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NASA Wants Spacecraft For Mars Return Trip

coondoggie writes "If we ever do get to Mars, getting home might prove to be as difficult. NASA today selected three companies — Alliant Techsystems, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman — to being the task of defining the spacecraft that will leave Mars, presumably at first loaded with red planet rock samples, then later possibly humans — for a safe trip back to Earth. The engineering challenges those three companies face are immense."

193 comments

  1. We better not get double billed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    We don't pay for any bids that specify the same ship design be used for the return as was used during the departure.

    1. Re:We better not get double billed by arth1 · · Score: 1

      It can't be. For one thing, you've used up almost all of your mass as fuel by the time you land at Mars.
      Then there's the pesky little detail that most people ignore, that Mars isn't a sister planet to Earth, but a tiny little ball that has more in common with Mercury and large moons than with Earth and Venus. You only need a tiny fraction of the boost to lift of from Mars compared to Earth.

  2. If I were to design it by CrazyJim1 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'd design it so it had just enough thrust to get back in Mars Orbit. Then I'd send a 2nd craft from Earth to ferry it back. I figure there is a lot of problems that could be solved by reducing that added fuel weight from it.

    1. Re:If I were to design it by BisexualPuppy · · Score: 0

      I'd design it so it had just enough thrust to get back in Mars Orbit. Then I'd send a 2nd craft from Earth to ferry it back. I figure there is a lot of problems that could be solved by reducing that added fuel weight from it. So, roughtly counting : 1.1/ Get spacecraft1 outside Earth gravity field 1.2/ Go to Mars. 1.3/ Descend. 1.4/ Go back to mars orbit. 2.1/ Get spacecraft2 oustide Earth gravity field 2.2/ Go to Mars and Get payload of spacecraft1 2.3/ Go to Earth 2.4/ Descend Not counting the fact you are doubling the technical staff needed, you'll need to escape Earth attraction 2 times, Mars's 1 time, you'll have to make the trip 2 times, and descend to earth or mars 2 times. This seems a bit overenginnered to me. What about : 1.1/ Get spacecraft1 outside Earth gravity field 1.2/ Get to Mars 1.3/ Descent 1.4/ Get outside Mars gravity field 1.5/ Get to Earth 1.6 Descent That's 2 escapes, 2 trips, 2 descents, 1 spacecraft, 1 staff. The spacecraft will certainly be bigger, heavier, more complicated, but that's nothing side by side with your proposition, to me.

    2. Re:If I were to design it by zill · · Score: 1

      The <br> tag inserts a line break. You're welcome.

    3. Re:If I were to design it by MachDelta · · Score: 1

      Why bother making the trip twice? The same ship that carries everything to mars can be used as a fueling depot in mars orbit for the lander to return to earth.

    4. Re:If I were to design it by skywatcher2501 · · Score: 1

      It may be cheaper to send the first part, see if it successfully gets back into Mars orbit after its surface mission. In case something goes wrong, they don't have to send the return stage. But yeah I don't really have numbers to back that up.

    5. Re:If I were to design it by Z00L00K · · Score: 1

      Essentially it may end up being a six stage rocket we are talking about.

      For a human transport I think that the following concept is what's needed.

      Stage 1 & 2 are to leave Earth.
      Stage 3 is for the transit phase to Mars.
      Stage 4 is for the return trip.
      Stage 5 is for landing.
      Stage 6 is for departure from Mars to Mars orbit.

      At arrival at Mars Stage 3 is discarded, Stage 4 left in orbit and Stage 5&6 are landed, at launch Stage 5 will be used as launch pad for Stage 6. However Stage 3 could still be useful by being placed in an orbital position that's 180 degrees from the Stage 4, in which case it may be an extra relay satellite for communications.

      If Stage 5 is correctly designed the fuel tanks may be emptied from remaining fuel and changed to be used as extra space for living and other activities. Stage 5 may also be carrying extra oxygen and water that can be left behind when the return trip is initiated.

      A sub-variant is to actually build the mars craft in orbit. This will allow for lighter versions of the Stages 3 and 4 because they won't need to take the load of the upper stages during launch and can be launched to orbit fully fueled. It will also make the event less risky. In this case stages 3 and 4 can be built of multiple smaller components assembled in space. And the weight will also be lower since 3 & 4 won't need to be aerodynamic.

      And assembling the craft in space will make it easier to find carrying capacity to earth orbit. A vessel that is to be launched fully assembled from Earth would dwarf the Saturn V rocket.

      For a robotic excursion with a return trip there won't be any need for life support, but the return vessel will in that case carry a load of rocks and sand samples.

      At arrival at earth Stage 4 needs to take care of braking the return vessel. If done right some acceleration and braking could be done using the Moon.

      --
      If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker would destroy civilization.
    6. Re:If I were to design it by suomynonAyletamitlU · · Score: 1

      The problem is (if I understand the orbital mechanics right; IANARS) that the launch window for getting to mars, or back, is rather small and occurs but rarely. If you send a rocket TO mars, it won't immediately come back, because the window to START travelling is shorter than the time it takes to get there.

      Additionally, the fuel needed in transit is actually much less than the fuel needed to get into and out of those kind of orbits--because space has no force opposing inertia. Getting a load from the surface of mars up to the speed of an incoming orbital rocket (in order to match orbits and dock) is pretty much the same fuel it would take to send it home on its own, and if you decelerate the incoming rocket, you not only have to accelerate the load from the surface, but now the rest of the rocket again too.

      Now, if you were talking about sending people back and forth, getting a few people up to orbital speed is different from getting those people plus food, water, and living quarters, but again, that rocket would have to sit in orbit until the next window anyway, so it'd be better to send both rockets at the same time rather than have it arrive and sit uselessly in orbit, or possibly to just make one large rocket, which is the primary model as-is.

    7. Re:If I were to design it by MachDelta · · Score: 1

      Yeah this is very similar to what I was picturing.

      No matter how you slice it, I think, a round trip to mars would be the largest/longest/most expensive/most complicated/quintessentially fantastic trip in human history.
      Yet i'm 27 and afraid I may not live to see it.

    8. Re:If I were to design it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is exactly what's planned. Shoot the sample into orbit. Pick it up and bring it home

    9. Re:If I were to design it by TamCaP · · Score: 1

      I think the launch window depends directly on the amount of fuel (or if you prefer, m/s) you are willing to spend. I would think (yet, also, IANARS) that the more m/s you are willing to spend (thus the more fuel you are willing to move to orbit from Earth) the larger your launch windows would be.
      And yes. Despite much smaller gravity well that Mars has, I guess it makes more sense to leave fuel for return trip in orbit than to take it to Mars surface. This way, if something goes wrong with the lander, you have a relatively "free" fuel depot in orbit for the next mission. In general, our space projects should be done as modular and with as much reuse of components as possible.

    10. Re:If I were to design it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Congratulations, you just re-invented Apollo!

    11. Re:If I were to design it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Apart from using the fuel tank for living or storage which wouldn't work since it would still be a toxic environment even after the fuel is emptied... Cool story bro

    12. Re:If I were to design it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So it would just wait in orbit of Mars for the several months or so it would take the return vehicle to get to Mars (if, as you suggest, we wait until the lander makes it back to orbit OK)?

    13. Re:If I were to design it by ckeo · · Score: 1

      Toxic ? hydrogen and oxygen ? Toxic ?
      put oxy in the hydrogen and hydrogen in the oxy and create water :\
      no moar Toxic.

    14. Re:If I were to design it by turbidostato · · Score: 1

      "Congratulations, you just re-invented Apollo!"

      It's not as if that idea didn't work.

    15. Re:If I were to design it by Issarlk · · Score: 1

      Easier:
      0. Get fuel tanks outside Earth gravity field
      0.1. land them on mars.
      1.1/ Get spacecraft1 outside Earth gravity field
      1.2/ Get to Mars
      1.3/ Descent
      1.35/ Refuel with tanks
      1.4/ Get outside Mars gravity field
      1.5/ Get to Earth
      1.6 Descent

      All this with a smaller ship.

    16. Re:If I were to design it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why does everyone see this as a planet to planet trip? This fascinates me, that people do seem to factor in the ISS.

      Here is how I see it:

      1. Getting people from Earth to ISS, and back is already figured out and happens every 3 months or so. Check.

      2. We then need some kind of interplanetary craft (IPC) that STAYS in orbit and docks at the ISS. People go from the ISS to the IPC, travel to locations in space and then back to the ISS. Then use standard Earth/ISS transport, see 1. This IPC needs to be what NASA, et. al. should be working on right now. Let private companies like Space X handle item 1. NASA should be looking at space assembly of the IPC from smaller parts that can fit in the CURRENT largest rockets (I believe that Delta IV Heavy and Atlas V Heavy are the ones). We would need a command and control module, a habitat module, a power plant module (think Nuclear, Fast Integral), and a propulsion module (think VASIMIR). This will fly the crew and Martian lander/return craft to Mars and then back home again. It stays in orbit at Mars while the crew uses the lander/return craft to go down to Martian surface.

      3. The Martian lander/return craft. Crafted of at least 2 parts on Earth launched and assembled in space at the ISS like the IPC, then attached to the IPC for the trip to Mars. Once in Martian orbit the craft separates from the IPC lands on Mars. Crew does their thing, get back into craft and return to IPC in orbit. All transmission from the lander is relayed to Earth via the IPC. See what I am doing here, keeping it simple. Once on board, the crew and IPC, can then jettison the lander or bring it home. The IPC leaves martian orbit and heads home to the ISS.

      We only need 2 crafts to do this, the IPC and the lander/return. The IPC would stay in space and be REUSABLE. We could do a test run using the moon. Things that also need to be looked at are some kind of artificial gravity on the IPC. Depending on how long the trip there and back is (VASIMIR should keep it short) we do want the astronauts to be able to walk on Earth once they do get back. I believe that chemical rockets would take 6 mos and the latest estimates on VASIMIR put it at 6 weeks. There will be tons of money in manufacturing and systems work for all the contractors to satiate themselves for years to come.

