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Why Nokia Is Toast
CWmike writes "It's hard to remember now, but there was a time when Finland was at the center of the cell phone universe. No more. Nokia is being killed by complexity. Along comes Microsoft with Windows Phone 7, delivering more complexity. My view is that Microsoft doesn't matter, writes Mike Elgan. Although Windows Phone 7 is a way better operating system than Symbian, Nokia's problem isn't Symbian, and the solution isn't Windows Phone 7. Nokia's problem is that it follows the losing strategies of the other losers in the market, and rejects the only two known winning strategies. There are way too many Nokia phones. This causes either choice paralysis, sending buyers screaming to Apple for relief, or buyer's remorse. Nokia should take the advice Steve Jobs gave to Nike CEO Mark Parker: 'Just get rid of the crappy stuff and focus on the good stuff.'" And maybe Nokia isn't toast at all:
reader high_rolla points out an interesting bit of speculation that the Nokia-Microsoft pact is part of a grand plan "to become the exclusive manufacturer of hardware for MS phones and tablets."
He loves it when a plan comes together
I'd be shocked if Nokia were "toast". They're still one of the biggest handset makers in the world, and their name recognition alone is worth billions in the market. And while guys like Steve Jobs are going "simplify!", there are millions of customers going "Really? This is all you've got? Where are all the choices?". Just because Apple's strategy is good for Apple doesn't mean it'll be good for Nokia, just like Mercedes isn't going to pursue the same strategy as Ford. They're both still going to make a lot of money.
Life is hard, and the world is cruel
Qt should be fine, too much heavyweight software uses it, and in worst case scenario - it's LGPL, ex-Trolltech people could pick it up.
... but considering main negotiator, it's not surprising they most likely didn't (though I'm not sure how workable it would be anyway, considering Metro UI...)
Still, sad - Nokia was in great position to say "want us to use winmob7? Allow Qt"
One that hath name thou can not otter
Ten times better than no chance is still no chance.
Nokia could have saved itself by going with an Android + MeeGo strategy.
Microsoft's phone efforts are DOA. It doesn't even matter anymore whether they are technically any good; WP has the stink of failure attached to it. And that stink won't disappear by hooking up with a failing phone company.
are they making a profit yet from R&D?
I bet some people within Microsoft are trying to forgot XBOX and cant.
Except that Nokia won't be the only WP7 out there. Heck, they are not out there today. Dell, Samsung, LG, and HTC all have WP7 phones today. For some of these companies, they also have Android phones. By the time Nokia has a Windows Phone 7, there may be half a dozen manufacturers with multiple models each. How does that fare for Nokia?
Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
Nokia could have done other things: (1)Push Meego. (2)Push Symbian. (3)Adopt Android. (4)Develop their own OS.
(1) Tried, it's not ready enough yet.
(2) That platform is a zombie walking around asking for more brains... I mean, R&D budget millions to gobble.
(3) Join the race to the bottom, compete in services with Google who happen to control your platform. Feel the fragmentation.
(4) What? Create another R&D sinkhole, while MeeGo is still around? Just what Nokia needs now.
My exception safety is -fno-exceptions.
Microsoft today most reminds me of a coral reef in the Caribbean. Still standing there, huge, menacing, misshapen and barnacle-encrusted. But dead. The environment has changed around it and it can't adapt.
So what about the XBox? It's a phenomenal success in console terms (given the console business model). Just look at the commercial services available through XBox Live. And Kinect has been doing brilliantly, a device that hackers are loving just as much as gamers.
Also WP7 has only been on the market for a matter of months so it's too early to come to a conclusion on that yet, Windows Mobile (which is of course in no way related to WP7) was a failure, but then again it was never meant to compete in this environment, it's over a decade old.
Then there's the enterprise software like Exchange and Sharepoint.
Sure MS aren't in the consumer gadget business, but that doesn't make them dead.
Could it be that with Nokia dependent on MS for phone software, the biggest holder of smartphone related patents is no longer a threat to Microsoft? Apple and Microsoft have some kind of patent sharing deal, which is good for Microsoft, but does Apple no good against Nokia's phone patents.
And Google's pretty much on their own. Maybe Motorola's got some protection to offer Android, but I personally don't like the idea of an emboldened Microsoft waving bullshit UI patents as a threat to Android with nobody left to countersue.
Posted from my Android phone. Oh, I can change this? There, that's better...