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Twitter Predicts Box Office Results

Posted by samzenpus on from the tweet-to-the-bank dept.

netjockey2 writes "In a study published by HP entitled 'Predicting the future with Social Media,' researchers Sitaram Asur and Bernardo A. Huberman 'demonstrate how the content of social networks can be used to predict events in the real world.' In particular, they say they are 'using threads from Twitter.com to predict box office revenues of films.'"

30 of 44 comments (clear)

  1. this story is a dupe. by Nadaka · · Score: 4, Informative

    We saw it last week.

    1. Re:this story is a dupe. by sznupi · · Score: 1

      Some productions do enjoy a comeback...

      --
      One that hath name thou can not otter
    2. Re:this story is a dupe. by Spritzer · · Score: 1

      Yes we did.

    3. Re:this story is a dupe. by Mikkeles · · Score: 4, Funny

      'We saw it last week.'

      As predicted by Twitter, believe it or not!

      --
      Great minds think alike; fools seldom differ.
  2. Less Than Three Days Old by Reason58 · · Score: 3, Funny

    Too bad we can't use Twitter to predict Slashdot dupes.

    1. Re:Less Than Three Days Old by Thanshin · · Score: 1

      That reply is a dupe. We saw it at 06:02PM.

    2. Re:Less Than Three Days Old by kiehlster · · Score: 1

      Oh, I bet we could. If the popularity of the story on social networks is high enough and the original posting didn't have any high-profile news outlets linked, then we can probably determine how quickly a /. user who only gets the weekly newspaper decides to post their findings linked to said high-profile newspaper web article when they get to work on Monday morning.

      Of course, these dupes could be reduced if posts with high-profile news links are checked before they are given the green light.

  3. Amazing ... Not! by WrongSizeGlass · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Seeing people posting about what they're doing does not predict what they are doing, it documents it. This is just another attempt at justifying all the wasted electrons used for this social media sh!t.

    BTW, after seeing all the posts online about how many people hate the iPad even before it came out should have predicted it wouldn't sell at all - even though it seems to have sold pretty well so far. I guess their theory didn't predict that their theory failed. Oh wait, now that I've posted this it does predict it.

    1. Re:Amazing ... Not! by quantumplacet · · Score: 1

      BTW, after seeing all the posts online about how many people hate the iPad even before it came out should have predicted it wouldn't sell at all - even though it seems to have sold pretty well so far. I guess their theory didn't predict that their theory failed. Oh wait, now that I've posted this it does predict it.

      except the number of posts complaining about the iPad were and are far far outweighed by the number of posts praising it. this is combing twitter posts, not slashdot posts. if it used slashdot posts then it would predict that the iPad will fail, that Linux is the most popular desktop OS, and that people love pictures of gaping assholes.

    2. Re:Amazing ... Not! by TipsyMongoose · · Score: 2, Funny

      This is just another attempt at justifying all the wasted electrons used for this social media sh!t.

      ...he said by posting a peer rated comment on a community updated news blog.

    3. Re:Amazing ... Not! by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      Linux is the most popular desktop OS

      Actually, it is. You see, everyone who uses an OS (any OS) on a regular basis grows to hate it over time. Linux is the desktop OS that the fewest people use, and therefore that the fewest people hate. That makes it the most popular desktop OS (well, except for *BSD, Haiku, and a few others...).

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    4. Re:Amazing ... Not! by droptone · · Score: 1

      BTW, after seeing all the posts online about how many people hate the iPad even before it came out should have predicted it wouldn't sell at all - even though it seems to have sold pretty well so far. I guess their theory didn't predict that their theory failed. Oh wait, now that I've posted this it does predict it.

      Did you get a representative sample? Or are you just voicing the opinion of a small group of tech blogs?

      --
      Every post I make begins with the assumption P=~P.
  4. In other news, sheep go "bah"... by mwalleisa · · Score: 3, Funny

    Gee, spamming Twitter about a movie results in herds of sheep trampling a path to the box office? Yawn.

    --
    If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, what does your empty desk signify?
    1. Re:In other news, sheep go "bah"... by BRSloth · · Score: 1

      IMHO, that's why it can predict such thing: So far, Twitter seems "untainted" with companies false bloggers and such (let me emphasise the "seems" part), so people really take a bad word as a real, person-to-person, bad word and a good word about a movie as a real thing.

