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Facebook Knows When You'll Get Dumped

Posted by CmdrTaco on from the wait-what-now dept.

Pickens writes "Cnet reports that according to a graphic making the rounds online that uses Facebook status updates to chart what time of year people are splitting up, there are three big spikes on the calendar for breakups — just after Valentine's Day, just before spring break and two weeks before Christmas. British journalist and graphic designer David McCandless, who specializes in showcasing data in visual ways, compiled the chart after scraping 10,000 Facebook status updates for the phrases 'breakup' and 'broken up.' 'Might I suggest that, immediately after Valentine's, some women might be casting men from their sight, appalled that their lovers could think of nothing more romantic than roses from the supermarket and dinner at Outback Steakhouse,' writes Chris Matyszczyk. 'Continuing with this obviously accurate analysis, perhaps it's men who do more of the dumping just before spring break, as for some —however unfairly — their main concern lies in how their girl will look on the beach.'"

48 of 474 comments (clear)

  1. I read slashdot by masmullin · · Score: 5, Funny

    I read slashdot... I dont have to worry about this.

    1. Re:I read slashdot by gandhi_2 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      No joke. Wake me up when it tells me when I'll get hooked up in the first place.

      --
      THL phish sticks
    2. Re:I read slashdot by daid303 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Wake me up when it tells me when I'll get hooked up in the first place.

      You will if you really wanted to. But what I noticed with most geeks is that they don't care. They wouldn't mind it, but don't care enough to really go for it.

    3. Re:I read slashdot by master0ne · · Score: 5, Insightful

      your not reading between the lines here.... if you read between the lines it says to do something REALLY romantic for a chick right AFTER V-Day or before spring break... or 2 weeks before X-Mas, and you can steal her away from that Jock asshole..... (a side note, you may consider renewing your health/life insurance as well before you do this)

      --
      Noone writes jokes in base 13!
    4. Re:I read slashdot by Stregano · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Programming is easier. It is very logical. If something does not work properly, while sometimes the issue might not be clear to me, but once I know exactly what the problem is (like a bug), I can directly fix it on the spot. For a girl, if you have an issue like you love playing Halo for 4 hours a day, even if you fix that, most girls will stay mad even after the issue is fixed. With a computer, I have 100% control of what I want to happen and how it will happen.

      Girls take too long

      --
      The world is how you make it
    5. Re:I read slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah women are great until you fall in love with them, then they become a fucking nightmare. Completely illogical, with the ability to turn any word or phrase around to whatever bogus point they're trying to argue for. They're a serious distraction to getting things done. Posting anon for obvious reasons.

    6. Re:I read slashdot by thePowerOfGrayskull · · Score: 3, Funny

      I read slashdot... I dont have to worry about this.

      I dunno, I just updated my status to say how I'm all broken up about it...

    7. Re:I read slashdot by Jurily · · Score: 4, Funny

      You will if you really wanted to. But what I noticed with most geeks is that they don't care. They wouldn't mind it, but don't care enough to really go for it.

      Meh. Computers are more predictable.

    8. Re:I read slashdot by Merk42 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      When they do go for it and are STILL unsuccessful, then they're just fed the line "oh it won't happen when you're looking for it..."

    9. Re:I read slashdot by Skarecrow77 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      ahh the "i can get her from the jock asshole if she sees my sensitive side" strategy.

      Take it from someone who was "that guy" for the better part of a decade, It's doesn't work.

      She's dating the jock asshole because she LIKES jock assholes. That's a point that most introverted shy nerdly types never understand. They don't understand why the girl of their affections would date such a worthless dipshit, so they do their best to be the opposite of that dipshit, never realizing that they're pushing themselves into the friend zone by consciously choosing to be the opposite of what the girl wants.

      She knows what you're doing. She's not an idiot (and if she is really that dumb, why do you want her?), and she recognizes your efforts a lot more than you think she does. A lot of girls dig the jock jerks. live with it. some will grow out of it, some wont. if they are going to grow out of it, you can't hurry that up. just wait it out and stop trying so hard.

    10. Re:I read slashdot by Grishnakh · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Maybe, maybe not. Depends on the person.

