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Are Information Technology's Glory Days Over?

Posted by timothy on from the incentives-attract-takers dept.

Hugh Pickens writes "The NY Times reports that computer science students with the entrepreneurial spirit may want to look for a different major, because if Thomas M. Siebel, founder of Siebel Systems, is right, IT is a mature industry that will grow no faster than the larger economy, its glory days having ended in 2000. Addressing Stanford students in February as a guest of the engineering school, Siebel called attention to 20 sweet years from 1980 to 2000, when worldwide IT spending grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 17 percent. 'All you had to do was show up and not goof it up,' Siebel says. 'All ships were rising.' Since 2000, however, that rate has averaged only 3 percent. His explanation for the sharp decline is that 'the promise of the post-industrial society has been realized.' In Siebel's view, far larger opportunities are to be found in businesses that address needs in food, water, health care and energy. Though Silicon Valley was 'where the action was' when he finished graduate school, he says, 'if I were graduating today, I would get on a boat and I would get off in Shanghai.'"

7 of 333 comments (clear)

  1. Nice speaking engagement by Overunderrated · · Score: 5, Funny

    In other news... Thomas M. Siebel is no longer being asked to come speak at colleges.

  2. What would that do by cyber-vandal · · Score: 4, Funny

    if I were graduating today, I would get on a boat and I would get off in Shanghai

    So you'd be in a foreign country with no visa, no local language skills and no experience in any professions. I'm guessing his business is going downhill too.

  3. Sigh by XPeter · · Score: 5, Funny

    It seems as if the only tech job left is SysAdmin; I wonder why that spot is always left open...

    --
    "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has it's limits" - Albert Einstein
    1. Re:Sigh by Informative · · Score: 5, Funny

      Theres not much glorious in SysAdmin job actually. Most sysadmins are underpaid, underrespected and rarely loved, but still our love for the technology (or sufficient amounts of single malt after hours) keeps us doing our thing and keeping the industry running.

      That should be modded "poetic", or something.

  4. Re:Obvious by linhares · · Score: 5, Funny

    The industry is stablizing for those that are general programmers.

    Oh, is it? I missed that memo.

  5. Re:Tehnology evolution goes in streaks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Evolution and transformation in technology doesn't happen on a linear time line. It goes in streaks, followed by times where the previously disruptive technologies retrench and normalize. That lasts until the next transformative technology comes along.

    Do you get paid by the buzzword?

  6. Re:Obvious by mehrotra.akash · · Score: 5, Funny

    Out of curiosity, which languages are these? I've been writing commercial software for 15 years. I try to learn a new language each year (ruby in 2006, php in 2008, python in 2009). But I currently have very little idea what "more safe" or "less safe" mean when describing a computer language. Any pointers?

    the safer languages have no pointers.....