      Once people realize Twitter can be tainted as blogs and as any other social network, it will stop being so accurate.

  5. Right... by djupedal · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ...until Hollywood learns how to game Twitter. Should be any minute now...

    1. Re:Right... by macemoneta · · Score: 1

      ...until Hollywood learns how to game Twitter. Should be any minute now...

      That works both ways. We can use it to game the system to get the shows and movies we want made. All's fair.

      --

      Can You Say Linux? I Knew That You Could.

    2. Re:Right... by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      Don't you realize thats what this story is? They've already started the process ...

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
  6. snakes on a plane by Firkragg14 · · Score: 1

    Anyone remember when snakes on a plane got a massive budget increase due to all the talk about it on the internet then pulled in very little at the box office.

    1. Re:snakes on a plane by wjousts · · Score: 1

      Actually, Snakes on a Plane did open in the #1 spot, but it didn't take in as much box office that weekend as pundits were suggesting. It dropped off rapidly after that when people realized what a truly awful movie it was. We can only hope for a sequel "More Motherfucking Snakes on More Motherfucking Planes!".

    2. Re:snakes on a plane by Nadaka · · Score: 1

      The bar has been raised by the cinema experience of Giant Squid vs Giant Shark. The sequel to Snakes on a Plane will require a 300+ meter long rattle snake leaping from the ground to destroy a 747 at cruising altitude.

    3. Re:snakes on a plane by wjousts · · Score: 1

      Can I order my tickets in advance?

    4. Re:snakes on a plane by Nadaka · · Score: 1

      Sure you can, just like this guy...

      http://terminalgamer.com/2010/01/04/fan-waits-9-years-for-his-duke-nukem-forever-pre-order/

  7. Re:xkcd is not funny. Please stop linking to it. by AndrewNeo · · Score: 1

    Fixed that for myself.

    Fixed that for you.

  8. 35 yrs later by duckHole · · Score: 1

    shades of John Brunner's "Shockwave Rider"...

  9. Can Twitter predict the Stock Market? by reillymj · · Score: 1

    I'm sure some Gecko-type has already thought of this, and is trying it in a secret lab somewhere. Then again, if I was an investment banker, I'd be immensely greedy and paranoid and never tweet about any company I was interested in.

    1. Re:Can Twitter predict the Stock Market? by Jer · · Score: 1

      As a predictor, stuff like twitter or facebook or blogs can tell you what might be popular. Twitter is particularly a good indicator because with a few exceptions people use it as if it was a private conversation among small groups of friends even though in reality they're broadcasting to the entire world. That means you've got a good set of data from people in certain demographics (mostly people with extra time and money to spend on entertainment - exactly the demographic that movie marketers are looking for).

      If you're looking for stock picks, data off of twitter is probably not a good bet. The same folks who are going to be able to tell you what movies are going to be popular this weekend (not necessarily good - just popular) are probably not going to be able to give an indication of what stocks are going to be going up this week.

      OTOH, I suppose Twitter might be usable for a pump-and-dump scam. If you can figure out a way to get day traders twittering. But then, the yahoo finance message boards are already pretty good for pump-and-dump scams, and I'm not sure that twitter really provides anything new on that front.

  10. Social computing scientist? by gorrepati · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What the hell is that?

    --
    You will never have experience until after you needed it.
  11. Re:Attention samzenpus by PitaBred · · Score: 1

    But it used the magic phrase vis-à-vis. That means it has to be legitimate research, right?

    --
    My blog. Good stuff (when I remember to update it). Read it.
  12. sounds like... by hitmark · · Score: 2, Interesting

    what happened to ang lee's hulk, to the point where the movie corp wanted all mobile phones banned from showings of said movie, for fear that negative options relayed by sms where affecting box office returns.

    --
    comment first, facts later. http://chem.tufts.edu/AnswersInScience/RelativityofWrong.htm
  13. Wisdom of Crowds by mahadiga · · Score: 1

    Isn't this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_crowds

    --
    I'd like to buy homeland for our 10 million people. http://twitter.com/mahadiga