  3. WTF by Osgeld · · Score: 1, Insightful

    planning is fine but we have no realistic way to even get there let alone getting bulk material there

    this is like buying tires for a car you may not even buy sometime in the future, way to pork out some contractors licenses NASA

    1. Re:WTF by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      planning is fine but we have no realistic way to even get there let alone getting bulk material there

      this is like buying tires for a car you may not even buy sometime in the future, way to pork out some contractors licenses NASA

      I'd guess someone would have posted the same on Slashdot if it existed when they started building the Apollo LM.

    2. Re:WTF by inventorM · · Score: 1

      Haven't you heard of what SpaceX has been doing? They already have contracts to send probes to the Moon, as well as launching satellites into Earth orbit.

    3. Re:WTF by Nyeerrmm · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Huh?

      We have ways to get to Mars just fine. An Atlas V 541 is enough to get the massive MSL Curiosity Rover there, and a measly Atlas V 401 is plenty for the Maven orbiter coming after that.

      The hard part is getting back. I imagine grabbing resources from the surface and air to create rocket fuel while performing its mission will be the right way to go.

      A Mars Sample Return is where the Mars program is headed, and we have a roadmap to get there. And it will force the development of In-Situ Resource Development (ISRU), while will be of huge benefit to all future manned and unmanned programs.

    4. Re:WTF by peragrin · · Score: 1

      No the hard part is setting up the equipment to make an easier return trip.

      You use one really heavy lift vehicle to send the return rocket to orbit. if you send humans you need to send two or three so you have spares.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    5. Re:WTF by NEDHead · · Score: 1

      Getting back is easy - Just grab the bungee cord and hang on!

    6. Re:WTF by Frangible · · Score: 0

      It's not terribly different than going to the moon, which we've already done, and which the Russians have already done with a robotic probe returning lunar samples. Once you get going in space, it's not like there's a lot of friction, now is it?

      Mars' gravity will require more fuel than a moon trip for deceleration / liftoff, and the vectors involved will require more still, but it's hardly impossible.

      Your post makes Sergei Korolev and Wernher von Braun cry.

    7. Re:WTF by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes it is different. Mars has more gravity, so it requires more fuel - but that fuel weighs a lot, so that requires even more fuel to lift that extra fuel - so the launch problem snowballs as gravity increases. Think about how difficult it is to launch into orbit from Earth - it requires muttistage rockets. Fortunately Mars isn't as big as the Earth, but it is much bigger than the moon.

    8. Re:WTF by dwywit · · Score: 1

      What about sending a robot fuel tanker a little earlier? Even a previous launch window - send tanker, it lands on Mars, then send the manned mission. It refuels on Mars for the journey home - or am I being to simplistic?

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    9. Re:WTF by Smallpond · · Score: 1

      The Earth's orbital speed is 30,000 mps. Mars is 24,000 mps.

      http://www.vrzone.org/space/ has some tools to calculate Hohmann (minimum cost) orbital transfers as well as other choices.

    10. Re:WTF by Frangible · · Score: 1

      Yes, that's why I said "more fuel than a moon trip for deceleration / liftoff... will require more still". I'm not disputing that getting to Mars is harder than getting to the moon, or that it requires more fuel. My point was the fundamental engineering of lander, orbiter, flight vectors etc has been done, and it is not impossible.

    11. Re:WTF by Frangible · · Score: 1

      Yeah, as I said in my post, it takes more fuel than getting to the moon. My point was "more" does not equal "physically impossible" as the GP's post claimed. Both Russia and us have solved the fundamental engineering challenges involved (lander -> orbiter return) and while Mars is harder to get to, it's not impossible. In fact, we're already planning such a mission.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample_return_mission

      And that's a joint mission between NASA and the ESA... so I'm not sure why people think this is impossible.

  4. You mean the astronauts are returning? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I thought we sent those Jersey Shore kids one-way tickets...

  5. One Way by Monty845 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Who needs to come back. We should send a one way craft, there would be countless volunteers even if it was clear that they are never coming home. Once there, you could start working to establish a sustainable off planet colony... Would also make getting there a lot cheaper.

    1. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

      Who even has the money to pay for a Mars boondoggle, one-way or not?

      Where's the payback for the billions of dollars this will require? A new flavor of Tang? Another cool pen that writes upside down? Seriously, where is the cost-benefit analysis, who can possibly show that the price is justifiable to the taxpayer?

      We, along with Russia, simply do not have the money for such a frivolous project, even if the technical hurdles were surmountable. This is just another NASA pipe dream, stoked by science fiction and movie lore. Every dollar spent pursuing this project is a dollar flushed straight down the toilet (or, as some would say, graft for the contractors like Lockheed and Grumman who get the $ and don't have to produce anything tangible)

    2. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well said, sir. I wish I had some mod points.

    3. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The potential payoff is acquiring an entire planets worth of resources. Calculate that into your risk analysis.

      It actually goes farther than that. If we developed the technology for a mars trip it makes exploiting NEO's and the asteroid belt trivial.

      Every single generation will be able to say the same thing as you. Technology does not magically invent itself. There is no time like now to start working towards the ultimate goal of our species.

    4. Re:One Way by l0ungeb0y · · Score: 1

      True, we don't have the money.
      We should leave Mars exploration and colonization to China.

    5. Re:One Way by Arlet · · Score: 1

      Personally, I would be much more interested in a sample return mission than a Mars colony.

      The amount of materials you need to send over to establish a viable colony are also staggering. A small sample return mission is probably simpler.

    6. Re:One Way by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      The potential payoff is acquiring an entire planets worth of resources.

      What resources exist on Mars that would justify the cost of bringing them back to Earth?

      So long as a trip between Mars and Earth costs millions of dollars a kilo, we're extremely unlikely to find anything that has enough value to justify the cost.

    7. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is no need to ship anything -- the resources will have value for people who are on Mars. You need to think of the two places as being equal, not as one serving the interests of the other.

    8. Re:One Way by minstrelmike · · Score: 1

      Agreed. There are a lot of volunteers. I don't believe anyone on the Mayflower expected to return to England.

    9. Re:One Way by NEDHead · · Score: 1

      Actually, every dollar spent is cycled back into the economy, very effectively in fact during a high unemployment period. Moreover, we get to go to Mars in the end!

    10. Re:One Way by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      There is no need to ship anything -- the resources will have value for people who are on Mars.

      What 'people who are on Mars'?

    11. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Why are you interested in a sample return mission? If it's to do scientific analysis on the rock, then it's cheaper to send robotic equipment to Mars and do the analysis there.

    12. Re:One Way by rudy_wayne · · Score: 1

      Who even has the money to pay for a Mars boondoggle, one-way or not?

      Where's the payback for the billions of dollars this will require? A new flavor of Tang? Another cool pen that writes upside down? Seriously, where is the cost-benefit analysis, who can possibly show that the price is justifiable to the taxpayer?

      We, along with Russia, simply do not have the money for such a frivolous project, even if the technical hurdles were surmountable. This is just another NASA pipe dream, stoked by science fiction and movie lore. Every dollar spent pursuing this project is a dollar flushed straight down the toilet (or, as some would say, graft for the contractors like Lockheed and Grumman who get the $ and don't have to produce anything tangible)

      Too many people have forgotten that landing a man on the moon was not driven by science, it was driven by politics -- specifically the fear of the Soviet Union. The Russians put the first man in space and the US was afraid that if the Soviet Union got to the moon it would somehow give them some sort of military advantage. With that (stupid) fear out of the way, we can now see that sending people to the moon or Mars is a pointless waste of money.

    13. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How the hell will they eat, live, over even breathe? Seriously, this isn't like riding the Mayflower. Instead we'll just watch them asphyxiate when their O2 runs out. Yeah, a real milestone for humankind. Killing people on a different planet.

      Oh, Im sure you have quite a list of improbable yet to be invented yet alone be economically feasible technology that will somehow terraform Mars enough for them to get by.

    14. Re:One Way by bazorg · · Score: 1

      We, along with Russia, simply do not have the money for such a frivolous project,

      well print some more then.

    15. Re:One Way by Frangible · · Score: 1

      Valentina Tereshkova (first woman in space) said recently she'd be happy to volunteer for a one-way trip to Mars. I'm sure you could find other veteran astronauts and cosmonauts who feel the same. I think it's a bit ghoulish, personally... the Russian scientists who sent Laika up on a one-way trip (first animal / dog in space) regretted it. I think we'd owe it to the astronauts and/or cosmonauts to at least *attempt* to bring them home safely.

    16. Re:One Way by Frangible · · Score: 1

      Yeah, you teabaggers really need to take a fucking macroeconomics course. Bunch of ignorant, cheap, un-American, social-security sucking parasites. Keynesian economics... look into it.

      Keynesian economics dictate that direct government spending is the most efficient economic stimulus, followed closely by tax cuts. Even if you think such a project is a waste of money, it isn't -- the hiring of American engineers, American workers, American astronauts etc ultimately returns *more* tax dollars to the government than the program costs. Period. That's basic macroeconomics 101, if you don't understand that, there's the door, GTFO.

      The Space Shuttle program alone employs 25,000 people *directly*. That's government workers, in addition to the thousands of other contractors and businesses it benefits. And these are skilled labor positions -- engineering and science, that improve America's technological leadership and education.

      If you think the government spending $0 on everything is great idea, go build your undersea city with Andrew Ryan already. Because the only thing that's actually going to do is create further deficit by decreasing tax revenues more than the expense of the programs.

    17. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The one-way volunteers, or people from the sustainable off planet colony. See the first post of the thread.

    18. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are much better uses of the money, on projects that are much more likely to succeed and to have wildly better payback...like alternative energy research, medical research, etc. If you're going to spend a trillion dollars, it's not out of line for taxpayers to demand it be spent on something that's more than just a sci-fi geek's ejaculatory wish list.

