AI Predicts Manhole Explosions In New York City

reillymj writes "Every so often, a 300-pound manhole cover blows sky high in Gotham, followed sometimes by a column of flame and smoke. (There are a few hundred 'manhole incidents' per year in the city, not all of them this dramatic.) Researchers from Columbia University applied machine learning algorithms to Con Edison's warren of aging electrical wires and sewage access points around Manhattan. As the system learns where dangerous mixtures of sewer gas and decrepit wiring are likely to come in contact, it makes forecasts about trouble spots, including where the next explosion may occur. The team has just completed rankings for manholes in Brooklyn and the Bronx, and plans to return to Manhattan's grid, armed with the most recent inspection and repair data." The research was published in the July issue of Machine Learning.

Comments

death by manhole cover?

[roman_mir]

I wonder if anybody has ever died from being hit on the head with one of these, seems it is likely. Shouldn't there be a way to secure the covers to the ground with a bolt that would at least cause the cover to not fly up but just turn over in case of an explosion?

Re:death by manhole cover?

[PopeRatzo]

I wonder if anybody has ever died from being hit on the head with one of these

Obviously, there is some danger, but still, how cool is it that manhole covers are shooting into the air in a column of flame?

Just a little something to make a New Yorker's day just that much more stressful.

WTF?

[Dr. Hok]

That's a joke, right? Exploding manhole covers? In pre-Snake Plissken-New York? OMG

In all seriousness

[dkleinsc]

So we have millions of people desperate for work, and a whole lot of dangerous wiring all over New York City. Why aren't we (and by "we", I mean ConEd or any level of government) investing in training up as many electricians as we can and replacing the bad wiring while it's relatively cheaper to do so?

Oh, wait, maybe because there are no financial consequences to any organization if a manhole cover gets launched 300' up and lands on some 3-year-old.

Re:In all seriousness

[RivenAleem]

Clearly we need better tombstone technology

Re:In all seriousness

[fuzzyfuzzyfungus]

I suspect that there are several complicating factors:

Getting electricians who are competent to work on high voltage or high current distribution systems(and not make the situation worse) is probably a trifle harder than getting ones capable of doing home wiring without the place burning down(the latter, now that the fad for building shitty houses in the exurbs that nobody wants, should be in excellent supply). Not impossible; but you are probably looking at a nontrivial amount of theory, plus some time following around people who know what they are doing.

Second, in dense urban areas, maintenance often means cutting power to whiny people, or digging up roads for days at a time that a bunch of complainers were trying to "commute" on. I strongly suspect that, if you cornered the highest ranking guy at ConEd who wears a hard hat for purposes other than publicity photos, he could tell you all kinds of upgrades and repairs that he would love to make. After the third scotch, he could probably stop shaking and tell you about the various obstacles in his way...

Re:In all seriousness

[Nadaka]

An investment in repairing decaying infrastructure and even putting in new infrastructure is not a zero sum game. Let the infrastructure decay long enough and you will no longer be able to support industry and commerce, leading to an exponential rate of decay. Meanwhile, working laborers will be able to afford to consume and increase the growth of industry and commerce.

The New deal gave us a national network of interstates, bridges and highways that have dramatically increased the productivity of the nation as a whole for the last 50 years. These were only designed to last about 50 years. Now after 30+ years of neglect and decay they are falling apart. Now more than ever, we need a reinvestment in national infrastructure. I am not talking about just roads and bridges; but power, water and information distribution systems as well.

Re:A couple vent holes would let the gas escape

[aaarrrgggh]

Southern California Edison requires two ventilating pylons for each manhole. They are much bigger than you might expect, and need to be spaced apart. It greatly increases planning complexity.

Methane build-up is only one cause though. Venting that causes ...odors... that people tend to not want to be near. The more common cause is failure of oil-filled equipment ranging from link switches to transformers to oil-insulated cables. When these go you need someplace for the explosion to expand to... or you will destroy everything in the manhole.

This is an interesting solution to the problem, but I have trouble understanding how it is more effective than root-cause analysis and post-incident review of data they already have. It isn't like the combination of factors is the problem... more like aging and over-burdened equipment that should already be on a predictive-maintenance plan.

Re:Rio de Janeiro

[phoenix321]

It's sewage pipes. There's some water in there, of course, and it could overflow with the next thunderstorm.