      I don't know what "gandhi_2" looks like, how old he (I'm assuming it's a he) is, how much money he has, or what kind of personality he has. But while it's probably true he could find someone if he really wanted to, that someone might not be someone he really wants to bother with. If he doesn't have the attributes to attract a female that's up to his standard, then he either has to lower his standards, or go without. He could be choosing to go without. Seriously, if the only kind of woman that was interested in you was a nasty, ugly fat women missing teeth with serious B.O., would you bother to go find one of those, or would you sit at home and try to find a way to be a happy single man? I'd choose the latter.

      Now, you might say something like "he should work on himself then, so that he's more attractive to better-quality women". That may or may not be possible. Maybe he's cursed with extremely ugly looks, perhaps from a birth defect, or is seriously obese and it's not coming off no matter how much he exercises (there's a theory now that obesity can be caused by a virus). Maybe he has a personality that doesn't attract women; perhaps he's slightly autistic and socially retarded. There's only so much people like that can do, but women aren't really interested in guys with weird personality defects, even if it isn't their fault. Or, he might simply be old. Unless you're a millionaire, or one of the guys who somehow stays really attractive when he's 60, older men can't really attract attractive women.

      In my experience (I'm 36, and luckily married), as you get older, the pool of available women dries up pretty quickly. They usually get hooked up pretty early (high school or college), and after that's it's all downhill. After about 30, the only women who are available are 1) divorced, 2) widowed (rare), 3) never married. Many of them now have kids by other men, so the older the woman, the more likely she is to have kids, which means that's a giant complication and factor for you, a prospective boyfriend and husband, to consider. It's hard enough to find a woman you really like and get along with, but now you have to get along with her kids, who could very well have a bunch of emotional issues because their father is gone or they're shared between the two.

      Now, in group 1) (divorced women), there's a higher chance the woman will have emotional issues herself: she's "damaged goods". Basically, the more bad relationships a person goes through in their life (and obviously, if they ended in break-up or divorce they weren't "good relationships"), the more psychological issues that person will have, more "baggage". This is yet another obstacle to a healthy relationship. Also important is why the previous relationship(s) ended. Is she a nut or a bitch, who drove away the other men? Or does she keep picking crappy men?

      Group 2) is a little better, because at least their relationship didn't end because someone was a jerk, it ended because someone unfortunately died too early. But there could still be some emotional problems there. However, premature death (like before 40 years old) is pretty rare these days in the middle class and above, so there's not many women in this group, though there's probably tons of women in the ghetto who could claim this status, but I don't think Slashdotters are typically interested in ghetto-dwelling women whose prior husbands were gang members who got killed in gang warfare.

      Group 3) isn't so hot either. If a woman isn't married (or in a LTR) by the time she's 30, then why not? If she just wanted to wait, just didn't happen to find the right guy, or concentrated too much on her important work as a scientific researcher trying to find the cure for AIDS or cancer or whatever, then you may have found a really great woman. But it's much more likely that she's not married because there's something wrong with her, and she didn't even get as far as the women in group 1), and men ran from her be

  2. So do I... by eln · · Score: 4, Funny

    right after I take my girlfriend back to my place and she sees my extensive collection of hand-painted D&D figurines.

    1. Re:So do I... by spun · · Score: 5, Funny

      Somewhere, out there, there is a woman who has all the same interests you do. She's a lesbian.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    2. Re:So do I... by dintech · · Score: 5, Funny

      That's awesome. I like lesbians almost as much as I like D&D.

    3. Re:So do I... by TheThiefMaster · · Score: 3, Funny

      Somewhere out there is a woman who loves you for who you are, regardless of the D&D figurines (or warhammer, or computers, or model railway...).

    4. Re:So do I... by Beyond_GoodandEvil · · Score: 4, Funny

      Somewhere out there is a woman who loves you for who you are
      Yes, she's called your mother. Oh, you meant someone not related?

      --
      I laughed at the weak who considered themselves good because they lacked claws.
    5. Re:So do I... by TheThiefMaster · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I was actually implying that I'd found such a person, and extrapolating it to mean that anyone could. That's probably flawed.

    6. Re:So do I... by Gizzmonic · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Ahhh, misogyny coupled with libertarian delusions of grandeur. A Slashdot perfect storm!

      --
      (-1, Raw and Uncut is the only way to read)
    7. Re:So do I... by SpeZek · · Score: 3, Insightful

      All men want women to change too.