    19. Re:One Way by Laser+Lou · · Score: 1

      Well, we can better analyze the samples they collect back on earth. Also, travelling the Mars will be hard on the astronauts, and the experience they gain would be invaluable for future missions.

      --
      No data, no cry
    20. Re:One Way by khallow · · Score: 1

      Keynesian economics dictate that direct government spending is the most efficient economic stimulus, followed closely by tax cuts.

      What does reality "dictate"? That's what counts. For example, Japan has been pursuing hardcore Keynesian stimulus plans for the last twenty years. Hasn't helped them.

      The Space Shuttle program alone employs 25,000 people *directly*.

      That's a variation of the broken window fallacy. If we didn't have those people working on the Shuttle, they'd be working on something productive instead. End result is that US society misses out on the value of their labor.

    21. Re:One Way by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      The one-way volunteers, or people from the sustainable off planet colony. See the first post of the thread.

      The post I was replying to was talking about 'acquiring another planet's resources'. What value do those resources have to the people on Earth who are apparently going to pay for these 'volunteers' to go there?

      You can't use Mars resources to justify the cost of going to Mars if the only use for those resources is to sustain those people who are going to Mars.

    22. Re:One Way by khallow · · Score: 1

      If it's to do scientific analysis on the rock, then it's cheaper to send robotic equipment to Mars and do the analysis there.

      In the real world, scientific analysis isn't done by a few instruments like a tricorder. You don't wave the box and science comes out. Real scientific instruments often have some flexibility, but in the end, they are all limited in what they can do. A space probe to another world can only do a few things.

      But OTOH, if you bring those samples to Earth, then you can bring to bear the entire power of human science, the massive infrastructure that can do more with a sample from Mars than a lifetime of probes could do to that sample on Mars.

    23. Re:One Way by khallow · · Score: 1

      Instead we'll just watch them asphyxiate when their O2 runs out.

      Why would their O2 run out? The Martian atmosphere has a lot of carbon dioxide in it. You can pull oxygen from that. And the tools that can do that, often produce human-edible food in the process. You know what terraforming they need to do? Build some stuff such as airtight living quarters, greenhouse, etc.

    24. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Alright, if you really need an economic reason for everything... The resources will be used to sustain the people on Mars. Mars will have universities and research centers. Those research centers could make important discoveries like a cure to cancer or a way to do cold fusion. That knowledge can be transmitted back to Earth and its value can exceed the original cost of going to Mars.

    25. Re:One Way by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      To send an instrument to mars you have to make your instruments tough enough to survive going to mars and have a VERY high chance of working. That means they will likely be a long way from state of the art at the time the mission is planned and even further behind by the time they actually make it to mars. Then a few years later when you want readings from newer better equipment you have to start from scratch.

      With a sample return mission you can analyse with the latest equipment and provided you bring back a sufficiant quantity you can keep analysing for many years with new equipment.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
    26. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Everything necessary to establish a base on the Moon would have to be done on Mars. Doesn't it make sense that a moonbase should be established before any attempt on the surface of Mars? Honestly, why would you want to drop back into the gravity well of a planet incapable of supporting life, only to live in the equivalent of a space station?
      A mission to reshape Phobos and Deimos into habitable enclosed environments, that I can get behind, or Mars as a science experiment, I can relate to that, but Mars as a colony needs to stay confined to Hollywood fiction.
      Robots to Mars, people to the Moon(s) & space. The culture that is able to thrive in space is the culture that will speak for humanity.

    27. Re:One Way by turbidostato · · Score: 1

      "where is the cost-benefit analysis, who can possibly show that the price is justifiable to the taxpayer?"

      Not everything must be thought in terms of ROI. VOI is even more useful for strategic planning. And the strategic value for Humankind of being able to reach one planet apart from Earth is immense.

    28. Re:One Way by turbidostato · · Score: 1

      "That's a variation of the broken window fallacy. If we didn't have those people working on the Shuttle, they'd be working on something productive instead. End result is that US society misses out on the value of their labor."

      Given current world economics is quite arguable that the best way for the USA to expend money is in high tech research, being the effort of going to Mars probably a very good example.

    29. Re:One Way by turbidostato · · Score: 2

      "We, along with Russia, simply do not have the money for such a frivolous project"

      Still you had some 1,2 to 2,4 trillions to spend in wars since 2001. Obviously Iraq and Afghanistan are not so frivolous projects.

      "Where's the payback for the billions of dollars this will require? A new flavor of Tang? Another cool pen that writes upside down? Seriously, where is the cost-benefit analysis, who can possibly show that the price is justifiable to the taxpayer?"

      There was a time when a US citizen could have a sense of pride of being American and other countries would have a sense of sane envy of them. This came from the fact that USA was able to achieve things no others could, that USA was able to pursue memorable goals and get at them.

      Now you have your economy mortaged to China, the "terror theater" and "but will it increase our next quarter profits?" No wonder you ask for the ROI instead of trying to go to Mars "just because it's there".

    30. Re:One Way by babtras · · Score: 1

      Considering money in our world is imaginary and borrowed into existence, wouldn't any amount of expenditure be justified to bring back even the slightest tangible resource? Even if it is just a moderate advancement in technology.

    31. Re:One Way by ezratrumpet · · Score: 1

      I bet it's already happened with death-row prisoners.

    32. Re:One Way by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Ha, right. Did you maybe miss what happened to the shuttle program when some astronauts got killed? NASA sending a crew to slowly die on Mars on evening television would probably be the end of the whole US space program.

      And die they would. We're nowhere near having the capability to put a self sustaining base on Mars.

    33. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you're going to rail against pork spending, at least rail against the right pig. We have the money for a LOT of things. It's just that we spend most of what should be discretionary money on an enormous military. https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

    34. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What does reality "dictate"? That's what counts. For example, Japan has been pursuing hardcore Keynesian stimulus plans for the last twenty years. Hasn't helped them.

      Canada has tipped its collective hat to Keynes on a fairly regular basis, and it has worked out pretty well (the projects are/were called "crown corporations"). It's a good way to get something done, IIRC Americans have also employed it successfully in the past. It works well so long as everyone plays ball, no one tries to get rich.

    35. Re:One Way by melchoir55 · · Score: 1

      Who even has the money to pay for a Mars boondoggle, one-way or not?

      Where's the payback for the billions of dollars this will require? A new flavor of Tang? Another cool pen that writes upside down? Seriously, where is the cost-benefit analysis, who can possibly show that the price is justifiable to the taxpayer?

      We, along with Russia, simply do not have the money for such a frivolous project, even if the technical hurdles were surmountable. This is just another NASA pipe dream, stoked by science fiction and movie lore. Every dollar spent pursuing this project is a dollar flushed straight down the toilet (or, as some would say, graft for the contractors like Lockheed and Grumman who get the $ and don't have to produce anything tangible)

      You and your kin are why humans will one day become extinct.

    36. Re:One Way by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      Valentina Tereshkova (first woman in space) said recently she'd be happy to volunteer for a one-way trip to Mars.

      And, in a few weeks, she'll be 74 years old.

      I'm sure you could find a bunch of people who would be willing to volunteer. The question is whether or not these people would actually be worth sending to Mars. I'd rather send a bunch of scientists (geologists, biologists, etc.) who are interested in doing research and returning to Earth in order to publish their findings than a bunch of suicidal thrill-seekers who are looking for some way to get their names in the history books.

    37. Re:One Way by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Best damn post going. Sad, but so true. For the last 30 years, our nation has been buried by politicians that speak of a balanced budget while at the same time running up monster deficits during good economic times. We have idiots blaming Obama, but those same idiots voted for reagan and W. reagan/W were responsible for causing nothing but chaos in the world, while destroying America's abilities to compete and further itself.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    38. Re:One Way by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      And the strategic value for Humankind of being able to reach one planet apart from Earth is immense.

      Well start with a list already. Getting men on the moon was a waste of money, they would have got better science out of the money by using even 1960s robotics. Today robotics is even better. So what "immense" strategic value do we get from single human mission that does many many times less than the 100s of robotic missions that could have been sent instead?

      What "immense" value do I get when the people send die before they get there?

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    39. Re:One Way by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      But what kind of robotic lab can I get with the mass budget needed for several humans+life support. Such a lab does not need to return, does not get sick from radiation effects etc. Also if it does die, this is still 100x more politically tenable and a human. However we can go much smaller and still get a lot done, probably cheaper than sample return. Since i can always send a follow on lab after i have some results and this would still be cheaper than sample return.

      It would be cheaper to devlop and send such a robotic lab that would be capable of a huge amount of science.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    40. Re:One Way by DSP-9 · · Score: 1

      You cant establish a colony overnight. Building a sealed biosphere is hard enough. From where must all the consumables (food, water, fuel) come from? Terraforming is out of the question (atleast right now).

    41. Re:One Way by cowboy76Spain · · Score: 1

      Oh, the old "broken window fallacy" fallacy... :-P

      Now seriously, two things:

      • Keynes does not advice breaking windows and then replacing them to increase budget. He says that would work, too, but it is better if you get something usable (infrastructure, science, technology...) in return.
      • The broken window fallacy exists only when people would use that money to invest, not to store it due to uncertainty and fear. Do not know about USA but here in Spain there is a serious credit crunch, getting a credit is very difficult no matter how interesting the inversion might be. Taxes in property/deficit would put money back in economy and that would be a good thing.
        A similitude could be made with deflation. In deflation, people wants to keep money instead of buying things because the instant they but something, they are losing value (it would be cheaper to but it later). So, breaking their windows means they are forced to buy and reactive the economy.
      --
      Why can't /. have a rich-text editor? Editing your own HTML is so XXth century.
    42. Re:One Way by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      NASA sending a crew to slowly die on Mars on evening television would probably be the end of the whole US space program.

      I would guess that about half the Presidents and most of the Senators of the last 50 years would consider the cost of a one-way Mars mission a small price to pay to be able to defund NASA for good.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    43. Re:One Way by khallow · · Score: 1

      You still have to consider the opportunity cost of whatever science or technology development you could have done in place of the Shuttle and associated programs such as the ISS. A lot of good stuff got discarded because the Shuttle sucked all the oxygen out of the room.

