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NVIDIA Predicts 570x GPU Performance Boost

Posted by ScuttleMonkey on from the lets-talk-about-diminishing-returns dept.

Gianna Borgnine writes "NVIDIA is predicting that GPU performance is going to increase a whopping 570-fold in the next six years. According to TG Daily, NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang made the prediction at this year's Hot Chips symposium. Huang claimed that while the performance of GPU silicon is heading for a monumental increase in the next six years — making it 570 times faster than the products available today — CPU technology will find itself lagging behind, increasing to a mere 3 times current performance levels. 'Huang also discussed a number of "real-world" GPU applications, including energy exploration, interactive ray tracing and CGI simulations.'"

11 of 295 comments (clear)

  1. But how? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I read the article, but I don't see any explanation of how exactly that performance increase will come about. Nor is there any explanation of why GPUs will see the increase but CPUs will not. Anyone have a better article on the matter?

    1. Re:But how? by Spatial · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's Nvidia. Aren't they always saying things like this?

      It'll come about because BUY NVIDIA GPUS THEY ARE THE FUTURE, CPU SUX

  2. Re:Predictions of the future by TheRealMindChild · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Well, it comes down to simple math. For the performance to get to 570-fold more than what it is now, in the same style package, either:
    1. The GPU has to become 570-fold more efficient
    2. The GPU has to become ~570-fold smaller so they can fit 570 of the things onto a card

    Both seem highly unlikely.

    --

    "When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Make life take the lemons back!" -- Cave Johnson
  3. Re:Predictions of the future by eln · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I don't doubt the prediction at all, I just have concerns about the vat of liquid nitrogen I'm going to have to immerse my computer in to keep that thing from overheating, and the power substation I'm going to need to build in my backyard to power it.

  4. Good to know! by CopaceticOpus · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Thanks for the heads up, Nvidia! I'll be sure to hold off for 6 years on buying anything with a GPU.

  5. Jen-Hsun Huang is full of shit by Rix · · Score: 3, Insightful

    He constantly runs his mouth without any real thought to what he's saying. It's just attention whoring.

  6. GPUs need more RAM for us by Entropius · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I do high-performance lattice QCD calculations as a grad student. At the moment I'm running code on 2048 Opteron cores, which is about typical for us -- I think the big jobs use 4096 sometimes. We soak up a *lot* of CPU time on some large machines -- hundreds of millions of core-hours -- so making this stuff run faster is something People Care About.

    This sort of problem is very well suited to being put on GPU's, since the simulations are done on a four-dimensional lattice (say 40x40x40x96 -- for technical reasons the time direction is elongated) and since "do this to the whole lattice" is something that can be parallelized easily. The trouble is that the GPU's don't have enough RAM to fit everything into memory (which is understandable, they're huge) and communications between multiple GPU's are slow (since we have to go GPU -> PCI Express -> Infiniband).

    If Nvidia were to make GPU's with extra RAM (could you stuff 16GB on a card?) or a way to connect them to each other by some faster method, they'd make a lot of scientists happy.

  7. Re:Predictions of the future by LoudMusic · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Well, it comes down to simple math. For the performance to get to 570-fold more than what it is now, in the same style package, either:

    1. The GPU has to become 570-fold more efficient
    2. The GPU has to become ~570-fold smaller so they can fit 570 of the things onto a card

    Both seem highly unlikely.

    You don't feel it could be a combination of both? Kind of like they did with multi-core CPUs? Make a single unit more powerful, then use more units ... wow!

    There is more than one way to skin a cat.

    --
    No sig for you. YOU GET NO SIG!
  8. Re:The math by BikeHelmet · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So in six years, Gordon Moore says we should have 32x the performance we have now.

    No - 32x the transistors.

    You fail to predict how using those transistors in a more optimized way(more suitable to modern rendering algorithms) will affect performance.

    Just think about it - a plain old FPU and SSE4 might use the same number of transistors, but when the code needs to do a lot of fancy stuff at once, one is definitely faster.

    (inaccurate example, but you get the idea)

  9. Brilliant sales pitch by Minwee · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "Did I mention that our next model is going to be SO amazing that you'll think that our current product is crap? The new model will make EVERYTHING obsolete and the entire world will need to upgrade to it when it comes out. People won't even be able to give away any older products. Sooooo... how many of this year's model will you be buying today?

    "Hello? Are you still there?

    "Hello?"

  10. Re:Predictions of the future by Ant+P. · · Score: 5, Insightful

    1. The GPU has to become 570-fold more efficient
          2. The GPU has to become ~570-fold smaller so they can fit 570 of the things onto a card

    Both seem highly unlikely.

    If graphics card development in the last 10 years is anything to go by, nVidia's plan is that the GPU will become 570 times larger, draw 570 times more power and the fan will spin 570 times faster