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Newly Declassified FBI Docs Reveal Predictive Data System
An anonymous reader writes 'Newly declassified documents show that the FBI is developing a data-mining system to uncover terror sleeper cells. Among the 1.6 billion records in the National Security Analysis Center — tens of thousands of travel records, including hotel and airline records. Other revelations in the documents uncovered by a Wired.com FOIA request show that the feds want to expand the system for use in cyber-crime investigations, and it's already been used to scrutinize helicopter pilots and Philly cab drivers. The system has eerie resemblances to DARPA's once-banned Total Information Awareness program."
How about a data mining application to scour through political speeches and legislative records to identify politicians most- and least-likely to support such a scheme?
Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
Mod this guy up. As someone from a field who tries to separate signal from noise and develop predictive models on a daily basis (in supposedly well-controlled conditions) I can say that they have their work cut out for them. I mean, I use proven methodologies in clear-cut and well-designed experiments and end up with data that is extremely difficult to manipulate (genome wide association studies). These guys/gals are trying to observe millions of humans interacting in indiosyncratic and complex ways with millions of input-points, and they think they can use that data? Talk about multiple-testing correction. Bonferroni is the tip of the iceberg in such a data-set. The scary thing is, if you set something like this up, you will get "answers". It might be the result of a random walk, but who in the "jury of your peers" is going to understand that defense? "But your honor, they didn't even define an acceptable false discovery rate!"
It isn't so much the privacy that is of concern (though that is a concern, too). The problem with so much data is false positives, and the abuse that results from them.
Look up how Bayes' Theorem relates to random drug testing, for example. You will easily see how such systems are prone to false positives. And in a case like this -- where many magnitudes more people are innocent than guilty -- it gets that much worse. You will end up prosecuting (and possibly punishing) hundreds or thousands of innocent people for every guilty party you find.
NOT GOOD.
The public challenging them isn't the problem. It's the guys after their 72 virgins and THEY ARE NOT "THE PUBLIC".
Making the public think twice does nothing but make our lives more of a hassle. Making the guys seeking an express check in to paradise think twice doesn't do much good either. They are planning to die, and that's if the operation is successful. Taking one for the sleeper cell and getting caught just means the guys in the next cell will be getting first choice in the afterlife.
Eventually terrorists won't have to actually do anything. They come up with a zany and half-baked plan, get caught, cause everyone to overreact and then they've caused more damage then if they actually did manage to blow something up.