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China To Build Its Own Large Jetliner
Hugh Pickens writes "China's domestic airlines will need to buy an estimated 4,330 new aircraft valued at $480 billion over the next two decades to meet demand in commercial aviation. Now the LA Times reports that the Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China expects to begin producing its 156-seat C919 by 2016, competing with the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. China has staked billions of dollars and national pride on the effort but what may surprise some Americans worried about slipping US competitiveness is that some well-known US companies are aiding China, putting US and European suppliers in a tough spot: Be willing to hand over advanced technology to Chinese firms that could one day be rivals or miss out on what's likely to be the biggest aviation bonanza of the next half a century. 'If they launch a commercial aviation industry, you've got to be part of it,' says Roger Seager, GE Aviation's vice president and general manager for China, whose company has garnered contracts worth about $6 billion for the C919. 'You can't take a pass and come back in 10 years.'"
I didn't say, "no other country" will make it to the moon this century
Explain what, exactly, you were thinking when you wrote this sentence. Seriously. What the bloody blazes are you replying to in my message? Go re-read my message.
upcoming economic crash
Yeah, and it took US merely 40 years to get to the moon from the beginning of the Great Depression with a world war eating up a significant chunk in between. But the space race to get to the moon really started from Kennedy's announcement in 1962, so it really took us 7 years with 1960s technology to get there.
So what you've said is that it will take the Chinese 13 times longer to get to the moon than we did assuming they start immediately.
Nope, I don't buy it. I don't buy your stupid assertions. They have no basis in reality. You ignore the development rate of the Chinese. You completely ignore the starting point of the Chinese. You ignore the education level of US educated Chinese scientists and engineers. Indeed, the only reference you have is your own biases from your own head.
It's attitudes like yours which make me fear for the future of the US in science and technology. Many people think like you. Many are willing to simply write off the Chinese even as they have been kicking our ass for 10 years. This is the complacency that nearly brought down the US automotive industry *twice* in the last 40 years. This is the complacency that will cost us our future.
Fuck you.
Sincerely,
BMO
Except that it doesn't work that way for high tech. China now is an excellent example of this: They really, REALLY tried to make proper military making machine for several decades. Investments were close to trillion levels.
Results? To cover up the failures, they ended up essentially buying russian tech, modding it a bit, and showing it off as your own. The devepment costs needed to make a functional jetliner without the necessary know-how of the entire chain of suppliers is next to impossible, no matter how deep your pockets are. Look at russians themselves - after we raided their supply chain in 90s, essentially buying out and killing off many of their strategic know-how companies, they can't even make a current gen jumbo jet. This from country and bureaus that are known to produce civilian craft that has operated safely and consistently for decades in conditions boeing and airbus have problems making their military craft operate (TU-154 being the main supply workhorse for essentially entire Siberia, taking off and landing in what essentially amounted to nothing but a cleared out field with almost no accidents).
At they at least have a history and know how how to build a new jetliner. And they still can't. For China to do this without West helping is in a realm of impossiblity, unless we're talking 1st gen jetliners, which can't compete with any Airbus or Boeing variants on anything.
In this case, Lenin's quote is dead on. We are literally selling them the rope that they will hang us with. We're selling the supply chain and know how that took us DECADES to get, and would take them DECADES to acquire on their own. Rest is simply hardcore capitalistic bullshit about how we "have to participate now". Which is bullshit because if we don't participate now, they may have something among the lines of boeing 707, or more likely tu-104. Which is commercially pretty much dead on arrival considering the competition available - even russians, in spite of their problems could sell Chinese much better aircraft cheaper. Boeing and Airbus could even better then that.
Essentially this one of the biggest reasons why Marx predicted the fall of too capitalistic system - it is utterly unable to properly regulate itself not to damage itself, and at the same time it tends to try to destroy outside attempts to regulate it - which is what we're seeing with this now. Big companies simply buying out politicians to get permits to essentially sell decades worth of know-how for pennies compared to what it would cost to develop it in the first place.
What's ironic about that video is that China has actually done more of the exact things that is supposed to bring down the US:
* Stimulus/spending out of recession: China has spent more of their GDP on stimulus spending that the US, and as a result has felt less impact from it. In fact, there is a linear correlation between amount a of GDP a country spent on stimulus and the length of the recession: the more they spent, the shorter the 2009 recession. Most economists acknowledge that if US had spent more, our recession would have been shorter.
* Government take over of health care: Seriously? China has government (actually, Communist) health care. Neither they nor Korea, Japan, Taiwan are about to privatize their national health care system to stay or become competitive with US.
* Government take over of private business: Chinese government owns and subsidizes many key corporations so that the corporation benefit the nation as a whole and not the CEOs and the shareholders.
If one follows the logic of the ad, it would seem that the Chinese state controlled capitalism is much more effective than our form of capitalism, and if our biggest competitor is China, then we should counter with our own similarly designed policies.
But no, this ad was carefully created to instill a feeling of fear and uncertainty, juxtaposition it with fiscal conservative ideas with almost no basis on fact. It is perfect propaganda.
In fact, I believe blaming foreigners for self created domestic problems was the first step in the decline of Greece, Rome, UK....
In Soviet Russia, articles before post read *you*!