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iPad Is Destroying Netbook Sales
Hugh Pickens writes "Fortune magazine reports that sales growth of low-cost, low-powered netbooks peaked last summer at an astonishing 641% year-over-year growth rate but netbook sales fell off a cliff in January and shrank again in April — collateral damage, according to Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, from the January introduction and April launch of the iPad. In support of Huberty's theory, she offers a Morgan Stanley/Alphawise survey conducted in March which found that 44% of US consumers who were planning to buy an iPad said they were buying it instead of a netbook or notebook computer. In related news, Apple announced that it sold its one millionth iPad last week, just 28 days after its introduction on April 3. 'One million iPads in 28 days — that's less than half of the 74 days it took to achieve this milestone with iPhone,' says Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. 'Demand continues to exceed supply and we're working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more customers.'"
Geesh... "destroyed"? "fell off a cliff"?
no bias in this article
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Or maybe netbook sales are cratering because instead of delivering quality models with high performance and low power packed into a lightweight enclosure, companies like Dell have axed all but the most profitable models, and replaced SSDs with magnetic disks and raised prices to the maximum they can squeeze out of customers. Netbook selection is terrible now compared to what it was a year ago. Last year there were many models and there was a price war, now there are a few models and they're just crappy low-end notebooks.
Why on earth would you want to use an iPad to browse the internet if you have a laptop? Tiny screen, no Flash support, no keyboard... when did it become hip to use crippled devices?
I think it has to do more with market saturation than the iPad. All of the Soccer Moms and folks who wanted the small portable cheap computer picked them up over last year and the holidays. These aren't people on a 3 year HW replacement cycle and don't care about power so they're not going to go out and jump for another machine.
Enough iPad sensationalism.
I'm going to feel just a little bit sad for the owners of those million iPads when they drop the price and kick out the next version in 6 months. They'll be outraged, but Jobs will just say "hey, at least it wasn't 2 months this time!"
An iPad is a big iPod Touch. It's a toy. Fun for the whole family, and even geeks love them... but it is still a toy.
A Netbook is another name for a cheap laptop. You can do real work on a netbook, and by work I mean Microsoft Office and Quickbooks work.
So if people were buying netbooks just for fun, then maybe those who think they could have more fun with an iPad are opting for those instead, but it seems like the iPad is selling to a whole new audience that wouldn't have bought a Netbook to begin with like...
Apple users who wanted a Netbook (Apple only has expensive laptops)
When un-crippled devices proved to complex to use and maintain. The average person doesn't actually need a full-on PC for most tasks. The said, the iPad is damn expensive for a limited computing appliance.
Why on earth would you want to use an iPad to browse the internet if you have a laptop? Tiny screen, no Flash support, no keyboard... when did it become hip to use crippled devices?
Try it.
For the vast majority of end users, especially those who don't care what's running their devices, the iPad is a good enough substitute for a full laptop PC. The screen is big enough to do serious browsing (unless you use Flash...) and it doubles as a book reader/media player. The major problems I've always had with netbooks is the desktop OS (Linux or Windows) crammed onto a too-small screen, the speed and the tiny keyboards. I've tried to like them - I really have. But that form factor really stinks if you have bad eyes and big fingers.
(And no, I don't own an iPad. I'm the old fogey in the corner with a 14" laptop.)
Even with the lack of Flash,a keyboard and a mainstream OS, the iPad as a netbook replacement is not totally out to lunch. There are some situations where netbooks work well, usually they involve field workers in non-harsh environments who have to run full desktop apps but want a 2 pound laptop instead of a 5 pound one.
Growth in netbook sales is slowed down to "only" 6% YOY as of April. This means that they're just as strong as last year, just not going up at an insane exponential rate which is, by definition unsustainable for many generations. They are not *cratering* as the summary implies.
While it's true iPad cannot doesn't allow me to do everything my laptop does, I find that for most of the things I do with a laptop the iPad excels. Especially consuming content. Creating content is getting better (I'm more used to the keyboard and use an external BT keyboard for long writing sessions), iSSH makes it bearable to manage my servers remotely (the only servers I use anymore are "remote"), and when off work the iPad is a fantastic movie and gaming platform.
