Real-World Outcomes Predicted Using Social Media

Hugh Pickens writes "Kevin Kelly writes that researchers at the Social Computing Lab at HP Labs in Palo Alto have found that social media content can predict real world outcomes. In their study, the researchers built a model that used chatter from Twitter to predict accurately the box-office revenues of upcoming movies weeks before the movies were released. When the sentiment of the tweet was factored in (how favorable it was toward the new movie), the prediction was even more exact. To quantify the sentiments in 3 million tweets, the team used anonymous workers from Amazon's Mechanical Turk to rate a sample of tweets, and then trained an algorithmic classifier to derive a rating for the rest. But predicting box office receipts may be only the beginning. 'This method can be extended to a large panoply of topics [PDF], ranging from the future rating of products to agenda setting and election outcomes,' the researchers write. 'At a deeper level, this work shows how social media expresses a collective wisdom which, when properly tapped, can yield an extremely powerful and accurate indicator of future outcomes.'"

Comments

Note to self...

[wavemancali]

Tweet incorrectly about the next election to screw with the people tracking this.

Maybe a good prediction for public opinion

[dreadlord76]

A candidate makes a speech, and then the workers scrape SN data to see the response, so the candidate can further tailor the message for the next speech. However, do we really want to always be driven by public opinion?

Is it the content or the buzz?

[dstates]

The fact that the tweets predict the sales in advance of the movies release or people actually seeing the movie raises an interesting question. Is it the content of the movie or the "buzz" that really matters?