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Xbox Head Proclaims Blu-ray Dead
Blacklaw writes "Microsoft has sided with Apple in a rare case of solidarity between the two companies, and declares that Blu-ray will be 'passed by' as a high-definition format. In many ways, it's hard to disagree. US markets have seen the demand for legal digital downloads of PC games exceed sales of the physical object for the first time, and Apple famously refuses to put a Blu-ray drive in its Macs, as Jobs prefers to send people towards iTunes to download their entertainment. That said, there's an argument for physical media, too. A recent survey suggested that the majority of gamers prefer physical discs, and digital downloads have the secondary effect of entirely cutting out the popular market for second-hand films and games — a plus for publishers, but a big negative for the consumer."
I never thought I would say it, but I can now quite easily envision a day very soon when all my new media (games, movies, music, TV shows, books, etc.) will belong to studios, software companies, publishers, etc.--with me just renting it. There will be no such thing as buying a used book, or a used videogame. I will never be able to resell any media that I "buy." If the studio decides to have a moritorium on a movie (like Disney so often does), they will just be able to flick a switch at any time and turn my copy of that movie off. Publishers will be able to edit all my books retroactively. When a director decides he doesn't like the ending of his movie, he can change it and force that change on everyone who owns it. If a studio goes bankrupt and takes down their servers, all my movies from them will turn to digital dust. If a judge issues a court order, all copies of a piece of media will evaporate with a single command from a media server somewhere. And when my internet goes down, so does every piece of media I own.
I will own nothing. The media companies will control how I watch or use my media, when I use it, where I use it, and how long I use it, and even *if* I can use it. I will either be completely at their mercy, or forced to resort to law-breaking to enjoy my own media as I wish.
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
Eventually, yes...but I think optical media will still be around for a while.
Purely from a gaming perspective, it will be interesting to see if Microsoft includes Blu-Ray in its next Xbox. I doubt the next Xbox will be far enough in the future to support only digital downloads (due to ISP bandwith concerns), they won't be able to just stick with DVD9, and they would be pretty stupid to try to release their own optical format.
All that being said, I'll agree that Blu-Ray is likely the last (or the second to last) optical media standard that will ever hit mainstream status.
Living With a Nerd
The sales figures for blu-ray seem to indicate otherwise. Sales are up over 68% year over year, marketshare has nearly doubled year over year (2009 to 1020).
Of course there are dynamics at work outside of the straight consumer choice angle. There is the control afforded the media companies via downloadable media to consider as well. That may be what these guys are relying on for their opinion. The question then is whether the sheep are willing to follow where they are being led.
Now I can finally get of the fence and order my new HD DVD player! Awesome.
The point of HD is high quality, right?
So, in which fantasy land do these streamed or downloaded films match the 20-30Mb/s data rate of playing a film off Blu-Ray? Or have they managed to invent some magical new codec that's ~10x as efficient as what you find on disk without losing quality?
Enjoy downloading your high resolution but blocky and fuzzy mess. I'll stick to a high quality, sharp picture thanks.
You know the story of the frog in the cauldron, right? If you put a live one in a cauldron with boiling water, he will leap out as soon as he touches the water. But if you put it there and slowly heat up the water, he won't notice until it is too late. Guess what the content owners are doing to the consumers.
Where is that guy who'd die defending what I had to say when I need him?
Technically, the guy says that he predicts the format is dying (i.e. bluray is currently in use but he forsees the day that his approach, downloads, will overtake physical media). He doesn't actually say that it's dead (past tense) like the headline states.
Or he thinks we do.
"CD Quality" is dead, to be replaced by downsampled and compressed mp3s
"Bluray Quality" is dead, to be replaced by downsampled, compressed iTunes downloads, streamed netflix/comcast, Hulu etc..
Hell, even the stuff on TV that is claimed to be "HD" is compressed by your cable provider. It's a shame as a Bluray just provides that much more content than some compressed/re-encoded file. While it's not as easy to tell when watching "HDTV" on a iPhone or iPod. When you have a 50in TV and a 5.1 stereo, you can tell.
Steve Jobs' motto should be, "Compressed media, through earbuds, it's good enough."
I have an installer, I have the game files
The installer requires a connection to a server that Activision Blizzard can shut down at any time.
If you so desire, you can burn everything that you "do not own" over to a disc and voila! you now have a physical representation of your ownership.
How does this store the state of Internet activation of the copies that you own?
It doesn't cost much if any more to manufacture a Blu-Ray than a DVD.
Well, maybe not for large runs, but apparently the AACS yearly license fee's can exceed the cost of the disk duplication for small runs. Originally this was one of the HD-DVD advantages (used existing DVD replication lines, with minor upgrades, rather than replacing the duplicators). Apparently the cost difference vs DVD is still fairly significant for DL BR's (>$1) (someone has to amortize the cost of buying the duplicators). This may not seem like a lot if the movie is selling for ~$20, but it makes a diffrence if your selling in the walmart bargin bin for $4.
Still, the studios always use the lure of new technology to raise prices. They did the same thing with DVD vs VHS, and CD vs tape. Initially they were just "passing on additional costs", but the price hikes stuck long after the new technology became mainstream.
Other than that I generally agree with you.