Slashdot Mirror


Captain Bligh's Logbooks To Yield Climate Bounty

Pickens writes "The BBC reports that researchers are digitizing the captains' logs from the voyages of Charles Darwin on HMS Beagle, Captain Cook from HMS Discovery, Captain Bligh from The Bounty, and 300 other 18th and 19th century ships' logbooks to provide historical climate records for modern-day climate researchers who will use the meteorological data to build up a picture of weather patterns in the world at the beginning of the industrial era. The researchers are cross-referencing the data with historical records for crop failures, droughts and storms and will compare it with data for the modern era in order to predict similar events in the future. 'The observations from the logbooks on wind force and weather are astonishingly good and often better than modern logbooks,' says Climatologist Dr. Dennis Wheeler from the University of Sunderland. 'Of course the sailors had to be conscientious. The thought that you could hit a reef was a great incentive to get your observations absolutely right!' The logbooks will be online next year at the UK's National Archives."

14 of 232 comments (clear)

  1. In before the global warming discussion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'm sure that this is going to devolve (pun intended) into a discussion about global warming (an argument often put against global warming is that we just don't have enough data to prove it exists). Regardless to how people feel about said subject, I hope you guys focus on how cool it is that we're preserving old information from paper-rot.

    1. Re:In before the global warming discussion by je+ne+sais+quoi · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I agree completely, it's really cool regardless of the outcome. Some of this type of historical data has already been used: Records of bird migration in particular are useful because the date is known precisely and the record doesn't rely on a measurement, i.e., all you have to do is answer the questions does the bird in question migrate earlier or later than previously, and how much so? Some examples are the snow goose (pay link, sorry) from the Hudson Bay Company and other records. Here's a full article that shows that birds are migrating to and from the UK an average of 8 days earlier than 30 years ago.

      Also, some evidence of hurricane patterns is from Spanish records of ships in the Caribbean from 1500 to 1600.

      --
      Gentlemen! You can't fight in here, this is the war room!
  2. Re:Global climate change is true! by tnok85 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Global climate change is true. Even if it's not true causing pollution is not good.
    Hopefully these logs will provide support for global climate change but if not it could be argued that reporting techniques of the time were crude.</quote>

    I like this train of thought. You can't lose. "Hey, if this supports our theory, then it can be hailed as definitive proof. If it conflicts with our theory, well, they were wrong, and it'll be easy to discredit."

  3. Re:Not old enough by timmarhy · · Score: 4, Funny

    i refuse to buy into this bullshit that CO2 is evil - CO2 is a key component to beer, and nothing related to beer can be evil, so shove it.

    --
    If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
  4. Re:Bligh was a genius by haruchai · · Score: 4, Insightful

    He was probably not much worse than the average captain of the time and nowhere near the league of George Vancouver when it
    comes to being a heavy-handed hardass. But genius or not, he was no saint, never really learned to balance power and personality - witness his
    time as Governor of New South Wales - and obviously didn't learn enough from Captain Cook about leading men.

    --
    Pain is merely failure leaving the body
  5. it's all about the snowfall by stokessd · · Score: 4, Funny

    There's little hope that the log books had accurate temperature readings, but the climate change could be inferred from things like snow depths on fiji. In fact I'm pretty sure the average snowfall on fiji has remained pretty constant in the last couple centuries, potentially refuting this whole global warming thing.

    Sheldon

  6. Even modern data isn't accurate by Ritchie70 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I hit a reference to this in the Analog magazine I'm currently reading:

    http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/surfacestationsreport_spring09.pdf

    Entitled "Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?" it reviews the accuracy of the current US surface temperature measurement network and finds it woefully lacking for the sort of analysis that results in things like 0.7 degree changes over decades.

    As a quick summary, there are the following issues with the temperature measurement methodology:

    1. The measuring statements are often either surrounded by asphalt or in the air path of air conditioning exhaust or other hot air.
    2. Data points are often not collected, and the missing points are created by interpolation.
    3. Exterior finish specification changed from whitewash to latex paint, and that change has a significant impact on measurement results.

