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Humans Will Need Two Earths By 2030

An anonymous reader writes "A recent report warns that humans are overusing the resources of the planet and will need two Earths by the year 2030. The Living Planet Report tells that the demands on natural resources have doubled in the past 50 years and are now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half."

33 of 738 comments (clear)

  1. Bull by Anrego · · Score: 4, Insightful

    .. and we've run out of ipv4 addresses "in about a year" for the last decade or so..

    and people will probably pay about as much heed to this warning as they do to ipv4 exhaustion.

    AND just like ipv4 exhaustion, nothing serious is going to be done about this until stuff actually starts falling apart. And by falling apart I don't mean charts and graphs, I mean "The Day After Tomorrow" falling apart. And even then...

    1. Re:Bull by SerpentMage · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I rather doubt we will have a "day after tomorrow", things don't happen like that. Instead I see a mechanization of our nature. For example, imagine a sort of nature where things are completely recycled? Sound far fetched? Consider how Switzerland is essentially self-sufficient in copper. Does Switzerland have copper mines? Nope not even close. Copper can be easily recycled and hence Switzerland recycles their own copper. This goes towards rare earths, etc, etc.

      While many people believe that we waste, waste, waste, there are many pockets of the world that are now becoming adapt at living with little. Classic example is Israel. Israel can grow crops with water amounts that makes everybody else blush with embarrassment. That is the future...

      --

      "You can't make a race horse of a pig"
      "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
    2. Re:Bull by MoonBuggy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Precisely. These kind of projections invariably fail to take into account even the most basic ideas about supply and demand. As we begin to run lower on a given resource it becomes increasingly more viable to recycle it or look for alternatives. In most cases this happens without even especially inconveniencing people - everyone might grumble about fuel prices, but then they just drive a little less, the market for more efficient cars grows, and not that much changes in our day to day lives.

    3. Re:Bull by Ironsides · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Expanding on the search for alternatives, they also fail to account for changes in technology. Whale Oil was replaced by natural gas. The same will happen when Coal, Oil and Gas start to become scarce. Fusion may or may not be viable by that point but we still have Hydro, Wind and Solar going in the mean time.

      --
      Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
    4. Re:Bull by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      With the Earth, don't expect any such workaround.

      Yes we can, and are actively working towards them even as I type this.

      The workarounds include higher efficiency devices (e.g. iPad/Mac Mini/laptop instead of a massive gaming desktop), lowered consumption (when gasoline hits $5/gal in the US, odds are excellent that we'll all be driving less), and a different way of providing the goods (locally-sourced and produced foods instead of container-ship shipped, etc).

      Long-term, this also includes starting colonies off-Earth, or at least having commercial space mining and production (which in turn expands the resource pool for a lot of things, from energy to minerals, to living space when we start looking centuries ahead). We're doing space tourism now (well, not-quite-LEO), and with commercial space industry warming up, it is not impossible (or even improbable) to consider viable commercial space entities making regular trips up and back by 2030. Consider that the first airplane flight happened in 1903, and we had commercial passenger flight by 1930.

      This has nothing to do with "left" or "right", and using such designations will only muddy the water (and degenerate the debate). Please refrain from doing so.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    5. Re:Bull by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What Carter was discussing was resources in the USA, at projected increased rates of consumption. Since we passed peak oil in the continental USA in the 70s, this was not inaccurate. I don't think it ever occurred to him that we were collectively such self-absorbed greedy obtuse little wussies that we would let ourselves become dependent on the Arabs, Russians and Mexicans for the life blood of our economic viability and strategic safety (i.e. Oil).

      Surprise!

      --
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    6. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Funny, I could have sworn that the US still has the worlds largest supply of oil shale. Plus oil sand. Plus coal. Plus plenty of offshore oil, and oil in Alaska. I guess "peak oil" to you just means "we have less than we used to"?

      To most people, "peak oil" is the point at which production is at a peak. After this point, a country (or the world) is _producing_ less then they used to. Unless the oil shales have reversed the trend in the US, it does seem like that point has been reached.

      A relevant graph from wikipedia

    7. Re:Bull by IWannaBeAnAC · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If that statement were true, we'd be starving (needing 1.5 earths to survive). Clearly the fellow has no idea what he's talking about.

      OMG ur right - teh author is an idiot who failed first year logic!

      Actually, no - he means that demand is outstripping what the Earth can sustainably provide. Ie, humanity grows a fair amount of food, but only at the cost of chopping down huge swathes of forest every year. And in fact, 1 billion+ people are starving or malnourished.

    8. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Hmmm. I'm a little confused by your assumption that everyone has their own personal definition of what "peak oil" means. I'm fairly certain that there is only one accepted meaning for the term, however useful or useless. I mean, I'm all for refining the usage of words and technical terminology - but not to the point of having individual relationships with words.

      I don't find myself discussing peak oil very often, but if I wanted a term that meant "the point at which production starts to decline" then I think it would come in pretty useful....