So, I am finding myself using my iPad more and my laptop less. (Ironically, I'm writing this from my MacBookPro :)
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People buy toys. . .
'One million iPads in 28 days -- that's less than half of the 74 days it took to achieve this milestone with iPhone,'
Isn't it crazy how fast people will belly up to throw cash at you when you're not also forcing them into a two year cellphone plan with AT&T with high monthly payments? I know you need a service plan to use the iPad's 3G but there's also a model with no 3G. I wonder what the breakdown of that million sales looks like (yes, I know the 3G just came out). I'd wager the faster adoption of the iPad is mostly due to the consumer's ability to make their own choices. Consumer options are a good thing. I know that's not the way Jobs likes to do things but that's just my analysis.
My work here is dung.
Nah, most of the /. crowd is formed of IT admins, programmers, and engineers, whose environment is saturated with computers and probably do not need a device that has less functionality than the one they sit in front of all day long. For the basic end-user, it's a nifty device. You're just getting a biased opinion here.
641% wow man.. thats a lot of growth, if they could keep that up the number of netbooks in the market doubles roughly every month, it would only take just under 3 years for the entire population of the world to have a net-book (starting with 1 net-book at the 1st month) isn't it more likely that the net book market has saturated itself. I find it hard to understand how people can compare these two different product types, these tablets don't even have keyboards, and cost at least 2wice as much. enough already with this apple out to conquer the world hogwash don't believe the hype
An iPad is really a "new class" of device: a "content access" tool rather than a "content creation" tool. A notebook is really good for creating stuff. But for viewing stuff, its actually decidedly second-class.
And netbooks are just small notebooks: with all the limitations that a notebook has.
An iPad is different: it actually sucks for creating content for the most part: the keyboard just is a steaming pile of "not good" compared with even the keyboard on the XO laptop. But for data access it is brilliant: Light weight, long lived, easy to use.
And with the app ecology, apps are just more "data to access", and its really good at that. I'd expect to see, eg, a lot of interesting industrial/business applications as well start to develop. Its not just a "for fun" device really, its just a reflection that there are different roles for devices, and apple built a specialist-in-a-different direction device.
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Its also entirely possible that people have begun to realize that netbooks are just annoying.
Too small for long term use, too large for stuffing in your pocket or a small purse, battery life no better than my MBP for the same tasks and utterly incapable of doing the same things. Not useful as a phone.
Netbooks were a cute fad but lets face it, they aren't really useful to most people and it took people a little bit to realize it.
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So what you are saying is that the ipad is worthless in your opinion, which is more relevant than the fact the ipad is doing very well. Slashdot hated the ipad but all of their misguided and out of touch opinions couldn't change the fact that the ipad is a good product from the standpoint of the manufacturer and the consumers who purchase it.
They were very cheap, but since the original EeeeeeeeeeeeeePC they've gradually crept up in price and now they're just too expensive for what they are.
I know. There should be vast numbers of $200 netbooks, and there aren't. The PC industry was terrified of that price drop, and with Microsoft's help, managed to fight it off.
I have several of the original EeePC machines. Their Linux has a built-in self-destruct feature. Their "union file system" loses inodes over time. As a test, I have one plugged in and completely idle; it loses about 1% of its inodes per day. When all the inodes are gone, the machine stops working. There is a workaround for this, which must be applied every 90 days of power-on time, or sooner if you actually use the machine. The vendor-recommended procedure, though, is to reinitialize the machine to the factory-empty state, losing all user files.
And people wonder why Linux hasn't succeeded on the desktop.
Friend of mine bought an iPad. It's already collecting dust according to him.
The actual worth of an iPad aside, your friend has a new piece of tech which people are lining up to buy at full retail and is still in limited supply? And he is letting it sit idle? He is either imaginary or an idiot or has never heard of eBay.
If Slashdot were chemistry it would look like this:Cadaverine
"it's worthless, mother, tell them it's worthless!" sulked Slashdot user Zironic. "There, there honey," his mother purred. "It's going to be alright. The iPad is worthless." In her heart, however, she knew that she was lying to him. As Zironic drifted off into sleep, she shed a tear of sadness for her sulking manchild. She knew that one day he would have to face the truth: he had no idea what he was talking about and everyone hated him.
Try it.