    44. Re:One Way by Issarlk · · Score: 1

      The people we sent to mine the resources! Duh!

    45. Re:One Way by khallow · · Score: 1

      Oh, the old "broken window fallacy" fallacy... :-P

      It doesn't matter how old the flaw is.

      Keynes does not advice breaking windows and then replacing them to increase budget. He says that would work, too, but it is better if you get something usable (infrastructure, science, technology...) in return.

      There's one gaping problem with this idea. We don't enough to make this judgment.

      The broken window fallacy exists only when people would use that money to invest, not to store it due to uncertainty and fear.

      In other words, you don't have a clue what investment is. Most people would agree that insurance is investment. You are insuring against expensive future events which can cripple your finances and cause low cash flow. Similarly, saving (also called "storing due to uncertainty and fear") is investing against expensive future events like losing a job or needing a down payment on an expensive asset.

      This is the sort of conceit that is common to people who want to spend Other Peoples' Money. They believe they can spend my money better than I can. And to rationalize it, they trivialize my investment choices.

      My view is that Keynesian spending kills the value of a recession, which is to cull the weakest businesses. I don't think it's a coincidence that US economic dominance started to decline in the 70s after a few decades of Keynesian spending.

      In any case, we now have two recessions that didn't work out due to Keynesian-like bailouts, the Japanese recession and the current US recession. Sure, it's a mockery of true Keynesian spending since the money is taken from investment and spent on activities with obvious poor returns, but this is the true endgame for the Keynesian strategy. It only appears to work when you have relatively competent people in charge and the recession isn't too deep. I think it inevitable that the incompetent eventually get in charge (especially since Keynesian spending helps protect incompetent business leaders in the first place) and something like this happens.

    46. Re:One Way by khallow · · Score: 1

      Canada has tipped its collective hat to Keynes on a fairly regular basis, and it has worked out pretty well (the projects are/were called "crown corporations"). It's a good way to get something done, IIRC Americans have also employed it successfully in the past.

      Most countries have at one point or another. Here's the thing you miss. You don't know what it'd be like in the absence of substantial Keynesian spending. My view is that it wouldn't be much different. The key difference between the recessions before the Great Depression and the recessions afterward isn't the presence of Keynesian spending, it's better accounting and transparency of public businesses.

      The thing to remember is that most recessions are light and brief. Keynesian spending might make those recessions even briefer and lighter, but it doesn't really help. It also weakens one of the reasons to have a recession, to cull the weakest businesses.

      It works well so long as everyone plays ball, no one tries to get rich.

      Uh huh.There's a real simple definition of "rich". It means being wealthy enough that you do not have to work. Who wouldn't want that? So given that most people want it, and most of those people are trying for it one way or another, what gives your economic policies higher weight than the desires of all these people?

    47. Re:One Way by khallow · · Score: 1

      But what kind of robotic lab can I get with the mass budget needed for several humans+life support.

      It's rare that I see a case of technophilia go this far. You can get several humans+life support. Best robotic lab out there.

      Current robotic missions are chosen only due to cost/mass constraints. If you're going to do the absolute minimum space science on another world, then you do what the space agencies of the world currently do. You occasionally send probes.

    48. Re:One Way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most countries have at one point or another. Here's the thing you miss. You don't know what it'd be like in the absence of substantial Keynesian spending. My view is that it wouldn't be much different. The key difference between the recessions before the Great Depression and the recessions afterward isn't the presence of Keynesian spending, it's better accounting and transparency of public businesses.

      The thing to remember is that most recessions are light and brief. Keynesian spending might make those recessions even briefer and lighter, but it doesn't really help. It also weakens one of the reasons to have a recession, to cull the weakest businesses.

      #
          If done well, a Keynesian expenditure is used to build a foundation which is eventually economically self-perpetuating, but is simply not profitable to pursue privately at the moment. My assumption here, is that the numbers have been crunched, and that access to space (in the long term) has been deemed economically feasible & necessary, for the USA. The stretch is just too great, apparently, for the companies who might pursue it.
      #

      It works well so long as everyone plays ball, no one tries to get rich.

      Uh huh.There's a real simple definition of "rich". It means being wealthy enough that you do not have to work. Who wouldn't want that? So given that most people want it, and most of those people are trying for it one way or another, what gives your economic policies higher weight than the desires of all these people?

      #
          Well, one circumstance is when you cannot pursue greater-than-average riches because your professional niche, or the general economy, simply doesn't allow it. Sure, there are people who would like to be very wealthy, never have to work again, I can't deny that the notion appeals to me. There are also a good number of people would like a 40 hour work week and enough money to raise a family.
          And, let's be clear here, I'm not trying to convince anyone that one method is superior to the other ("weight"), I am just counter-pointing your notion that a Keynesian nudge isn't a viable solution. A time-allowance to let laissez-faire economics play out would also be preferable, to me, but the problem with your suggestion is that it is dependent on a free, competitive market, and frankly, I just don't see that open, independent streak anywhere in North America, any more. The markets are, IMO, locked down, and those who have influence do not appear interested in promoting competition (except maybe in labour/wages). There simply isn't enough market will to argue a case for employing Smith, any more; the realty of the market suggests that a managed solution, in one form or another, must be enacted.
          Having said that, I think you're probably right, the pirate's mindset (take what you can, give nothing back) will keep any kind of Keynesian endeavour from succeeding in the US - too many people too eager to pocket too much, not a lot of motivation to do it properly. Perhaps it will take a much harsher economic climate to lower economic expectations to make a program like that work.

    49. Re:One Way by cowboy76Spain · · Score: 1

      Oh, the old "broken window fallacy" fallacy... :-P

      It doesn't matter how old the flaw is.

      In fact the idea of the line was to show that I can call the "broken window fallacy" a fallacy (the "broken window fallacy fallacy"). As people usually just state a lemma and treat it as self-explaining truth, I like to twist their words a little to "break the dogma". In later lines I explain why I don't think it is as simple as the OP stated.

      Keynes does not advice breaking windows and then replacing them to increase budget. He says that would work, too, but it is better if you get something usable (infrastructure, science, technology...) in return.

      There's one gaping problem with this idea. We don't enough to make this judgment.

      I like my fries with ketchup, and the statements with verbs. Thank you very much.

      Maybe you were going to say "We do not know enough to make this judgement". Well, I think history has shown it that, while not a "cure-it-all" magical formula, it does works. The point is, if you think we do not know enough about it being trugh, then why do you oppose it later in your post?

      The broken window fallacy exists only when people would use that money to invest, not to store it due to uncertainty and fear.

      In other words, you don't have a clue what investment is. Most people would agree that insurance is investment. You are insuring against expensive future events which can cripple your finances and cause low cash flow. Similarly, saving (also called "storing due to uncertainty and fear") is investing against expensive future events like losing a job or needing a down payment on an expensive asset.

      No, you don't have a clue what investment is. The only relation of saving money with investing is that you save it in a bank (security boxes apart), then the bank may lend your money for someone to invest it.

      This is the sort of conceit that is common to people who want to spend Other Peoples' Money. They believe they can spend my money better than I can. And to rationalize it, they trivialize my investment choices.

      Sorry, didn't knew you were investing in windows. The trouble is defining what is better, and for who. Let's say that an economic policy causes 1.000.000 people become unemployed, but allows you to change your BMW by a Ferrari. It is better for you, but for one million people it is worse. And don't misunderstand me (again), I am not talking that you can not defend getting your Ferrari over all. But don't overstate that other people might not think the same. In particular, given the option, I will always vote for one million people working against your/my Ferrari. If you do not want it and lose the vote, you can try going to Mars so you do not have a Government (but there are no roads there for your Ferrari). You can also try to be de Government (there have been a few job openings in North Africa lately).

      My view is that Keynesian spending kills the value of a recession, which is to cull the weakest businesses. I don't think it's a coincidence that US economic dominance started to decline in the 70s after a few decades of Keynesian spending.

      Multiple item line here:

      • I think you are confusing keynesianism with bailouts.
      • Your criterium of "weakest" is very curious (small? with less assets?). Take two bussiness A and B, equal. A decides to innovate, invest (buy new tech, hire better workers, so on), B just keeps doing as usual. The crisis comes and demand falls, B has savings and A investesments. In your view A is "weakest" because they did the right thing in the wrong time (and that was out of their control). In resume, your point only measures reserves, nothing else (neither productivity nor value provided
      --
      Why can't /. have a rich-text editor? Editing your own HTML is so XXth century.
    50. Re:One Way by khallow · · Score: 1

      If done well, a Keynesian expenditure is used to build a foundation which is eventually economically self-perpetuating, but is simply not profitable to pursue privately at the moment.

      If done poorly, it can be much worse than doing nothing at all while if done well, it might be better than doing nothing at all. The remarkable thing about Keynesian economics is that it is frequently treated as being a solid theory, such as evolution or the theory of gravity. It's an unproven strategy, not a law nor a theory.

      My view is that Japan's efforts to recover from the 1990-1991 recession and the US's similar efforts to recover in sequence from the dotcom bubble, 9/11, and the recent financial crisis indicate that the strategy has huge flaws. The money doesn't always go to valid investments.

      There's no understanding of whether it works or not. There is an implicit assumption that shallow recessions are better than deeper recessions. And that money spent by government is somehow better than reduced taxes. Government spending is driven by government borrowing, which tends to dry up private borrowing.

      And for deep recessions we have considerable evidence that Keynesian spending doesn't work in the long run. As I mentioned before, we have both the examples of Japan and the US. Both remain powerful economies, but their rate of growth has slowed dramatically because of the foolish Keynesian policies that have been implemented over the years.

      My assumption here, is that the numbers have been crunched, and that access to space (in the long term) has been deemed economically feasible & necessary, for the USA. The stretch is just too great, apparently, for the companies who might pursue it.