    9. Re:Bull by Goody · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Bad analogy. "Peak nuclear" is merely due to a lack of construction of nuclear power plants, not lack a lack of nuclear fuel. Peak oil is due a dwindling amount of oil that can be economically extracted.

      --
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    10. Re:Bull by mav092588 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      He means that a drastic supply shock, like the one being hinted at in the article, would have far bigger consequences than simply influencing people to not drive as much. What happens when they CAN'T drive as much because oil is so expensive? They won't be able to get to their jobs, get to stores, turn on their lights (remember, EVERYTHING runs on fossil fuels). Sure, we may eventually find a suitable substitute; but we don't yet have the infrastructure to supply wind/solar power to the country, much less the world. In the meantime, it would massively fuck up the labor markets and bring every single economy to their knees.

    11. Re:Bull by Mr+Z · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Externalities are effects that change the value of goods for persons not engaged in a transaction, of which regulation is an example. (I want clean air and water; I don't care about your process for manufacturing widgets. Widgets are not my concern, but I get my clean air and water, and your widgets are more expensive, a negative externality for you.)

      In the absence of the regulation, the pollution is a negative externality that affects the people not interested in the widgets. The widget producer has imposed an external cost on people not interested in widgets. If those people push back (ie. require the widget producer himself to absorb the cost through regulation or other means) so that the cost of cleaning up the pollution is included in the cost of the widget, then that cost is internalized.

      Using your example: If you start and end with clean air and clean water, there's no transaction with a cost to externalize to the widget producer. If you achieve that goal by regulating the widget producer, you've merely prevented the widget producer from externalizing a cost. You haven't externalized one of your costs onto him. You didn't have a cost to externalize. "Keeping the air clean" is not a transaction.

      Therefore, calling the regulation an external cost to the widget producer in this case is incorrect. An externality is something that doesn't show up in the final price of the good or service. Forcing an externalized cost back into the price internalizes the cost. The force itself isn't not an externality.

      By introducing or maintaining government regulators, however, you open the doors for regulatory capture, and the operating market is the competition for influence over regulators, rather than the open market.

      A very good point also.

    12. Re:Bull by b4upoo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Oil shales and oil sands are a disaster to the environment. Nothing could be more destructive to the environment than the massive strip mining it would take to recover that kind of oil.
                              Coal is so nasty that all use of coal should be illegal and reason to kill off any nation allowing its use. If you burn coal you will saturate the soil with mercury among other things.
                              And you fail to take into account such issues as running out of drinking water. Frankly water could get so expensive that the price of food will exceed your ability to purchase it.
                              There is simply no way to keep going without some deeply radical changes even if they ruin your expectations in life.

    13. Re:Bull by Darkness404 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Good luck finding people who support nuclear fission. Even though it is one of the safest, most economical, sources of power so called "green" activists will prevent us from building any more. Its becoming increasingly obvious that the environmentalist movement doesn't care about us being sustainable, but rather us living like we did 300 years ago.

      --
      Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
  2. Ridiculous by scottbomb · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Haven't "scientists" been saying stuff like this since about the mid-1800s? "Peak Oil", "Population Overcrowding", "Global Warming"... all modern-day myths that never seem to die no matter how much they're refuted.

    1. Re:Ridiculous by sqrt(2) · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Packing everyone into 8x10 cells, isn't an acceptable solution to me. Any solution that doesn't allow for wide open space of undeveloped land, wilderness, forests, jungles, deserts, is suboptimal. We could cram everyone into skyscrapers that cover the entire earth in one giant planet wide city, but what kind of life would that be? Quality of life and quality of our living space are important things to consider. Humans were not meant to be packed like sardines into crowded cities with no where to escape to. The health effects both known and unknown would be profound.

      --
      If you build it, nerds will come. Soylentnews.org
  3. Another low point by groomed · · Score: 5, Insightful

    What is the purpose of this post? What does it even mean? What is the purpose of posting a link to a nebulous summary of a highly suggestive report on an extremely politically charged subject on a site that bills itself "News for Nerds"?

    1. Re:Another low point by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sensationalism. Trolling. Flamebait.

      Welcome to the machine.

  4. Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by bananaendian · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Quick, someone say "we're using the resources at a larger rate than the earth can provide" ! before the cornucopians come out of their caves to declare infinite growth through infinite resources.

    The bottle maybe big but the spout is killing us.

    --
    www.tribalnetworks.org - helping tribal people around the world to own their own means of high-tech communications
  5. Misleading by ian(at)union.io · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This has F-U-D written all over it. Yes, we might need 2.75 Earths worth of *some* minerals or resources, such as tungsten or cork trees, in 20 years, but we certainly do not need 2.75 Earths worth of other, vaster resources, such as breathable air or silicon. To say that we'd need two Earths in order to quench our ravenous thirst for light bulb filaments is overkill, and certainly does more to make me discount these studies than think poorly of how humanity manages the resources we have.

  6. Regulation of births is needed. by Bluude · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So when are we going to start regulating birth rates? I know this is seen as racist by many, since the minorities are the main ones reproducing at an alarming rate, with obvious octomom exceptions, but it is about the future of our planet and the survival of our race at this point. Race isn't even a factor.

