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MIT Says Natural Gas Best To Lower Carbon Emissions

eldavojohn writes "This week MIT released a comprehensive, hundred-page report entitled 'The Future of Natural Gas' that outlined the many scenarios the United States faces when aiming to reduce carbon emissions. From the New York Times recap: 'The scenario goes like this, according to MIT: Nuclear power, renewable energy, and carbon capture and sequestration are relatively expensive next to gas. Conventional coal is no longer a major source of power generation in the United States. "Natural gas is the substantial winner in the electric sector: The substitution effect, mainly gas generation for coal generation, outweighs the demand reduction effect."' Will this urging help to produce a policy shift from renewable energy (like wind) to natural gas for the United States?"

21 of 284 comments (clear)

  1. Natural gas - dependent upon fuel cost? by Firethorn · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Well, I've been an advocate of replacing coal power with nuclear power for quite some time, but even I'll admit that NG generally results in less than half the CO2 emissions for the energy production, and relative to a reactor is far cheaper to build. And nuclear promises to be cheaper than solar/wind for the amount of electricity produced.

    However, you need quite a lot of it. NG, while cheap in many areas, makes me hesitant because I believe that when we go 'full bore' we'd exhaust our supplies fairly quickly and have increased expenses. Thus I'd like to see nuclear electricity production while we keep NG for heating homes and chemical manufacturing. Heck, you'd have to be rather round-about to make steel using nuclear energy, you can use NG heat directly.

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    I don't read AC A human right
    1. Re:Natural gas - dependent upon fuel cost? by Overzeetop · · Score: 5, Interesting

      We need multiple sources. I like solar from a purist standpoint: it's the primary source for all energy on earth save geothermal and nuclear (though it could technically be responsible for those, we'll ignore that). Still, I think solar conversion to electricity is still a long way from long term commerical viability. (yes, it's been done, but I don't see anybody making a killing in solar farms, despite the energy source being free)

      Nuclear has the advantage of being cheap (at least, according to my electric bill, it's less than half the cost of coal per kWh)
      Solar has the advantage of being great for A/C induced peaking loads
      NG is very good for peaking loads which are not concurrent with solar generation

      Of course hydroelectric is great for peaking, too - especially if practiced like France and Switzerland. The Swiss buy power from the French (nuclear) during off-peak and use it to pump water into dammed lakes, then generate power through those dams during peak periods and sell it back to the French. The challenege is that there are only so many areas which can be powered this way do to the need for proper topography.

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    2. Re:Natural gas - dependent upon fuel cost? by jollyreaper · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Of course hydroelectric is great for peaking, too - especially if practiced like France and Switzerland. The Swiss buy power from the French (nuclear) during off-peak and use it to pump water into dammed lakes, then generate power through those dams during peak periods and sell it back to the French. The challenege is that there are only so many areas which can be powered this way do to the need for proper topography.

      I've got a feeling that we're going to see a lot of energy barter in the future. Equatorial sites have plenty of sunshine. Not saying this is 100% certain but I think it's very conceivable that we see solar harvesting at the equator with power shipped pole-wards by super-conducting transmission lines. Nitrogen is supposed to be rather affordable by cryogenic standards though we might need to see more materials breakthroughs to get the temperature a little higher before this idea becomes fully economical. And methods of storing off-peak power like you mentioned, that's going to be the real key for evening out production spikes. It will take some serious computer control to balance base-load with variable sources like that. Wind and solar guys say that the spikes average out to a steady load over an entire region but there's still the matter of wind and solar having their peak times.

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    3. Re:Natural gas - dependent upon fuel cost? by MillionthMonkey · · Score: 3, Interesting

      wait till you're bidding against (subsidized) PG&E to heat your home at 3X the current prices.

      I live in Santa Clara, which has its own non-PG&E electric service. (From "local politicians going into the electricity business", as that bitch sneered in the the slick commercials for Prop 16- which would have required 2/3 of all voters to approve of their locality moving away from PG&E. That commercial was on every fucking commercial break last month and the POS almost passed.) Santa Clara charges 8 cents per kWh.

      Lawrence Expressway is one block away, separating Santa Clara from Sunnyvale, which is served by PG&E. By my reckoning, electric bills in Sunnyvale are 50% higher, since the PG&E baseline rate is 12 cents per kWh. I don't know what this "3X rate hike" is all about, but I've heard it from other people in surrounding PG&E territory.

    4. Re:Natural gas - dependent upon fuel cost? by dkf · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Of course hydroelectric is great for peaking, too - especially if practiced like France and Switzerland. The Swiss buy power from the French (nuclear) during off-peak and use it to pump water into dammed lakes, then generate power through those dams during peak periods and sell it back to the French. The challenege is that there are only so many areas which can be powered this way do to the need for proper topography.