Pay for it for me.
Go to the Apple store and try it.
They show a chart that lists declines in Netbook YoY growth from July of 2009, and cite the iPad as being the reason why. The iPad wasn't even ANNOUNCED until January of 2010.
The chart doesn't list netbook sales, but rather the rate of growth over the last year. You'll note that netbook sales still have positive growth.
So despite the fact there was this sudden MASSIVE surge to buy netbooks in the past two years, netbook sales continue to grow. But the growth rate of that surge did not continue upward. And even though the decline started six months before anyone had heard of an iPad, clearly this is all about the iPad.
Bull-fucking-shit. But nice try.
That being said, I'd buy an iPad at $200. For $300 or more, I expect more PC-like functioanlity and would prefer a netbook. In fact, Asus makes a nice convertible netbook/tablet that is cheaper than the iPad, has 10 times the storage, a faster processer, a webcam, I can install whatever software I want, it runs Flash, has more RAM, has a full keyboard built-in when I want it, etc. etc. etc.
If I can get that at $450, why would I want to spend so much more for far less functionality?
Oh, the i-before the name!
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What technical knowledge do they lack? They don't need any. That's why they like Apple. That's why they like the iPad. Do you think you can gallop into the Apple store on a brilliant white steed and declaritively compare spec sheets and the consumer will be blinded by your glory and understand the error of their ways?
I don't think it's a sign of the end-times... it's a leisure device, it's instant-on and easy enough for kids to use without messing things up.
These people already have a computer for the heavy stuff...
Most people just want to google a term, play a quick game, or set the kids up in the backseat for a movie.
I said no... but I missed and it came out yes.
Why on earth would you want to use an iPad to browse the internet if you have a laptop? Tiny screen, no Flash support, no keyboard
When I wanted to sit on my comfy chair on my deck wrapped in a blanket with a coffee in one hand and /. in the other.
Or when I want to browse while standing for an hour on the train twice a day.
Or when I want to just not carry around a 5lb brick everywhere I go when not working.
Or when I don't want unblockable popups.
... when did it become hip to use crippled devices?
You mean like a motorcycle instead of a car?
You mean like a regular cell phone instead of a smart phone?
You mean like a laptop instead of a desktop?
Many people like to use whatever is appropriate to the task.
I have a netbook and an ipad and for me the ipad is a much, much better machine.
For one, it's battery life is astounding.
Secondly, the build quality is superb. It feels solid. The netbook in comparison is too flexible and feels very cheap.
Third, I like tools that do what they are designed to do well. For some, no flash is deal breaker. For me, I don't miss flash one iota.
I use the ipad for watching movies, email, surfing, reading, and games. In other words consuming content (ack - I hate that phrase). For these uses, it's hardly a crippled device. At least no more crippled than, say, a Nintendo DS or an XBox. Different devices, different uses. Personally, I'm a fan of simple tools that do a limited number of things well.
>Tiny screen?
Not. Smaller than a 15.6" laptop? Sure but bigger or equivalent to most netbooks.
At that price, it'd better be.
> no Flash support
We are still fracking talking about this? Please.
They still haven't fixed it, and they're clearly not going to. All the talk in the world about HTML 5 doesn't change the fact that many, many web sites use Flash, or that there's no HTML 5 equivalent of the Flash developer tools. Until either the iPad changes or the web changes, the iPad will be cut off from a big part of the web.
On screen keyboard in landscape mode does fine for typing pretty long missives
Having used an iPad myself, I beg to differ. I wouldn't recommend that screen for typing an SMS, much less a blog post.
It's really not "crippled" or "limited", not in the knee-jerk manner most consider. It's a nice productivity tool,
It's crippled in the sense that there are many applications you can't get, web sites you can't use, and tasks you can't perform with it, all because Steve has a chip on his shoulder. As for "productivity tool"... well, maybe with a Bluetooth keyboard hooked up. But at that point, you might ask yourself why you're trying to make it into something it doesn't want to be, and whether you might look a bit less silly using a device where the keyboard is attached to the screen.
and, it's a great device to have in the house or for travels. It does a ton of stuff.
Heh. You know what's an even greater device to have in the house or for travels, something that does even more stuff? A netbook. Comparable screen, lower price tag, actual keyboard, and uncrippled OS.
