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Stanford, UCD Researchers Say 100% Renewable Energy Possible By 2050

thecarchik writes with news of an analysis published in Energy Policy by researchers from Stanford University and the University of California-Davis. "There are no technological or economic barriers to converting the entire world to clean, renewable energy sources, said author Mark Jacobson, a Stanford professor, saying it is only a question of 'whether we have the societal and political will.' During this decade, the two 'fuels of the future' will be electricity and gasoline. Beyond that, we can't project."

29 of 360 comments (clear)

  1. 2050 probably won't be good enough.. by intellitech · · Score: 4, Informative

    Hopefully before crude oil hits $250 a barrel (which will happen sometime around 2035 or later) and the world spins out of control. What's especially interesting is looking at the rising food costs and population growth side-by-side with peak oil graphs.

    --
    vos nescitis quicquam, nec cogitatis quia expedit nobis ut unus moriatur homo pro populo et non tota gens pereat.
    1. Re:2050 probably won't be good enough.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What's especially interesting is looking at the rising food costs and population growth side-by-side with peak oil graphs [inteldaily.com].

      Is it really that interesting? My kitchen has fruit from Mexico, cheese from Ireland, beer from Europe and the rest - while in country - is shipped across a continent to get to me.

      Of course food prices will go hand in hand with rising energy costs.

    2. Re:2050 probably won't be good enough.. by kangsterizer · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I think it's more about the money.
      Free energy? What else do you need once you have that.
      Free energy solves nearly everything. Of course, we might not actually get real renewable energy (100.00%) but if we do...
      Then you don't need to pay for light, heating directly. All other supplies can be operated on free energy as well and cost nearly zero.

      There's still a lot of other things requiring humans to work (medicine, entertainment, etc)) but all the basic needs could be fulfilled for everyone.
      It means, the rich couldn't exploit the poor anymore since the poor could just live on with minimum effort if he wanted to. Which also means things would get more equal. That's not something the rich will want to happen.

    3. Re:2050 probably won't be good enough.. by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yeah. Going to war worked SO well in Somalia. America got very heavily criticized for military interference in Africa's internal affairs. Citation: PBS. "Less than a year after having been welcomed by the Somali people as heroes, American soldiers were ambushed by Somali men, women, and children." Then, a year later, America didn't use its military to stop the Rwandan genocide, and got the blame for standing by and doing nothing. Don't trust me: listen to PBS. "The Triumph of Evil: How the West Ignored Warnings of the 1994 Rwandan Genocide and Turned Its Back on the Victims."

      I read this story somewhere on the net. One day, an African newspaper's headline read: "Three Headless Bodies Found".

      The next day: "Three Heads Found".

      The third day: "Heads Don't Match Bodies".

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    4. Re:2050 probably won't be good enough.. by ray-auch · · Score: 4, Informative

      Renewable != Free

      Wind power is renewable, the "fuel" is completely free, but collecting the wind and turning it into usable power is not free. Turbines have to be built, maintained, replaced at end of lfe, land to site them needs to be bought or rented etc. Overall, wind is often more expensive (and has to be subsidised as a result), at least per unit of electricity generated, than oil/gas at current prices.

    5. Re:2050 probably won't be good enough.. by spydum · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Gasoline is not the only thing derived from petroleum resources.. You will still depend heavily on OPEC for all of your plastics, fertilizers, pesticides, and thousands of other uses. So OPEC will still continue to be pretty difficult to ignore.

    6. Re:2050 probably won't be good enough.. by ShakaUVM · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Most of the war and the fights in the world that has lead to people suffering, also by hunger. Has been communism against democracy. And I don't know who to blame the most. To me it seems that the "Democratic" countries has done more damage than good. Look at vietnam, somalia etc etc.

      You don't know who to blame the most?

      Here's a clue: the Khmer Rouge murdered a million or two of their own people. And their numbers were vastly exceeded by the Soviets and the Red Chinese.

      Nothing the US or other democracies did can ever compare with the scope of genocides, atrocities, and mass starvations caused by communism in the 20th century.

