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White House Wants 1M Electric Cars By 2015

coondoggie writes "The White House has outlined a wide-ranging plan for putting one million of what it calls 'advanced technology vehicles' on the road by 2015. Most observers would say that is a good start, but is it reasonably doable? The next White House budget will include a number of investments and enticements to make the goal achievable in theory. Of course, not all of the provisions are likely to make the cut."

9 of 603 comments (clear)

  1. Re:1 step closer... by Cwix · · Score: 4, Informative

    Ive seen the way people drive when they are constrained by gravity. I would hate to see the way people drive when they could drive anywhere they chose. Cars over your house, cars in the woods, cars over lakes. Nuhh huh, you can keep your flying cars.

    --
    You are entitled to your own opinions, not your own facts.
  2. Plug In Cars by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 1, Informative

    A gallon of gas is equivalent to ~34kWh of electricity. At the relatively cheap rate of 10 cents per kWh, that means $3.40 in electricity costs to replace a gallon of gas. Plugging in seems to have no price advantage over filling up, and has the extra problems of range and charge time. That seems like a hard sell for the average driver. I'm certain in the future this will change, but pushing for volume before the tech and market conditions are ready may not be a good idea.

    1. Re:Plug In Cars by Solandri · · Score: 5, Informative

      A gallon of gas is equivalent to ~34kWh of electricity. At the relatively cheap rate of 10 cents per kWh, that means $3.40 in electricity costs to replace a gallon of gas. Plugging in seems to have no price advantage over filling up, and has the extra problems of range and charge time.

      The difference is in energy conversion efficiency. An internal combustion engine is about 25% efficient. Add in mechanical losses and gasoline refining/transport costs and you're at about 15% of the energy from the oil that comes out of the ground to drive the wheels of your car.

      Electricity has about 40% efficiency from a coal plant (higher for nuclear and renewables), 95% transmission efficiency to a person's house, and about 80% for battery conversion and electric motor efficiency. So overall about 30% of the energy from the coal drives the wheels of your car. Roughly twice as efficient as an ICE. Also note that the price you pay per kWh already takes into account the losses from the first two steps. So on a $ per mile basis, electric is about 5x cheaper than an ICE, assuming $3.40/gal gas.

      The same reason is why hydrogen generated from electrolysis is a dead end as a fuel. You're talking about 40% efficiency from coal plant to electricity, and (optimistically) 65% efficiency from electrolysis, then 70% for a hydrogen fuel cell, and 95% electric motor efficiency. Overall you're at 17% of the coal's energy driving your car's wheels, which is pretty much the same as existing ICE vehicles. Factor in the storage and transport problems along with lack of infrastructure, and hydrogen is worse than oil. It only becomes viable if we can get nuclear or renewables to generate most of our electricity, and realistically, only nuclear has a chance of that in the next 20+ years.

      (DIsclaimer: All numbers are ballpark what I remember off the top of my head. They may not be exact.)

  3. Strain on the Grid by alexander_686 · · Score: 4, Informative

    If it’s done right there would not be any strain.

    You can have the car charge during off peak hours. i.e. at night. This would add little strain to the infrastructure. Electricity also tends to be cheaper then. [Once again, off peak hours]. You just need to make it easy for the consumer so the plug it in when they come home put it does not start charging until 2 a.m.

    I think that Siemens even research using car batteries as a distributive back up power source. Now that would require some upgrades to our gird.

  4. Re:Sure It's Doable, Just Shift Subsidies by cayenne8 · · Score: 4, Informative
    Trouble is...even shifting money around is not what we need to be doing right now. We need to CUT spending...and drastically!! Cut things and use that to pay down the debt.

    I just heard on the news in the break room, that while the US still just barely has the top credit rating...they tell us that if we don't get the deficit under control pronto, they're gonna drop our credit rating.

    Man, you think things are bad now...wait till THAT shoe drops.

    --
    Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
  5. Re:Sure It's Doable, Just Shift Subsidies by geekoid · · Score: 4, Informative

    Or raise taxes.

    We can only cut so much.
    Shifting money around a thing we need to do right now, as well as take care of our deficit.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  6. Re:Cash for clunkers again, no doubt. by Alaska+Jack · · Score: 4, Informative

    You describe Cash for Clunkers as "wildly successful." First, you do understand that this was Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood's characterization of the program, right? And that Ray LaHood is the political appointee with the single greatest interest in painting the program in a positive light?

    Economists have a different understanding of Cash for Clunkers. It was "wildly successful" among the upper-middle-class types who actually used the program; and a raw deal for everyone else. Economists Amir Sufi (Cal Berkley) and Atif Mian (Chicago) studied the program extensively. They found that ultimately, the program simply accelerated the purchases of middle and upper class types who *would have soon purchased new vehicles anyway.*

    The unintended side effect was taking hundreds of thousands of perfectly usable used vehicles off the market, decreasing supply and so increasing the price for people in the market for a used vehicle -- i.e., the poor. Used car prices went up an average of 10 percent.

    And of course, the actual money used to subsidize the new vehicles didn't come from thin air: It was *taken from everyone else* -- i.e., other taxpayers.

    Ultimately, it was Basqiat's Broken Window Fallacy writ large. *Destroying things* -- whether they be windows or old cars -- does not create wealth. All we did was destroy the value inherent in the used cars, then create the illusion of "wild success" by transferring some wealth from group A (public) to group B (program participants).

    So the "wild success" thing is a tautology. Of COURSE it was successful -- among the people it benefited. That's like saying Jesse James' bank-robbery spree was "wildly successful." For Jesse, you bet. For the bank's customers, not so much.

        - aj

  7. Re:Sure It's Doable, Just Shift Subsidies by optimus2861 · · Score: 4, Informative

    "Can only cut so much"? In 2005, the US federal government spent $2.47 trillion. Today the figure is $3.72 trillion. The fed.gov. hasn't even tried to cut since Clinton left office. Bush II had a bad enough fiscal record but Obama's making him look like a piker.

  8. Re:Sure It's Doable, Just Shift Subsidies by 99BottlesOfBeerInMyF · · Score: 3, Informative

    "Cutting government spending basically means punching the economy in the nose."

    Government does not create jobs nor grow the economy in any meaningful and lasting way.

    Not in the long term particularly, but it absolutely does in the short term. Cutting government funding cuts jobs because it is employing people and that's all there is to it. Cutting jobs leads to less people with real income which leads to less spending. In the long term it might even out, but we don't have that luxury as we're starting to come out of a depression.

    The only thing the government can do is impede job creation and economic growth, or get out of the way so the private sector can.

    I wonder if your realize what you wrote. Only the government can impede job creation or let the private sector impede job creation?

    The government absolutely can help job creation and often does.

    Keynesian economics has been proven not to work. Even JFK understood this.

    Modern descendants of Keynesian economics make up the most popular macroeconomic theories taught today. Oh, and citing JFK as your authority on the economy isn't exactly convincing.