      Pumped storage is quite an expensive way to do electricity generation; there are considerable inherent losses in the system due to things like friction in pumps. On the other hand, it's the only known-viable large scale energy storage scheme; the other alternatives I've seen articles about (various kinds of batteries, pressurized gas, etc.) are neat but haven't demonstrated at anything like the scale of a pumped storage plant.

      And all you need to build one is two lakes/reservoirs close to each other with a big height difference. So, maybe not in most of the Mid-West, but there's got to be plenty of suitable places in the Appalachians or the Cascades. Maybe others too.

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      "Little does he know, but there is no 'I' in 'Idiot'!"
    5. Re:Natural gas - dependent upon fuel cost? by MorePower · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Most modern natural gas turbines are "combustion turbines", which means they don't generate steam to turn the turbine*. Instead they use the hot exhaust to directly turn the turbines. The modern designs I have worked with generally have a "duel fuel" option, allowing them to run off of diesel fuel as well. They can also run off of syngas, which is basically the same as natural gas (but synthetic not natural), which is made from coal. And I know of one that was modified to run off of hydrogen (it was at a refinery that produced hydrogen as a by-product of refining).

      Combustion turbines can burn basically anything that is a gas or can be atomized, it is a question of tweaking there combustion settings, comparable to making a car run off alcohol or whatever.

      *Most combustion turbines I've work with are "combined cycle" which means they've added a Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) to boil water from the exhaust of the combustion turbine. The steam is then used to turn a steam turbine generator to produce even more power.

    6. Re:Natural gas - dependent upon fuel cost? by Darkman,+Walkin+Dude · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Pumped storage is quite an expensive way to do electricity generation; there are considerable inherent losses in the system due to things like friction in pumps.

      90%+ efficiencies are not uncommon in the field. If you want to see inefficiences, try drilling a hole though the earth's crust at semi random locations to tap and process fossil fuels.

  2. Who paid for the report? by xzvf · · Score: 2, Interesting

    My first question on any study is who paid for it? That said, natural gas is a better alternative to oil and coal. The real problem with alternatives like solar, wind and to a lesser extent nuclear is the cost per Kwh. I can by electricity generated by coal, oil and gas between $1-2 dollars per Kwh. If I replaced my electric with solar panels and batteries, my cost would be $4-5 dollars per Kwh. Tax credits reduce that cost, but they are still being paid by someone. Natural gas and nuclear are excellent bridge technologies while alternatives are brought down in cost.

  3. Yeah, that will work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Burn more fossil fuel to lower CO2 emissions?

    And this:

    MIT projects natural gas vehicles will be 15 percent of the private vehicle fleet by 2050

    Manufacturers have been trying to introduce natural gas cars for decades. The technology is there, but nobody bought them and nobody will.

    The price of natural gas is coupled to the price of oil. Look at the economic wars being fought over natural gas in Europe right now. No way will this be cheaper than other fossil fuels.

  4. Who'da thunk it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Wow, burning methane (CH4) produces less carbon emmisssion than longer chain hydrocarbons, and especially less than coal which is ALL carbon.
    I guess nobody ever thought about that before.

    But hang on, what if we got our energy from sources that don't have any carbon. Nuclear, Hydro, wind and geothhermal. Or even nuclear fusion. Until we get our own fusion generators going, we can use the one thats 93 million miles away.

  5. Methane clathrate by Tisha_AH · · Score: 2, Interesting

    We will not burn up all of the natural gas deposits for centuries to come. There is much more methane (natural gas) in hydrates than in all of the possible traditional natural gas reservoirs worldwide.

    If you have been watching the news regarding the oil well disaster down in the Gulf of Mexico they have problems with hydrates condense out of the expanding column of oil and gas that forms hydrate ice crystals and blocks up the stack. (remember basic physics about expansion and temperature).

    Hydrate deposits could be exploited in a controlled manner with the modest introduction of heat into a deep deposit to liberate the gas. To stop a well from producing, remove the heat.

    --
    Tisha Hayes
  6. Natural gas supply is in decline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    In North America, conventional natural gas reserves have been in decline for a while, and it's not expected that trend will reverse as unconventional sources (shale gas and coal-bed methane) are brought on stream. There are also legitimate concerns about groundwater contamination in association with shale gas and coal-bed methane projects, although it can be done safely if the work is done properly. Investment in natural gas will continue because it is a good option: it's clean, has less CO2 output per unit energy than other fossil fuels, there is substantial infrastructure built to deliver it, there's a decent reserve already, and even as North American supplies continue to dwindle, there is also quite a bit available world-wide that can be delivered via liquified natural gas terminals at sea ports.