      Speaking of poor investments masquerading as good ones, space policy since the 70s is a sterling example of the waste inherent in this sort of strategy. The mind-boggling ineffectiveness of the Shuttle and eventually of the ISS, should remind us all that "space access" need not lead to activity in space.

      Well, one circumstance is when you cannot pursue greater-than-average riches because your professional niche, or the general economy, simply doesn't allow it.

      In other words, your labor isn't worth enough.

      Sure, there are people who would like to be very wealthy, never have to work again, I can't deny that the notion appeals to me. There are also a good number of people would like a 40 hour work week and enough money to raise a family.

      I imagine there's a lot of overlap between those two groups.

      A time-allowance to let laissez-faire economics play out would also be preferable, to me, but the problem with your suggestion is that it is dependent on a free, competitive market, and frankly, I just don't see that open, independent streak anywhere in North America, any more. The markets are, IMO, locked down, and those who have influence do not appear interested in promoting competition (except maybe in labour/wages). There simply isn't enough market will to argue a case for employing Smith, any more; the realty of the market suggests that a managed solution, in one form or another, must be enacted.

      Do you know how locks are broken in a laissez faire economy? Aging companies grow stagnant and complacent and eventually get crushed by competition. A Keynesian economy saves those failures from destruction, establishing the very "locked down" market that you claim needs Keynesian spending because it is locked down.

      In other words, most of the world including the US suffers from decades of poor Keynesian strategy. Your proposed solution is the hair of the dog.

    51. Re:One Way by khallow · · Score: 1

      As people usually just state a lemma and treat it as self-explaining truth, I like to twist their words a little to "break the dogma". In later lines I explain why I don't think it is as simple as the OP stated.

      Since you don't get it, here is the "broken window". Where does all the Keynesian spending come from? It is borrowed from future taxpayers. The "broken window" is the loss of those future taxpayers' wealth for a dubious, short term strategy, substituting your poor economic decisions for the sounder economic decisions of the people you took the money from.

      The only relation of saving money with investing is that you save it in a bank (security boxes apart), then the bank may lend your money for someone to invest it.

      This is the type of remarkable ignorance I'm talking about. From the definition you cite:

      the investing of money or capital in order to gain profitable returns, as interest, income, or appreciation in value.

      Interest on a savings account is profitable returns, hence savings accounts are an investment. Even in situations where people bury their money in coffee cans in the backyard, they still do it because they think the choice is better than what else they could do with the money. In other words, they consider the strategy more profitable. I would consider that an investment choice as well. Sure a poor one, but an investment just the same.

      It's a lot better than making the gross error of deciding some investments aren't, because you need a convenient rationalization to spend their money.

      In your view A is "weakest" because they did the right thing in the wrong time (and that was out of their control).

      Yep. I guess you don't have any understanding of running a business. A well-run business can be more effective than a business running on buzzwords such as "innovation" and "investment". Plus you miss the most important point, business B, despite its flaws, invested better and had better risk management than business A.

      Again, you are mistaking bailouts with Keynes...

      I am conflating not mistaking. And I explained my reasoning. The businesses that benefit from Keynesian spending engage in regulatory capture turning Keynesian spending into bailouts. Again, it is the endgame for Keynesian economics.

  6. and... by Starteck81 · · Score: 1

    ... and a pony. It's not going to happen until the economy picks up considerably or we get into a space race with China to see who can get there(and back) first.

    --
    "There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order." -Ed H
    1. Re:and... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Even if we win, they win - most of the parts will still be Made In China.

      But that won't happen. If the Chinese wants us to not go to Mars, all they have to do is make a phone call. They own so much of our debt now that they pull the strings. The fiscal point of no return was reached about three years ago.

  7. Pale red dot by Palmsie · · Score: 3, Interesting

    "There does not seem to be sufficient short-term profit to motivate private industry. If we humans ever go to these worlds, then, it will be because a nation or a consortium of them believes it to be to its advantage" -Sagan

    --
    Carl Sagan quotes get you an automatic +5 on all posts.
    1. Re:Pale red dot by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      "There does not seem to be sufficient short-term profit to motivate private industry. If we humans ever go to these worlds, then, it will be because a nation or a consortium of them believes it to be to its advantage" -Sagan

      No, it will be because the cost of getting there has dropped into a range that rich tourists can afford. Otherwise there's no particularly good reason to go to Mars when all the resources we need to live in space are floating around waiting for us in asteroids and comets.

    2. Re:Pale red dot by l0ungeb0y · · Score: 1

      Well, part of the cost is the *time* involved. It's doubtful a Mars tourist trip would be feasible in even a dozen generation's time.
      A spinning roulette wheel orbital casino a la Cowboy Bebob would be the best bet. It'd be faster and easier to get to as well as generate artificial gravity, making it easier to keep hold of your cards and chips, and having sex with space hookers... sex in zero-g is not sexy at all.

    3. Re:Pale red dot by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Well, part of the cost is the *time* involved. It's doubtful a Mars tourist trip would be feasible in even a dozen generation's time.

      Bill Gates could probably afford it today if he was willing to take significant risks; NASA might need a trillion dollars to fly to Mars and back, but a private company could do it for much less. Falcon-9 is supposed to cost about $100,000,000 to put 32 tons into LEO, so you could launch a thousand ton spacecraft (most of which would be fuel) for about $3 billion... even if that ship costs $10 billion itself, that totals less than a quarter of what Gates is reportedly worth. And while 'the richest few people on the planet' is a small market for a tour company, over time that technology is only going to get cheaper.

      I agree it would be more popular in a ship full of space hookers though.

      P.S. The new slashdot with its random line breaks really sucks.

    4. Re:Pale red dot by Frangible · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but is that technology going to get cheaper? The fundamentals of rocket science haven't changed since the days of Sergei Korolev and Wernher von Braun. There's no Moore's law in effect here.

      Sure, they can buy seats on the Soyuz, which has been around forever and always been very economically efficient... or SpaceShipOne/Two which are X-15 / X-20 ripoffs (which are Me-263 and some German rocket bomber ripoffs...) anyway, the X-15 / X-20 were always relatively cheap, it's just that the rocket plane B52-launched design isn't capable of enough altitude to do anything practical except serve as a vomit comet. None of the cost structures of these things has significantly changed over time.

      There's some economy of scale, but it's mostly in R&D expense, not anything that any volume of space tourists is going to effect.

      Barring some major technological advancement, I don't see how space exploration can do anything but remain the purview of nation-states and alliances.

    5. Re:Pale red dot by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but is that technology going to get cheaper? The fundamentals of rocket science haven't changed since the days of Sergei Korolev and Wernher von Braun. There's no Moore's law in effect here.

      The fundamentals of flight haven't changed since the Wright Brothers and the cost of the aircraft has increased, but the cost of travel is much lower.

      To give an obvious example of where improvements will come from, the Falcon rockets are designed to be reusable; there's little point doing that if you fly twice a year, but there's a lot of point if you fly a thousand per year. Few people would be able to afford to fly across the Atlantic if the airliner could only make one trip.

      Similarly, having to launch a thousand ton spacecraft for every trip to Mars is extremely inefficient compared to launching something small that docks with an Earth/Mars cycler full of space hookers. But again only makes sense if you're using it a lot.

      Fundamentally the reason why space travel is so expensive is that we don't do it much, and the reason why we don't do it much is because it's so expensive. Somehow we need to break out of that trap.

    6. Re:Pale red dot by khallow · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but is that technology going to get cheaper?

      Sure, launch frequency is the great, big, unexploited economy of scale. Any currently operating space vehicle would be much cheaper per launch, if you doubled the number of launches.

      Cost of manufacture has dropped significantly over the decades too.

    7. Re:Pale red dot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sagan had the right idea, but I don't think there will ever be missions to Mars that us laymen are/were allowed to know about. Sagan and people like him most certainly don't rule the world..unfortunately

  8. Get your ass to Mars, the series by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    NASA launches a new reality series where three rednecks try to build a ship to go to Mars out of an old cement mixer and a surplus Russian boaster rocket. In the final episode we find out why mixing a 1,000 gallons of peroxide, liquid oxygen and AMPHO together is a bad idea.

    1. Re:Get your ass to Mars, the series by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Great. Now I can't get Andy Griffith out of my head. Thanks.

    2. Re:Get your ass to Mars, the series by Muad'Dave · · Score: 1

      ...AMPHO...

      Perhaps you mean ANFO - Ammonium Nitrate/Fuel Oil.

      Yet another Tiller's rule violation.

      --
      Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.
  9. What challenge? by countertrolling · · Score: 1

    Just put some rockets on the space station and fly it out there with some probes that can lift off

    --
    For justice, we must go to Don Corleone
    1. Re:What challenge? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      oh hell, why didn't anyone think of that?
      LOL
      It's not that easy, bro... that only works on video games.

  10. Challenges by Concerned+Onlooker · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "The engineering challenges those three companies face are immense"

    The bureaucratic challenges will be even more so.

    --
    http://www.rootstrikers.org/
  11. Big companies will design an expensive approach by cjonslashdot · · Score: 4, Insightful

    These big contractors will never come up with an efficient solution. It is against their interests. They will design some very capital intensive approach. Then they will bid on the contracts to build it.

    It will take a startup company to come up with a innovative and viable approach.

    1. Re:Big companies will design an expensive approach by houghi · · Score: 1

      They will design some very capital intensive approach.

      So their calculations was done by HARLIE

      (You will probably only get the reference if you read the book)

      --
      Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
    2. Re:Big companies will design an expensive approach by cjonslashdot · · Score: 2

      I am curious. Can you explain? Thanks!!

    3. Re:Big companies will design an expensive approach by houghi · · Score: 1

      Serious spoiler:

        If you intend to read the book, do not read on.

      Serious. Don't read on.

      HARLIE is a computer which must prove his own reason to exist. In doing so he creates an even bigger computer (Called the G.O.D. computer) that will answer all questions. However this computer will be so big and complex, it will need HARLIE to build it AND to operate it. So just as the companies that will invent a reason to justify their existence, so does HARLIE.