      The foundation of a good relationship is compromise.

    8. Re:So do I... by Late+Adopter · · Score: 4, Funny

      Well, if you're not going to date your mother then, can I?

    9. Re:So do I... by bckrispi · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No. Women spend effort in the relationship trying to get their man to change. Men spend their effort in the relationship to get their woman to not change.

      --
      Xenon, where's my money? -Borno
    10. Re:So do I... by BenEnglishAtHome · · Score: 5, Informative

      And sometimes people get blindsided.

      I had a good friend who explained why he divorced his first wife thusly:

      When we were dating, she'd do any thing, any time. BJs while driving, stand-ups in her parents back yard, you name it. Constantly. All the time, any time I wanted it, and more. We got married. Lovely ceremony. Driving away in the limo, I leaned over to give her a kiss and grab a little something. After all, we'd never sat in the back seat of any vehicle when she wasn't instantly wriggling out of her clothes or diving for my crotch. So I reached over and leaned over and you know what she did? She pushed me back and, in a tone of complete disgust, said "You'll mess up my hair." I didn't get a single bj after that. She barely gave me an opportunity to get her pregnant. I went elsewhere for what I needed and the marriage went straight to hell.

      I'll never forget that story. There are some good lessons in there.

    11. Re:So do I... by Gizzmonic · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's one part of a story.

      I have a friend who just got divorced as well. He says "she became a different person" and "she's crazy now" but, oddly enough, everyone else picked up the warning signs before they got married. Of course, he didn't want to hear them until she was carousing around with a guy from her work.

      Never trust the person telling those kind of stories. Inevitably, they won't accept that there were flaws in their partner until the turning point. That's because they were too in love or too determined to get married, no matter what.

      --
      (-1, Raw and Uncut is the only way to read)
    12. Re:So do I... by spun · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yes, but I prefer an honest good citizen. We don't want "The State" to take care of us. We are the state, and we formed it to keep assholes from getting their way. We take care of each other, because we need to band together to protect ourselves from the powerful who would exploit us. Remember, "anarchy" does not mean "no state." It means "no rulers." "No State" would be written "anocracy."

      Libertarians prefer absolute property rights, where each man is the petty tyrant of his tiny domain. They love rent, it's a great source of income.

      But, what is really telling in your defense of libertarianism, the point that absolutely and unequivocally proves my point, is where you say, "Libertarians prefer... agreement to compromise."

      Normal people reach agreement through compromise.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  3. Picky, picky, picky by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So, what did YOU do for your man this Valentines, ladies?

    Give him a present he both needs and loves: FRIGGING DIRECTION.

    DON'T go "if you really knew me, you'd know what I want". ASK FOR WHAT YOU WANT.

    OK?

    ffs...

    1. Re:Picky, picky, picky by gstoddart · · Score: 3, Informative

      DON'T go "if you really knew me, you'd know what I want". ASK FOR WHAT YOU WANT.

      Someone sounds bitter. ;-)

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    2. Re:Picky, picky, picky by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's 2010. Women are supposed to be equal to men. It's your turn to take your boyfriend out, ladies. You've demanded equality. You got it. Now act like it!

    3. Re:Picky, picky, picky by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Dude, seriously. Nothing bothers me like women who have a princess complex and want to be given all of the deference for none of the cost. I have no problem treating women as equals, they are equals, but with that comes opening doors for yourself, sharing bills, registering for the draft (which should happen but doesn't), competing for lifeboats and all the rest. You can't have equality and special treatment both.

      --
      I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
    4. Re:Picky, picky, picky by Defenestrar · · Score: 5, Funny

      As the gentleman said to the feminist: "I didn't open the door for you because you're a woman. I opened the door for you because I am a man."

  4. Could that possibly be any more misleading? by clone53421 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Facebook doesn’t “know” when I’ll get dumped. Aggregated data, which happened to be obtained from facebook, revealed that the average person is more likely to get dumped at certain times of the year, but that’s useless when making a prediction for an individual.

    Besides which, I’d need a girlfriend first.

    --
    Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
    1. Re:Could that possibly be any more misleading? by gstoddart · · Score: 3, Funny

      Facebook doesn’t “know” when I’ll get dumped

      Oh, sure they do.

