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Russia Plans To Divert Asteroid

Posted by samzenpus on from the Bruce-Willis-approved dept.

CyberDong writes "Roscosmos, Russia's Federal Space Agency, will start working on a project to save planet Earth from a possible collision with Asteroid Apophis, which may happen in 2036. NASA specialists believe that the collision is extremely unlikely. Russian specialists will choose the strategy and then invite the world's leading space agencies to join the project."

39 of 305 comments (clear)

  1. If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    When they take an asteroid that's not likely to hit Earth, and accidentally divert it onto a path directly at Earth, I'm going to do an epic facepalm.

    1. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by Trackster · · Score: 5, Insightful

      When they invite NASA and ESA to join in, I'm confident that cooler heads will prevail. I can easily trust a decision that results from these 3 putting their heads together.

    2. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by stoolpigeon · · Score: 4, Funny

      based on their experience with avoiding snow - I consider this to be a highly likely outcome.

      --
      It's hard to believe that's how Micronians are made. Why don't we see it right now by having you both kiss one another?
    3. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by MichaelSmith · · Score: 4, Insightful

      NO, there is a bigger chance to be hit by an asteroid than to win a lottery. Because Apophis is under observation we know exactly what the risk is. The real risks come from objects we are not currently observing.

      --
      http://michaelsmith.id.au
    4. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by Tynin · · Score: 5, Insightful

      When they take an asteroid that's not likely to hit Earth, and accidentally divert it onto a path directly at Earth, I'm going to do an epic facepalm.

      Orbital mechanics have a funny way of making an object return to its point of egress. Given how close it is, it is a bit concerning they want to adjust its orbit.

      That said, I feel this is something we need more experience in anyhow. Their is already an asteroid out there right now with our name on it, it is just a matter of time before it shows up. We will lose out if we don't take this opportunity to field test our idea's as we have the tech to do so now. As an economical side point, one day I'm sure we'd like to know how to slowly adjust their paths to bring them into an more contained/slower orbit around/near Earth so we can begin mining them for untold trillions of $ worth of materials they contain.

    5. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by dangitman · · Score: 4, Funny

      There's a bigger chance to get hit by Apophis then to win the lottery.

      Doesn't seem likely to me. If an asteroid hits the planet, there might not be any more lotteries run after that. And the likelihood of the asteroid hitting, and me winning the lottery shortly afterward is vanishingly small, especially as I don't enter lotteries.

      --
      ... and then they built the supercollider.
    6. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by QuantumG · · Score: 5, Funny

      Indeed. There's a lot of exciting lotteries out there and we've got tickets in all of them.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    7. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by Darkness404 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yeah, not going to happen. The problem is, who is going to fund all of it? Russia's space agency is operating at a shoestring budget, NASA since the cold war ended isn't getting tons of money, and I'm not sure about the ESA but it seems kinda tiny when compared to NASA and the Russian space agencies. The problem with global cooperation is that if Russia has the best idea according to say, the ESA, but NASA has more money but has an idea no one likes, they might end up having to do it because they aren't going to finance the ESA/Russia's idea.

      --
      Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
    8. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by geckipede · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Exactly so. It doesn't matter if Apophis is going to hit us or not, the point is that this is a perfect opportunity to practise deflection strategies in advance of the real life-or-death event. There are going to be flaws in our thinking, every single asteroid shunting plan we have is untested and will be less than perfect when put into practise. We absolutely need to know whether there are critical mission failure flaws in these plans, or just minor irritations that won't ruin things.

      When it finally comes to the point when an asteroid is on a direct collision course, we might not be lucky, we might not have seen it decades in advance, and so a test run and lots of arguing about methods might not be an option.

    9. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by PPH · · Score: 3, Funny

      The real risks come from objects we are not currently observing.

      Russian scientists.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    10. Re:If it's not broken, why are you fixing it? by MBGMorden · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I want to point out that the odds of winning a state lottery jackpot, let alone a MegaMillions jackpot, are so small that your odds of buying a winning ticket are effectively no better than the odds of finding a winning ticket on the ground.

      For that to be true then amongst past winners there'd have to be an even distribution of people who bought their ticket versus people who randomly picked up their ticket off the ground. Somehow I doubt that's the case ;).

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
  2. The one thing that'll guarantee an Asteroid strike by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Is the ability to divert asteroids.

    Wonderful weapon, just massive blast damage and no residual radiation.

  3. Extremely unlikely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    NASA: Listen, there's no way that thing is going to hit us.
    Roscosmos: Naturally, since we're diverting it. Thank you for your vote of confidence, American pigs.

