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Solar Dynamo Still Anemic, Magnetism and UV Lax
radioweather writes "While we are well along into solar cycle 24, there remains a significant gap between the predictions of where we should be, and where we actually are in the progression of the cycle. Recently, the sun went spotless again, and the solar Ap geomagnetic index, an indicator of the solar magneto, hit zero. It is something you really don't expect to see this far along into the cycle. In other solar news, scientists monitoring the SORCE solar satellite have found that solar ultraviolet emissions have dropped significantly in the past few years. The Solar Irradiance Monitor on the satellite 'suggests that ultraviolet irradiance fell far more than expected between 2004 and 2007 — by ten times as much as the total irradiance did — while irradiance in certain visible and infrared wavelengths surprisingly increased, even as solar activity wound down overall.'"
first step to solar fail?
I'm a nerd and all and I see it's all sciency, but this reads like a journal entry from the world's most boring man.
Is it just me, or dose it seem the curve for the prediction coming out, shows a faster return then the fall coming in?
A longer lower end may be followed by a slow return too.
You have 5 Moderator Points!
Which Helpless Linux zealot/MS basher do you want to mod down today?
If I could make a better corpse student, I could pop out an answer as to why this is unacceptable!
Can we blame this on bush or al gore?
*rabble rabble rabble*
It may be low now, but the sun is expect to reach peak intensity in 2012...
When comparing the actual results to the predictions, the brief analysis given by the lead investigator Dr. Sunny M. Sparks was:
"The fuck?!"
Assestion to which the closer grad student, not fully comprehending the ramifications of such discovery, replied:
"Not my fault! I swear! ... It was Jackson! He was playing WoW in the lab computer not two days ago."
We have to do something about that.
We are doomed! (TM)
(well, we are eventually)
While we are well along into solar cycle 24, there remains a significant gap between the predictions of where we should be, and where we actually are in the progression of the cycle.
It took me a while to figure out what "solar cycle" meant. I thought it was talking about the 24th day of December. Then with all that talk of predictions of where we are in respect to the day, I had no idea what was going on.
It seems first stage and nature has a lot of changes, nobody day what will be result. Scented candles
NASA needs some gas certified plumbing engineers to send out to service the boiler...
Donald 'Duck' Dunn: We had a band powerful enough to turn goat piss into gasoline.
Like why I can't seem to be able to tan at all...
Peak solar!
The sun's just doing its part to slow global warming.
Gravity physics does not explain the universe. How the fuck is solar energy higher further away from the sun's surface ? Because the sun is connected by plasma to other stars.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn Piers Corbyn is a weather forecaster in Britain who uses solar activity and the phases of the moon to predict weather. His long range forecasts are somewhat more accurate than those of the UK Met Office (not hard, they got fired by the BBC).
Corbyn points out that the solar activity and moon phase are about the same as they were 132 years ago and the weather is about the same.
a brand new-in-the-box 10-meter HF/FM transceiver purchased after Cycle 23...
25 watts and work the world!
This cycle is matching up very nicely (along with the previous two cycles actually) with the beginning of the Dalton Minimum, which produced sharply colder temperatures around the globe.
Here's a relevant article.
So, there's no immediacy to global warming, we have time to get it right - rather than wrecking our economy for most likely no reason.
Galileo: "The Earth revolves around the Sun!"
Score: -1 100% Flamebait
Now, you really need to have something to quantify that statement, preferably with clear criteria how to assess accuracy of predictions. You can't trust your memory on things like this: you're likely to remember only recent things -- with bias.
This can be because
Sun has already been bought by Oracle?
The Sun is a very old thing. Like most old ham radio operators, SOL didn't like the FCC screwing around with the testing. "BY GUMMIT! I had'ta take the 25WPM test to get my Extra, so should all you youngins!" he was heard exclaiming after the rule change. So ol' Sol got together one morning over coffee with all his buddies on 80 meters and hatched a plan: "I'll just turn down the sunspots for a while, they tend to inflame my gout anyway. That way they'll have to use CW, since they all live in deed-restricted tract houses and can't put up boomers like we have!"
