Intel's Roadmap Includes 4nm Fab in 2022

Precision submits "Intel Corp., the largest maker of chips in the world, has outlined plans to make chips using 4nm process technology in about thirteen years. According to Intel, integration capacity of chips will increase much higher compared to fabrication process."

Comments

Power vs Speed

[Efreet]

It seems to me that rather than the identity and timeframe for the different technology nodes (which anyone who knows Moore's law could have given in advance) the interesting thing from that slide is what it says about delay scaling and energy scaling. Whenever you shrink your process you have a certain amount of gain that can go into either making the chip faster or making the chip more power efficient. For a long time back in the day people wanted to stay at 5 volts to preserve compatibility, so everyone just kept putting it into going faster. Nowadays chipmakers try to go for a more balanced strategy.

But here, on this chart, Intel is saying that they're going to a delay scaling of "~1", staying at pretty much the same speed. And they're looking to increase their energy scaling from "~.5" to ">.5". So it looks like we really have topped out in terms of GHz.

How about 1994, 1997 and 2000/2001?

[jeffb (2.718)]

Here's a set of roadmaps generated at three-year intervals. Note that, with the exception of RAM density, each of the charted criteria outran the roadmaps' predictions.

These roadmaps are generated by a consortium of companies. They're routinely betting the future of their entire industry on these roadmaps. They're actually pretty darned conservative.

Re:My business plan includes world domination

[rcamans]

Actually, I have been privy to Intel planning for many years, as I used to work there. It takes many years to develop the next generation uP. That means that the 16 nm devices are already in initial design stages. Since the overall design process is such a big job, all the supporting hardware is a major part of the design process. Like the fab hardware. So, no, much of this roadmap is not a thought experiment, but already many projects with many members working on the pieces. Otherwise, the plan would never come together when its time has arrived.