    1. Re:Extremely unlikely by Hurricane78 · · Score: 4, Funny

      Nah, you forgot that little bit of emphasis: ;)

      NASA: Listen, there's no way that thing is going to hit us.
      Roscosmos: Yeah, because it’s going to hit us, dickheads.

      --
      Any sufficiently advanced intelligence is indistinguishable from stupidity.
  4. In Soviet Russia. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    You hit Aster... wait.

    In Soviet Russia, Asteroid hits Y...

    I've been defeated.

    1. Re:In Soviet Russia. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      On Asteroid, Soviet Russia hits YOU!

  5. Great quote in the article by nycguy · · Score: 4, Funny

    "Everything will be done according to the laws of physics."

    That's what they all say...

  6. Relax by Yurka · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's just another way of diverting the flow of government money into a few carefully chosen pockets. As is the nano-technology research program, and the snow-free winters mentioned earlier today. Think about it: an open-ended grant with no accountability for a quarter century - and likely ever? They'll get a couple government defaults and an odd coup in between, who's going to care about the small stuff.

    --
    I can assure you, the best way to get rid of dragons is to have one of your own.
  7. Sounds Fishy by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Actually, it sounds like Perminov has no idea what he's talking about to begin with, so it seems unlikely that this will go anywhere. Consider this quote, from the original AP article:

    Without mentioning NASA's conclusions, Perminov said that he heard from a scientist that Apophis is getting closer and may hit the planet. "I don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032," Perminov said.

    Note that the NASA conclusion is that, no, there will be no strike in 2032 and unlikely in 2036. It sounds like he's a bureaucrat trying to make himself important by making up a job. That doesn't bode well for the projecting going anywhere.

    (Phil Plait has talked about this, too.)

    1. Re:Sounds Fishy by QuantumG · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This is everything currently known about the orbit of 99942 Apophis.

      http://aeweb.tamu.edu/aero489/Apophis%20Mitigation%20Project/Predicting%20Earth%20Encounters.pdf

      We'll know more in 2012/2013 when radar returns can be collected. Anyone who says that there is "no chance", "nearly no chance" or anything other than "we don't have enough data yet" is just trying to stem public panic by treating you like a child. Read the scientific papers, make your own decision and for god sakes, don't criticize the people we may be calling on to save lives in the future.

      The fact is, asteroid detection systems (let alone mitigation systems) globally are woefully inadequate. We need at least a dozen radar telemetry satellites in solar orbit and improvements in the deep-space-network to handle that kind of data through-put. Total cost is likely in the tens of billions, and most of that will go on the telescopes, not the radar sats, and traditionally that's the most starved part of all national budgets diverted to space.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    2. Re:Sounds Fishy by hedwards · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well then we definitely don't have enough information to choose a method. If we don't know enough to estimate the likelihood of impact, then we don't know enough about the trajectory to even consider screwing with it. The Earth has been around for billions of years and in the last several hundred million years, it's been hit by how many bodies large enough to threaten all life?

      That's not to say that it couldn't happen, but it is an indication of what kind of stuff our orbit leads us through on a regular basis. And a reason to be concerned when anybody suggests that we monkey around with an asteroid, sure we might succeed in changing it's velocity, but we might very well cause it to hit us rather than narrowly avoiding us.

    3. Re:Sounds Fishy by CheshireCatCO · · Score: 3, Informative

      Instead of being insulting, why not read it yourself?

      A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036.

      and

      While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical
      measurements,

      No, the odds of impact aren't zero. But they're not anywhere near high enough to be really freaked, either. You're more likely to die of swine flu in the US, after all. So no, we astrophysicists are not trying to treat you like a child, we're trying to explain to you what these odds mean.

      (Note that no one is saying that we shouldn't look at ways to protect ourselves from asteroids in general. But this particular politician's claims and sources seem questionable and I, for one, don't think he's going to lead us to any real improvements in our protection.)

    4. Re:Sounds Fishy by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The Earth has been around for billions of years and in the last several hundred million years, it's been hit by how many bodies large enough to threaten all life?

      Please note that Apophis is nowhere near large enough to "threaten all life".

      Wreck a city? It can do that.

      Make a spectular boom? That too.

      But it's not a threat to "all life". Or even most life. Or even a little bit of life (unless it lands on the last four white rhinos in the wild).

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  8. Re:thats what they hope by maxume · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Last year's inch is next year's mile.

    --
    Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
  9. Can we.... by zach_the_lizard · · Score: 3, Funny

    Can we send annoying actors on a mission to land on this asteroid, drill down into it, and make it blow up? Oh, and can we have one of those guys have to stay behind to detonate it? Better yet, make them all have to stay behind.

