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'Cellphone Effect' Could Skew Polling Predictions
Ponca City writes "A good deal of polling data suggest that Republicans may win the House of Representatives in today's mid-term elections. However, Nate Silver writes in the NY Times that there are several factors that could skew the election, allowing Democrats to outperform their polls and beat consensus expectations. Most prominent is the 'cellphone effect.' In 2003, just 3.2% of households were cell-only, while in the 2010 election one-quarter of American adults have ditched their landlines and rely exclusively on their mobile phones, and a lot of pollsters don't call mobile phones. Cellphone-only voters tend to be younger, more urban, and less white — all Democratic demographics — and a study by Pew Research suggests that the failure to include them might bias the polls by about 4 points against Democrats, even after demographic weighting is applied. Another factor that could skew results is the Robopoll effect, where there are significant differences between the results shown by automated surveys and those which use live human interviewers — the 'robopolls' being 3 or 4 points more favorable to Republicans over all. It may be that only adults who are extremely engaged by politics (who are more likely to be Republican, especially this year) bother to respond to robocalls. Still, when all is said and done, 'more likely than not, Republicans will indeed win the House, and will do so by a significant margin,' writes Silver. 'But just as Republicans could beat the consensus, Democrats could too, and nobody should be particularly shocked if they do.'"
It may be that only adults who are extremely engaged by politics (who are more likely to be Republican, especially this year) bother to respond to robocalls.
Poll Phone Operator: Excuse me, sir or ma'am, do you have a free minute to answer a few simple questions anonymously about who you plan to vote for?
...
Phone Respondent One: Well, let's see, what would Jesus do?
*Poll Phone Operator hangs up the phone and puts a check mark next to the Republican candidate*
Poll Phone Operator: Excuse me, sir or ma'am, do you have a free minute to answer a few simple questions anonymously about who you plan to vote for?
Phone Respondent Two: Sorry, what did you say? It's cloudy and my solar powered phone is cutting in and out.
*Poll Phone Operator hangs up the phone and puts a check mark next to the Democratic candidate*
Poll Phone Operator: Excuse me, sir or ma'am, do you have a free minute to answer a few simple questions anonymously about who you plan to vote for?
Phone Respondent Three: Yes I do, just let me put NASCAR on mute, I can talk and watch at the same time.
*Poll Phone Operator hangs up the phone and puts a check mark next to the Republican candidate*
Poll Phone Operator: Excuse me, sir or ma'am, do you have a free minute to answer a few simple questions anonymously about who you plan to vote for?
Phone Respondent Four: I'm so sorry but I just put on a 180 gram vinyl Arcade Fire album and I fear that if I remove the needle prematurely I would
*Poll Phone Operator hangs up the phone and puts a check mark next to the Democratic candidate*
Poll Phone Operator: Excuse me, sir or ma'am, do you have a free minute to answer a few simple questions anonymously about who you plan to vote for?
Phone Respondent Five: Fuck you and fuck the establishment you rode in on.
*Poll Phone Operator hangs up the phone and puts a check mark next to the Independent candidate*
My work here is dung.
So you've essentially been avoiding democracy since classical Athens?
They keep robocalling our house and I keep telling them this is a private line and that I don't talk to robots.
But robots don't listen.
Although, if I ever get a political push-poll robocall that starts by asking "are there stairs in your house?" I will answer long enough to ensure them I am protected.
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Democrats could too, and nobody should be particularly shocked if they do.
well I listen to a lot of FOX radio on AM mainly for comedic entertainment, and to keep tabs with what that side is saying, and according to them if Democrats win everyone in the country must have been influenced, intimidated, or bribed
so yes I would think they would be quite shocked and provide me with quite a bit more entertainment value
"Don't Vote, It Only Encourages Them."
I really don't understand Americans
No kidding, you really don't, as you demonstrated quite well with the rest of your rant.
Vote for Kang!
Personally I think Carlin actually did vote but wrote that routine because he figured:
People who would take political advice from a comedian probably shouldn't be voting anyway!
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But wouldn't these folks' parents have a landline? Perhaps with an extension in the basement, so they would have a chance of answering the call?
Dark Reflection
I did my research, found the person I liked and I voted for them even though they are likely to win.
We need more people like you.
As for me, last time I accidentally watched TV, I had the following conversation with my neighbor: "Who the fuck is that?" - "That's the mayor." - "Wow. And what about that shithead standing next to him?" - "That's the prime minister..."
Can we please go back to car analogies?
This is a democracy. We are the government. What do we have to gain by colluding with those who would dominate and control us?
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
2. Has anybody (other than pundits from the major parties) proven that "the vast majority of 3rd part(sic) candidates" are the lunatic fringe? How much time have we spent studying their views, talking to them?
You know what, the rent may be too damn high...
0 = 1 + e^(Alt something)