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US House May Pass "Cap & Trade" Bill

jamie found this roundup on the status of the Waxman-Markey climate change bill, which is about to be voted on by the US House of Representatives. (The article notes that if the majority Democrats can't see the 218 votes needed for passage, they will probably put off the vote.) The AP has put together a FAQ that says, "[The bill, if passed,] fundamentally will change how we use, produce and consume energy, ending the country's love affair with big gas-guzzling cars and its insatiable appetite for cheap electricity. This bill will put smaller, more efficient cars on the road, swap smokestacks for windmills and solar panels, and transform the appliances you can buy for your home." The odds-makers are giving the bill a marginal chance of passing in the House, with tougher going expected in the Senate.

26 of 874 comments (clear)

  1. Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by russotto · · Score: 5, Insightful

    And energy rationing, by this name or any other, spells death for the economy. They might as well call it the "starve and freeze" bill.

    1. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by EastCoastSurfer · · Score: 5, Informative

      You're right. This bill should really be called "A Tax Increase For All Americans." The estimated tax revenue the government expects to extract from the population from the passage of this bill is huge.

    2. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by goldspider · · Score: 5, Funny

      This can't be true. Obama promised that taxes would not go up for 95% of Americans.

      --
      "Ask not what your country can do for you." --John F. Kennedy
    3. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by russotto · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Where did you find them explaining that everyone will have to ration energy? What does starving have to do with energy? It's further down the slope of environmental consciousness vs the economy but you are doing no one a service by claiming it is utter self-annihilation when it's not that bad.

      What do you think the "cap" part of "cap and trade" means? Capping CO2 emissions means capping energy use, in the absence of significant carbon-free sources -- and since neither nuclear, solar, nor wind, nor any other carbon-free source is in any position to take up the slack, things look pretty grim. And the caps are designed to be ratcheted DOWN.

      As for what starving has to do with energy... uhh, you realize it takes energy to grow and distribute that food, right? And I don't mean just solar.

    4. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by debrain · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This bill should really be called "A Tax Increase For All Americans."

      Sir:

      Responsible energy use is only a tax on the current generation. Future generations will have the benefit of this tax, including more oil, less pollution, less natural catastrophes, better environmental technology, and a more responsible culture. Indeed, the "free" oil we're burning today is a tax on future generations, who will pay the price for our selfish, short-sighted behaviour. I call the existing scheme of state-environment relations as the "fuck the kids" model.

      As a technical note, it's not strictly a tax because it is simply the assignment of a property value to a currently hidden cost (i.e. on future generations), it permits valuation and bartering of that now hidden cost (i.e. it's "property", somewhat like intellectual property), and it can be avoided through technological innovation. The brilliance is that it is creating the facade of a marketplace, where the costs to the participants in the marketplace are designed to coincide with the harms to the environment. It's actually quite fascinating and brilliant, in my humble opinion. Let's hope it proves valuable.

    5. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by Anynomous+Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      He's not lying. Thanks to hyperinflation, soon every murkan may make a million or more.

      --
      I'm not a coward by any name.
    6. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by anonicon · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Eh, sorry, but Americans elect candidates based on the quality of their lies. Obama's were better than McCain's, and his delivery was smoother.

      Between your documented instance and the fact that the dumbest politicans are the ones who tell the explicit truth regardless of blowback, if you want to spread the blame, look no further than a public that isn't willing to be honest with itself and its expectations.

      Chuck

    7. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by ArcherB · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I'm amused by Americans who think they are being "taxed to death" but have no problem spending 40 percent of their incomes for corporate profits, which despite some other conventional wisdom, does not come back to the economy.

      Really? Where does it go?

      In a technical sense, you are correct. Corporate profits do not come back to the economy because they NEVER LEAVE THE ECONOMY! Corporate profits are shareholder profits. Shareholders are citizens that spend money or save for retirement (meaning that they will spend it later).

