or people have less resistance to it. In a normal flu epidemic, only a few percent of the population gets infected. Most people either never catch a flu, or have it once every couple of years. The Spanish flu of 1918 had a total infection rate of up to 40%. If 40% of the population gets the Mexican flu, and the death rate remains at about 0.5%, it will be more deadly than the American civil war.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Vellmont]

In general I agree with your sentiment that there's been a lot of over-reaction to this whole thing. A few weeks after the thing first blew up in the news we got more information that this is really "no big deal", but yet there's still remnants in the world of the panic machine going forward. The following, however I don't agree with:

- look at all the fear mongering over bird flu and apocalyptic scenarios they told us to expect then, how a bird flu pandemic was inevitable etc. within just a few months at the time, remind me, how did that turn out again?

What I recall is the idiotic media outlets spreading a lot of fear about bird flu. I recall scientific sources talking about this as a long term problem we need to watch and learn more about because it COULD (but we don't know when, maybe decades) eventually mutate into something that spreads from human to human.

If you want a real apocalyptic scenario then there's the idea that Swine flu both mutates to become worse and is vastly more contagious but personally, I'll file that alongside worrying about global nuclear war and alien invasion.

Why is it people have to turn to some other equally idiotic extreme? Global nuclear was and "alien invasion" have never happened except in movies. Global disease outbreaks including flu that killed millions of people have happened with some regularity for hundreds, if not thousands of years. In all likelihood this whole thing will turn out to be nothing as H1N1 is unlikely to mutate into something more deadly. Putting it in the same category as "alien invasion" is just as stupid as all the fear mongering the media outlets love to do.

When there's any evidence to suggest we're closer to any of these I'll start worrying or even caring a bit more.

If we're close to a deadly flu outbreak, it's really already too late. We need to start developing techniques to get faster vaccines now, not just before it happens. If this HAD been the real-deal, a several month delay to make the vaccine is just too long. You don't need to sit around and cower in fear or start wearing face masks that likely do nothing. You do need to start thinking about how we should be better prepared.

Re:What's the big deal?

[True Grit]

H1N1 is known to be highly unstable. It has a tendency to pick up genes from other viruses.

Is it possible these properties will make for a more "dangerous" vaccine than others?

No, they will instead make for a less effective vaccine, because the virus *might* end up mutating faster than we can produce viable vaccines for it. Or it might just fizzle out and disappear, H1N1 is inheriently undependable in this regard, you can't predict its behavior, which is the problem.

What happened to you can actually happen to anyone after taking any vaccine (though normally its rare). Vaccines are in effect a way to give your body a very *weak* version of the virus so it will recognize it as an enemy if the real virus shows up later. Human variability being what it is though, sometimes a very weak version of the virus manages to gain a foothold despite it being weaker, and sometimes it is still enough to trigger a strong, perhaps overly-strong, immune system response.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Xest]

"Why is it people have to turn to some other equally idiotic extreme? Global nuclear was and "alien invasion" have never happened except in movies. Global disease outbreaks including flu that killed millions of people have happened with some regularity for hundreds, if not thousands of years. In all likelihood this whole thing will turn out to be nothing as H1N1 is unlikely to mutate into something more deadly. Putting it in the same category as "alien invasion" is just as stupid as all the fear mongering the media outlets love to do."

More appropriately, why is it that people have to overreact to what was clearly a non-serious comparison? All you needed to take away from my comment was that swine flu regardless of how likely it is to other major problems is not something I'm going to spend my time worrying about day to day because it's not that big a deal right now. If you take anything more away from it you are simply getting uptight about something that you've strung together yourself. Being equally pedantic though you might want to re-think that argument that nuclear war is unlikely to happen because it's never happened before whilst global pandemics are more likely because they have happened before. The two events are entirely unliked, and the history of nuclear weapons is far too short to start doing a statistical comparison of the two possible events. Nuclear weapons were about 25 years off even being invented when the last serious pandemic occured. FWIW, I do not believe little green men capable of invading our planet even exist.

"If we're close to a deadly flu outbreak, it's really already too late. We need to start developing techniques to get faster vaccines now, not just before it happens. If this HAD been the real-deal, a several month delay to make the vaccine is just too long. You don't need to sit around and cower in fear or start wearing face masks that likely do nothing. You do need to start thinking about how we should be better prepared."

Yes, but there are people whose job it is to do that. There's no point worrying the general public about it when there's nothing they personally can do other than be taught good general hygeine measures and sickness prevention measures in the first place such as not going into work, and working from home if you're ill as well as washing your hands, blowing your nose with something disposable like a tissue etc.

There is absolutely no point me worrying about it, because a) the odds right now are there is nothing to worry about, b) there's nothing I can do other than what I do anyway even if it was worth worrying about.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

The CFR might not be the main problem with this virus - even if it didn't mutate into a deadlier form when the second wave hits (or future pandemic situations)

The rate of transmission and chances of catching the virus are high due to it being a variant that is not easily fought off by the immune system in younger people due to not having proir exposure to this variant which had been mostly in animals.

So lots of people are going to get sick, and ths will increase in the next few months.

So companies will start to see mass absenteeism both from genuine cases and those not wanting to catch the flu or faking it.

In the present financial climate this could be the straw that breaks some smaller (and larger) companies backs, not to mention disrupting vital services.

The economic cost could be a far worse consequence than the fatality rate.

Re:What's the big deal?

[dimeglio]

It is also said that this strain causes much more severe reactions that the regular flu. I've heard of very high fever, vomiting, severe diarrhoea, fluid in the lungs, etc. which typically urges a visit to a health professional, hence the relatively accurate count of infected people. Although it is not lethal in most cases, a combination of a predisposition to illness probably increase morbidity of H1N1.

All we can do is get better at making vaccines quickly and all this will no longer be newsworthy.

Re:What's the big deal?

[icegreentea]

I think it was cause the virus initially killed an abnormally high amount of young adults (the strongest immune systems). It led to speculation that H1N1 killed via cytokine storms (like the Spanish Flu is thought to have), but we haven't quite gotten around to proving that. Also, in the earlier stages, there was this conflict between the official story, and all the stuff we were hearing from the ground. Mexican doctors and nurses saying that infection rate was like 4 times higher or something.

We basically talked a lot about it, and blew it all out of proportions. Now, regardless... there's still a chance of this blowing in our faces when fall/winter rolls around (same thing happened with Spanish Flu). So... it's not time to start laughing at this thing and calling it all a joke. It's certainly time to seriously question what our media is doing. But... well. Shooting the messenger won't make problems go away.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

May be your wife was one of the unlucky 0.4 or whatever %. One example does not refute the overall statistic, no matter how close to your heart it is.

Re:What's the big deal?

[DJRumpy]

You forgot to mention that they don't even use 'live' virus any more. The vaccines used today for flu are not 'dangerous' unless you have an egg allergy. They basically just prime your immune system so that it can properly recognize a flu infection and respond accordingly. They do not inject you with live flu virus.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Epistax]

Maybe it'll mutate a bit and swing back around killing nearly everyone who wasn't infected the first time because their immune systems won't recognize it in time. I'd go get myself infected just to be sure.

/jk
/who has the book rights to that situation anyway?

Re:What's the big deal?

[Cyberax]

Flu vaccines _do_ _not_ use a weakened viruses. They use _proteins_ from virus envelope, the don't contain viral RNA.

