Are Information Technology's Glory Days Over?

Hugh Pickens writes "The NY Times reports that computer science students with the entrepreneurial spirit may want to look for a different major, because if Thomas M. Siebel, founder of Siebel Systems, is right, IT is a mature industry that will grow no faster than the larger economy, its glory days having ended in 2000. Addressing Stanford students in February as a guest of the engineering school, Siebel called attention to 20 sweet years from 1980 to 2000, when worldwide IT spending grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 17 percent. 'All you had to do was show up and not goof it up,' Siebel says. 'All ships were rising.' Since 2000, however, that rate has averaged only 3 percent. His explanation for the sharp decline is that 'the promise of the post-industrial society has been realized.' In Siebel's view, far larger opportunities are to be found in businesses that address needs in food, water, health care and energy. Though Silicon Valley was 'where the action was' when he finished graduate school, he says, 'if I were graduating today, I would get on a boat and I would get off in Shanghai.'"

Comments

Obvious

[sopssa]

It's just obvious. The reason for IT's growth during late 90's and early 2000's was because it was new, great technology. Now its getting common.

In Siebel's view, far larger opportunities are to be found in businesses that address needs in food, water, health care and energy.

This doesn't really make sense. IT has lots of opportunities too. Its true that "sure ways to get rich" times might be over, but its not like the other indrustries have those anymore.

Re:Obvious

[linhares]

You're right on mark. Of course there are diminishing returns for those working on "classical" areas, like sysadmins, or IDE development, etc. But that does not mean that the industry as a whole is stabilizing; that's bullshit: we have nothing close to AI, we are just starting the überphone revolution; we are just entering the high-bandwidth computing era with 1080p, GPGPU for all, etc; there are whole new frameworks of interaction in the web, like html5 (and the idea of openGL in the browser is popping up), Adobe Air, etc., and things are improving in each of these areas.

Let's not forget that computing is now accepted as a new way of doing science--going beyond experiments and theorizing (and way beyond what we can do with mathematics in complex, highly interacting multi-agent systems. Data mining is exploding; just take a look at Freakonomics and there you have it: a hotshot economist who does nothing but interesting data mining.

Then along comes this suit and brings this stupid false dichotomy: because there is demand for other stuff, like food; demand for IT is stabilizing?

I am from Brazil (thank you for your sympathy) where global demand for food will probably benefit our economy (and hurt other industries like IT, due to a rising currency), but seriously, WTF? The only news here is that this dude cannot reason very sharply and shouldn't be invited again.

Re:Obvious

[SerpentMage]

No IT is actually mature. And with a mature industry there are less opportunities.

BUT, what also can be said is that without IT there is no industry. IT is at the heart of every industry, and hence the focus has changed. Namely you would focus on the industry and make sure that you know IT.

So if you were to seek out a niche in energy, good for it, but you better know how to use a computer, and potentially write a program.

And if you are going to do IT, you better learn a programming langauge that can be applied to a specific industry. For example I am in the financial industry. And I am not having a hard time looking for work. Why? Because I am act as a junior trader. I know how to place trades, watch the market and manage my positions. And on top of it I can write all of the data mining routines that our hedge fund needs.

Re:Obvious

[SerpentMage]

>Data mining is exploding; just take a look at Freakonomics and there you have it: a hotshot economist who does nothing but interesting data mining.

Yes, but what was he first? A computer programmer or an economist? He was an economist first who happened to learn how to use a computer. That is the way that the industry is shifting.

The industry is stablizing for those that are general programmers. And what is opening are specialized niches of people who understand the business and the computer. As I work in a hedge fund I cannot imagine any fund these days not having quants or algo-programmers at their disposal. Guess what I did about 4 years ago? I switched from being a general programmer to a specializing quant/algo-programmer.

If I had to advise somebody today I would say learn a field first, and then make sure that you can write the code in that field. That is the best combination. Could you first learn the code and then the field? Well sure you can, but business will prefer the other guy first. After all most companies and people in the field don't really care about the code anymore. After all most of the code these days is written in "very safe" languages where it is hard to shoot yourself in the foot.

Re:Obvious

[SerpentMage]

I disagree here...

You have chemical engineers, mechanical engineers, electrical engineers and system engineers. Very different and very specialized. Is there some overlap? Sure a bit, but generally very unique and very different. I am a mechanical engineer and that means anything that moves belongs to me. Civil engineers ensure that nothing moves, and system engineers ensure that the project moves.

But there is nothing wrong with specialization since with specialization we have a mature industry and we are moving forwards.