      Profits, by definition, are what make the economy grow! Allow me to explain. Let's say a carpenter buys a piece of wood for $1.00. He carves it into a pair of clogging shoes, which takes him one hour. He sells those shoes for $10.00. He made $9.00 profit. Where did that extra $9.00 come from? Where does it go now? The extra nine bucks (profit) is how economies grow. He took $1.00 worth of wood plus an hour of his time and turned them into shoes worth $10.00. He has increased the economy by $9.00 at the cost of 1 hour.

      Now what does he do with his profits? Same thing everyone else does; He spends them. He eats, pays bills, pays for his home and so on. That's what drives the economy.

      --
      There is no "I disagree" mod for a reason. Flamebait, Troll, and Overrated are not substitutes.
    8. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by Loadmaster · · Score: 5, Insightful

      My problem with that WSJ article is that it assumes energy production will not change before 2020. Basically, the CO2 output of a energy production plant will remain constant. The point of the legislation is to encourage (or force if you prefer) a switch to renewable energy and/or CO2 sequestering. If we do the green revolution in earnest we'll get a lot of our energy from green sources which will fall well under the CO2 limits thereby not succumbing to the tax hits. Today's conventional energy production facilities should be working on CO2 sequestering and by 2020 (when the really strict CO2 limits come into effect) they should be under as well. Energy moguls don't want to change because it costs them money. Average Americans don't want to change because they don't see why they should, don't really understand the effects of the legislation and don't want to pay a cent more. Both want things to go back to the way they were. That is not ever going to happen. If you want cheap energy we need wind, solar, nuclear, tidal, algae and carbon sequestering. We need more sources of energy. Killing this legislation doesn't make that need go away.

    9. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by theascended · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Let's hope it proves valuable.

      Lets hope we see the smallest amount of value before the American economy completely implodes.

      I would love to debate the merits of individual policies all day long. Between the stimulus, bailouts and healthcare we've already got a hole that can't be filled that was dug by policies that were short sighted and badly engineered in the first place (yes, some from Bush). Sure, they all have redeeming principles in them, but the actual implementation leaves much to be desired. All of that aside, Obama's biggest problem is one of scope. You can't quadruple the national deficit in one year and add nearly $5 trillion (number from the CBO) to the national debt in as many years and then go on to (at a minimum - again numbers from the CBO & WSJ) double the energy costs for the AVERAGE American... We've already passed the legislation necessary to completely destroy the economy... this will just help it come faster.

      Obama and his administration seem to only consider the ideal situation... the one in which their policies work out exactly as they intended... unfortunately they aren't and will continue to go awry, cap&trade included.

      I, like you, see our destruction of the environment as a debt to future generations and actions must be taken to protect the world for the future, however, please consider the fact that our children won't have a future if we've spent out economy into oblivion. If you are ok with the United States going up to 25% unemployment again, people by the tens-of-millions living on the streets on in shelters, and your children having little to no education (or an advantage really) to speak of all for the protection of the environment, then I guess such considerations need not be made. I, however, will give my votes and support to people who are willing to find a hybrid between prosperity and environmentalism.

    10. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by AlexDV · · Score: 5, Funny

      He told the truth. Taxes will go up for 100% of Americans.

    11. Re:Cap & Trade = Energy Rationing by vandon · · Score: 5, Insightful

      He also promised that there would be change:

      He still supports not investigating the warrant-less wiretapping.

      Despite having a majority in congress, Gitmo still isn't closed.

      After promising all non-emergency bills would be posted to be read on the gov website, only 2 have been before he signed them and then only for 1 day in a non-searchable format.

      He said that we have to bail out the automakers and not let them file bankruptcy for the good of the US, he only saved the CEOs and investors, then let them file for bankruptcy anyway.

      He promised that there wouldn't be any new taxes on the middle or lower class, but most of the bills he's pushing amount to direct taxes on everyone. Cap and Trade=Fuel tax, National healthcare=tax hike for any employed American with health insurance, Raising capital gains taxes=tax hike on anyone with a 401k or IRA account.

      The only thing that's changed in the whitehouse is that people stopped believing Bush's lies.
      <sarcasm>At least we still have "hope"</sarcasm>

  2. "insatiable appetite for cheap electricity." by bugeaterr · · Score: 5, Funny

    The problem of too much cheap electricity is about to be solved.

