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WHO Says Swine Flu May Have Peaked In the US

Posted by Soulskill on from the also-reportedly-stole-the-cookie-from-the-cookie-jar dept.

Hugh Pickens writes "The World Health Organization says that there were 'early signs of a peak' in swine flu activity in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including the US. The American College Health Association, which surveys more than 250 colleges with more than three million students, said new flu cases had dropped 27 percent in the week ending on November 13th from the week before, the first drop since school resumed in the fall. Nonetheless, Dr. Anne Schuchat, the director of vaccination and respiratory disease at the CDC, chose her words carefully. 'We are in better shape today than we were a couple of weeks ago,' she says. 'I wish I knew if we had hit the peak. Even if a peak has occurred, half the people who are going to get sick haven't gotten sick yet.' Privately, federal health officials say they fear that if they concede the flu has peaked, Americans will become complacent and lose interest in getting vaccinated, increasing the chances of another wave. However, Dr. Lone Simonsen, a former CDC epidemiologist, says she expects a third wave in December or January, possibly beginning in the South again. Based on death rates in New York City and in Scandinavia, Simonsen argues that both 1918 and 1957 had mild spring waves followed by two stronger waves, one in fall and one in midwinter, adding that in the pandemic of 1889, the bulk of the deaths occurred in the third wave. 'If people think it's going away, they can think again.'"

26 of 138 comments (clear)

  1. Who? by Lord+Lode · · Score: 5, Funny

    Who says it? Well, it wasn't me.

    1. Re:Who? by zippthorne · · Score: 2, Funny

      Which Doctor?

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  2. Relevance by Pete+Venkman · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Isn't the peak something that you talk about later when you are analyzing the data? Of what relevance is it to discuss a peak in this current cycle?

  3. Where does the money go? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'm somehow sceptic about the whole hype around the swine flu based on the fact that the U.S. Government alone paid nearly a billion $ for the vaccine http://sanfrancisco.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2009/07/13/daily26.html, much more globally. I mean, the swine flu is even less hazardous than the normal flu, and with some good care for the immune system it does not cause much problems, so is it really necessary to spread a big panic and spend that amount of money? I mean, that's a lot of money. Really.

    1. Re:Where does the money go? by Afforess · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Because the lost productivity from having massive amounts of the workforce absent due to illness, never mind the costs of delays and other problems would cost us more than one billion.

      (Swine Flu) A virus that was super-contagious and infected nearly everyone, and got them sick for 2 weeks, but barely anyone would die from would be far more economically damaging than a virus that was not very contagious, but killed all those it infected. (HIV)

      This is because our economy was never meant to handle a mass exodus of workers. We're lucky it wasn't worse than it was. In places in Michigan, 1/2 of entire counties got sick, and schools and businesses were closed for days.

      Just because You didn't get sick doesn't mean the illness is trivial.

      --
      If our elected representatives no longer represent us, do we still live in a Democracy?
    2. Re:Where does the money go? by fusellovirus · · Score: 3, Informative

      the reason for concern is legitimate, albeit possibly overtcautipus. Two traits make this flu serious. One is the observation that a higher percentage of deaths are occuring in young people and two is that, being a strain with genes that have recently jumped from swine and possibly birds makes it less stable.

    3. Re:Where does the money go? by tomhudson · · Score: 2, Insightful

      (Swine Flu) A virus that was super-contagious and infected nearly everyone,

      ... except that H1N1 isn't "super contagious" - it's not even as contagious as regular flu. The hype from Mexico was wrong - of the 152 people who supposedly died from it (which is what made people thinkit was highly contagious), revised figures showed only 7 actually did.

      The big lesson here is don't listen to Fox News and CNN, and don't let Fox News and CNN dictate government policy. (And I'd blame WHO and CDC for part of this as well - they have a financial and institutional interest in keeping the hype going well after it was obvious it was mostly bullshit).