    7. Re:2050 probably won't be good enough.. by mog007 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The Sahara is not a desert because of humans. It's a desert because of the motion of the Earth. The Earth wobbles like a top, it's why your astrological sign doesn't correspond to where the sun rises on the day you were born anymore. They were accurate about 2000 years ago, Leos being born with the sun in the constallation of Leo, and so on, but the precession of the Earth screwed that up. Similarly, the Sahara goes through forest->desert->forest every few thousand years. It's how Neanderthals were able to leave Africa and settle in Europe, but no members of our species were found in Europe until relatively recently. The Sahara dried up after some Neanderthals went through, and after it became a desert, our species was unable to traverse it. Until we got more advanced technology.

    8. Re:2050 probably won't be good enough.. by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The problem with nuclear power is that there is a lot of uncertainty. Solar thermal is too close for comfort, it's in the same order of magnitude now in cost/Watt and a few advances can easily tip the scale. Solar thermal can also be deployed a hell of a lot faster. No matter how much you liberalise the market and ease the regulations, no one is going to invest in nuclear where you can only start making money back after a couple of decades with that hanging over their heads ... not unless government shoulders some of the risk.

      Personally if I was the US government though I'd just throw a couple of 100 billion at solar thermal, buy out the patents and fill some deserts with solar thermal plants and build a HVDC network to distribute the electricity ... even if it's more expensive than nuclear it will be online faster, and the odds are good that during building the costs will drop.

      Nuclear is slow, messy, unnecessary and would set a terrible example to the rest of the world (nuclear power is always a proliferation risk).

  2. fools of the future by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    During this decade, the two 'fuels of the future' will be electricity and gasoline.

    Electricty isn't a fuel.

  3. Re:Perpetual energy is against the laws of physics by FauxPasIII · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Right. If only we had some sort of giant fusion reactor constantly sending us more energy... but what would we CALL it ?

    --
    25% Funny, 25% Insightful, 25% Informative, 25% Troll
  4. 40 years? I'll be dead by then ... by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ... so fuck 'em. My generation had a pain in the ass dealing with all the bullshit that mere existence dished out, so let's just let's just leave nuclear waste, lack of petroleum based fuels, etc, as a problem for forthcoming generations.

    --
    Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
  5. Re:Perpetual energy is against the laws of physics by Hammer · · Score: 3, Informative

    I'll bite on this troll...

    Renewable energy != perpetual energy
    Solar power, wind power, hydro power, burning plant matter are all viable renewable energy sources today.
    Incidentally all have been in use for the last... oohh 3000 years

  6. Re:40 years? I'll be dead by then ... by SeaFox · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Isn't thinking like this exactly what got us into the environmental and energy problems we have now?

  7. PR Puff Piece by jamesl · · Score: 4, Informative

    This Stanford PR piece has received a lot of "coverage" -- mostly cut and paste.

    Here are links to the original papers.
    http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/JDEnPolicyPt1.pdf
    http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/DJEnPolicyPt2.pdf

    We estimate that 3,800,000 5 MW wind turbines, 49,000 300 MW concentrated solar plants, 40,000 300 MW solar
    PV power plants, 1.7 billion 3 kWrooftop PV systems, 5350 100 MWgeothermal power plants, 270
    new 1300 MWhydroelectric power plants, 720,000 0.75 MWwave devices, and 490,000 1 MWtidal
    turbines can power a 2030 WWS world that uses electricity and electrolytic hydrogen for all purposes. ...
    Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic.

    I'm sure everybody will want to study the papers in detail. And hold on to your checkbooks.

    1. Re:PR Puff Piece by Olivier+Galibert · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Niiiiiiice. $19 trillions just for the wind turbines (around 5M each), $100 trillions for the rooftop PV systems (around 60K each), but there is no economic issue. Right.

      Only $135 billions for the dams (around 500M each)... if you can find 270 new places in where to put them...

          OG.

    2. Re:PR Puff Piece by ColdWetDog · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic.

      Not economic, eh? I suppose you can make any economic argument up and buttress it with facts and graphs and sell it to somebody, but if fails the sanity test. Even China who has the closest thing to a command economy on the planet is hell bent on running up coal and nuclear for the short term. We've barely started to bring 300 MW concentrated solar plants on line, much less create 50,000 of them, hydro is pretty much tapped out in most places and is a risky bet when you factor in climate change (hard to move the stupid things if rainfall predictions are wrong). Tidal and mwave are beta technologies at best and damned expensive ones at that. In the event that the authors of the study have missed it, we're in the midst of a generation changing recession with most of the first world countries who would putatively bankroll this non economic problem having major problems making next month's payroll.