      Jane heard it from Wanda who read it on Judy's Facebook page that according to Robert who spoke with Susie, you're SO getting dumped this weekend. Totally.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    2. Re:Could that possibly be any more misleading? by sakdoctor · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Has anyone made a bot that "plays" facebook yet?
      I bet a bot could be very socially successful on facebook, given the depth of the interaction. We could approach machine intelligence by lowering the standard for the Turing test.

    3. Re:Could that possibly be any more misleading? by cupantae · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I think it wouldn't be too difficult to do one for /. either. All it would have to do is post immediately after the article hits the front page, and say:

      "The analysis here is hugely flawed. Sure, they say [something from the summary], but clearly haven't taken into account [something taken into account halfway through the article], so it can hardly be confirmed that [title]."

      That's a Score:5, Insightful comment right there.

      --
      --
    4. Re:Could that possibly be any more misleading? by Tackhead · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Facebook doesn't "know" when I'll get dumped

      Oh, sure they do.

      Jane heard it from Wanda who read it on Judy's Facebook page that according to Robert who spoke with Susie, you're SO getting dumped this weekend. Totally.

      ...who saw the original poster pass out 31 Flavors last night! I guess it's pretty serious.

      Actually, it's not even that complicated. I'm not sure whether adding in third- and fourth-order effects would increase accuracy or just muddy the waters, so let's take the simplest possible option: our old friends Alice, Bob, and Charlie.

      Suppose we start with Alice and Bob, who are presumed to be in a relationship with each other by virtue of frequent affectionate (as defined by keywords/scoring) communications with each other (both public and "private"). (e.g. "Alice u were so hot last nite!" "Luv u BOB"!)

      Then, observe a slight dropoff in affectionately-loaded keywords in the communications between Alice and Bob, and a spike in communications between Alice and Charlie. Furthermore, observe that Alice and Charlie's communications patterns have gone from "all/mostly in public, no/few affectionate keywords" to "no/minimal change in public communications, but a spike in 'private' communications".

      Furthermore, weight the language and tone in Alice and Charlie's public and private communications separately: If she's saying "'sup charlie" in public, and "OMG so good to see u again missed u so much" in private, the difference between the emotional tone of the Alice/Charlie public conversation and the Alice/Charlie private conversation is yet another big red flag.

      Facebook knows damn well when someone's about to get dumped. It's just not telling. (Unless it wants to monetize it by feeding Bob more ads for dating services the week before Valentine's Day, and Alice and Charlie start getting ads for restaurant reservations.)

    5. Re:Could that possibly be any more misleading? by sorak · · Score: 4, Funny

      I knew when my ex created an event called "fuck off" and invited me to it.

  5. Bloomin' onions! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    Any woman who doesn't appreciate the fine cuisine of an Outback Steakhouse isn't worth a man's time, anyhow. The ambiance and food quality are second only to Olive Garden.

  6. Re:So why the Pre-Christmas Spike? by stillnotelf · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If you aren't that into her/him, you don't want to spend the holidays with her/him. You don't want to visit your parents with her in tow, or visit his parents. You don't want to spend a bunch of money on a gift. You don't want to deal with a long-distance relationship for winter break, if you're in college. If there's a spring break spike then there will be a winter break spike.

  7. Re:The corollary is,,, by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 3, Funny

    Somebody doesn't know how a cervix works, but I suppose that's par for the course.

    --
    I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
  8. Quote Sources! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    Come on, Slashdot. This information (and the graph to go with it) is originally by David McCandless and Lee Bryon in this book back in 2008 and was copied by someone. See Peak Break-Up Times On Facebook.

  9. Matsksskskskskk by box4831 · · Score: 3, Funny

    appalled that their lovers could think of nothing more romantic than roses from the supermarket and dinner at Outback Steakhouse?" write Chris Matyszczyk

    Im more appalled at my attempts to pronounce that last name

    --
    Miller Lite tastes like water that's somehow managed to rot.
    1. Re:Matsksskskskskk by $RANDOMLUSER · · Score: 4, Funny

      appalled that their lovers could think of nothing more romantic than roses from the supermarket and dinner at Outback Steakhouse?" write Chris Matyszczyk

      Im more appalled at my attempts to pronounce that last name

      If you can trick him into saying his name backwards, it will return him to his own dimension for at least 90 days.