So it's not possible to get a flu infection from a flu vaccine.

Re:What's the big deal?

[ILuvRamen]

1 because CNN is retarded and 2 because nobody is already immune to it so anyone could catch it. Yeah, I know, that's a stupid reason to fear monger but they don't even need a reason at all so this is good for them. But in the meantime, I've got an idea how to vaccinate yourself. If you're in remotely good health, just catch it on purpose, stay home for about 3-5 days, get better, and tada, you've got much more T-cells against it than any vaccine will give you.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Vellmont]

More appropriately, why is it that people have to overreact to what was clearly a non-serious comparison?

I guess I don't agree that a well thought out response is an "over-reaction", or that it was clear your response was "non-serious". Your response sounded to me like a complete dismissal of the whole situation, which is equally foolish.

Yes, but there are people whose job it is to do that. There's no point worrying the general public about it

Much of the world is a democracy. Running a democracy involves a well educated populace so they continue to support funding for said people. If people don't understand why we fund this kind of thing, the "I was low low taxes!!!" crowd takes over.

I don't think we need to "worry" the general populace, I think we need to educate them. Explaining to people about potential threats might "worry" some people, but that's just the way the world works. Why you continue to think I'm talking about panic here I don't quite understand.

There is absolutely no point me worrying about it,

Worrying about things never really got anyone anything useful. Planning for threats, understanding them and overcoming them is what has increased our life span and made us healthier. Worrying about them has only caused some lost sleep.

Re:What's the big deal?

[True Grit]

look at all the fear mongering over bird flu and apocalyptic scenarios they told us to expect then

Strange, I don't have those same memories. H5N1 is very deadly, but can't transmit human-to-human, and the people I heard talk of it said only if it learns to move directly between humans do we need to get scared. It was the *media* that ended up hyping things, not the WHO.

If you want a real apocalyptic scenario then there's the idea that Swine flu both mutates to become worse

Actually, what the WHO is worried about is the H1N1 strain linking up the existing H5N1 strains in Southeast Asia, combining the H1N1's ease of human transmission, with the H5N1's deadliness. H1N1 is part avian after all, it has a history of mutating and combining with other strains. Is it *likely*? No one really knows.

I'll start worrying or even caring a bit more.

The WHO's doing that for you, so you don't have to. Don't blame them for doing their jobs, blame the media for always hyping everything beyond its actual importance/relevance.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

You forgot to mention that they don't even use 'live' virus any more. The vaccines used today for flu are not 'dangerous' unless you have an egg allergy. They basically just prime your immune system so that it can properly recognize a flu infection and respond accordingly. They do not inject you with live flu virus.

This is not entirely true. MedImmune's Flumist vaccine uses an attenuated, cold-adapted live virus. However, it is not injected. It is sprayed as a mist into the sinuses and causes a VERY MILD infection (typically a runny nose for a couple of days). Unlike the killed virus injections, it causes a full immune response because it is live virus and it is applied at the site where most people are first infected with the flu.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Xest]

"I guess I don't agree that a well thought out response is an "over-reaction", or that it was clear your response was "non-serious". Your response sounded to me like a complete dismissal of the whole situation, which is equally foolish."

Generally when people start mentioning alien invasions it's a good idea to realise they're not making a serious comparison ;)

"I don't think we need to "worry" the general populace, I think we need to educate them."

I'm glad we agree.

"Explaining to people about potential threats might "worry" some people, but that's just the way the world works. Why you continue to think I'm talking about panic here I don't quite understand."

I guess you missed my comment about the head of the WHO suggesting the whole of the human race is under threat? I'm not suggesting you're talking about panic, I suggested the WTO is talking in a manner that causes panic and it seems to be for little reason other than grabbing headlines and putting themselves in the spotlight. The media is often similarly irresponsible in this respect but this time round the WHO seems to be acting worse than the general media. Ultimately this degrades people's view of them so when there is a major problem and they need people to listen, people wont listen.

"Worrying about things never really got anyone anything useful. Planning for threats, understanding them and overcoming them is what has increased our life span and made us healthier. Worrying about them has only caused some lost sleep."

Exactly my point.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Xest]

"The WHO's doing that for you, so you don't have to. Don't blame them for doing their jobs, blame the media for always hyping everything beyond its actual importance/relevance."

Normally I would but as it was the director-general of the WHO that suggested the whole of humanity is at risk because of Swine flu I'd argue it's actually the WHO that's doing the hyping this time round, this is my problem with them right now. Even if you take that less explicitly and assume she meant the whole of humanity is at risk from catching it it seems to be a severe exageration, afaik even the 1918 Spanish flu still only infected 40% of the world despite how bad it was.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Ozlanthos]

I refuse to have any shots or other treatments until I am actually "sick". If I am a carrier, sorry dude, you might die but I doubt I will. The reason "pandemics" usually occur is due to OVER-POPULATION. Once people start figuring out that having millions and millions of little petrie-dishes concentrated tightly enough for a virus to play mutation-hop-scotch in, the better off we will be. We are biological organisms, and as such the same rules that apply to other populations of biological organisms apply to us!!!

Besides we could probably use a good culling or two. Between pandemic and war, I will choose pandemic 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. Pandemics are indiscriminate and take down rich, poor, black, brown, yellow, red, white, gay, straight, Jew, Gentile, Atheist, young and old. Wars tend to take out those fighting them and some collateral damage.,,,never those rich or privileged enough to escape them.

-Oz

Re:What's the big deal?

[daVinci1980]

Your response sounded to me like a complete dismissal of the whole situation, which is equally foolish.

A complete dismissal by the general population is likely appropriate, though.

You should be doing the same things you always do to avoid illness: wash your hands frequently, cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough, stay home when you're sick. If you're in a position where you're likely to encounter the disease (medical profession, travelling to areas that have seen high numbers of infections), then you should definitely study up on what you can do to promote general health (both others and your own).

It's wrong that the media cries wolf every time anything remotely "scary" happens, just like they did with Avian Flu, and just like they were doing a few months ago. It desensitizes the population in a very real way.

Re:What's the big deal?

[confused one]

But that's still 1.2 Million deaths in the US and 24 Million deaths world wide, at 0.4%. Are you prepared to deal with 1 in 200 people around you dying?

Re:What's the big deal?

[Cruciform]

There's a pretty good explanation of it on youtube by a fellow who goes by the name Thunderfoot.
It could use a bit more detail on zoonotics and how they become easily transmissible in human populations, but its worth showing to those family members and friends who say it's not a threat.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Cruciform]

Oops. Meant this one instead.

Re:What's the big deal?

[samkass]

It's not just that it could mutate and that it's more contagious... it's also peaking counter to almost any recent flu. The flu virus is packaged in lipids which tend to dissolve in heat, and aren't carried well in moist air. Add in some summer sun to sterilize surfaces and boost people's immune system with some vitamin D and you tend to get very little flu after March-April. We now have a virus that is peaking in June yet retains flu's ability to sicken and mutate, which implies that this fall could see a VERY BAD flu season. In fact, we're more or less tracking some of the deadliest pandemics for the spread of the virus. The saving grace here is that this vaccine doesn't contain some of the worst "deadly" flu genes from the big killer flus. But now that it's making its rounds through Asia and elsewhere, there is some fear it could absorb some of that. Imagine something as deadly as bird flu that is also more easily transmissible than any flu in decades... THAT'S why it's something to monitor. Not panic about, just be prepared for.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Goldberg's Pants]

Have you seen people with flu before I wonder? I've had it badly three times in my life. Once when I was a kid, once in my early 20's, and last year (late 30's).