      --
      Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
    4. Re:Big companies will design an expensive approach by Late+Adopter · · Score: 1

      It's in their interest to come up with a solution that could feasibly be purchased. Too cheap and not enough profit, but too expensive and Congress doesn't pay for it.

    5. Re:Big companies will design an expensive approach by cjonslashdot · · Score: 1

      Yes. The sweet spot is the most that Congress will possibly fund.

    6. Re:Big companies will design an expensive approach by Frangible · · Score: 1

      A small start-up company hardly changes the fact that rocketry is very expensive, and going to other planets and returning is crazy complex. There's no cheap way to do it. The "big contractors" actually have skilled scientists, engineers, and experience... and bid against each other to win the contract. No one is stopping little venture capital dot-com start-ups from trying to compete in this process. It's just that rocket science is... well, rocket science. It's a lot different from programming a hit website and making an IPO.

    7. Re:Big companies will design an expensive approach by cjonslashdot · · Score: 1

      Yes, it is indeed complex. But I will point out that it took small startups to figure out how to create low cost launch vehicles. The big contractors just don't have that mindset. See this article about Elon Musk: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/aug/01/elon-musk-spacex-rocket-mars

      From that article:

      "[Musk] investigated the science behind rocket launching and concluded that there was no real reason why it was so expensive. He believed the space industry was dominated by inefficient government bodies. By starting afresh, and going back to basics, Musk believed getting into space could be done quickly and cheaply. He was right...SpaceX is getting into orbit for a fraction of the cost of the space shuttle programme...[SpaceX] wants to drive the costs down and improve reliability and make space travel something that is open to everyone. Only private business, Musk thinks, can do that. 'The fundamental barriers are improving reliability and reducing cost, and the government is not that good at either. Would you prefer to fly Virgin Atlantic or Soviet-era Aeroflot?' "

    8. Re:Big companies will design an expensive approach by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      But why do we need G.O.D.? And if we don't need G.O.D. we don't need HARLIE.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
  12. Immense?! by the_skywise · · Score: 1

    To paraphrase - "I think you underestimate their chances".

    From an engineering standpoint, the challenges are similar to the Apollo moon missions.

    What's new is size and weight for the extra storage capacity needed for fuel, food, oxygen, etc; and space for the extra living quarters.

    In fact, I'd say you could do it with 3 launches from Earth to put up a propulsion module, living quarters module (the "RV" section and the mars lander module.

    Assemble them in orbit like the Apollo missions did, go to Mars, drop the lander, return to Earth, jettison the RV and the propulsion module and splash down for landing.

    Granted there are other, new challenges, but we've got probably 3/4 of the challenges already solved.

    Well... except for the fact that we don't HAVE the heavy lift tech anymore...

    1. Re:Immense?! by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Well... except for the fact that we don't HAVE the heavy lift tech anymore...

      Heavy lift is a crazy boondoggle; there's very little market for it and as a consequence it ends up far more expensive than using multiple smaller launchers.

      The way to reduce costs is to increase flight rates so that reusability becomes worthwhile and viable, not to stick everything on top of a huge rocket that flies twice a year, costs billions of dollars every time, and destroys your entire multi-billion dollar spacecraft if it fails. That's particularly true for fuel, where you don't much care whether you're launching a hundred tons in one go or ten tons a time in ten flights.

    2. Re:Immense?! by Arlet · · Score: 1

      Mars also has a thin atmosphere, which creates some unique challenges. A rocket assisted landing is fairly easy in a vacuum, but a lot harder while flying supersonic through the atmosphere. On the other hand, the atmosphere is too thin for aerobraking with a heat shield or parachutes.

      What makes it even harder is that Mars is the only place to practice.

    3. Re:Immense?! by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      On the other hand, the atmosphere is too thin for aerobraking with a heat shield or parachutes.

      That'll be news to the probes that have landed there using aerobraking and parachutes.

      Ok, they needed either rockets or inflatable balloons for the final touchdown, but most of the braking was performed by the atmosphere. Similarly, you can use the atmosphere to perform much of the braking required to get into orbit, which further reduces fuel requirements.

    4. Re:Immense?! by Arlet · · Score: 1

      That'll be news to the probes that have landed there using aerobraking and parachutes

      Those were all very small and light, and able to withstand the considerable forces of surface impact. This method does not scale up to the size and mass required for a return rocket.

    5. Re:Immense?! by Frangible · · Score: 1

      Heavy lift is a crazy boondoggle

      Yeah, that Wernher von Braun... always concerned with profits and personally designing boondoggle after boondoggle.

      The way to reduce costs is to increase flight rates so that reusability becomes worthwhile and viable, not to stick everything on top of a huge rocket that flies twice a year, costs billions of dollars every time, and destroys your entire multi-billion dollar spacecraft if it fails.

      We had something like that, and it's going to cease to exist in June. It could carry quite a bit of cargo, but not enough for a lunar or martian mission. You're also going to leave stuff behind that's not reusable on any type of super-long distance space trip; "reusable" only really applies to stuff within Earth's atmosphere. You need big freaking rockets to get to Mars and back, and that's all there really is to it... throwing away your escape velocity is very inefficient, and you have to keep momentum going to slingshot.

    6. Re:Immense?! by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Yeah, that Wernher von Braun... always concerned with profits and personally designing boondoggle after boondoggle.

      Indeed. A large part of the problem with manned spaceflight is that people continue to follow von Braun's dreams even though experience has shown that he was wrong.

      We had something like that, and it's going to cease to exist in June. It could carry quite a bit of cargo, but not enough for a lunar or martian mission.

      The shuttle was at best refurbishable and required huge amounts of labour and lots of new hardware for each flight. Falcon 9 Heavy should cost about a tenth of the price of a shuttle launch while carrying the same payload, and that's even before they start recovering the stages for refurbishment.

    7. Re:Immense?! by BJ_Covert_Action · · Score: 1

      Well... except for the fact that we don't HAVE the heavy lift tech anymore.

      Yep, the Delta IV Heavy and Atlas V 541 vehicles don't really exist. They haven't launched any payloads ever. Neither of them has ever flown out of Vandenberg or the Cape....*facepalm*

      P.S. to be fair, the 541 really hasn't launched yet, but it is scheduled to this Summer.

  13. Please see the Case for Mars... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ...Robert Zubrin 1996 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Case_for_Mars for a decent affordable, credible, realistic and possible plan.
    Then, if anyone reading this knows Elon Musk, please send him a copy.

    1. Re:Please see the Case for Mars... by Nyeerrmm · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure Elon knows Zubrin. Its really a quite small community, and I've been to conferences where they are both there. And I'm pretty sure they agree on a lot of things, including the desire to extend a human presence to that planet.

      I'm not sure what you're getting at.

    2. Re:Please see the Case for Mars... by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Robert Zubrin 1996 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Case_for_Mars for a decent affordable, credible, realistic and possible plan.

      For sufficiently fuzzy values of "affordable", "credible", and "realistic" - sure. In the real world, not so much.
       
      Zubrin consistently treats things that exist as laboratory prototypes as if they were ready to be deployed off-the-shelf. He consistently treats questions that we don't even know enough about to quantify the known unknowns clearly as if they are long solved and well understood. Etc... etc...

    3. Re:Please see the Case for Mars... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Zubrin lives up the road from me. I can tell you that Zubrin would MUCH rather that elon did not have the book. The reason is that Zubrin worked at L-Mart and will continue to push that nightmare Constellation. In fact, I thought it interesting that Zubrin had little to say when Musk was talking about doing a Merlin 2/Falcon XX, yet, threw a fit when the MASSIVELY EXPENSIVE AND 30 years to develop Ares V was cancelled.

      One of the bigger reasons for the dislike is that Zubrin wants a 2 way mission. Musk is already pushing for ONE WAY MISSIONS, which zubrin hates. Yet, the high costs of return trips combined with the damage due to long trips, pretty much guarantees that we must make these one-way.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  14. betting that there's a planet left to return to... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    & whether or not the population will be surviving/thriving, or gone extinct due to excessive weaponization, selfishness etc...? believe it or not, a lot rests on our current decisions regarding our regard towards our fellow humans, as opposed to our worship of failed systems/fairytails. everything made by man fails. do the math. there remains a deal shattering component to the equation as yet not presented. our notion is that it has something to do with how we're either neglecting, or murdering many of the creators' innocents, which throws the whole recipe into a tailspin. see you on the other side of it? we'll walk there, thanks. we'd rather run out of time than witness what could happen if we fail each other now.

  15. we need a way to make fuel on mars better to plan by Joe+The+Dragon · · Score: 1

    we need a way to make fuel on mars better to plan for a one way or very long term trip to Mars and maybe just a shouter term cargo only return.

  16. So.... by brunes69 · · Score: 2

    ...all the tens of thousands of people that would be employed to make this happen... I guess none of they money spent by them would go back into the country? They would spend it all offshore right? Riiiiiight...

  17. Re:we need a way to make fuel on mars better to pl by Tumbleweed · · Score: 1

    Send some unmanned cargo & fuel-only runs out to Mars orbit to refuel the manned mission for the return trip. The problem is not the technology, it's the political will to fund it. When politicians are in charge of your budget, you wind up with decisions made by cowards.

  18. I know how do do it! by Wingsy · · Score: 1

    Why do we need a super heavy-lift vehicle to get there? Can't we put the pieces one-by-one into low earth orbit, then bolt em together and head off to Mars? And why are they thinking about landing a heavy ascent vehicle on the surface, all loaded with fuel? (80% of the ascent vehicle will need to be fuel) Why not land a few cans of gas on Mars so the astronauts can fuel up the ascent vehicle prior to liftoff? Would drastically cut the weight of the descent vehicle. And since I'm designing this Mars mission, I've got a solution to the long duration weightless problem. The transport vehicle is designed to come apart in the middle. After the main engine burn to get em on their way, they snap it apart, and tie a rope around the 2 pieces. Then start them orbiting each other. Presto, there's your gravity. Maintaining antenna alignment back to earth would be a bitch, so they have another small spacecraft with the radio dish that flies along nearby that's used as a repeater.