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There's an app for that:
http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/rotten-tomatoes/id342598232?mt=8
This is actually one of the things I'm a little bit worried about with the iPad. Rather than use the open, ubiquitous web, some are choosing to put up walls around their content by making it available through an app rather than the browser.
More likely though, I think sites like Rotten Tomatoes are generally working to get away from Flash and Silverlight. This, I think, is a good thing. There are enough iPad's out there to make moving away from Flash worthwhile, but not enough to make locking up the content in an app a good idea. I'm happy about this.
Really? You must be new to the computing world, I could give you a long list of laptops I've used that couldn't go above 800x600, 640x480 or even lower resolutions. I've also been using computers long enough to remember why "everyone" hates Microsoft...
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The people getting iPads DON'T WANT A BIG LAPTOP! They're getting the iPad specifically because it's NOT BIG. What part of that is so fucking hard to understand?!
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The slashdot crowd has been the vocal bunch that come out in every Apple article and moan and moan about how terrible all their products are, rather than simply skipping past.
Bonus points for "not another apple article" comments. You think the scroll wheel or page down key had never been invented.
Just look back over the early articles leading up to the launch - the overwhelming consensus was that it would tank, with some saying "it'll be great" some saying "who knows?" and some saying "only retards will buy one".
Now that it's flying off the shelves faster than the iPhone those opinions have all gone, to be replaced with "what is it for?" and "only yuppies are buying them".
I don't care one way or the other whether it succeeds, but a large portion of people here just can't leave it alone - it's not enough to just not buy one, it somehow must be killed with fire.
Exactly. Which is why you're never going to sell a million of anything you make in your life.
Slashdot slams Apple every single chance they get.
"Locked to no Apps, no one is going to buy that"
"No way to change a battery! No one is going to buy that"
"No flash, no one is going to buy that".
Please, someone stand up and accept the fact that you have no idea what drives the general public and that as much as you rant and rave, stuff sells.
Remember, Less Space than a Nomad. No Wireless. Has Lamely become synonymous with an MP3 player. Apple is the 400 lb gorilla when it comes to online audio sales.
There are a few Apple threads that I remember being some of the largest slashdot has ever had. It's like being turned down for a first date, you hate something so much because you refuse to accept the fact that maybe you're not the target demographic that you rant and rave about it and STILL miss the point.
The iPad is easy-to-use, and has a decent battery life. Flash issues aside, it's the perfect device for non-technical users. Sure, it doesn't do a lot of things well, but it does them "good enough" -- good enough that the non-technical users don't care or can't tell the difference. And many (most?) don't care if there isn't a physical keyboard -- a lot of people can only type via hunt-and-peck, and most of them probably don't care if they're pecking on a real or virtual keyboard.
Of course the iPad is disliked by a lot of people on slashdot, but advanced users aren't the target audience. Allow me to use a word that many people here might understand: it's for the "n00bs". Many consumers still have only little to modest computer expertise, and the iPad is a great, toaster-like device for them. (Apple will probably make a metric a**load more money selling to novices than advanced users.)
when did it become hip to use crippled devices?
Outside of /., it's called 'convenient', not 'crippled.'
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You're missing a distinction. We're trying to make the point that Apple products are crap and Apple supremacy is wrong, we're not saying it's impossible or even improbable. We just wish people didn't fall for their bullshit.
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(but so much more, including game and movie reviews)
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I call this the slashdot cycle.
1) Criticize a new device/technology because it isn't open/free enough for your personal tastes, and talk about how NO ONE WILL BUY THIS CUZ IT AIN'T FREE, AND CUSTOMERS VALUE FREEDOM!
2) Watch as people enjoy and buy/use the new device/technology
3) Complain about how WELL IT ISN'T USEFUL AS THIS OTHER THING THAT IS VERY DIFFERENT WHY DON'T YOU USE THAT? YOU'RE STUPID BECAUSE I'M A GENIUS.
4) Complain more and shoot down anyone who tries to explain the appeal, they're clearly a plant by corporations!
5) Repeat with next technology that comes along
There's not even a profit stage!
bullshit
No, you're wrong. Bullshit is companies like SCO, or Microsoft's blatant historical use of vaporware to instantly demolish other companies.
