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AI Predicts Manhole Explosions In New York City
reillymj writes "Every so often, a 300-pound manhole cover blows sky high in Gotham, followed sometimes by a column of flame and smoke. (There are a few hundred 'manhole incidents' per year in the city, not all of them this dramatic.) Researchers from Columbia University applied machine learning algorithms to Con Edison's warren of aging electrical wires and sewage access points around Manhattan. As the system learns where dangerous mixtures of sewer gas and decrepit wiring are likely to come in contact, it makes forecasts about trouble spots, including where the next explosion may occur. The team has just completed rankings for manholes in Brooklyn and the Bronx, and plans to return to Manhattan's grid, armed with the most recent inspection and repair data." The research was published in the July issue of Machine Learning.
I thought those manhole popping incidents were due to the heavy microwave emitter vaporizing the water?
Information theory is life. The rest is just the KL divergence.
I wonder if anybody has ever died from being hit on the head with one of these, seems it is likely. Shouldn't there be a way to secure the covers to the ground with a bolt that would at least cause the cover to not fly up but just turn over in case of an explosion?
You can't handle the truth.
That's a joke, right? Exploding manhole covers? In pre-Snake Plissken-New York? OMG
Say out loud: I'm an Aspie and I'm somewhat proud, I guess. Uh. Can I write an email in all caps instead? Hm...
I predict massive manhole manhole cover blowouts and big explosions anywhere within a mile radius of the next Michael Bay movie.
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
The skyline and culture for Gotham always seemed more like New York City. wikipedia also identifies Gotham City with NYC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotham_City#Origin_of_name
Metropolis, meanwhile, appeared Midwestern in the early comics, although wikipedia claims that they haven't been consistent: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolis_(comics)
Couldn't they harness all that energy that blows up manhole covers into some kind of renewable energy? Feed the sewer gas back into natural gas lines, attach pistons to manhole covers, etc
So we have millions of people desperate for work, and a whole lot of dangerous wiring all over New York City. Why aren't we (and by "we", I mean ConEd or any level of government) investing in training up as many electricians as we can and replacing the bad wiring while it's relatively cheaper to do so?
Oh, wait, maybe because there are no financial consequences to any organization if a manhole cover gets launched 300' up and lands on some 3-year-old.
I am officially gone from
New York is Metropolis.
Chicago is Gotham.
Gotham is New York. This is a popular name for the city that dates from the Nineteenth Century (Washington Irving in 1807 to be precise).
The association with Bat Man is due to a DC writer's decision to invoke this nickname of the actual city of New York to evoke its essence in the fictional city.
Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
No Al is a hologram projected from the real person in the future... He actually doesn't predict it himself he uses Ziggy a supercomputer with a personality, to do the actual predictions. He is telling us this so his friend Sam Becket (who looks a lot like Captain Archer from Star Trek Enterprise) can Quantum Leap again hopefully back to his own time...
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
Southern California Edison requires two ventilating pylons for each manhole. They are much bigger than you might expect, and need to be spaced apart. It greatly increases planning complexity.
Methane build-up is only one cause though. Venting that causes ...odors... that people tend to not want to be near. The more common cause is failure of oil-filled equipment ranging from link switches to transformers to oil-insulated cables. When these go you need someplace for the explosion to expand to... or you will destroy everything in the manhole.
This is an interesting solution to the problem, but I have trouble understanding how it is more effective than root-cause analysis and post-incident review of data they already have. It isn't like the combination of factors is the problem... more like aging and over-burdened equipment that should already be on a predictive-maintenance plan.
One time I witnessed one of these explosions in Boston, and let me tell you, it's quite impressive! It was a hot August day and I was standing about 20 ft away from it, when out of nowhere, BOOMBOOMBOOM! There were actually a series of explosions that knocked the manhole cover a foot or two in the air each time, and each time the cover came back down perfectly on the hole, as if nothing ever happened. There was a college kid who was even closer to it than I was. He was just a few feet away when it happened and I could see that it shook him up pretty badly.
I asked the workman who was there a short time later what exactly had happened and he said a transformer had blown.
The News Building in New York was the basis for the Daily Planet in the first two Superman movies. For reference: http://www.nyc-architecture.com/MID/MID014.htm
As a side note, if you're in New York go visit the lobby of the building and walk around the globe exhibit therein. Look at the floor and note the distances to various locations. The walls surrounding the exhibit have clocks for different parts of the world as well.
We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
but can it predict whether it lands heads or tails?
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Prisencolinensinainciusol. Ol Rait!
Too bad, because if it had been published in the Journal of Machine Learning Research instead, people might actually be able to read it.
10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
A friend of mine who does some professional photography takes some really cool pictures while "draining". There are a lot of neat places down there!
Yes there are.
But you can die in the drains - and it can happen very quickly.
Sewer gas is mostly methane but may include hydrogen sulfide, ammonia, methane, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Improper disposal of petroleum products such as gasoline and mineral spirits can add to the fun. [freely adapted from the Wikipedia]
Methane is something to be feared:
Two kids among five killed by methane gas
Con Edison blind-tested the team’s model by withholding information on a recent set of fires and explosions. The top 2 percent of manholes ranked as vulnerable by the algorithm included 11 percent of the manholes that had recently had a fire or explosion, Rudin notes.
According to the article, there are about 51,000 manholes in New York. A few hundred explosions occur every year. (Lets say 300). So the algorithm listed (51,000*.02)=1020 manholes that were high risk. Out of that 1020 manholes, they were correct on (300*.11)=33 manholes.
In my industry, we would call this a complete failure. Even the weather forecaster would call this a failure. It reminds me of Demolition Man
Chief George Earle: We can just wait for another code to go red. And when Phoenix performs another Murder Death Kill, we'll know exactly where to pounce.
John Spartan: [sarcastic] Great plan.
Chief George Earle: [not realising the sarcasm] Thank you.
Erwin: He likes your plan, Chief!
...err, foreigners. Don't use words like "manhole" in headlines. My native tongue isn't English, and you don't want to know what kind of associations comes to a foreign mind while reading the word "manhole".
On second thought, let's not go to Camelot. It is a silly place.
The gas involved here is from the sewer system, not "gas lines". Access to the sewer system is through the passageways for electric, water, etc., which are above.
You Brits are so soft. I suppose that an average British family can expect their children to survive into adulthood. What a bunch of pampered pussies.
Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
It's sewage pipes. There's some water in there, of course, and it could overflow with the next thunderstorm.