Re:Obvious

[linhares]

The industry is stablizing for those that are general programmers.

Oh, is it? I missed that memo.

Re:Obvious

[Znork]

The reason for IT's growth during late 90's and early 2000's was because it was new, great technology.

Actually I'd say it was because the cost/benefit ratio came within reach for a large number of applications that could benefit from IT solutions. Computers had already existed for a long time, but replacing phones, typewriters and hordes of analysts, accountants and other 'manual-IT' workers with computers that'd do the same job for a vastly higher price wasn't very useful.

This doesn't really make sense. IT has lots of opportunities too.

Indeed. IT for ITs sake has never been much more than a scam. IT is something you use to address various needs. In, for example, health care, where IT is vastly underutilized (systems to assist medical diagnosis, to prevent misdiagnosis, track drug interaction to a larger extent, computer assisted surgery, etc, etc). If other fields have opportunities, IT has opportunities in those fields.

Growth rates may become more tied to specific industry segments, but that's because most of the current useful things that 'everyone' was doing, communications, bookkeeping, typing and presentations, wont experience the same mass-affordability and cost/benefit threshold traverse anymore. But the fields that do grow are likely to also do so through IT improvements, in everything from food and water logistics, farm automation, healthcare IT, smart energy usage/production, etc.

Re:Obvious

[rossifer]

If I had to advise somebody today I would say learn a field first, and then make sure that you can write the code in that field. That is the best combination.

This approach to resume construction is limited to a (potentially very small) subset of the software development jobs in the market, and is therefore riskier than keeping your general development skills sharp and learning new domains as needed.

Could you first learn the code and then the field? Well sure you can, but business will prefer the other guy first.

This assertion is interesting. I think there's more of a blended balancing of concerns than you're thinking about, and in my experience, knowing how software needs to be developed to work in the real world (whether embedded, desktop, multi-tier, SAAS, whatever) is the really hard stuff to teach, where the relevant business details are usually pretty straightforward. Again, in my experience, being expert in a kind of software is of more importance than the specific domain, though having experience in both aspects of a particular job will obviously be better than being experienced in only one.

In your case (and here's where I think the confusion lies), you're not doing the same variety of "stored data shuffling" that most of the rest of us do, your code is much more analytical and algorithmic. It's quite possible that you're actually doing what a CS degree prepares BSCS graduates to do (extremely unusual in my experience). That means that your "kind of software" is algorithms, so being an expert in that kind of software development IS the more general skill for you. I would personally label that set of skills as distinct from the specific application domain (fixed income, market predictors, risk analysis, etc.).

Further, I absolutely think you're being short-sighted if you're not keeping up to date on other aspects of software development so that if demand for your current skills declines, you can still return to the larger market of software developers. In late 2002, as I was looking for a job in a crap market, I sent applications to both coasts (New York and Los Angeles) feeling that I could interview strongly for jobs in finance or in the various kinds software being developed in LA. I got offers from both coasts and I'd like to think that it was because I successfully argued that my fundamentals were strong and I could quickly get up to speed on anything that was missing.

I have no idea what's behind Siebel's statements. In my continuing experience as a software developer and as someone who's hired software developers, he's completely full of it. I suspect that, like many others who hire software developers, he's frustrated by the price he has to pay for highly skilled people (the 10x developers) and he's just venting. He's entitled to do that, of course. I'm just as entitled to ignore him.

After all most of the code these days is written in "very safe" languages where it is hard to shoot yourself in the foot.

Out of curiosity, which languages are these? I've been writing commercial software for 15 years. I try to learn a new language each year (ruby in 2006, php in 2008, python in 2009). But I currently have very little idea what "more safe" or "less safe" mean when describing a computer language. Any pointers?

Re:Obvious

[mehrotra.akash]

Out of curiosity, which languages are these? I've been writing commercial software for 15 years. I try to learn a new language each year (ruby in 2006, php in 2008, python in 2009). But I currently have very little idea what "more safe" or "less safe" mean when describing a computer language. Any pointers?

the safer languages have no pointers.....

Nice speaking engagement

[Overunderrated]

In other news... Thomas M. Siebel is no longer being asked to come speak at colleges.

What would that do

[cyber-vandal]

if I were graduating today, I would get on a boat and I would get off in Shanghai

So you'd be in a foreign country with no visa, no local language skills and no experience in any professions. I'm guessing his business is going downhill too.

Re:What would that do

[koxkoxkox]

Why is it moderated as troll ? It is NOT good advice to tell people : "China is where the business is, go there and you'll be rich".