In my 20's the virus attacked my heart and I still suffer issues today from the damage it caused.

Last year I was just exhausted by it.

The fact you've posted as an AC makes me wonder if you're telling the truth, but we'll say that you are.

Every disease will hit some people harder than others. Perhaps your wife has a crappy immune system. Where I am, of 252 cases, 2 have wound up in hospital, no deaths.

As for the supposed experts... Are you talking ACTUAL experts? Or the talking heads on the likes of CNN telling us the sky is falling?

Re:What's the big deal?

[True Grit]

Flu vaccines _do_ _not_ use a weakened viruses.

If you're right then somebody really needs to update this page. If this page is correct, and *most* flu vaccines are still made with inactive-virus or attenuated-live-virus methods, then what I said, and what the AC said in response above us are still true. There may be a new "animal cell" culturing method on the way, that you're referring to, but it hasn't taken over completely yet.

So it's not possible to get a flu infection from a flu vaccine.

But it is possible to get "sick", which is the word the OP used I believe, I was thinking of the over-reacting immune system situation, but you're right in that my explanation made it sound like you got the actual 'real' virus itself. You don't, but your body gets *enough* of the virus that your immune system *thinks* its really there and reacts accordingly. If the immune system over-reacts though, that can sometimes be almost as bad as getting the actual infection.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

3. Or we may get a mild extra flu, on top of the usual annual flu.

Less people died from H1N1 than the "normal" flu. That is also true for Mexico. Their medical system is just not that good.

In countries where the medical service is good, no one died and people got cured, except for those who were weak and sick before, and had other complications.

Don't panic.

Re:What's the big deal?

[h4rm0ny]

Besides we could probably use a good culling or two.

Leaving aside how you're likely to feel if someone you care about were killed by a pandemic, it probably wouldn't have the long term effect you anticipate. The usual response of human cultures to a wide-scale loss of life is breeding on a massive scale. The most effective means of reducing the population long-term appears to be a stable and prosperous society with effective education and opportunities for women. You can see the results in much of Western Europe. You get an ageing-population bubble, but that pops eventually. In comparison, wiping out 30% of the human race would have the same effect as a crash diet on an individual. A brief reduction followed by massive over-compensation. Look at the recovery from the two World Wars and the last pandemic if you want to see it in action.

Re:What's the big deal?

[h4rm0ny]

Normally I would but as it was the director-general of the WHO that suggested the whole of humanity is at risk because of Swine flu I'd argue it's actually the WHO that's doing the hyping this time round

Maybe you're misreading or whatever second-hand source you had was misreading it. Maybe by "whole of humanity is at risk" he means as opposed to "just Mexicans" etc. I.e. all countries could suffer from this because it's a pandemic. I don't know that this is what he meant, but it's a valid reading whereas "we are risking all of humanity" as the alternative sounds less likely coming from the WHO.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Xest]

Well here's the original article (a quick search for "Swine flu WHO humanity at risk" brings up plenty of other sources).

The quote in full from the article:

"She said action should be undertaken with "increased urgency".

She added: "It really is the whole of humanity that is under threat in a pandemic.""

I understand what you're saying, perhaps it's been misinterpreted, but the way it's phrased sounds quite alarmist, as I say in the best case it sounds like she suggested the whole of humanity is under threat of catching it, but again even that's false because as I mentioned previously even the 1918 pandemic only affected 40% of the world's population I believe.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Cyberax]

It's complicated...

First, a special strain of flu virus (A/PR/8/34) is combined with the target virus. The strain A/PR/8/34 is not very pathogenic for humans, but grows readily in eggs.

So there's really not even a trace of a target flu virus in vaccines.

Next, inactivated flu virus is filtered and purified (by centrifugation, chromatography, etc.) to remove nucleic acids, other viral material and all sort of cell debris. So for all practical purposes, flu vaccine does not contain live or even attenuated flu viruses.

In fact, flu vaccine is so non-immunogenic that special adjuvants are needed to boost body's response.

Re:What's the big deal?

[blackest_k]

Ok so flu can be pretty bad but then theres problems with vaccines too.

e.g 1976 http://www.capitalcentury.com/1976.html

So given a random chance of catching swine flu, which may not be that bad and having the vaccine which could as bad or worse which do you go for?

Personally as a diabetic I'm supposed to get a regular flu shot anyway, although I don't. This flu is supposed to be worse for the fit and healthy due to the bodies immune system going haywire trying to contain the virus, perhaps having a weakened immune system is better in this case.

I'm fairly certain I'm not going to go for the shot even if its made available and just take my chances.

So is there anyone on here, who can make an informed choice?

I freely admit i have no medical training what so ever.
I'm I just being cynical in thinking the big pharma companies are going to make out like bandits.

I wonder how karma will work for those on here thinking that wealth should buy them the vaccine?

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Your sig:

Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc.

What's the point of using a French quote on an English website?

Re:What's the big deal?

[AmigaMMC]

personally, I'll file that alongside worrying about global nuclear war and alien invasion.

You are not afraid of alien invasions? You gotta be crazy.
Maybe this virus was sent by aliens. HA! What do you think of that huh?

/me ducks under couch wearing tinfoil hat

Re:What's the big deal?

[syousef]

So far, this new strain is milder than a normal yearly influenza virus. But that was also true about the Spanish flu virus, the first two mutations that went around the globe. The third one was highly lethal and, sadly, 100% lethal to pregnant women.

I don't know where you got 100% lethal but at least that part of your post is incorrect. Here's a better source:

http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2008/04/02/youth-survey.html
"In the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, one study reported on 1,350 pregnant women who became infected; 27 per cent died from the flu. In the milder Asian flu pandemic in 1957, half the women of reproductive age who died from flu in Minnesota were pregnant."

So a pregnant woman would have had a 3 in 4 chance of surviving. Alarmist nonsense panics people and causes more harm than good.

Re:What's the big deal?

[professionalfurryele]

The problem probably wont be the mortality rate, it will be the morbidity rate.

Sure the number of people who die from the bacon lung wont be that different from seasonal flu, but the number of people who are simultaneously unable to work is a major problem for a pandemic. If half the medical professionals in a country are off sick at the same time it can be catastrophic.

I'm not particularly worried about the virus changing into something with a higher mortality rate. I worry a little in the same way I worry about asteroids smashing into the Earth. Not super likely but it is something to have in mind. I am worried what will happen to the economy if a third of the population has to take a week or two off work.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

Flu vaccines _do_ _not_ use a weakened viruses. They use _proteins_ from virus envelope, the don't contain viral RNA.

So it's not possible to get a flu infection from a flu vaccine.

But it is possible to come down with flu like symptoms, since the immune system will react to the protein the same as the flu. Some people mistake this for catching the flu.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Ozlanthos]

Well I did say a culling or two. Besides I'd like a pandemic that took out about 90%. While you may be right with regard to the bounce back effect, if that were to occur after the kind of tragedy I suggest, we would all be cross-eyed and buck-toothed bumpkins within two generations. Personally I would like it if your scenerio concerning a more effective reduction of population were to occur. Unfortunately between the media keeping us scared silly, the gov keeping us largely uneducated, under-paid, and religion urging us to multiply....I don't see that happening here anytime soon.