    --
    If I didn't have absolutely NOTHING to do, I wouldn't be here.
    1. Re:I know how do do it! by Nyeerrmm · · Score: 1

      Why even send the fuel? Build it from the environment once you get there. A phased array antenna could avoid the need for a de-spun bus on the vehicle as well.

      Of course, the really hard technical part (not to diminish the political and psychological challenges) is the landing on the surface. There is no 'best practice' for Mars EDL (Entry/Descent/Landing), and landing something big enough to hold people is very much an open problem.

  19. slingshot effect. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    they ll probably end up using Mars orbital rotation start the ship and thrusters to break free as well as directionality.

  20. Getting ahead of themselves by rudy_wayne · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Before they start working on how to get OFF of Mars they need to figure out how to get ON Mars. A couple of years ago I found this article (sorry, lost the original link).

    Getting Large Payloads to the Surface of Mars
    by Nancy Atkinson
    July 17th, 2007

    Some proponents of human missions to Mars say we have the technology today to send people to the Red Planet. But do we? Rob Manning of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory discusses the intricacies of entry, descent and landing and what needs to be done to make humans on Mars a reality.

    There’s no comfort in the statistics for missions to Mars. To date over 60% of the missions have failed. Even among those who have devoted their careers to the task, mention sending a human mission to land on the Red Planet, with payloads several factors larger than an unmanned spacecraft, and the trepidation grows even larger.

    Why? Nobody knows how to do it.

    Surprised? Most people are, says Rob Manning the Chief Engineer for the Mars Exploration Directorate and presently the only person who has led teams to land three robotic spacecraft successfully on the surface of Mars. "It turns out that most people aren’t aware of this problem and very few have worried about the details of how you get something very heavy safely to the surface of Mars," said Manning.

    He believes many people immediately come to the conclusion that landing humans on Mars should be easy. After all, humans have landed successfully on the Moon and we can land our human-carrying vehicles from space to Earth. And since Mars falls between the Earth and the Moon in size and atmosphere, it should be easy. "There’s the mindset that we should just be able to connect the dots in between," said Manning.

    The real problem is the combination of Mars’ atmosphere and the size of spacecraft needed for human missions. While the Apollo lunar lander weighed approximately 10 metric tons, a human mission to Mars will require three to six times that mass, given the restraints of staying on the planet for a year. Landing a payload that heavy on Mars is currently impossible, using our existing capabilities. "It’s this ugly, grey zone", said Manning, "There’s too much atmosphere on Mars to land heavy vehicles like we do on the moon, using propulsive technology and there’s too little atmosphere to land like we do on Earth. Until we come up with a whole new system, landing humans on Mars will be an ugly and scary proposition."

    In 2004 NASA organized a Road Mapping session to discuss the current capabilities and future problems of landing humans on Mars. Manning co-chaired this event and the major conclusion that came from the session was that no one has yet figured out how to safely get large masses from speeds of entry and orbit down to the surface of Mars.

    "We call it the Supersonic Transition Problem," said Manning. With our current capabilities, a large, heavy vehicle, streaking through Mars’ thin atmosphere only has about ninety seconds to slow from Mach 5 to under Mach 1, re-orient itself from a being a spacecraft to a lander, deploy parachutes to slow down further, then use thrusters to translate to the landing site and finally, gently touch down.

    When this problem is first presented to people, the most offered solution, Manning says, is to use airbags, since they have been so successful for the missions that he has been involved with; the Pathfinder rover, Sojourner and the two Mars Exploration Rovers (MER), Spirit and Opportunity.

    But engineers feel they have reached the capacity of airbags with MER. "It's not just the mass or the volume of the airbags, or the size of the airbags themselves, but it's the mass of the beast inside the airbags," Manning said. "This is about as big as we can take that particular design."

    In addition, an airbag landing subjects the payload to forces between 10-20 G’s. While robots can withstand such force, humans can’t. This doesn’t mean airbags will never be

    1. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by ckeo · · Score: 1

      Land on Phobos and repel down on ropes !! :D

    2. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just in case you want it in future:

      http://www.universetoday.com/7024/the-mars-landing-approach-getting-large-payloads-to-the-surface-of-the-red-planet/

    3. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      http://www.universetoday.com/7024/the-mars-landing-approach-getting-large-payloads-to-the-surface-of-the-red-planet/

    4. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by skywatcher2501 · · Score: 1

      Space elevators, why not? Maybe it is easier to use an approach with tethers..

    5. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by captain_sweatpants · · Score: 1

      Well the solution seems obvious:
      Step 1 - Invent self-assembling atmosphere generators
      Step 2 - Send self-assembling atmosphere generators to mars with airbags
      Step 3 - Generate atmosphere
      Step 4 - Shuttle to Mars
      Step 5 - ?????
      Step 6 - Profit!

    6. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So how did they get to the moon ( without atmosphere to slow down ) and back ?

    7. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by robertinventor · · Score: 1

      I'm glad it is so difficult - sadly - because hardly anyone seems to consider the consequences for Mars (and possibly Earth) of a human exploration. l love reading the stories in sci fi. Sounds great. But consider - Mars is so close to Earth that it is just about possible that many Earth organisms could live on Mars in various niche locations e.g. underground or in caves etc. And if earth life was introduced to Mars it would surely quickly terraform at least substantial areas - not to human breathable standard - but to a level where plants could grow etc. Sounds great in some ways - but what about the scientific interest of any mars micro-organisms that may be there already - they wouldn't stand a chance. Since it isn't teaming with life, can be pretty sure that at most only a few micro-organisms have been shared between the planets to date. Sending all the micro-organisms on a human spaceship there is much much more significant than e.g. sending a few high level animals to Australia that don't belong there. Surely would wipe out the entire Mars eco-system - whatever it is. Or if there is nothing there yet - what will the Earth spawned life evolve into given an entire planet and no competition - Darwinian test-tube type experiment on a grand scale when all we can do on Earth is to experiment with small quanitites of sterlised air in labs Surely huge chance of unexpected organisms evolving, possibly quite rapidly, and very possibly even dangerous or deleterious to human life. Lots of other disadvantages that could happen. And only one chance to get it right as you just can't reverse it - spores last for millions of years and the first Mars human mission would put millions, billions of new spores into the Mars atmosphere. Blown in the dust, you could never clean them all up again. Stick with robots (sadly) for now. Humans far too risky for Mars and science and potentially for Earth too.

    8. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by eriqk · · Score: 1

      Without an atmosphere, thrusters aren't an aerodynamical problem.

    9. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by Concerned+Onlooker · · Score: 1

      So, are you saying Phobos has negative gravity? Or perhaps you meant rappel?

      --
      http://www.rootstrikers.org/
    10. Re:Getting ahead of themselves by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > While the Apollo lunar lander weighed approximately 10 metric tons, a human mission to Mars will require three to six times that mass, given the restraints of staying on the planet for a year.

      So send the equipment, supplies and return fuel down first in an unmanned drop using proven technology.
      Then send a little rover to examine the landing zone and make sure your stuff is intact and landed in roughly the right place.
      THEN you can send down your people using one or more apollo-sized craft. Hell, I don't think I would even put any humans into EARTH orbit until I was sure the necessary survival & return supplies were all safely in place and waiting on martian dirt. Adding a robotic preparation phase significantly extends the length of the mission, but it would remove a hell of a lot of uncertainty.

      Is it just me or is this a no-brainer?

  21. nutshell by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    so basically the problem is: shooting something from florida into LEO, that can land back on earth and then get back into LEO (without refueling on earth).
    should be easy, if there's a ferry from earth to mars ...

  22. Being by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    *begin

  23. wormhole by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 1

    1. Launch craft to Mars
    2. Land on Mars
    3. Assemble pre-fab transfer gate
    4. Activate transfer gates on Earth and Mars
    5. Walk back to Earth
    6. Start selling access to gateway

    NASA could single handedly pay off the US debt this way

    Might want to budget a bit extra for the whole "develop gateway technology" portion of the schedule prior to launch

    1. Re:wormhole by LordNacho · · Score: 1

      What about the Casino/Tax haven at the other end? Surely there would be interest in that?

  24. nuclear ion engines by Dog's_Breakfast · · Score: 2

    I'm surprised that nobody has yet mentioned nuclear-powered spacecraft, which propels itself with an ion thruster: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion_thruster Such a spacecraft would not have a problem carrying enough fuel to make the return trip. I do need to point out that that space vehicle would not lift off from earth using its nuclear-ion thruster, nor would it land on Mars. It would have to first be propelled into earth orbit with conventional hydrogen-oxygen rockets. The nuke engine would then "go live" propelling it to Mars, where it would stay in orbit. It would drop a module down to Mars (which uses parachutes and the "beachball" technique to land safely). After collecting samples, it would lift off Mars using a conventional rocket and rendezvous with the nuclear-powered craft in orbit, which would return to earth (but stay in orbit). Conventional rockets would be used to recover the payload and take it back to earth. Think of this nuclear-powered rocket like a kind of miniaturized Starship Enterprise, though unmanned. It doesn't land or take off from a planet, it just ferries payloads between planets, never getting any closer than an orbit.

    1. Re:nuclear ion engines by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Such a spacecraft would not have a problem carrying enough fuel to make the return trip.

      It does have the problem of not having enough thrust to make the trip at all in a reasonable time frame.
       

      It would drop a module down to Mars (which uses parachutes and the "beachball" technique to land safely).

      Which is a great idea... except there isn't enough air for parachutes to slow a payload the size of the lander down enough, and airbags produce G and shock loads way above what a human can tolerate... Not that the latter really matters all that much, as with current materials airbags are only strong enough to handle a payload roughly .001% the weight of a manned lander or a mere 1% or so of an unmanned lander capable of returning to orbit with any significant amount of samples.
       