      And even if the supposition is correct - even if it's 'only social and political' - how the hell do you plan on solving the most intractable issues that the human race has managed to come up with - that of getting along with each other? Politics is the art of the possible, not pixie dust and ponies (that's Steve Job's department).

      Some people really need to go outside sometimes.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    3. Re:PR Puff Piece by locofungus · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Niiiiiiice. $19 trillions just for the wind turbines (around 5M each), $100 trillions for the rooftop PV systems (around 60K each), but there is no economic issue. Right.

      85 million bbl/day oil consumption (2007)

      At $100 per bbl that's $8.5 billion per day or, by 2050 $120 trillion, almost exactly the same cost as you've given above.

      Oil is less than $100/bbl now but is almost certainly going to be a lot more than $100/bbl by 2050 (unless, of course, we've switched most of our power generation to alternatives so that there's no longer the same demand)

      Right now, migrating off oil is looking approximately economically neutral. There's a cashflow issue - if we do it over the next 40 years we're going to need about $3 trillion tied up in building new infrastructure (assuming it takes about 1 year from starting building to bringing something on line - dams are obviously slower, wind farms seem to be quicker). But the longer we leave it the more urgent it's going to become (eventually there will be a time when we have to be off oil) and the more cash we'll have to tie up in order to build the infrastructure more quickly.

      Tim.

      --
      God said, "div D = rho, div B = 0, curl E = -@B/@t, curl H = J + @D/@t," and there was light.
    4. Re:PR Puff Piece by a_n_d_e_r_s · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Even China who has the closest thing to a command economy on the planet is hell bent on running up coal and nuclear for the short term.

      China is the second largest wind power producer in the world and are quickly climbing the ranks to become #1.

      China is actually very heavily investing in wind power and about half of world wide wind power added during the first half of 2010 was in China.

      http://www.wwindea.org/home/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=21&Itemid=43

      Before the end of this year China will be the #1 wind power in the world surpassing USA.

      --
      Just saying it like it are.
  8. Thorium by JoeThoughtful · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Or we could start building Thorium reactors next year and move past all talk about a looming energy crisis.

  9. Re:Hydro? by intellitech · · Score: 4, Informative

    Reservoir sites usually contain lots of vegetation, and once underwater, the plants naturally decompose and release methane (a greenhouse gas). That's why it's considered "dirty." It's considered destructive because of the effect on migratory patterns, currents, and the overall eco-system surrounding the dam. There have also been reports of increased temperature levels around hydroelectric dams which can have a very harmful effect on surrounding wildlife.

    Thermal effects of hydroelectric power stations on the environment

    The Environmental Literacy Council - Hydroelectric Power

    --
    vos nescitis quicquam, nec cogitatis quia expedit nobis ut unus moriatur homo pro populo et non tota gens pereat.
  10. Re:Why would we want this? by icebraining · · Score: 3, Informative

    Why on earth would anyone want to remove yet another limit to human growth?

    Where do you see a correlation between access to energy and population growth?

    The countries with greater population countries are Liberia, Burundi, Afghanistan, Western Sahara, East Timor, Niger, Eritrea, Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Palestinian territories. Clearly they have too much access to energy.

    What we really need is a Chinese-style one child policy, or better yet incentives for no children at all.

    Because, not only that doesn't have any moral implications, as it clearly worked in reducing their population.

    Don't get me wrong, I agree that having many children with our current population is completely immoral, but I think that approach to dealing with the problem is misguided.

  11. Re:Why would we want this? by ShakaUVM · · Score: 3, Insightful

    >>We simply need to decrease the surplus population of ravenously resource-hungry bourgeoisie

    Yes, comrade! We must destroy the rapacious bourgeoisie that are breeding like rats and... oh, wait, what? All affluent countries are having problems with population *decreases* instead of exponential growth? Damn, I guess all you people stuck in the 1800s with Malthus are wrong, huh?

    The only people still undergoing large population expansions are the uneducated poor - and if you make the poor educated and wealthy, they magically stop having as many kids (well, it's maybe birth control instead of magic, but you get my point, comrade).