    1. Re:"insatiable appetite for cheap electricity." by goldspider · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And nothing beats a recession quite like artificially jacking up the cost of energy for everybody.

      --
      "Ask not what your country can do for you." --John F. Kennedy
  3. Re:No real impact by Shanrak · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Well that right there is where the problem inherently lies. This is just a plain old tax, but instead of seemingly coming from the government, most people gets the impression that it is from the 'evil' corporations. Damn those car makers and electric companies raising the costs! If the government wants to generate revenue, RAISE THE TAXES and suffer the consequences, don't try to shift blame to corporations.

    --
    This post may or may not contain cancer causing materials.
  4. National Energy Tax by Jebinator · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Why not call it what it is? A tax increase for the entire nation based on how much energy you use. The EPA finally released a censored study last night that pointed out how much the EPA has been ignoring the real science of the matter. The EPA's 'endangerment' study was completely politicized. One of the e-mails from a superior to the employee who had worked at the EPA for 35 years and wanted the study released: "The time for such discussion of fundamental issues has passed for this round. The administrator and the administration has decided to move forward on endangerment, and your comments do not help the legal or policy case for this decision... I can only see one impact of your comments given where we are in the process, and that would be a very negative impact on our office." Look it up, you'll be disgusted as I am after hearing how many times people have said "The science is settled" to try and pass this extra tax.

  5. Creating Chaos for Profit by Orne · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Put a cap on the emissions that industry can output, then create a market where companies can trade the right to pollute. Cap and Trade.

    The big question is, what is this Change going to do to the US economy?

    1. Create asymmetry between US industry and global industry for future growth. Why should I build my factory in the USA and go through the regulations when it just became more profitable to build it overseas?
    2. Existing price structures are scrambled. Estimates from the power industry say that once you add in the costs of Cap-and-trade, this will make Coal more expensive than Natural Gas fuel, completely flipping the fuel makeups of almost all electricity production markets. Since Coal is used as fuel for about half of the energy production in the US, this will be disasterous to the wholesale markets. Since corporations always pass costs down to consumers, expect to see your retail electric bills go up by 5-15%, or an average of $700-1400 per family per year.
    3. Who exactly is benefitting here? Estimates are that about $50 to $300 billion is getting ready to change hands, with the government running the auction for the "rights" to pollute. It essentially puts extra costs on industry that uses polluting fuels, and the claims are that some of the money will become subsidies to cleaner/greener energy producers. Since zero-emission technology is currently 3x as expensive as fossil based technologies, there will not be any savings to the public, hense the comparisons to a "tax" for the public.

    While all of cap-and-trade appears very poorly thought out, Pres. Obama actually fully intended this to happen, as interviewed almost a year ago. So, hold on to your wallet, change is coming...

  6. Re:No real impact by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    No real impact

    I think you couldn't be more wrong.

    We've already seen with $4 / gallon gas prices, people will dramatically shift the types of cars they drive. Cap and Trade could raise the cost of gas well above this. Only the uber rich will be driving SUV's.

    Raising the cost of electricity is inflationary in nature and will raise the cost of everything. We saw this already when oil and natural gas skyrocketed to unseen levels only a year or so ago. Given this fact, the hardest hit will be on the poorer side of the scale as even the smallest increases in costs take a much larger percentage of income. There will be a lot less wide-screen TV's being purchased, and most of them being in the homes of high-middle income earners.

    What citizens haven't learned is that Washington politics are beholden to their lobbies (both sides of the isle) and this idea of cap and trade is scandalous right to the core. What good is cap and trade on global warming when all you do is tax manufacturing and jobs out of the US (which has some emissions controls) to other other countries (that have little to none)? You won't be doing the world any favors by pushing factories to another part of the world. You'll just be hurting your own country by destroying it's economy and probably destroying the world faster since those other countries allow you to pollute more as well as all goods will now have to be all shipped back to the places they use to be manufactured.

    This has laws of unintended consequences all over this and your ignorant idea that "this will change nothing" couldn't be farther from the truth.

    This will be the longest 4 years in America's history.