    However, supply of natural gas is still going to peak eventually like oil will. It's a temporary solution. So investment in renewable/sustainable energy sources should be the focus, and, no, policy should not shift from that. Natural gas certainly doesn't need any special financial encouragement because it's already an economically profitable option.

  7. Re:There's lots of natural gas by Nadaka · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Switching to natural gas is at best a temporary solution, buying us a few decades or a century at most. Fission can buy us many hundreds or even a few thousands of years. Of the technologies currently available, only solar offers a real long term solution for the bulk of our energy requirements.

  8. Re:What's with the title? by webdog314 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Only the title. Having read the review of the study (not the 100 page study itself) it seems that the study is a comparison of the various forms of energy production in the U.S. The study shows that natural gas is comparatively the cheapest bridge source for electricity production in terms of both cost (dollars) to produce and cost (in CO2, etc) to the environment. So my question was, why the focus on natural gas at all in the title? It may seem like a small thing, but in terms of presentation to the public it's huge. The title they used reads like an ad for the gas industry. Whereas, they could have chosen an unbiased title to give the study more credibility.

  9. Re:Carbon to Hydrogen Ratio by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 4, Interesting
    The price of natural gas is extremely low currently ($4-5/per million BTU) due to the economic recession. If the economy were to pick back up, the price would rise quickly, thereby cancelling out a great deal of the economic benefit:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energy-prices/

  10. Re:Clean Air, Dirty Water by cmdr_tofu · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So you use more natural gas, less oil, producing slightly less carbon, but poison a lot of groundwater. People are forced to import water from places that aren't poisoned, requiring expensive water transport, burning more hydrocarbon fuel negating any possible benefit from switching to natural gas :-/

    I guess hydraulic fracturing is the culprit, not natural gas, and the exemption for natural gas from being regulated can be overturned. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing#The_FRAC_Act_of_2009 Let's hope politicians get this one right.

  11. Re:Summary is BS by DarkOx · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I am getting a bit tired of everyone dumping all over coal. Anthracite coal is probably the biggest supply of accessible fuel this country has. If you care about energy independence coal IS part of the picture and should be a big part. Yes there are problems like what to do with the ash but nuclear has the problem of hazardous waste as well; and I am confident both can be solved.

    Coal can be used directly for heat in industrial processes as well and does not always have to be first used to generate electricity. You can't do that with hardly any of the renewables. I say put our energy in to figuring out how to scrub and sequester carbon efficiently and burn the heck out of our coal supplies; can't use them up if we try.

    --
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  12. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  13. Re:CO2 not a pollutant, NG has more greenhouse eff by Firethorn · · Score: 4, Interesting

    CO2 is not a pollutant. It is in fact essential for the Earth's life cycle. Plants would not survive without it.

    Water is not a pollutant, it is also essential in the earth's life cycle. We wouldn't survive without it. It still kills tens of thousands a year from overabundance.

    I'll note that my reasoning behind getting rid of coal plants has always been more due to the pollution they produce than the CO2 they release.

    No, the reason people are going for natural gas is the typical myopic management of today. Building a natural gas power plant is very cheap, even if the fuel isn't. Since people plan everything on the short term today, what matters is the low initial capital costs, even if you have to screw your customers in the long term.

    It's also easy. Nuclear everyone's afraid of even though it has fewer deaths involved with it than pretty much any other industry, and coal is dirty. So getting approval for a natural gas plant is relatively quick and easy.

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    I don't read AC A human right
  14. Re:Natural gas has one advantage over renewables by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Onsite renewables like wind and solar (especially solar thermal for water heating) don't need any transmission/distribution infrastructure changes to work.

    Where's your evidence that scaling up renewables like wind, solar, geothermal makes them no cleaner than coal or oil? Or creates anything like the dirty products of nuke plants?

    Yes, the future will probably have more nuclear and slightly less dirty exhaustible fuels like oil, coal and gas. But that's because those dirty old industries are still favored by subsidies and momentum. Not by physics or economics. The renewables are easier to scale, and the factors keeping their legacy competitors propped up are being steadily removed or overmatched by the new industries. We don't have to like the old stuff, and we don't have to keep it, either.

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    make install -not war

  15. Re:Natural gas has one advantage over renewables by sumdumass · · Score: 3, Interesting

    You don't need Ayn Rand or anything descending from the heavens to know that cost effectiveness is what is the issue. To date, solar simply isn't cost effective without subsidies, artificial inflation of other energy sources and the threat of other technology being regulated out of the markets. This also needs no tax cuts or anything because it's a simple fact of life. If you bank all your money on solar power, you will be a broke mother'fsker if the country moves to natural gas for it's carbon sequestering plans as solar will wither away with your savings.

    Look, it doesn't take a genius to see the outside forces at play here. But it does take a fool to ignore them in order to chastise your political enemies.