    4. Re:Where does the money go? by geekboy642 · · Score: 2

      Acai berry is provably a less potent antioxidant than cheaper and more prevalent foods. Not to mention that antioxidants have no proven benefits. None. Your anecdote notwithstanding, antioxidants are bogus. On the other hand, vitamin D is really fucking important, so taking 0.25mg a day is probably a good idea. There's not much of a link between it and the immune system, but you'll be safe from rickets.
      How about the following to protect from illness: Wash your hands. Don't touch your face. Get enough rest. Drink lots of fluids. Eat healthy. Exercise a little. Most sick people haven't been doing those, and I can trace every illness I've ever gotten to skipping more than one.
      Expensive supplements are a waste of money. Stupid Americans want a miracle pill that doesn't exist...take care of yourself, you pussies!

      --
      Just another "DOJ fascist authoritarian totalitarian bootlicker" -- Zeio
  4. BS by dagamer34 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    You can't know something has peaked or bottomed out until way after the fact. It's like having a sign of relief when in the eye of a hurricane or ignoring the possibility of aftershocks from earthquakes.

    1. Re:BS by sjames · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You can't be CERTAIN until after the fact, that's why the use of words and phrases like "hopeful", "may have", and even "I wish I knew".

      For example, if you have observed both the leading and trailing walls of a hurricane pass you have reason to hope it's over. It COULD come back around or trigger a secondary storm, so you can't be sure but you have ample reason for hope (just don't bet your life on it).

      At the same time it's intresting to see media sources desperately clinging to the "OMG! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!" line in spite of strong evidence to the contrary. Anyone remember a year ago when the bird flu was going to kill us all? Where'd that go? IIRC, before that it was West Nile. That one kinda fizzled because there was no good vaccine to urge everyone to panic over.

      I note that nobody's reminding people that a great way to avoid exposure to either flu is to avoid crowded shopping malls and "doorbuster" sales.

      I suppose next year, after the stats are all in the panic will be the seasonal flu which is MORE DEADLY THAN SWINE FLU!!!!! Only they'll refer to it as H?N? so it sounds more mysterious.

  5. Yes, it is less now ... by kbahey · · Score: 3, Informative

    Here in Canada, my doctor said yesterday that he is seeing a drop in people coming in with flu symptoms. It used to be more in the past few weeks.

    Also, Google Flu Trends shows a marked drop. In the USA, there is a drop too.

    I have also observed less absence at my little kid's school as well.

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  6. What percentage died with and without vaccination? by scsirob · · Score: 2, Interesting

    We are still struggling to find the real effects of vaccination in The Netherlands. Many people think they shouldn't bother.

    So are there any statistics about fatality rate of swine flu versus 'regular' flu and also vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated?

    --
    To Terminate, or not to Terminate, that's the question - SCSIROB
  7. Google Flu Trends by hweimer · · Score: 2, Informative

    Interestingly, Google Flu Trends shows similar signs, although there the peak already occured in October.

    --
    OS Reviews: Free and Open Source Software
  8. Peak swine flu by maxwell+demon · · Score: 2, Funny

    OK, peak oil is bad enough. But now also peak swine flu? Imagine the effects on the vaccine producers!

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  9. Re:News for nerds ... stuff that matters by maxwell+demon · · Score: 3, Funny

    It tells you for how long the swine flu excuse will work.

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  10. The WHO is horrible. by Timosch · · Score: 4, Funny

    They did horrible things, e.g. killing the electric car, Sgt Pepper, ...

  11. Re:"Pandemics" are the new "terrorists". by maxwell+demon · · Score: 2, Funny

    So what country do we have to invade to fight against the pandemists?

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  12. Re:What percentage died with and without vaccinati by fusellovirus · · Score: 2, Informative

    I'm not sure about the Netherlands but the US uses the vaccine adverse event reporting system to track all vaccine associated illness and its public ally available....the side effects seem to be about the same as most seasonal flu shots.