    >>What we really need is a Chinese-style one child policy, or better yet incentives for no children at all.

    Lord, you're just a walking stereotype of the tyrannical communist, aren't you? Weren't you supposed to have been purged back in the 40s alongside all your other fellow true believer Stalinists?

  12. Re:Why would we want this? by gtall · · Score: 3, Funny

    Yep, it is about time we think of protecting those Martians from the destructive colonial powers on Earth. While we're at it, we should declare all life in the solar system, e.g., Jovian, Saturnian, Uranian, Neptumian, Plutonian, etc. sacred and not to be even interacted with. With a bit more legislation, we can protect all life in the Milky Way from the destructive influences of humans. No need to stop there, let's do it as a favor to all life in the Universe. Hell, let's do it for the entire Multiverse. And let's not let time get in the way, let's protect all life past and future from humans.

    Everyone will be issued hari-kari knives and asked to do the dirty deed on Dec. 21, 2012. Before we do, we'll paint the Earth to look like a giant bullseye from space. That way, the asteroid Apophis can make doubly sure humans never, ever happen again. Repent! Save humanity! Die today!

  13. Re:Only a square 251km a side by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Huh? HVDC does do 1000s of kilometres, these lines are in operation. Now geopolitically this isn't an option for a lot of the world (the EU for instance would need solar thermal power plants in Africa ... and Africa is a shithole). The US however has plenty of deserts with plenty of sundays per year to be able to supply itself at very high uptimes even with limited storage (say one or two days).

    If it had the will the US could be energy independent in a couple of decades ... but the powers that be don't want that, no country is allowed any sort of independence any more. It would set a bad example and might prevent the rise of our neofeudalist overlords.

  14. Re:Only a square 251km a side by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 3, Informative

    Wikipedia has a link to Siemens which claims otherwise ...

    "The most economic solution for long-distance bulk power transmission, due to lower losses, is transmission with High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC). A basic rule of thumb: for every 1,000 kilometres the DC line losses are less than 3% (e.g. for 5,000 MW at a voltage of 800 kV)."

    With that you could get energy from the equator to Santa Claus without losing half the power (26% loss over 10000 Kilometre). Within the United States the losses would be negligible.

  15. Right, but it's fungible by brokeninside · · Score: 3, Interesting

    If fuel can be made from petroleum substitutes, this frees up petroleum for petro-chemicals, plastics, fertilizers, etc. I'd be slightly surprised, but only slightly, if US domestic production of oil couldn't satisfy all non-fuel needs in the US. And if can't, then there are all oil exporting non-OPEC nations like Canada, Great Britain, Russia, China, Mexico, Brazil, etc.

  16. Re:Yea right by Bemopolis · · Score: 3, Funny

    Seriously, I thought growing up I was supposed to have all the stuff shown on the Jetsons...

    You didn't because your parents kept voting for the Flintstones.

    --
    "I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
  17. Re:Overpopulation is a myth by bouldin · · Score: 3, Informative

    Wow, what a horrible site full of misinformation and straw man arguments.

    This site was funded by the Bradley Foundation, who also funded hard-right "think tank" groups such as PNAC, the Heritage Foundation, the American Enterprise Institute, and the Federalist Society. The authors affirm they are a network of "pro-life" groups.

    The site begins by linking belief in overpopulation to efforts to kill the poor and promote Chinese abortions, then proceeds with meaningless factoids (all the humans on earth could fit in Texas) to conclude that overpopulation is a myth.

    The only legitimate argument on the site is that the Earth can produce enough food, although the argument relies on petrochemical fertilizers, and does not acknowledge constraints on the petrochemicals.

    The site does not even acknowledge concerns about the high risk of global diseases, the massive amounts of waste products and pollution from industry and agriculture, or constraints on energy and water supplies. Oh, and nobody has even mentioned that there might not be enough jobs for everyone in the world.

    In one section, the authors "prove" the Earth's population will peak around 8 B in 30 years and begin to decline by linking to the UN Population DB and telling you to use the "low variant" model. They don't tell you that the other three models (constant fertility, medium, high) all show the population continuing to rise for the duration of the model (present - 2050).

    Talk about selective information. What a crock of shit.