    1. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Penguinisto · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Regulate them by increasing affluence. Worked for Europe and the US (and various other first-world regions of the world...)

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  7. Consider the source by davev2.0 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Somehow I doubt that the groups who created this report are impartial and it is well known that if one goes looking for a specific conclusion, one will find the conclusion whether the conclusion is correct or not.

  8. Re:And the religions of the world.... by mc6809e · · Score: 4, Insightful

    still refuse to discuss population control.

    And so do the non religious, unfortunately. Worse, they seem intent on subsidizing the fecundity of the stupid at the expense of the responsible.

  9. Re:I call BS by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 3, Insightful

    you do realize that sometimes adapting and surviving might include the fall of modern society and a return to agrarian, low power, mechanization through brute force life of the 17th century, right? are you able to survive like that? I be 99% of the western culture is not and will die.

  10. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Fnkmaster · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You are painting with an excessively broad brush here.

    You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want pesticides all over your fruits and vegetables.

    You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want your chicken and cows raised in factory farming conditions, fed hormones, antibiotics, and the cheapest foodstuff imaginable to fatten them up as quickly as possible.

    Why do you need mystical mumbo jumbo to be aware of the major nutritional differences between wild-caught fish and farmed fish, that are principally due to their different feeding habits.

    So yeah, some of the stuff labeled "organic" that's basically identical to conventional stuff may be a rip-off, but there is plenty for a purely scientific, rational-minded person to critique in our industrial food system and plenty of reasons to avoid certain food produced by them.

  11. Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The overpopulation myth. Bottom line - we could provide for every single person living on this planet with just the resources inside the US. Never mind the rest of the world. We're a LONG way from overpopulation... We have a distribution - not resource - problem to solve.

    --
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    1. Re:Shameless self promotion by Bayoudegradeable · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Solving that distribution problem wouldn't take more resources now, would it? Moving all "that food we can produce" would happen with magic fairy dust, right, not fossil fuels. Distributing all that food would happen with magic neo-awesome materials, not vessels made of iron. And certainly, we'd grow all the food the world needs with mythical unicorn tears, and not the already stretched supply of clean, fresh water. Sure, it's a distribution problem that will NOT BE FIXED without massive amounts of... gasp!... resources. You don't have to believe we are running low on many key components to modern life. In 30 years from now you will live it. And if China and India come anywhere close to a fully developed economy that allows the majority of its residents to live "modern" lives you'll be lucky to get 15 years of your comfortable life before the serious difficulties begin. What's easier to accept, "This is a load of crap! Pass me the bucket o' wings, I gotta watch this in high-def" or... "Damn it, I'm a part of the problem, too!?"

      --
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  12. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Affluence = population control. Note how Europe and the US are experiencing all of their population growth now due to immigration? It doesn't require mandatory birth control measures (or enforced abortion laws, etc) to keep the population down.

    All you really have to do is provide the masses with a better form of retirement plan than: 'have a shitload of kids so that at least some will live long enough to care for you when you get old'.

    --
    Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  13. Re:It may happen one day... by Penguinisto · · Score: 3, Insightful

    To be fair, the radical (on either side of a debate) always have a knack for exaggeration. This shouldn't deter us from taking at least some measures towards better efficiency and at the same time expanding resources available.

    --
    Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  14. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Uh oh, another "non-profit" group must need money to supplement their jet's and expensive dinners.

    That is a stupid argument. Imagine you see someone disemabarking from a private jet, wearing a suit that costs more than the salaries of you and I combined, just so that they can attend an expensive dinner in another city. Which is more likely?

    1. They are a climate scientist (or member of a tree-hugging, non-profit group).
    2. They are a mining executive.

    Which side of this argument has the most financial interest in arguing either for or against limiting our use of Earth's resources? Let's face it, you don't get super rich by becoming a climate scientist.

    It reminds me of when the three CEOs of the car industry all took private planes to lobby Washington for a taxpayer handout. But no, I am sure that you are right that it is the tree-huggers who are the ones trying to greedily screw us all for money.

  15. Re:Demographics will tell the tale by khallow · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Anyway, I live in Cairo, Egypt at the moment. It's a city of 20M people and growing bigger every day. This is the future for most of the world, where most of the growth is happening.

    And if these cultures don't straighten out their act, they'll also be the places where most of the population die-off occurs. Further, population growth doesn't equal economic growth. Most of the places with negative population growth still have positive economic growth.

  16. Well, of course. by Animats · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Of course. Human civilizations are about 3000 years old, but industrial civilization is only 200 years old. Only in the past 100 years has large-scale resource extraction, large enough to make a big dent in potential supply, been feasible. The really rich ores, like veins of copper with over 1% metal, are long gone. Over the next century, lots of stuff is going to run out. Oil production peaked in 2005. There hasn't been a major new energy source in the last half century; just improvements on previous ones.

    The "free market will solve all problems" crowd was insisting that peak oil would never happen. But it did. The price of oil has tripled without an increase in supply.