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'Cellphone Effect' Could Skew Polling Predictions
Ponca City writes "A good deal of polling data suggest that Republicans may win the House of Representatives in today's mid-term elections. However, Nate Silver writes in the NY Times that there are several factors that could skew the election, allowing Democrats to outperform their polls and beat consensus expectations. Most prominent is the 'cellphone effect.' In 2003, just 3.2% of households were cell-only, while in the 2010 election one-quarter of American adults have ditched their landlines and rely exclusively on their mobile phones, and a lot of pollsters don't call mobile phones. Cellphone-only voters tend to be younger, more urban, and less white — all Democratic demographics — and a study by Pew Research suggests that the failure to include them might bias the polls by about 4 points against Democrats, even after demographic weighting is applied. Another factor that could skew results is the Robopoll effect, where there are significant differences between the results shown by automated surveys and those which use live human interviewers — the 'robopolls' being 3 or 4 points more favorable to Republicans over all. It may be that only adults who are extremely engaged by politics (who are more likely to be Republican, especially this year) bother to respond to robocalls. Still, when all is said and done, 'more likely than not, Republicans will indeed win the House, and will do so by a significant margin,' writes Silver. 'But just as Republicans could beat the consensus, Democrats could too, and nobody should be particularly shocked if they do.'"
Bitch.
-Rick
"Most people in the U.S. wouldn't know they live in a tyrannical state if it walked up and grabbed their junk." - MyFirs
The New York Times is pretty left wing. Of course they're going to grasp at threads to say the polls are wrong, and America really wants the kind of government we've had these last two years.
Beware of any poll, or comments on the validity of polls, conducted by the far left or the far right. They're likely to be skewed in one direction or the other.
Anybody who pays taxes has a right to complain. You don't have to participate in the charade that is an election to have a right to voice an opinion. What we really need is for the most 'politically active' sorts to fuck off. Don't try to draw the rest of us into your little bullshit game.
Another factor that could skew results is the Robopoll effect
How about the Fox effect? On which site is Fox "News" in your country now?
http://www.mueller-public.de - My site http://www.anr-institute.com/ - Advanced Natural Research Institute
Bullshit, corporations are polluting the fucking air I breathe right this very second. I did not agree to that. They are buying politicians with money they stole using economic coercion, "Do what I say or die of hunger" is the same as holding a gun to someone's head. I did not agree to any of that, you fucking corporate stooge.
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
Tell that to all the people constantly screwed by PG&E in California. The PUC gives them legal coverage and public resources to be total dicks.
The courts are supposed to be where things are set straight. When we turned them into forges of social realignment, we set ourselves down a very long, dark path.
Forges of social realignment? You mean, like giving women and blacks the right to vote? I know! For shame.
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
Welcome back, GOP! Who the hell voted for the dem morons anyway! Nice change, eh? How are your portfolios doing? Know anyone out of work? Thanks for several months of decline left-wingers. Wonder how the market will do today??? Damn right this is flame bait! Mod it, liberal nerd. HAHAHAHA!
Proverbs 21:19 It is better to dwell in the wilderness, than with a contentious and an angry woman.