And so, as the newly-licensed HAMs bought their Miracle Whips and Outbackers, in the hopes of cycle 23 kicking up and making it easy to work the world, their hopes (and bank accounts) were quickly dashed on the reality of all quiet bands (except for those old guys talking about their aches and pains) and those weird sounds at the bottom of the band. Some took to new methods, and some picked up the old ways, but the old guys, with their antenna farms and "full limit" linear amps got to keep "their" voice subbands and coffee klatches, comforted in the knowledge that their frequency will continue to belong to them, for as long as they can keep it.
"Well, good luck finding a judge that doesn't run a bestiality site."
Well, who knows, but it would be nice if we were entering a new Maunder type Minimum. We could use some help keeping the planet from overheating.
Freakin' Microsoft. Who gave them the contract to upgrade SunOS, anyway?!?
Not content with raping Mother Earth, they're affecting the sun now.
Is it me, or shouldn't we be thinking about a performance improvement plan to get those UV emissions up by the next solar cycle?
Sounds like a precursor to a Supernova.
I remember reading 10 - 15 years ago about a couple Russian scientists that said we didn't have to worry about global warming because there would be a mini ice age commencing somewhere around the year 2010. No, really... I did read that. Boy those Russkies are smart.
Should we be working on a space-based mirror system to concentrate sunlight and maybe prevent 10,000 foot thick glaciers marching down the continent all the way to Omaha? If you thought GW was going to screw up the environment, think about that. Far worse.
Or maybe a series of electric power satellites, 1000's of terawatts that would, when the waste heat is dumped into the atmoshphere, just maybe help things along to thwart the glaciers.
We may yet have to do something...
2012? Oh no! Must make sacrifice! Call uncle Nayam the heart surgeon!
Oh wait! Must first go to country where a religion is allowed that professes killing.
... attending to its self-preservation, counteracting our global warming. If this doesn't work, it moves to the plan labeled "SkyNet".
The Maunder Minimum is well known in the 1600s. Millions of people starved when cold weather limited growing and ruined crops in Northern Europe. Our current minds tend to forget this.
A friend who used to run the Mojave Solar Telescope Array noted the last time I saw him that the solar physicists who analyze the Sun, still can't do reliable long range solar forecasts.
Those solar cycle changes can result in large changes on the earth that completely change the lifestyle in a region.
Richard Henry Dana in the 2nd Edition of his book Two Years Before the Mast, noted that between the early 1800s when he was collecting hides in California and when he came back as a retiree on the first railroad about half a century later, that the Los Angeles Basin climate had abruptly changed to a dry climate. There was 'no more waist high fields of grass over the plains and thus no more cattle herds', or words similar to that.
The Sun rules! Gore doesn't & committees on climate change don't. In the long run the 110,000 year repeating glacial ages rule the habitability of the Northern Hemisphere. Regardless of man, Canada and all of Scandanavia and northern Europe, Russia & Siberia will disappear under kilometers of ice, again. That 110,000 year variation appears to be largely due to solar irradiance changes due to orbit changes of the Earth around the Sun.
The Long Term counts. All else is noise.
Actually, some scientists noticed early the the recent solar minimum we experienced was looking a lot like the Dalton minimum. And so far it continues to resemble it. If so, we are probably in for some cooler weather.
How do they work???
The Long Term counts. All else is noise.
True words. Thank you for your post, very inspirational, even if you probably didn't intend it to be. No matter what we do, want, need or hope for, the universe will do what it pleases.
We'd be better off if we lived accordingly, i.e. without sweating the small stuff.
Let's see what happens in the next couple of years. If the peak is supposed to happen in 2012 and we are looking at uncharacteristic low activity now, what will the shape of the activity lines show us? There are multiple possibilities and catastrophy theory suggests a violent outcome is not out of the question, but the probability is low. From the comments, I will agree the weather this year has been strange with record lows and highs all over the place and some at the same place. Right now, Florida is just getting over an early cold snap that threatens their agriculture while central and south Texas is unusually warm with some places in the eighties. New England and Europe are both suffering from the cold while, at the same time, Greenland and Ice Land are both well above their average temperatures for the same period. For what it is worth, here in Utah, my heating bill more than doubled from November to December and the December consumption was higher than the previous year by about seven percent. The Summer was cooler and late enough to trash my garden schedule. If this continues, I'll have to build green houses.