  7. Re:Peak Oil necessitates energy conservation by maxume · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There isn't anything particularly crazy or stupid about using the cheapest available resource. Peak oil mongering is often based around the implied assumption that the decline will come in the form of a shock, requiring us to immediately replace all of the cheap oil in one fell swoop. Reality suggests that the price of oil will go up as it becomes more difficult to extract, leading to the gradual replacement of oil consumption over time (and each time someone comes up with a price viable replacement, it reduces the demand for the remaining oil, further smoothing out the transition).

    --
    Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
  8. Solution by SuperKendall · · Score: 5, Funny

    Obama promised that taxes would not go up for 95% of Americans.

    Congratulations. You are no longer an American, but a Citizen Of The World (tm).

    Here's you new tax bill.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  9. Re:Horrible Idea by jcr · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Sorry you're stupid enough to believe that mentioning fox is some kind of magic word that lets Obama off the hook.

    Take a look at the scoreboard: he claims that he's entitled to violate the right of habeus corpus. He promised an end to the DEA raids on medical marijuana dispensaries; what he actually delivered was a one-week hiatus. He has made no move to investigate (let alone prosecute) anyone for torturing prisoners. He's done precisely squat about his campaign promises regarding gay rights. He appointed a member of the Federal Reserve board of governors as the secretary of the treasury.

    As for the economy, he's continued and compounded all of Bush's mistakes. Bush was a failure as a businessman; Obama never even attempted any endeavor where he had responsibility to investors, employees and customers.

    Face it, the man is an empty suit. He's Mitt Romney with a better-sounding script in the teleprompter.

    -jcr

    --
    The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
  10. Re:No real impact by sumdumass · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I think your missing the forest for all the trees.

    When gas prices raised and you think you saw habits change, most of those habits were actually reflections of people losing their jobs from the economy going stagnant because all disposable income was going into the gas tanks.

    There is a point in which people cannot trim their gas usage any lower. Going to and from work is mandatory if you want to keep a job, regardless of what anyone thinks of public transportation, it's non-existent in many if not the majority of places.

    Surcharges work only when you don't care about the impact it has on the people. Losing their jobs, their homes, choosing between food and gasoline, none of that is an acceptable option to me but it's exactly what happened when gas went to $4.00 a gallon so that you could see the change in habits.

    You need to get over yourself and look at what is actually happening.

  11. It'll screw us all and achieve nothing. by dfenstrate · · Score: 5, Insightful

    While I don't expect a Chomsky fan to have any reasoning abilities found outside of a college sophomore with a chip on his shoulder, I'll respond anyway for other readers.

    Whether or not we have a 'right' to cheap energy is besides the point. The bill will be completely inneffective while gutting our economy.

    1) China and Russia are laughing at us. This act will artificially drive up the price of cheap-carbon based fuel in the US, reducing US demand. Reduced US demand will lower the global price, making oil and coal MORE attractive options for the rest of the world. Their increased use will more than offset any possible reductions we could do, with this bill or any other.

    2) Folks like you are willing to spend billions of dollars and eviscerate our economy on the trillion dollar scale in a futile and arrogant attempt to turn back the clock. None from your side has ever talked about how we would deal with increased global temperatures, how we might mitigate any rising sea levels, or what the potential upsides to global warming are.

    (These first two points are valid regardless of whether or not you're a global warming believer)

    3) The climate is always changing, even before we started emitting massive amounts of carbon or anything else. Go look up climate history and see that the best reconstructed information we have, in recorded human history and prior, shows the climate has been significantly warmer and significantly cooler than it is now.

    The term 'global warming' lately has even been replaced with the term 'climate change.' This should tip off any prudent observer that it's all a blatant move to grab money and power. The climate is always changing, and as such, in the 'Climate Change' political environment, will always serve as a convienent excuse to expand taxes and the suffocating regulatory state.

    The problem isn't carbon emissions, the problem is folks like you who think they're infinately wiser than their fellow man and the free market, and see no problem with grasping all the money and power they can in order to force their good intentions on the rest of us.