-Oz

Re:What's the big deal?

[dragonturtle69]

Lots of reasons listed here: "The difference with H1N1 swine flu is that the virus is almost exclusively targeting people under 65."

And Margaret Chan, quoted a bit more down on the page:

"We know that the novel H1N1 virus preferentially infects younger people. In nearly all areas with large and sustained outbreaks, the majority of cases have occurred in people under the age of 25 years.
In some of these countries, around 2% of cases have developed severe illness, often with very rapid progression to life-threatening pneumonia. Most cases of severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years. This pattern is significantly different from that seen during epidemics of seasonal influenza, when most deaths occur in frail elderly people. Many, though not all, severe cases have occurred in people with underlying chronic conditions.
Based on limited, preliminary data, conditions most frequently seen include respiratory diseases, notably asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, autoimmune disorders, and obesity.
At the same time, it is important to note that around one third to half of the severe and fatal infections are occurring in previously healthy young and middle-aged people. Without question, pregnant women are at increased risk of complications. This heightened risk takes on added importance for a virus, like this one, that preferentially infects younger age groups."

Now, whether any of this makes it more of a threat to humanity than what we normally get is a subject of popular debate, which means it gets talked about, which means it sells to talk about it more and create headlines mentioning it. No one mentions West Nile viurs much anymore, which had only 1, 356 reported cases in the US during 2008. But, there were 44 total, or 3.2%, fatalities, Maybe it is just what people want to talk about, since that sells advertising space.

The only notable part to me for H1N1 is how many cases are still in the Northern Hemisphere when we are nearly at Summer, FluTracker. I did not compare that data to other sites, or have find a baseline to compare, so it may just be normal.

Re:What's the big deal?

[dudpixel]

You don't need to sit around and cower in fear or start wearing face masks that likely do nothing.

This is something I have wondered about. What do those face masks actually achieve?

You're still breathing air, and the air you're breathing is still coming from around your face. Sure, it has to come from the gaps near your nose and possibly the gaps around your chin and cheeks, but its still more or less the SAME air you'd have otherwise breathed in if you didn't have the mask on.

On top of this, we all need to touch things that others have touched (door handles, etc) and we all need to eat. The mask will do nothing about protecting us from contracting germs via our hands...

But they do have the ability to make the wearer look like an idiot. So there is that. :-)

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

What?

The idea is that the mask filters out particulates in the air. The virus is spread by moisture droplets coughed or sneezed by infected people, and if you can remove those from the air you're breathing you're safe from infection.

From what I hear, the masks don't work. But the theory isn't unsound.

Re:What's the big deal?

[h4rm0ny]

Re: Your sig: Aide-toi, le Ciel t'aidera - Jeanne D'Arc. What's the point of using a French quote on an English website?

There are sigs around here that make less sense that are in English. Some people will understand it, some people will ignore it and some people will bother to look it up. I like it. It's fine.

H.

Re:What's the big deal?

[h4rm0ny]

Well I did say a culling or two. Besides I'd like a pandemic that took out about 90%.

So essentially a collapse of civilisation as we know it, then? Internet, agriculture, trade, healthcare, militaries - the works. I presume then, that you think you're positioned to cope with such a scenario. And I presume you think you'd be able to carry on with whatever productive activities you are currently doing whilst being part of a local organized militia, farming for food and dealing with a major urban to pastoral migration of the remaining population? I can't comment on whether or not you'd survive, but I can be fairly sure that both you and the rest of the species would be pretty busy for quite some generations just rebuilding society to actually do anything useful on a species wide-scale. Do you have any idea what such an event would do to our research and advancement of technology?

While you may be right with regard to the bounce back effect, if that were to occur after the kind of tragedy I suggest, we would all be cross-eyed and buck-toothed bumpkins within two generations

I don't see why. You're going to need to explain that. I'm guessing that you think it would be the result of breeding in a reduced gene pool? That's incorrect unless for some reason the survivors were all very closely related to each other.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

Oh no?
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/02/27/8560781.html

Re:What's the big deal?

[jujun]

"...the media keeping us scared silly, the gov keeping us largely uneducated,..." and obviously they were pretty successful. Saying "Pandemics are indiscriminate" is ignorant beyond words. Ever wondered why it is Mexico were most people are dying and not the US? The rich or privileged will always have best possible treatments and care available when people in third world countries will suffer the most, as there will be no surveillance or vaccines to stop the epidemic. Anyways, how is it that the "reason" behind pandemics is to cull the population when most viruses that actually kill humans are not "meant" to infect humans as their primary host? We are biological organisms and as biological organisms we try our best to survive. I bet cows would develop a cure for BSE if they could. "I refuse to have any shots or other treatments until I am actually "sick"." "Besides we could probably use a good culling or two." Just to show the connection and wishing you good luck.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

"alien invasion" have never happened except in movies.

Hahaha.

Yours sincerely

ZWu'BRRTZ 4H652XU N'ghTa'ff

Re:What's the big deal?

[Muad'Dave]

...H1N1 strain linking up the existing H5N1 strains

So that'll give us H6N2, right? Or maybe 5 * H-squared, N-squared? 8-)

Re:What's the big deal?

[Muad'Dave]

...die from the bacon lung...

You know, that sounds like a wonderful way to go.

He died of "The Bacon Lung."
Oh, he died happy, then.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Muad'Dave]

Are you prepared to deal with 1 in 200 people around you dying?

Only if I get to choose who lives and dies.

Re:What's the big deal?

[Anonymous Coward]

Can anyone explain why this virus is so different from all the others floating around? Why the panic?

It's a strain that is new to man - human populations don't have immunity against this particular, novel virus - they are naive.

Seasonal influenza viruses are strains that have been around for years. They were once pandemic strains, ie novel viruses that spread worldwide and against which human population then developed immunity.

They now lay around and keep mutating in a constant attempt to avoid (or so it is believed) human immunity in a process called antigenic drift. But people aren't entirely naive to those viruses - as they were when they first appeared and were pandemic influenza viruses; as they are today to the novel h1n1.

This h1n1 doesn't have the limitation of global resistance in human populations. Even though it's no more deadly than the typical seasonal influenza, the potential is entirely different.

Re:What's the big deal?

[GermMan]

I'll post again - with a newly created account and proper formatting/syntax :)

Can anyone explain why this virus is so different from all the others floating around? Why the panic?

It's a strain that is new to man - human populations don't have immunity against this particular, novel virus - they are naive from an immunity standpoint.

Today's seasonal influenza strains have been around for quite some time. They were once pandemic viruses, ie novel viruses that spread worldwide and against which mankind developed immunity.

They now lay around and keep mutating in a constant attempt to escape (or so it is believed) human immunity, by a process which is called "antigenic drift". Even though people aren't entirely naive to those strains - as people once were, when they first appeared and were pandemic influenza viruses; and as people are, today, to the novel h1n1 strain.

This h1n1 virus doesn't have the limitation of global resistance in human populations. Even though it's no more deadly in its current incarnation than the typical seasonal influenza, the potential is entirely different.

Re:What's the big deal?

[IorDMUX]

Pandemics are indiscriminate and take down rich, poor, black, brown, yellow, red, white, gay, straight, Jew, Gentile, Atheist, young and old.

I invite you to study the sad statistics of one of our current pandemics, AIDS, especially as it affects Africa.

Claiming that a pandemic will equally cull the ranks of rich and poor alike shows a very limited understanding of modern health care issues.