The fact that you can't make that distinction is why you don't get it, and use exactly the same hyperbole you accuse Apple of, is why the Apple haters are just as fucking tedious as the fanbois.
Being popular may not make it right, but it doesn't mean you couldn't STFU and go buy some Apple stock or something.
Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
This is just a bad article in general. They're reporting year over year growth of Netbooks, which was going to plateau eventually. They're still on track to sell more than 20 million netbooks this year. 1 million iPads displacing 1 million units of netbooks isn't an enormous drop - it's about 5% of sales. Tops. I know a lot of engineers who weren't considering a netbook at all, but wanted a new shiny apple toy, so they bought the iPad.
All the graph in the article does is illustrate a decline in growth of an established product. iPod sales growth has been declining too, but that's simply because literally everyone and their mother owns one now, and people are simply replacing them or buying their child their first iPod. Nobody's making splashy headlines about that. All products plateau eventually, and it happens sooner than later when their adoption rates skyrocket at launch.
moox. for a new generation.
Careful, you are in danger of making his point through use of unintended irony.
It may be "crap," "wrong," and "bullshit" but according to the market, it's still head and shoulders above all the other crappy bullshit that is flogged by Apple's competitors. This is where the nerd cognitive dissonance tends to kick in: "If *I* think it's crap, but the marketplace thinks it's vastly superior, the only way to resolve this paradox is to assume that the marketplace is profoundly stupid and duped by Apple's svengali-like marketing. Because it couldn't possibly be that I don't have a freaking clue what people want."
I think most things would make more sense if geeks coupled it to the fact that most consider their users to suffer from id10-t or PEBCAK problems. While that's not really true either, most people don't want a "computer" the way us geeks look at a computer. They don't want to know about CPU and RAM and GPU and so on, it's kind of like asking them to assemble a car by what engine, transmission, brakes and exhaust system go together. They want a car that solves a transportation problem. => limited models
Likewise with Apple's walled garden, honestly already people DO NOT know how to use their gizmos. Most of them will never ever see the fence, and if they do it'd feel tiny like the borders of North Korea. Geeks are like running full speed towards it and go like "See, there's a fence there" while others are like "Ok whatever, but what's everything else I haven't explored like? There *are* 200k apps here that do all sorts of cool shit." As many have said when they suggest a computer or internet driving licence, people don't know how to administrate their own systems. They depend on others whether it's their geeky kids, friends, family, computer shop or the support line or whatever. What the geeks are saying Apple takes away is something they already feel they have very little knowledge and control over. => don't care about lockdown
Also, geeks have a blind spot for missing user interface disasters, but common users have a blind spot for missing back end disasters. We try something, realize it's crap and move on. They try it, struggle, struggle some more and think computers are really, really hard or that they are dense. They have huge learning costs and only understand function, not concept so each application is almost like new to them. Users like being put in front of one piece of good software, it does not have to be the ultimate software of all time but better than trying to figure out which of five open source clones are actually any good. This is why they always ask for "brand" products like Photoshop, they don't know good from bad but assume that with a famous product it's as easy as it'll get. => iEverything
Apple makes products for the huge group who doesn't "really" want the complexities of those products, which turns out to be most of us. I have to admit that while I'm insanely geeky in some areas, for example my washing machine has more than a dozen programs and 95%+ of the time I use the basic 40 degree program. My photo camera has a bunch of manual settings but 95%+ of the time I just want to use the intelligent everything. Kinda like the Wii, I've managed to get even my parents to try it. They wouldn't touch PC or console games with a 10 foot pole. Any product you make that lets "everyone else" use something will be a huge hit. Just admit you're not in the "everybody else" category.
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Incorrect - the Ipad was hyped and advertised for several months. The 30 days was simply the final shipping time.
Not to mention that's been with vast amounts of coverage and advertising from the media, including Slashdot.
Compared to any given Netbook product
Can you tell me which specific netbook product gets three stories on Slashdot a day? Thanks. Hell, we don't even get that much for netbooks as a whole.
Nokia ship hundreds of millions of mobile computing devices a year - do we get stories about them, or how they're "destroying netbook sales" (or indeed, how they're "destroying Ipad sales")?