      After collecting samples, it would lift off Mars using a conventional rocket and rendezvous with the nuclear-powered craft in orbit, which would return to earth (but stay in orbit).

      Other than the fact that ion engines don't have the thrust to brake the spacecraft into Earth orbit - this sounds like a *great* idea.

    2. Re:nuclear ion engines by DSP-9 · · Score: 1

      There is another alternative. The manned (or unmanned) mission should land near the poles, where theres plenty of CO2 and water ice. Split the water into hydrogen and oxygen, you get rocket fuel. I know this is easier said than done, especially creating the extremely cold temperatures required to store them, but its a start.

  25. TerraForm First ? by ckeo · · Score: 1

    Toss a small comet at mars to thicken atmosphere.

    1. Re:TerraForm First ? by Baron_Yam · · Score: 1

      Err... how many comets?

      What's it going to do to Mars' climate - ie will it be a net improvement?

      If you're tossing mass at Mars, I'd start by partially emptying the asteroid belt to up it to Earth mass before I started on the Oort cloud for ice, though it might be easier to strip ice from elsewhere.

      Anyway, that kind of engineering requires so much more energy than setting up a some large tin cans with self-contained habitats it's not worth it outside a daydream.

    2. Re:TerraForm First ? by ckeo · · Score: 1

      "You do not have to look to the outer edges of the solar system, or even out beyond Neptune to observe a reservoir of comets. A bevy of the ice-containing bodies lies disguised as main-belt asteroids between Mars and Jupiter, claim astronomers from the University of Hawaii, US."

      http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn8887--clandestine-comets-found-in-main-asteroid-belt.html

      Well... scientists want to land on asteroids and comets and figure out how to change their course to protect earth, this would be a good way to experiment with that and kill two birds with one stone. A comet is a large ice cube so to steer it would require just a heater that is moveable.

  26. It's a long term, multi-stage plan... by Baron_Yam · · Score: 1

    1) Drop a reactor on Mars
    2) Drop a robot tractor on Mars
    3) Drop a fuel generator on Mars, use the tractor to pull it to the reactor
    4) Drop a greenhouse on Mars, use the tractor to pull it to the reactor
    5) Drop a crew habitat on Mars, use the tractor to pull it to the reactor
    6) Deliver humans to Mars once steps 1-5 have been done successfully

    Hopefully, we'll have some form of nuclear propulsion by the time we're ready for step 6, which would kind of ruin the need for step 3.

    For extra coin, you could get sponsors - the Duracell reactor, Apple iTractor, DuPont Fuel Generator, Monsanto Greenhouse, Hilton Habitat, and put a Nike swoosh on the crew rocket - "Just Do It".

  27. and by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    the engineering challenges those three companies face are immense.

    And the fees they will charge will be immenser!!!

  28. The solution is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The solution to Mars, should NASA ever get serious about Mars, in advanced technology such as reactionless drives (Emdrive for one). Reactionless drives are in its infancy but already the promise they show for control over current orbiting assets is enormous (they are simply better). What NASA needs to do now is to significantly raise the efficiency of these propulsion systems so that it works within a deeper gravity well, say here on Earth.

    1. Re:The solution is... by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Perpetual Motion Rockets? Yeah, Sure.

  29. Pretty obviously they couldn't be by sean.peters · · Score: 1

    Any more so than the Apollo CSM could be the same as the entire Saturn V configured for Apollo, or an F/A-18 could be the same as the USS Nimitz. The outbound craft is going to have to contain the inbound craft - by definition, they can't be the same thing.

  30. This is a broken window fallacy variant by sean.peters · · Score: 0

    Dude, sure, some of that money would get returned to the economy. The real question: what's the point of going to Mars? If it's to stimulate the economy, there are far, far more efficient ways to do that. If it's to gain science and technical knowledge, the next question becomes - is it worth it? The answer is also probably no, at least for human missions to Mars - we can accomplish almost all the same goals via robotic exploration. So realistically, this is pretty much a waste of money. If they limited the scope to robotic sample return, that might be a different story.

    1. Re:This is a broken window fallacy variant by tftp · · Score: 1

      we can accomplish almost all the same goals via robotic exploration

      And if you can't, it means you need to build better robots. You need robots for any work on Moon and Mars anyway - there are no cheap laborers there, and every minute outside (esp. on the Moon) is dangerous (radiation, micrometeorites, damage to spacesuits, etc.)

      However exciting a manned trip to Mars may be, it is certainly not justified at this point in time. Humans would be needed there only if we are pretty sure that there is sentient life on Mars and we need to establish contact. But a dead planet - which Mars largely is, as it seems - doesn't warrant sending people just to put boots on the ground. If a person chips a piece of rock away he will carry it to a robot, to do further analyses. If you need a more complex analysis, bring rocks back (you have to have this technology first anyway.)

      As an example, if you have some money allocated for Mars and you instead want to divert it to Earthly projects, you can start with things as simple as solar panels for everyone. They last a long time and produce a lot of power (I know because I have a PV setup; my heating is now free, with lots of kW*h to spare.) But there are many other things to do too - clean water, for one, or food, or housing, or a 1 Gbps Internet link for everyone :-)

      This is in fact *more important* than a trip to Mars. The human civilization is rotting from the inside; the level of education falls, the level of "I want $foo right now, waa!" is rising. Nobody wants to work, and nobody needs to work, as it seems. Ghettos keep growing, gangs keep growing. Those problems are killing us faster than Ebola; Mars is not even in the equation. We can fly to Mars, but how much good will it do us if the spacefarers don't have a planet to return to?

    2. Re:This is a broken window fallacy variant by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Actually, it is not the broken window fallacy. History has shown over and over that expansion into new areas returns money. BIG money. THat is how EU became large from an economic POV. We will certainly find new things on Mars that we never expected. Finally, by sending man out there, we preserve our species. The fact is, that we do not know why species has been wiped out over and over on Earth. But Mars (AND expansion into the oceans) should be seen as an attempt to preserve ourselves.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    3. Re:This is a broken window fallacy variant by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      One way trips don't preserve anything. There is no reason to send people, there is nothing that people can do on the surface that robots can't (you can make and send a *lot* of robotic missions for the price of one human mission). The argument that we should do because all these people will get jobs is a broken window fallacy... You only have to look at the pork being held over from the shuttle program to see that a bulk of NASA "missions" is nothing but government welfare for engineers.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    4. Re:This is a broken window fallacy variant by NewsWatcher · · Score: 1

      History has shown over and over that expansion into new areas returns money. BIG money. THat is how EU became large from an economic POV.

      I think you will find that the EU became large from an ecomomic POV because it amalgamated some of the world's largest individual economies, such as Germany's Italy's and France's.

      There isn't a lot Mars will add to earth's GDP (although that creepy face may indicate otherwise) in the short, or even medium term, even if we colonise it.

      --
      If the pattern goes 9am, 10am, 11am, why isn't noon 12am?
    5. Re:This is a broken window fallacy variant by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      I think that you will find that many in the world refer to EU as being =~ to Europe. IOW, the build up of Europe from an economic pov took place because of the expansion around the world. That is most true of UK.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    6. Re:This is a broken window fallacy variant by brunes69 · · Score: 1

      The innovations needed to make people be able to survive on Mars would very likely be applicable on Earth. I am talking about innovations in recycling efficiency, re-use of materials, etc.

  31. Oh Jesus, not this again by sean.peters · · Score: 1

    The idea of a self-sustaining Martian colony is beyond retarded. It costs something like a million dollars/kg to get stuff to Mars. To get a colony going would require millions of kilograms of stuff. Then anything you manufactured there would have to be transported back to earth to be sold - again with transport costs $1M/kg (or more, as building return rockets on Mars would no doubt be exceedingly expensive). And Mars is made of the same stuff as earth - silicates, iron, etc. What the hell could you possibly produce and sell at a profit? And without any kind of profit potential, this is a non-starter. No one is going to lay out this much money just because off-world colonies are cool.

    And regarding the "countless volunteers" willing to go on a one-way trip to Mars? Sure. How many of them are qualified (physically and occupationally) to do anything useful on Mars? And of that rather small subset - how many are psychologically stable enough not to lose their shit on a permanent mission to another planet? Willing. Qualified. Mentally stable. You can pick two.

    1. Re:Oh Jesus, not this again by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      What the hell could [a colony] possibly produce and sell at a profit?

      Reality shows

  32. In the military... by sean.peters · · Score: 1

    ... we used to call this sort of thing a self-licking ice cream cone. Dude, I hate to break this to you (are you sitting down) - there are no people on Mars. And we could save ourselves a fuck-ton of money by not shipping them there.

  33. *facepalm by sean.peters · · Score: 0

    Dude, I can't believe I'm even reading this. Here's a hint: all those benefits - the research centers with their important discoveries, etc... we don't need to fly to fucking Mars to do that! In fact, if you plowed all the money you'd be wasting trying to get this stuff going on Mars into our (already existing) research centers on earth, you'd almost certainly make the discoveries quicker and more cheaply!

    Another hint: when you're talking about spending literally trillions of dollars of other people's money - yeah, you really need an economic reason for everything. Because they're going to be kind of mad if you just spend it on things because they're cool.

  34. Not so effectively by sean.peters · · Score: 0

    Look, folks - if your justification for a Mars mission is economic stimulus, you've already lost. First of all, no one wants to do stimulus. And if you did, there are far more efficient ways to do it - most effective in the short term is just giving money to poor people, who immediately spend it all. Most effective in the long term is infrastructure improvements. Going to Mars? Some substantial portion of your investment is turned into a big freakin' rocket, which gets used once and then burns up. Sure, there's some stimulus - you've put money in some people's pockets, stimulated some increase in demand for educated people, there will be some tech spinoffs, etc. But Mars missions as a stimulus are never going to be effective as stimulus as a stimulus. So you need to justify a Mars mission in terms of its own direct benefits, and it turns out that's kind of hard to do.

    1. Re:