      --
      No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism. - Winston Churchill
  10. Good Riddance by Lumpy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "Might I suggest that, immediately after Valentine's, some women might be casting men from their sight, appalled that their lovers could think of nothing more romantic than roses from the supermarket and dinner at Outback Steakhouse?"

    If your Girl is that shallow.... It was a GOOD THING(tm) that she "dumped you".

    Honestly, some guys cant afford more than that on a silly holiday created by a greeting card company. IF she wants Diamonds on Valentines day, Kick that gold digger to the curb pronto!

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    1. Re:Good Riddance by Rene+S.+Hollan · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You can do the roses thing, and get away with it, without appearing cheap or unoriginal. But, while original, alas it also won't be cheap.

      Get more than a dozen variegated roses. TWO dozen is a nice, round, number. Expect to pay between $100 and $200. (On the upside, that usually includes a vase.) Send them to her place of work. This is important: she has to have a job. More on that later.

      This will have the following effect:

      1. All her female coworkers will note, "Hey, there's more than a dozen here!". They will exude thinly veiled jealousy: their SOs never splurged that much. She will feel smug in front of them. (whether she actually wants such things from you is another matter.)

      2. The more astute will point out that they are variegated. These are not cheap $11.99/dozen roses.

      3. She will realize that you actually had the guts to be so public about your affection. After all, she could utterly dismiss your infantile display. True, but you aren't actually there. It will pass, and if she does and dumps you over it, you have saved the cost of dinner, and future courtship. Note: $150 for the flowers would be cheap by comparison.

      4. She will realize that you went to some hardship to spend that kind of money on her. After all, she works for a living too and knows it's hard to earn. Granted, she might dismiss it as wasteful (but, you would probably know that aspect of her personality by now), but hey, it's once a year, and ya gotta live at least a little, no?

      O.K. You've made your "investment". Over the next weeks and months, see what the return is. The real measure of a woman is not whether she will "service you" (note: hookers are cheaper than roses, and reciprocal booty calls and NSA relationships don't require them -- they are business arrangements), but rather if she will endure hardship for you.

      And, always, always, remember this: if you get dumped over your display, it was a cheap lesson in the long run,

      --
      In Liberty, Rene
    2. Re:Good Riddance by slim · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Be very, very wary about generalising about what women want.

      Some women would love to get an ostentatious bouquet of flowers at work. Others would be deeply embarrassed by it.

      How to know? That's the tricky bit.

  11. Re:Valentine's biggest affair discovery day. by wjousts · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Exactly this. If you've been juggling two or more affairs all year, it's bound to come to a head on Valentine's day. Try explaining to the person who thinks you are their exclusive lover that you are aren't going to spend Valentine's with them. Christmas is easier because you can always use your family as an excuse.

  12. Is there an app for that? by Animats · · Score: 3, Interesting

    There's potential for a great Facebook app here - the Dump-O-Meter. This would monitor messages to and from someone you're in a relationship with. Tally the positive and negative adjectives, and the response timing. If you send to your SO, how long does it take to get a response, and vice versa? How has that response time changed over time?

    Collect this data for a large number of users, and observe when the "In a relationship" status changes. Dump the data into a machine learning algorithm like a support vector machine and build a predictive model. To analyze messages, repurpose a spam filter program.

    Provide the user with warning messages when the predictor says the risk of being dumped is climbing. Attach ads for flowers, candy, travel, etc.

    Generate revenue by selling lists of people just dumped to dating services.

  13. Context by SteveAyre · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The guy's completely ignored context though.

    What about school/college university terms breaking up? They all break up for spring break and christmas.

    I expect more people round those times were blogging things like 'I can't wait until we break up for christmas'' than were saying they were dumped. Which makes the entire chart meaningless.

  14. This only demonstrates... by Fantastic+Lad · · Score: 3, Funny

    This only demonstrates that there are enough selfish, sociopathic creeps out there (of both sexes), to shape behavioral bell-curves for entire populations.

    No surprise there.

    Anybody here ever snap awake with a sudden wave of panic to the fact that you're locked up in a cage packed full of mindless, wild animals masquerading as human and there's not a damned thing you can do about it other than hope you can distract them long enough to avoid getting your jugular ripped open with their zombie fangs? Yes? Then you probably don't fit into that above-mentioned bell-curve.

    -FL