Re:What's the big deal?

[True Grit]

I understand what you're saying, perhaps it's been misinterpreted, but the way it's phrased sounds quite alarmist

Its not her job to tell everyone "everything's going to be ok", thats what politicians are for. It all boils down to how likely/unlikely you think a worst-case scenario is, and FWIW, I don't think her words were unnecessarily alarmist. If nothing else, the behavior of the 1918 pandemic (beginning as a mild strain but mutating within 6 months to a much deadlier form) justifies her not downplaying the current one.

, as I say in the best case it sounds like she suggested the whole of humanity is under threat of catching it, but again even that's false because as I mentioned previously even the 1918 pandemic only affected 40% of the world's population I believe.

Jeez, now thats some serious nitpicking there.

If a lethal pandemic broke out and began killing humans by the tens of millions, that would definitely have a negative impact on *everybody*, not just the ones who got sick and/or died. It would be a bad day for everyone, so referring to "all of humanity" in regards to a global catastrophe makes perfect sense.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[JaredOfEuropa]

As far as I know, vaccines are made in chicken eggs, and takes some time to produce

I know most people here do not bother to read articles before commenting, but you could at least have bothered to read the ./ summary...

Pandemic?

[LordKaT]

It's not a pandemic until Madagascar fucking closes everything.

Re:Pandemic?

[Anonymous Coward]

It can't be too bad...TFA has a picture of the drug label

Novartis, an Umbrella Corporation subsidiary

Oh shi...

Re:Pandemic?

[drinkypoo]

It's not a pandemic until there's a vaccine that someone can make some money with.

Baxter bigpharma ...

[Anonymous Coward]

Virus Vaccine Contamination
http://www.healthfreedomusa.org/?p=2191
http://www.naturalnews.com/025760.html

Trust Baxter, and your govn't, take the vaccine as they force you to.

Scariest

[Smivs]

A Lion, a Polar Bear and a Pig were having a chat, and the conversation came round to how scary they were. The lion said "When I roar, people up to half a mile away run in terror!" The Polar Bear said, "That's nothing, when I growl people on the next island fear for their lives." "Bah!" said the pig, "if I sneeze, half the world shits itself!"

Quite frankly

[Anynomous Coward]

with all the hype surrounding this, one might be tempted to start considering the possibility that some big pharma in search of the next blockbuster could have designed the virus, the vaccine, the initial test release in a remote village and subsequent dispersal in airports, and the fud campaign together.

Re:Quite frankly

[jperl]

I don't think think they did. Otherwise I would be legend.

Re:Quite frankly

[John Hasler]

Wouldn't it make more sense to speculate that they are spreading prions that make people fat? There's far more money in heart disease and diabetes. The hole in your conspiracy theory is that vaccines are not very profitable.

Re:Quite frankly

[rve]

with all the hype surrounding this, one might be tempted to start considering the possibility that some big pharma in search of the next blockbuster could have designed the virus, the vaccine, the initial test release in a remote village and subsequent dispersal in airports, and the fud campaign together.

Not feasible. Although it has been a popular theme in both Sci-fi and conspiracy theories, technology is still not advanced enough to design a virus. It is unthinkable that a laboratory would have advanced this far ahead of the rest of the scientific community in complete isolation and without ever publishing or filing for patents.

It will almost certainly be possible one day, but not any time soon.

Re:Quite frankly

[executivechaos]

I really don't understand why your post was modded 'flaimbait'...because the chances of the situation to describe being the case are quite high. It amazes me how much 'faith' people have in these bio-engineering and pharmaceutical companies to act only the in interest of the health of humans everywhere...before profit. For goodness sake...they make money from sickness and disease ...why wouldn't they do something like this?

Re:Quite frankly

[yourassOA]

Filing a patent for a deadly disease that you intentionally infect the public with would be kind of stupid. People might figure it out. Funny no one has figured out that the flu always hits right after the shots. How can they predict what flu will be around in several months unless they have a crystal ball or some inside knowledge?

Re:Quite frankly

[Anonymous Coward]

Because it's seasonal?

Re:Quite frankly

[Anynomous Coward]

Well, it doesn't have to be designed from raw nucleotides. Just put a mix of a few existing strains into eggs, cultivate, check for mutations/reassortments and proceed with those. Easy as cake (made from the remaining eggs :)

Think about it: vaccine makers are already cultivating the virus. It's a very small step from there.

Re:Quite frankly

[Anonymous Coward]

Filing a patent for a deadly disease that you intentionally infect the public with would be kind of stupid.

You don't file a patent on a disease. You file a patent on the technology or technique used to be able to engineer a virus with the degree of control needed to accomplish this.

Re:Quite frankly

[Anynomous Coward]

Not profitable ? Maybe. 4% of 94B$ is just small change in today's world.

Re:Quite frankly

[rve]

Well, it doesn't have to be designed from raw nucleotides. Just put a mix of a few existing strains into eggs, cultivate, check for mutations/reassortments and proceed with those. Easy as cake (made from the remaining eggs :)

Think about it: vaccine makers are already cultivating the virus. It's a very small step from there.

Yeah, easy as cake, especially the lengthy double blind human trials to test the various strains for virulence and deadliness to humans.

A conspiracy theory, no matter how far fetched, will always be the most credible explanation because after all history has shown that new strains of influenza never ever just spontaneously form in nature. The government HAS to be behind it. Or North Korea. I suspect the Illuminati myself though, because ultimately they are pulling the strings.

Re:Quite frankly

[Anynomous Coward]

Yeah, easy as cake, especially the lengthy double blind human trials to test the various strains for virulence and deadliness to humans.

Why would double-blind tests be necessary ? It's not as if the field tests would require FDA approval. Anyway, scariness is enough; deadliness is overkill.

A conspiracy theory, no matter how far fetched, will always be the most credible explanation because after all history has shown that new strains of influenza never ever just spontaneously form in nature.

As if anthrax, measle-infected blankets or pestilenced corpses have never been used as weapons either.

Replace conspiracy by a diffuse set of parties that have a largely unconnected interest in a certain outcome, and you'll see that the fud that's being spread was not all that unwelcome. To go from profiting from fud to intently infecting people is farfetched, but not impossible. The 9/11 "conspiracy" (AQ being the conspirators) also looked like a farfetched movie script before it happened.

Was H1N1 spread on purpose ? Very, very unlikely. Could it have been ? Definitely.

Re:Quite frankly

[Anonymous Coward]

Keeping such secret from getting out would be impossible.

Such an undertaking would require executive approval to sign off on the funding requirements in addition to the number of research staff that would need to be hired for a project of such undertaking/ The corporation would be taking a huge risk, and everyone involved would bear huge personal risk of criminal liability.

Innoculatation

[Anonymous Coward]

I've been inoculating myself by eating pork all the time: pork chops, spare ribs, barbecue, lots of Thai food with pork, etc...

Been doing great so far!

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[maxume]

At the moment, vaccinating people in the U.S., Canada and Mexico makes the most sense, the prevalence is highest here (3/4 of all infections that the WHO is tracking...).

Countries like India and China can make their own (and have the resources to work in their regions if they want to).

Is the cure worse than the disease?

[Anonymous Coward]

The last time there was a swine flu panic, 1 person in the US died of the flu, 25 died of the vaccine that was rushed out and more than 500 were paralyzed by it. What are the odds it's going to happen again? No thanks, I'll sit this round out.