  13. yea, right by frovingslosh · · Score: 2, Insightful

    So glad to hear it. Pay no attention to the mutated Tamiflu resistant versions that were reported in both Norway and North Carolina just yesterday.

    --
    I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
  14. That would be nice! by wwphx · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This year I was diagnosed as being immune-compromised after having had pneumonia four times from February to June. They haven't shipped very much H1N1 vaccine to New Mexico, and it doesn't seem like any of it has made it to the southern part of the state where I live. Fortunately people like me with immune disorders have been recategorized as being in the priority group when vaccine does become available. If we're past the peak, then maybe people won't clamor as much for the vaccine and I'll have a better shot at getting inoculated as I must have the shot, can't have the nasal vaccine.

    --
    When you sympathize with stupidity, you start thinking like an idiot.
  15. Is there supposed to be only one peak ? by Cochonou · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It might very well be a local peak (temporally speaking). For instance, see the shape of the flu progression in France, which was characterized by a peak in September. Now, it is rising again.

    1. Re:Is there supposed to be only one peak ? by Escape+From+NY · · Score: 2, Insightful

      We might also see another peak if, for some reason, large numbers of people suddenly decide to congregate in a set geographic location like a shopping mall. Or maybe if groups of people gather in a self contained tube for hours at a time. Luckily, I can't imagine any reason for people to do either of these things in at least the next week or so.

  16. Re:"Pandemics" are the new "terrorists". by NotBornYesterday · · Score: 3, Informative

    Where else? Pandemistan.

    --
    I prefer rogues to imbeciles because they sometimes take a rest.
  17. If vaccine was available, people would get it by iamacat · · Score: 2, Informative

    Our whole family just had H1N1 and yet none of us could get a vaccine beforehand, not even our 2 year old daughter. If vaccine was available, all of us would have gotten it. To top the confusion, the doctor is still asking us to get the shot when it becomes available. Give me a frigging break.

    Now what amazes me is that our daughter coughed for 2 days and then she was fine, while we are still sick after 3 weeks. Daycares must create some kind of mutant immune systems that put interspecies viruses to shame.

    1. Re:If vaccine was available, people would get it by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 2, Informative

      Our whole family just had H1N1 and yet none of us could get a vaccine beforehand, not even our 2 year old daughter. If vaccine was available, all of us would have gotten it. To top the confusion, the doctor is still asking us to get the shot when it becomes available. Give me a frigging break.

      Same here, and I'm pissed. I got the seasonal vaccine in early October and would have taken both had they been available.

      This is the only aspect of healthcare that the Federal government has complete control over. This is how well it works.

      Now what amazes me is that our daughter coughed for 2 days and then she was fine, while we are still sick after 3 weeks. Daycares must create some kind of mutant immune systems that put interspecies viruses to shame.

      Yeah, our kids recovered quickly as well, but that's not surprising. In the Canadian study the highest mortality peaks were:

      32 years old
      female
      first-nations heritage

      The people they're prioritizing for vaccine aren't the most heavily affected, they're the ones people show the most emotional sympathy for. It's bad medicine, plain and simple (or call it politics if that's comforting).

      As for why those are the worst victims, I don't really know, but there are several diseases where a strong immune response will do more damage than the vaccine. This could be one.

      --
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  18. Seasonal flu wave yet to come by AlpineR · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I wonder how bad the seasonal flu wave will be this year. With all the excitement about swine flu, seasonal flu vaccinations seem to be forgotten.

    I've been undergoing cancer treatment for the past five years and usually get the shot to reduce the chance of getting the flu while I'm busy fighting something else. But this year my oncologist's office ran out of the vaccine between my monthly checkups. My backup plan is to get the shot at work or a drugstore, but I haven't seen any information about those clinics this year.

    I won't be surprised if many people get the swine flu vaccine (or try to get it and fail), then figure they've taken care of the biggest threat and forget to prepare for seasonal flu.