    --
    The preferred solution is to not have a problem.
    1. Re:Even modern data isn't accurate by Tracy+Reed · · Score: 5, Informative

      Modern data IS accurate. The report you linked to is not. You are going to LOVE this:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_0-gX7aUKk

      That weather station location study discussed in the video you linked to attracted the attention of NOAA who wrote a reply:

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/about/response-v2.pdf

      Those white boxes which make up the old style weather stations that Anthony Watts (the guy who did the video you linked to) is investigating are called "Stevenson screens".

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stevenson_screen

      They form the oldest weather network in the US. They have been replaced with much newer units. The stevenson screen setups don't even have anemometers.

      But the data from those stations are only a very small fraction of all of the weather measurements taking place on earth. Satellites have been used extensively:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements

      As have radiosondes attached to weather balloons:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiosonde

      as well as many other natural indications.

      Quoted from the above linked video:

      > In order to test the validity of Mr. Watts' accusations,
      > the NOAA scientists made a comparison of
      > temperature trends, using Mr. Watts' data. Two graphs
      > were plotted using the same technique. One analysis
      > was for the full data set of 1221 US weather stations.
      > The other used only the 70 stations that Mr. Watts and
      > his volunteers classified as "good" or "best". If climate
      > denier theories are correct, the temperatures at the
      > optimally sited stations should be markedly different
      > from the data as a whole. In fact, the curves show
      > virtually no difference. That's right. Even using the
      > cherry-picked stations listed in Watts' publication, the
      > data -- according to leading scientists at NOAA --
      > shows no evidence of distortion.

  7. Re:Bligh was a genius by gmhowell · · Score: 4, Interesting

    All rational research points out that he was no worse than the average captain. There are multiple reasons we remember him as being evil, but all stem from the fact that Fletcher Christian's family was reasonably well off, and was able to pull off one heckuva PR campaign against him. Bring that through to modern times when people used that telling to create movies, and the idea of Bligh as a despot is cemented.

    In addition to all (save one) of the mutineers being killed violently by their brethren, let us also remember the 250 years of child rape perpetrated on Pitcairn Island.

    --
    Jesus was all right but his disciples were thick and ordinary. -John Lennon
  8. filtered for quality too by danlip · · Score: 5, Funny

    The thought that you could hit a reef was a great incentive to get your observations absolutely right

    And filters out the data of the people who got it wrong!

  9. Re:We'll only read about it if they support AGW by Totenglocke · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You can't keep calling it skepticism when faced with a continual stream of evidence, that's called denial.

    You can't keep calling it skepticism when faced with a continual stream of carefully selected evidence, that's called denial.

    There, fixed that for ya!

    --
    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." ~Thomas Jefferson
  10. Re:We'll only read about it if they support AGW by Capsaicin · · Score: 4, Informative

    For the last decade there has been no global warming, at all, while producing more CO2 than ever.

    1. 10 years of noisy data is not significant enough to reverse the significance of the warming trend over the entire instrumental record. 2. The last decade as shown a warming trend of 0.11C/decade.

    Scientifically, this _necessarily_ throws global warming into serious doubt.

    So long as science relies on whacky stuff like statistics, no it doesn't.

    --
    Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
  11. Re:Bligh was a genius by TheDugong · · Score: 4, Insightful

    (Slightly under half of) the sailors were inspired to mutiny by Tahitian pussy, or lack there of after five months of it. Bligh was too nice in letting them live ashore with the Tahitians, having relations with them, and not flogging them enough.

    The Rum Rebellion happened because he tried to remove the advantageous position some people in the Sydney colony had. This position would be called a monopoly nowadays.

    So, maybe not a genius, but he tried to do the right thing(tm).

  12. Re:Bligh was a genius by drmerope · · Score: 4, Informative

    "Captain" Bligh of the Bounty was a lieutenant. Young and still a bit green as a commander.

    Bligh and _2/3rds_ of the crew were placed into a small dingy and set adrift. Having only a compass and sextant he went 6700km and nailed the nearest British outpost Timor. Only one man died on route.

    Further wikipedia concisely notes:
    "The Bounty's log shows that Bligh resorted to punishments relatively sparingly. He scolded when other captains would have whipped and whipped when other captains would have hanged. He was an educated man, deeply interested in science, convinced that good diet and sanitation were necessary for the welfare of his crew. He took a great interest in his crew's exercise, was very careful about the quality of their food, and insisted upon the Bounty being kept very clean."