Re:Is the cure worse than the disease?

[Anonymous Coward]

Yeah, cause, nothing has advanced in the past half century.

Why Why Why?!

[XPeter]

People get the flu EVERY SINGLE YEAR, H1N1 is no different. The WHO and the media make a big deal about this because the drug companies asked for their bailout too. It's quite simple; make the world panic (H1N1 being a pandemic is blasphemous) and everyone asks the pharmacudical companies to start pumping out drugs and the cash starts rolling in. I mean, look how much Novartis's stock has gone up http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NVS. Don't feed the pig, please.

If you want something to panic about, panic about the millions of people each year who die from easily treatable illnesses such as Malaria.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[maxume]

Malaria is decreasingly treatable. There are simple steps that can lower the chances of infection though.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[that IT girl]

Because the pharmaceutical industry can scare everybody into paying them billions of dollars. Yes, billions.
God, it's so nice to find someone else who doesn't buy into the bullshit.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[maxume]

If only you were 15 again, you could visit him in his mother's basement.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[Anonymous Coward]

"the announcement comes just a day after ..." coincidence? doubt it. I'm guessing they had this a while, and waited. "Novartis to the rescue!"
So- maybe they could have stopped it from becoming pandemic- maybe not- depends on how soon they made it and how cheap^H^H^H^H^Hexpensive they wanted to make it.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[True Grit]

People get the flu EVERY SINGLE YEAR,

Folks get a *different* strain of influenza every year.

H1N1 is no different.

Yes, it is. It is a different strain of H1N1 that we haven't seen before, a combination of parts of four other strains of influenza A.

The WHO and the media make a big deal about this

The WHO is making a big deal about it only because it is a new strain that hasn't been seen before, and its spreading rapidly, thus fewer people will have any built-in resistance to it. And this particular category of influenza A has a nasty history of mutating quickly.

The media make a big deal about it because its news, but inevitably they end up over-hyping it since they're trying to fill 24/7 with 'interesting' news, and there just isn't enough to do that.

(H1N1 being a pandemic is blasphemous)

No. You just don't know what the meaning of the word 'pandemic' actually is. Hint: the number of casualties to the disease has *nothing* to do with its pandemic status. Look it up, it doesn't mean what you think it does.

millions of people each year who die from easily treatable illnesses such as Malaria.

Please define what you mean by "easily treatable". Malaria has no silver bullet, and the only available treatments which work consistently are really just preventative measures and are relatively expensive. And since the parasites behind Malaria are evolving resistance to the usual antimalarial drugs, for the most part, once you get it, you're cooked.

Malaria is a highly *intractable* problem that occurs in the poorest parts of the world, which makes dealing with it nearly impossible. That's why its a chronic problem, its not something that would just go away if the whole world threw some money at it. Nobody knows *how* to get rid of it.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[XPeter]

Please define what you mean by "easily treatable". Malaria has no silver bullet, and the only available treatments which work consistently are really just preventative measures and are relatively expensive. And since the parasites behind Malaria are evolving resistance to the usual antimalarial drugs, for the most part, once you get it, you're cooked.

Malaria is a highly *intractable* problem that occurs in the poorest parts of the world, which makes dealing with it nearly impossible. That's why its a chronic problem, its not something that would just go away if the whole world threw some money at it. Nobody knows *how* to get rid of it.

Your kidding, right? If people actually put effort into treating diseases like malaria and AIDS they would go away. The problem is, it's just not profitable for the pharmacudical companies. I mean, who wants to help a third-world country when they won't get anything in return. It's all about the money.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[drinkypoo]

millions of people each year who die from easily treatable illnesses such as Malaria.

Please define what you mean by "easily treatable". Malaria has no silver bullet

Pssssst Olive Leaf Extract

Whoops, can't patent that. People have been using it for thousands of years. You think Indians raised a lot of flak when attempts were made to patent Neem? Just see what happens with Italians when you try to patent olive trees. P.S. The anti-malaria drugs you can take to not get it in the first place tend to give you homicidal dreams. Not a joke. Some people report dreams of committing general violence including rape and torture, not only specifically murder. Scared of that.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[areusche]

Why was this modded flamebait? The OP has a valid point!

Re:Why Why Why?!

[areusche]

The drug you are referring to is Lariam, the trade name for Mefloquine http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lariam. There are many many more drugs available to combat against malaria then this that do not have this type of dangerous side effect.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[that IT girl]

Or the olive leaf, which has been effective for years and years, is natural, and has no bad side effects.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[True Grit]

Your kidding, right? If people actually put effort into treating diseases like malaria and AIDS

Wait, AIDS is easy to stop too? Are you nuts?

Re:Why Why Why?!

[True Grit]

Whoops, can't patent that.

The poor countries who need this "cure" the most aren't interested in patents. If it actually worked they'd use it and ignore any patent claims, just as Africa used generics for AIDS drugs instead of paying the higher costs demanded by the drug companies.

No, I suspect the reason this is only listed on herbal sites as a remedy and not mentioned on any medical sites is that like much folklore, its often repeated... and still wrong.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[XPeter]

If all the drug companies actually put effort into stopping it (or atleast controlling it), AIDS would start to diminish.

Re:Why Why Why?!

[Antarius]

But if you're allergic to Penicillin, avoid it like... Well, H1N1!

My father now suffers from an auto-immune condition that nearly killed him last year (when his kidneys and lungs started to fail) after taking that shit for a prolonged time.


Natural != Safe.

Don't believe me? Go mung on a heap of white willow bark for a few months...

I don't need a damn vaccine!

[Doug52392]

I live in Madagascar, you insensitive clod!

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[philpalm]

The prevailing main argument is who has the money to pay for the vaccine. If India or China can pay for it then let them have some. The highest bidder usually wins, despite your bias to send it to only certain countries.

Flamebait?

[Anonymous Coward]

Apparently the WHO is moderating Slashdot too.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[Anonymous Coward]

Just some more background: http://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com/Industry-Drivers/Novartis-gets-487m-for-US-cell-culture-flu-vac-plant
Some people say Crucell is the hottest pharma stock at the moment (because they make money licensing PER.C6).
I have some too.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[maxume]

How do you know what my bias is?

Early vaccine

[epifreak]

My only concern is that the vaccine is developed against the H1N1 virus (likely neuraminidase) that is currently circulating. It does have high human-human transmission rate, but mortality is 0.5% so far, so most of the cases are mild. What is WHO scared of is this virus becoming more virulent, by say mixing with H5N1 - mortality rate 60%, thus mutating and rendering the vaccine ineffective. At least so far based on structural and bioinformatics analysis the active site of neurmainidase (this is where Tamiflu binds and prevents spread of viral particle) is unchanged, so Tamiflu will be effective for now.

Re:Early vaccine

[mpe]

My only concern is that the vaccine is developed against the H1N1 virus (likely neuraminidase) that is currently circulating. It does have high human-human transmission rate, but mortality is 0.5% so far, so most of the cases are mild. What is WHO scared of is this virus becoming more virulent, by say mixing with H5N1 - mortality rate 60%, thus mutating and rendering the vaccine ineffective.

If such a "hybrid" virus were to be so different from either of its parent strains that a vaccine would be ineffective could you easily tell how dangerous to humans it might be? Killing its host is completly against the interests of any virus.

