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SSD Price Drops Signaling End of Spinning Media?

gjt writes "When Intel and OCZ recently announced new 'affordable' Solid State Disk drives — offering a meager 32-40GB — we initially yawned. But, then we took a closer look at the press releases and the in-progress research and development in SSD technology and opened our eyes. While the new drives aren't affordable on a cost per gigabyte basis for everyone, it does set a precedent — and most importantly a barometer price of $100. And it really does start the death clock for hard drive technology."

13 of 646 comments (clear)

  1. ...Or an arms race by Dan+East · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think HDD will continue to stay enough ahead of SSD in raw capacity that it will stay relevant for a long time. When SSD is affordable at 200 GB then HDD will already be affordable at 2 TB, etc.

    --
    Better known as 318230.
    1. Re:...Or an arms race by LWATCDR · · Score: 4, Insightful

      SSDs will replace all the small hard drives.
      When you get down to small enough drive SSDs will be cheaper per Gig than HDs.
      Right now you can buy a 1TB drive for right around $90.
      But you can not buy a 5ooGB drive for $45 or a 250GB drive for $22.50. There is a limit to how cheap you can make a harddrive.
      At some point SSDs in the 120Gb range will be cheaper than spinning platters. It is probably close right now.
      When that happens you will see SSDs replace HDs in that range. That range will keep creeping up and up.
      So HDDs will be what you get when you need a lot of storage. Maybe they will eventually be used only for externals and NASs.
      Eventually 1 TB SSDs will be cheaper than HDDs but for all I know we will have 100TB HDs for $90.
      BTW as someone that paid several hundred dollars for a 30MB HD in 1984 the idea of a sub hundred dollar 100TB HDD just seems like a matter of time.

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    2. Re:...Or an arms race by exasperation · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think HDD will continue to stay enough ahead of SSD in raw capacity that it will stay relevant for a long time. When SSD is affordable at 200 GB then HDD will already be affordable at 2 TB, etc.

      Ah, but when 200 GB of storage is $20, no hard drive will ever be able to be that cheap. There is a fixed minimum cost for building a hard drive. Spindle, motor, etc. It's about $70. When "enough storage" for the average user, let's say 200 GB costs less than that base cost, almost all new storage sold will be SSD devices due to their overall advantages, especially in a battery-powered machine (which are the majority of all computers sold today).

      This will completely gut the market for hard drives and R&D into them will cease. All money will move to SSDs and they will improve even more rapidly.

  2. Re:In 5 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    In 5 years, people will still be maintaining COBOL systems.

  3. Price isn't everything by Angst+Badger · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Price is only the first hurdle for SSDs. There's also the issue of reliability, and reports from the field suggest that SSD reliability is highly variable, and in no case as good over the long term as hard drives. That will probably change in time, but they're not there yet.

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  4. This just in! by Spazntwich · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Helicopters signal the end of automobiles, just as soon as their poor $$/mile traveled ratio reaches parity, but you can buy helicopters from Air Hog right now!

    Solar panels signal the end of nuclear power AND the oil industry, just as soon as their poor $$/watt ratio reaches parity! But you can get a solar powered calculator RIGHT NOW!

    Can I be a tech pundit yet?

    1. Re:This just in! by hahn · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Helicopters signal the end of automobiles, just as soon as their poor $$/mile traveled ratio reaches parity, but you can buy helicopters from Air Hog right now!

      Solar panels signal the end of nuclear power AND the oil industry, just as soon as their poor $$/watt ratio reaches parity! But you can get a solar powered calculator RIGHT NOW!

      Can I be a tech pundit yet?

      Yeah, and LCD's signal the end for CRT's...

      Oh wait.

      --
      "The only normal people are the ones you don't know very well."
  5. Who really needs SSDs for Porn? by Bananatree3 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    SSDs offer speed. Spinning Disk HDDs offer cheap space. Hybrid disks offer a nice compromise until SSDs overtake spinning disks in storage/price.

    I mean really, who needs an expensive big SSD for your porn collection? Unless you have 12 monitors running porn simulcasting...SSD speeds are really only needed for heavily accessed files. HDDs offer cheap storage for those not-so-often used files. The solution is relatively inexpensive, and here today

  6. Re:In 5 years by ArcherB · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Pity the lesson of Y2K went unheeded - where every COBOL programmer was paid whatever they asked to fix their code, but after should have all been taken out to a field and shot in the head.

    Why shoot the programmers? Why not shoot the managers too ignorant to modernize their code base?

    To get back on topic, I see spinning drives as the new backup or large file storage medium. You boot off your SSD and keep most of your files there, but anything you want a backup copy of or anything large enough to not need fast access, like movies, pictures, and music get stored on the HDD.

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  7. Re:Interesting assumptions by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Music you say? We're talking about "needing"... You don't "need" music on your laptop, unless that's your profession, but that doesn't make you a typcial user.

    Fail.

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    "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

  8. Disks are dying -- AGAIN... by sillivalley · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Pundits have been tolling the death knell of rotating storage for ... decades?

    But somehow, the rotating storage business manages to innovate its way back to relevance -- Winchester technology, thin film heads, headerless architectures, increased spindle speeds, bigger caches, perpendicular recording, 4k sectors, continuing advances in encoding and ECC, continuing advances in media -- the advances keep coming.

    And whatever happened to bubble memory, anyway? Wasn't that supposed to save the day and obsolete rotating storage once and for all? Isn't that what Intel promised us?

  9. Re:In 5 years by UnknowingFool · · Score: 4, Insightful

    where every COBOL programmer was paid whatever they asked to fix their code

    The initial assumption here is that there was a design flaw in their code. It wasn't a design flaw; the code was simply never designed to be running for this long. In some cases of very old code, it wasn't practical to use a 4 digit date when the code was written. In some cases the programmers warned well in advance that it would need to be fixed but that costs money and business don't willy nilly spend money unless they have to spend money.

    --
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  10. Re:In 5 years by HiThere · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You are an idiot.

    At the time most of that code was written, 32K (words) was a large computer. You SQUEEZED the bits into words tightly. TIGHTLY. People recommended tricks like XORING two pointers together to save space, at the cost of additional computation. And mainframe computer time was in the neighborhood of $700/hour. And that was before several rounds of 12% inflation. At that time a paperback book cost between $0.50 and $0.75, to help you calibrate what that meant.

    Also turnaround for many programmers was once per day via courier.

    At that time two digit years were the appropriate choice. Four digit years didn't become reasonable, by and large, until the 1980's or even later. (Remember when we moved from mainframes to CP/M computers, our disk storage was trimmed to around 70KB. And our RAM was limited at 64KB. It wasn't until personal computers got hard disks that this limit was lifted. (Networked hard disks came later for most people.)

    So for anything written after 1990, you might well have a point, but that's not the code you're dissing. Idiot.

    The other respondent who said you should have blamed the managers was more reasonable. Unfortunately current management theory claims that managers don't need to know anything about what they're managing. So the individual managers, themselves, probably aren't to blame. I'd put the blame on the general managers, who should know better than to accept that theory. (Though at their level it becomes true. But a part of their job is to know how the job requirements change as the degree of separation form the actual work increases, and they generally fall down on that. Badly.)

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