Think about the reasons why a company would want to hire you instead of a local engineer : you don't speak mandarin well, you don't understand the culture, you often ask for a bigger salary... Some people do really well in Shanghai, but it is not easy.

Re:What would that do

[hairyfeet]

While this is true, the simple fact is IT will die a slow death, just as our manufacturing and auto manufacturing has. Why? Free Trade is a lie. Your company can't compete with a Chinese one, because we don't allow you to poison us and fill our air, water, and land with toxins, yet thanks to 'free trade" you are supposed to. You can't compete with an Indian who pays only 20K for a Master's degree, yet thanks to H1-B and "free trade" you are supposed to pay off your 100K in student loans and survive on the same wages he does.

The IT industry will be gutted, just as so many others before it, because our treasonous lawmakers keep taking bribes from foreign nationals and multinational corporations while spouting off about "free trade" but it is all a lie. The corporations will simply give the IT jobs to their H1-B slaves or if not allowed to import more slaves will simply move to places like India and China, where they can pay a pittance and pollute all they want. Yet they will be given the same treatment as those who actually pay their taxes and manufacture here in America. Wake up and realize free trade is a lie! Notice how they will label this and anything that actually supports hiring Americans "protectionist"? Yet countries like India and China would never allow this kind of crap, they are too nationalistic to fall for it. India is building their own Aerospace and defense industries now so they won't have to import from countries like us.

Anyone who goes into IT now is simply a fool. They are a fool because they will never be able to compete against the Indian and the Chinese, yet thanks to "free trade" they will be expected to, and to live on their wages. Free trade is a lie.

Sigh

[XPeter]

It seems as if the only tech job left is SysAdmin; I wonder why that spot is always left open...

Re:Sigh

[Keruo]

Because you need to have certain personality to become great SysAdmin. You cannot be too introvert, nor extrovert. You need to be social enough to provide sufficient local tech/application support to the rest of the staff, and still "geek" enough to handle the more technical aspects of the job.

In a sense, good SysAdmin is like successful project manager, you must schedule tasks and prioritize them, if possible allocate tasks to jr. sysadmins. If done properly, IT becomes invisible in most organizations. (and you have more time to read slashdot)

Patience is also a virtue. If you can tolerate stupid users and explain the same thing 10 times over, you will succeed.

Theres not much glorious in SysAdmin job actually. Most sysadmins are underpaid, underrespected and rarely loved, but still our love for the technology (or sufficient amounts of single malt after hours) keeps us doing our thing and keeping the industry running.

Re:Sigh

[Informative]

Theres not much glorious in SysAdmin job actually. Most sysadmins are underpaid, underrespected and rarely loved, but still our love for the technology (or sufficient amounts of single malt after hours) keeps us doing our thing and keeping the industry running.

That should be modded "poetic", or something.

whatever business, IT will be there

[tommeke100]

> businesses that address needs in food, water, health care and energy

guess which field in these businesses will address those challenges? the Information Technology field is my guess.

Siebel sucks....

[LordKazan]

Well considering his creation - siebel - is one of the biggest steaming piles of crap i've ever seen... why would i listen to him?

Re:Siebel sucks....

[SoupIsGood Food]

If you work at Siebel, you wear a tie, and if you interact, at all, with anyone outside the company, a suit and tie. There are standards about facial hair, permitted jewelry (no piercings unless you're a woman), etc, etc, etc. The dress code is joyfully and rigorously enforced on the programmers and IT staff. There are also very strict codes of conduct - no nerf wars, no toys in your cube, punctuality rules (no coming in at noon, no working past five without asking your manager's permission, etc.)

Siebel is a good businessman, but he hates the IT industry, he hates the people who work in it, and wishes it was more like the insurance industry or something. This sort of speech from him is no surprise.

Tehnology evolution goes in streaks

[HangingChad]

His explanation for the sharp decline is that 'the promise of the post-industrial society has been realized.'

Evolution and transformation in technology doesn't happen on a linear time line. It goes in streaks, followed by times where the previously disruptive technologies retrench and normalize. That lasts until the next transformative technology comes along.

Just because we're in a phase of technology normalization doesn't mean it's going to stay that way. I think he's taking kind of a short view of tech history.

good riddance

[speedtux]

Siebel is absolutely right: IT's "glory days" are over. And good riddance, I say: the spectacular growth of IT has attracted all the wrong people and stifled real innovation. And "all the wrong people" includes people like Siebel himself.

If there is less of a get-rich-quick mentality, maybe people can return to focusing on innovation and long term planning again.