    And don't you dare talk to me like I favor large smoke stacks bellowing thick black smoke over American cities, and dumping nasty chemicals into rivers. We solved those problems decades ago and I'm fine with that sort of regulation. Now we've got arrogant do-gooders on a mission with nothing good to do, and we'll all suffer for their hubris if not stopped.

    --
    Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms should be the name of a store, not a government agency.
  12. YES!! by MinistryOfTruthiness · · Score: 5, Insightful

    They sunk that low a long time ago. It's just that the people who should have been calling them on it were too caught up in their Bush-bashing frenzy to care. They were just happy that the media was so biased in their favor. It won't be long until we see the real fruits of a media that doesn't question authority, and instead revels in a sycophantic love fest with said authority.

    The media should be questioning Cap and Trade, Health Care Reform, voter fraud, and yes, even presidential eligibility (if only for the purpose of laying the issue to rest) with the same zeal that they showed for mocking Bush every time he mispronounced a word. Mispronounced words don't ruin lives and economies, but these things just might. Where's the in-depth analysis? I don't see it -- for or against. Where's the investigation into winners and losers? We sure heard enough about "big oil" during the Bush years.

    The Freedom of the Press was to safeguard their ability to question authority. What they're doing now is betraying that sacred trust and, in my opinion, endangering it by allowing the government to empower itself further and further without resistance or investigation. When the government decides that a free press is too dangerous to allow, the media will probably not have the influence necessary to fight it. They're already at record low levels in viewership because people just don't care about them anymore. Most people see their propaganda for what it is and are getting their news elsewhere -- from blogs if need be -- because at least those sources are genuine and up-front about their biases. The recent "infomercial" and White House-controlled media events are only a further indication of the future path of independent (non-government-run) media.

    YES, real, unbiased reporting is just about dead, replaced by the new generation of pundit-reporters who thinks that it's their job to convince people rather than report the facts of the matter. I'm just waiting for these "reporters" to start crying that their business is dead, when it was them that held the pillow over its face.

    --
    "I know that every word that man just said is true, because it's EXACTLY what I wanted to hear." -- Space Ghost
  13. 1/4 of energy for 1/4 of GDP by tepples · · Score: 5, Informative

    Complete the following sentence: The USA needs 25% of the world's energy because...?

    ...the GDP of the United States (13.84 trillion USD) is close to one-fourth of the world's GDP (54.62 trillion USD).

  14. Re:Peak Oil necessitates energy conservation by Itchyeyes · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The complaints against this bill have nothing to do with the spirit of it and everything to do with the structure of it. Taxes, any taxes, have distortionary economic effects. Some of these effects can be good, such as discouraging the use of carbon emitting fuels. Others are bad, such as making goods and services more expensive for consumers. Ideally, the government would enact a carbon tax and offset the tax by reducing personal income and corporate taxes proportionally. This leads to a marginal cost increase on burning fossil fuels without increasing the overall cost of goods and services to consumers and businesses.

    But this is not what's happening. Instead of viewing this as an opportunity to enact beneficial legislation, our congressmen have instead opted to see it as an opportunity to increase government revenue. The pitfalls to the proposed system are numerous. As previously mentioned the first drawback is that consumers and businesses will immediately see prices on nearly all products go up. There has been discussion of granting permits to selected firms for free at the beginning. This is a fools bargain. See here for a detailed explanation why, but the net effect of such legislation is to essentially pass the proceeds from a carbon tax directly to the firms granted the permits. Not to mention that it opens up the entire system to immense potential for corruption, as permits will very likely be traded as political favors to campaign contributors, and it puts the government in the position of essentially selecting which companies to grant a massive competitive advantage to.

    Yes carbon emissions and dwindling fossil fuels are serious problems, and we as a nation need to take steps to mitigate their effects. But this bill is quite possibly the worst was to do so. It incorporates nearly every unnecessary drawback to such legislation. It's a poorly written bill from top to bottom that accomplishes as little as possible. And it will pass, because the average American is too blinded by the promise of such a law to notice how absolutely terrible the details of it are, and any congressman who wants to be reelected would be a fool to vote against it.