Re:Early vaccine

[ColdWetDog]

If such a "hybrid" virus were to be so different from either of its parent strains that a vaccine would be ineffective could you easily tell how dangerous to humans it might be?

Not easily, except by the very likely large scale obvious 'experiment'. There are models for different infectivity states of various hybrid influenza viruses, but I personally don't know much about them and a quick consulting of the oracle wasn't really helpful.

Killing its host is completly against the interests of any virus.

True enough, but the virus doesn't know that.... The only way it "finds out" is by creating the strain and seeing what happens. If somehow, the virus kills all the host off, then oops, Epic Fail for the virus. Start over. But even a 60% mortality rate won't wipe humans off the earth. Captain Tripps it aint. There is likely a long time scale balance between human population and influenza virus "population", but it is going to be a very complicated interaction that will have more variables than human population.

Re:Early vaccine

[RDW]

'If such a "hybrid" virus were to be so different from either of its parent strains that a vaccine would be ineffective could you easily tell how dangerous to humans it might be?'

No, not easily. Both virulence and infectivity are hard to predict (though we have some knowledge of what sequence elements have been associated with particularly nasty flu viruses in the past, e.g. from looking at samples of the 1918 pandemic strain). We wouldn't know a dangerous new strain had emerged until, as in the case of the current strain, clinical cases started to appear.

'Killing its host is completely against the interests of any virus.'

Well, a mild infection that spreads widely is obviously a more effective strategy than a severe infection that can be contained. But the flu virus has managed to have it both ways in the past. Even the 1918 virus (also H1N1) only killed a small minority of those it infected, but its increased virulence over seasonal flu and its ability to spread worldwide resulted in an estimated 50 million deaths. And in a sense, we're still seeing the effects - H1N1 may well have made the jump into domestic pigs around the time of the 1918 human pandemic (Influenza A was first recognised as a swine illness at that time, and H1N1 strains were isolated from US pig populations in the 1930s). Now one of its distant descendants is back in the human population.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[TOGSolid]

5 bucks say this vaccine causes the virus to mutate and turn into something far worse than it originally was.

Role of Vaccines vs Anti-Flu Drugs

[betasam]

Using the new In-Cell growing technique many companies seem to be coming up with vaccines in a shorter period than earlier. Medicinenet has an informative article on Flu Vaccines and immunization candidates, and goes on to say why they are required. This is a good read to understand why vaccination is being given importance here. The 1918 "Spanish" Flu epidemic Virus which is very similar to the recent outbreak was re-created in a laboratory in 2005 by Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger and colleagues at AFIP. Comparison with Avian flu strains led to the conclusion that Human Flu Virus strains are derived from Avian flu virii.

Among young people and children Flu vaccines claim to be 70%-90% effective, while this drops down to 30%-40% in people aged over 65 who may have other secondary complications. Hence the scale of vaccination required for the present outbreak (which has been repeatedly noted for not being as lethal as the 1918 Flu strain) may be entirely different covering only those in a risk category. More stress is on drugs that help in combating the Virus in an infected individual. These are usually amino-acid chain suppressors like Tamiflu. There has already been mobilization and distribution of the drugs to combat such an outbreak. The WHO has done a recent donation of drugs to Nigeria. This is however related to continued support of a H5N1 outbreak since 2006.

The role and importance of the Vaccines that would be available is not yet certain. It seems that the stress is more on treatment. Insofar stress on prevention without the involvement of Primary Medical care personnel. Only those who suspect infection have been requested to visit quarantine or medical facilities for treatment. The W.H.O's present stand with the Flu Virus has been a direct result of criticism during the second widespread Avian flu H5N1 attack incidents in 2006. Attention is being given to Avian Influenza as a pandemic because it leads to complications and secondaries making it difficult to fight other diseases with stronger morbidity. -- No Greater Friend, No Greater Enemy! (Lucius Cornelius Sulla)

Mandatory vaccinations....

[Anonymous Coward]

roll your sleeves up..it's a coming.

Re:Mandatory vaccinations....

[Anonymous Coward]

Don't touch your sleeves and pick up your guns. The Revolution is coming.

In the USA anyway... you know, that place where regular people have guns?

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[maxume]

Like Smallpox and Polio? And other flu vaccines?

Or are you scare-mongering based on the fact that it was developed differently?

Or maybe shooting for humor?

Made in cells?

[johannesg]

Amazing! Isn't there anything the Playstation 3 cannot do? ;-)

Re:Made in cells?

[Chees0rz]

Run Linux...

oh wait...

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[seriousthinker]

5 bucks say this vaccine causes the virus to mutate and turn into something far worse than it originally was.

And I bet you'd want this kind of research banned, right?

If people like you had had their way, we'd still be suffering from smallpox.

anonymous null

[Anonymous Coward]

perhaps a man made virus?

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[Chees0rz]

I think GP was thinking along the lines of vampire zombies... (I am Legend / Resident Evil)

I know I was!

Re:Swiss...

[Tubal-Cain]

When the /. article came saying that the WHO declared swine flu a pandemic, my reaction was: "It's still around?"
That's how little buzz it's getting here.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[dilvish_the_damned]

Although your probably both saying the same thing. Sadly.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[bertoelcon]

5 bucks say this vaccine causes the virus to mutate and turn into something far worse than it originally was.

Only 5 bucks? If you really wanted to do that on /. it has got to be worth it.

Unless of course you are talking about an animal that has a buck, like a deer, then that's totally worth it.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[Anonymous Coward]

Look out! He's standing behind you - watching you type!

The WHO?

[Anonymous Coward]

The WHO needs donations again?

SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu - it seems that people are finally learning to take the things The WHO says with a grain of salt.

Anywho, I had Swine Flu and as flu goes it is not particularly bad, but I can believe that people in lower socioeconomic circumstances can die from it. It causes your upper airways to constrict. So if I didn't have a supply of antihistamine for my allergies on hand, I could probably have suffocated from it too.

I think that there is no need to make massive amounts expensive immunizations for this thing, treating the symptoms with antihistamine is good enough.

Re:Swiss...

[Goldberg's Pants]

Twitter was insane when H1N1 first broke. Now it's pandemic... Crickets.

Just wait a couple of months and the scaremongering bandwagon will set off again. Just in time for the companies to sell millions of vaccines for a flu that, thus far, has presented with symptoms equal to or lesser than the regular flu we see every year.

252 cases where I am. 2 required hospitalization. No deaths.

And WOW! The companies have a whole lot of time to test the safety and efficacy of these vaccines don't they! If this were, say, a heart drug or whatever being rushed to market (and heart disease still kills more people every year than flu ever will*) they would never be allowed to rush it to market this quickly and would need to spend at least six more months faking the tests, I mean doing the tests.

Yet most will happily line up and be beta testers for this vaccine.

The best thing we can do to prevent the flu is COUGH AND SNEEZE INTO OUR ARMS! Seriously, do not cover your mouth with your hands. You cough or sneeze into the crook of your elbow. You don't touch anyone with that, and it contains the germs.

(* - Do not come back with the Spanish Flu pandemic. Medical science, hygiene etc... have ALL comes on in leaps and bounds since then.)

Whatever. Glad to see someone has used the "money" tag on this story. The shareholders of the companies working on the vaccine must be damn near pissing themselves with excitement at the dividend they're going to receive.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[Goldberg's Pants]

Given flu traditionally excels in cold weather, I'm not sure swine flu, particularly with the other issues in Africa, are an especially big concern.