Re:good riddance

[pelrun]

Exactly - he's only talking about people with "entrepreneurial spirit", i.e. those people who only care about getting as filthy rich as possible, as fast as possible, and not about working in an industry they enjoy. If they all decide to piss off to China then good luck to them.

Re:good riddance

[elnyka]

Exactly - he's only talking about people with "entrepreneurial spirit", i.e. those people who only care about getting as filthy rich as possible, as fast as possible, and not about working in an industry they enjoy. If they all decide to piss off to China then good luck to them.

Your definition of "entrepreneurial spirit" is very, uhmmm, strange to say the least. It is as if "getting as filthy rich as possible" and "working in an industry they enjoy" were somehow mutually exclusive. They are not.

As surprising as it might seem to you, it isn't a black and white thing. The most successful entrepreneurs are those who make it big in doing what they enjoy. And entrepreneurial spirit is not necessarily driven by the desire of (what some ideological tards consider as) obscene financial success. If you are a good entrepreneur and do something that you like well, financial success will almost inevitably follow.

Surprising, I know!

Go Biotech, young IT programmer!

[CuteSteveJobs]

I'm glad someone has the balls to say it: Universities are still pumping out IT graduates into an already crowded job market. It's like these kids have shown up to the California Gold Rush after all the gold has gone. IT has well and truly jumped the shark. There will still be jobs, but not enough to support the hordes of unemployed IT people out there. The parties over. Sorry you didn't score, but it's time to go home anyway.

But fear not, because Uncle CuteSteveJobs has a backup plan for you: Biotech. Bioinformatics is a new are and lets even little old you try and crack the genetic code. Hunt through DNA. Discover proteins. Build new drugs, all on your PC. Open source your discoveries, or sell out to Big Pharma.

You'll need to learn a bit of Chemistry, Biochemistry and Bioinformatics. Take heart: It's said Bioinformatics is closer to IT than it is to either of the former. Think of it as learning another language. That .NET isn't exactly cutting it these days, is it?

You'll be curing people and doing far more to help the world. And it's a lot more useful than doing another useless social networking website. Let me help you get started:

1. Download Chimera (It's free!)
https://www.cgl.ucsf.edu/cgi-bin/chimera-get.py?file=win32/chimera-1.3-win32.exe

2. File > Fetch by ID > PDB=1BGX [Fetch] ...wait... Actions > Atoms & Bonds > Show Only ...rotate with mouse...

3. That molecule is a polymerase. It can run down a DNA chain, unzip it, and build a protein as it goes. Yes, a little protein nanomachine? How cool is that? And to think you wanted to write web sites instead. C'mon. Try doing something useful! ;)

Bullshit

[Anonymous Coward]

...we can't find enough people. ... So few are able to really learn on their own...

Bullshit. Either you're in east buttfuck or your company has unreasonable expectations. I bet the latter.

I bet your company has the laundry list of a shit load of skills and yet, if a candidate walked in and told you that they'd learn on their own time any skills they don't have, you'd send them packing.

I had once an interview with a manager who asked me what would I do if I had to change a technology or something on the job or make up for lack of a skill. I replied that I would head down to my local Border's (they have the best tech section) and buy a book and start cramming. He said that was the correct answer. He moved on before the hiring was done and they got a new manager who wanted the laundry list. Of course, he says "He can't get enough "qualified" people.

There are plenty of qualified people. You people just need to get your heads out of your ass and hire people not skills. Because, if you keep that up, your organization will never keep up with the times.

IBM used your excuse and it was just a cover to move all their technical people overseas.

I remember the first time they said this.

[hamburgler007]

After the bubble burst, back around 2001, and students started focusing on economic related major and getting their mba so they could go into banking/wall street. That worked out great.

A longer view of technology

[Lorien_the_first_one]

James Bessen and Robert Hunt did some interesting research at the federal reserve. What they found is that software patents tend to substitute for R&D. The study shows that over a 20 year period, investment in R&D suffered a major decline, apparently to finance software patents, patent searches, litigation and the like.

That might be a better explanation for the decline in IT perceived by Siebel. Or, maybe Siebel isn't happy with his patent portfolio.

You can find that study here.

As a HS sophomore, I was told to not major in CS

[VampireByte]

At age 15 my college plan was to major in computer science. This was in 1978. My father had me meet with some people who worked in the field. They all told me to find another interest, that by the time I graduated from college there would be nothing to do... all the computer programs would be written, all maintenance would be automated, etc. Lucky for me I snicker at crusty old fuckers, ie. anybody 20 years older than my current age.

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