    --
    SSC
  10. asteroid by wizardforce · · Score: 4, Informative

    Even if Apophis has no chance of hitting Earth, attempting to divert the asteroid farther from Earth may have value as a test of our ability to do so. I would however, prefer that they did such a test on an asteroid that is not due to pass so close to Earth any time soon.

    --
    Sigs are too short to say anything truly profound so read the above post instead.
    1. Re:asteroid by couchslug · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If we want the power to divert asteroids we must prove we can do it in order to know we can do it.

      This is a bit like atmospheric testing, which decisively proved limited nuclear wars are quite practical and suggested that total nuclear war was an extreme last resort. Some things aren't practical to simulate.

      --
      "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
    2. Re:asteroid by RobVB · · Score: 4, Funny

      What you're asking for is either:

      A) We hit Mars with an asteroid! Hooray for science! (15 years later) MARS AND EARTH WILL COLLIDE IN 100 YEARS"

      B) Scientists found proof of intelligent life on Mars - recent underground civilization uncovered by asteroid impact

      --
      I'd rather you rationally disagree than irrationally agree.
    3. Re:asteroid by maxume · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That isn't really an answer to the notion of testing on a slightly less exciting asteroid.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
  11. Russian hot air by vvaduva · · Score: 3, Informative

    Having lived for most of my life in the "east" under Communism, I am sure that this announcement is hot air...along the lines of nationalistic-pride type of goals that both the U.S. and USSR used to pump out on a regular basis during the cold war. Russia can barely keep up with paying their military bills; their nuclear subs are barely staying afloat and space program is not doing well; it's unthinkable that in this economic climate they will spend the kind of money required to accomplish this.

  12. Uhhhh, excuse me but... by HangingChad · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Roscosmos, Russia's Federal Space Agency, will start working on a project to save planet Earth from a possible collision with Asteroid Apophis

    This would be the same people who just tried to engineer a winter without snow in Russia, with mixed results.

    Now they're going to try diverting an asteroid.

    What could go wrong?

    --
    That's our life, the big wheel of shit. - The Fat Man, Blue Tango Salvage
  13. Even if it did hit... by Ethanol-fueled · · Score: 5, Informative
    From the Wikipedia:

    Any impact would be extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would be unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the initiation of an impact winter.

    Also, this. Looks like Russia has a lot more at stake then America does.

    ( In before [citation needed] )

  14. Test drive by slasho81 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Even if this asteroid is not going to hit Earth, I think it's time to test drive some solutions to an inevitable problem with terrifying consequences.

    As a bonus, we might actually advance science and technology!

  15. Whatever the specifics are... by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 4, Funny

    How much you wanna bet this will involve Putin, a gun, and a film crew?

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  16. Re:The one thing that'll guarantee an Asteroid str by Rockoon · · Score: 3, Interesting

    How about a 100% chance of it hitting the moon.

    I think that we can arrange it. I would definitely prefer to have my tax dollar spent making something cool like that happen, rather than spend it on bailouts or diverting it directly into the pockets of the health insurance industry.

    --
    "His name was James Damore."
  17. Why limit yourself? by Mathinker · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The question to me is: is there a bigger chance of Apophis hitting Earth than the chance of catastrophic climate change due to anthropogenic global warming? Because that has the western world's attention and money, and Apophis does not.

    Why does everyone focus on the anthropogenic and not on the catastrophic? I mean, isn't it worth our while to research ways to prevent/ameliorate catastrophic climate change no matter what the cause?

  18. Would really be great if they can do it by Tanuki64 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This asteroid may not pose a threat. But another one might sooner or later. So even if it does not make much sense in terms of actual threat now, I guess, it is a good opportunity to gather data on projects like this. Or to say in another way: Do you really want to wait till an asteroid is discovered, which will hit the earth for sure and then start thinking and developing?

  19. Re:The one thing that'll guarantee an Asteroid str by tsotha · · Score: 3, Insightful

    There will be plenty of radiation when your target launches a nuclear strike in response.

  20. A little game theory... by js_sebastian · · Score: 3, Interesting

    NO, there is a bigger chance to be hit by an asteroid than to win a lottery.

    Is there really? Estimates of this based on historical data would have us hit by an asteroid big enough to make dinosaurs go extinct once every... 70 million years (or so, look it up if you want correct numbers). So it is perhaps about as likely to be hit by one in a given year as a given ticket winning the lottery (depending on how big a lottery). However, if we assume that such an asteroid would kill 7 billion people if it did hit, we can also say that catastrophic asteroid impact kills on average 100 people a year... not a highly impressive number, probably less people than are killed by flying debris http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0EY86At7qs each year, but still pretty high considering that there is hardly any historical record of a man being killed by an asteroid impact.