And saying North America has a functioning healthcare system.... BWAHAHA! Canada, yes. The US? HAHAHA! You should try telling that to the American's I'm friends with who have medical problems.

One friend the other day pointed out that if she injures herself, she's better off getting into her car and deliberately crashing it as her deductible is half that of her HMO.

As I said above, there's sure going to be a lot of testing of the safety and efficacy of this vaccine isn't there! I mean it's probably 2-3 months before CNN and friends begin the hype machine to sell vaccines. 3 months.

Russian Roulette in needle form.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[Goldberg's Pants]

You mean the flu vaccines that are proven to not work? Seriously, do your research. And I mean proper research, not research from anyone financially benefiting from the vaccine. The flu vaccine is unreliable at best.

HPV vaccine is being seriously questioned as well currently, for the record.

Yep, vaccines are awesome!

And it leads to a zombie uprising, I'm ready!

Re:Swiss...

[jonbryce]

I was still aware it existed, but that might be because I know someone who caught it.

SARS == ATRAC

[Anonymous Coward]

Yep, what with all those tens of thousands infected worldwide, and almost no casualties that can't be attributed to other factors (air pollution in Mexico City, eg) it's turning out to be a real fake^W pandemic. Better get those Novartis stocks pumped up^U life-saving vaccines out to needy souls. Never mind that the flu vaccine doesn't work, and this one probably isn't any better...
Seriously this decade's "pandemic" list is looking like Sony's list of proprietary format failures. There's a new one every year.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[h4rm0ny]

So you're betting money that the Apocalypse will happen and society collapse, a lá I Am Legend ? Heh! I'll take that bet. You lose, you pay. I lose, neither of us will be around to collect and money will be worthless anyway. :D

Of course they have a vaccine

[petrus4]

They would have made sure they had a vaccine ready before they released the virus.

1. Create virus.
2. Create vaccine.
3. Release virus, and then generate as much fear and hysteria about said virus as possible, using organisations like the WHO to beat the drum for you, despite the fact that the mortality rate of said virus amounts to statistical line noise.
4. Some months after the release of the virus, when a few people have died, and the "health authorities," have managed to stir public hysteria up to a fever pitch, announce that you have a vaccine for the virus, and enjoy being hailed as heroes and public saviours.
5. Mass produce the vaccine, and sell it to anyone who wants it.
6. Profit.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[rbrausse]

why bother with RTFA or RTFS if some of us even don't RTFC?

and yes, I agree: the weather is really bad

Did anyone actually read the article?

[djdevon3]

The article said nothing about production of a successful swine flu vaccine... It's never even been tested in humans so there's no way to call it successful in the first place. This entire post isn't factually accurate and should be removed from the internet.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[maxume]

So by research, you mean more Jenny McCarthy and less CDC?

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[Anonymous Coward]

pump and dump gtfo kthx

Biology as technology

[dokebi]

Reading the comments so far makes me sad because:
1. Most people are clueless about how much biology we know.
2. Most people don't appreciate how effectively we can use that knowledge for our own good.

Thanks to modern DNA sequencing, we were able to sequence the entire virus in a few days. Because scientists have sequenced thousands of other viruses, they were able to compare it and come up with its composition. With the DNA sequence, scientists were able to reproduce the protein coating which allows them to make an effective vaccine in a few months.

When the next iteration of the virus comes, we'll be able to repeat the above literally in a few weeks. As far as I can tell, the era of pandemic viruses are over.

Watching slashdotters talk about this subject is almost like watching car mechanics talk about computers--mostly clueless. And some of you even believe in *creation*. How would you feel about car mechanics making IT policy?

FYI

[pjt33]

It doesn't affect your main point about mortality rate, but this statement:

In fact, outside of the Americas, despite thousands of cases, no one has died at all.

ceased to be accurate on the day you posted it with the death of a Scottish lady.

Re:FYI

[Xest]

Yes, so I heard last night. I wondered at the time whether I'd jinxed things for us Europeans!

Sounds like she had other complications though - giving birth prematurely whilst infected by it so it's still yet to take anyone healthy outside the Americas even if the fact it's taken anyone at all is still quite tragic.

It'll be interesting (and again, tragic) if deaths outside the Americas become even more prominent and if they start occuring in healthy people at all or whether it'll be weeks again before someone else succumbs to it outside the Americas. I'm suprised places with lower healthcare standards outside the Americas (i.e. China?) haven't seen more deaths yet which is partly what leads me to think it's not too much to worry about still.

For the lazy.

[Smivs]

re "aide-toi le ciel t'aidera" ( sig ), I did bother to look it up. It translates as "Help yourself (and) Heaven will help you". Or, if you can't be bothered to help yourself, Smivs will, if he's in a good mood !

Re:For the lazy.

[h4rm0ny]

Then I hope my antiquated French put you in a good mood because there never seems to be a shortage of people out there determined to go straight to the last resort. ;)

Regards, :)
H.
(Nice Moon photos, btw).

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[Abstrackt]

I know most people here do not bother to read articles before commenting, but you could at least have bothered to read the ./ summary...

Judging by the timestamp, he was probably just trying to get first post while giving the impression he knew what he was talking about. Looks like he failed on both counts.

Just another flu...

[DrYak]

252 cases where I am. 2 required hospitalization. No deaths.

Indeed, if you look at the numbers death rate seem to be around 0.2% in most developed occidental rich countries, and only higher in poorer regions.
It's high, but not "OMG! We're all gonna die"-high.

Do not come back with the Spanish Flu pandemic. Medical science, hygiene etc... have ALL comes on in leaps and bounds since then.

Which seems to be confirmed by the above distribution of numbers.
- Rich country usually have better access do medecine, more places and personal in hospitals, etc. and have low death rate (their are also the country which will buy drugs and vaccines en masse as part of their pandemic plan - and the pharma companies will be happy to sell to rich customers anyway).
- Poor country haven't gotten as much better than 1912 Europa as richer country did. And they have a higher swine-flu mortality. (they also won't be able to afford as many drugs and vaccines and aren't an interesting market for drug companies anyway).

The best thing we can do to prevent the flu is COUGH AND SNEEZE INTO OUR ARMS! Seriously, do not cover your mouth with your hands. You cough or sneeze into the crook of your elbow. You don't touch anyone with that, and it contains the germs.

You're joking, but part of the Swiss pandemic-readiness plan includes advices to :
- Use disposable paper hand-kerchief
- Cover the sneeze (using said paper hk)
- Wash hands regularly
- During social interactions, avoid hand-to-hand contact and avoid staying within sneezing range of each other.

Indeed, basic hygiene definitely helps stopping viruses spreading.

Glad to see someone has used the "money" tag on this story.

"Politics" would could become appropriate too. Pharma compagnies aren't renowed for their ethics and I that some of our swiss companies would be tempted to try influence USA's stance toward our banks.

Re:The only problem now is quantum and distributio

[Muad'Dave]

Doctors are surprised that the 'Swine Flu' has persisted into the spring and summer, seeing that cases are still popping up into mid-June. Something is not typical regarding this virus. The real threat is that a much more virulent variant of this strain will emerge this fall, killing a higher percentage of its victims.

Using grandest terms prematurely...

[Anonymous Coward]

So H1N1 is a "pandemic" and the WTC site is "ground-zero." Now what will we call it if we actually have a massively fatal global disease rampage or a real nuclear explosion some day?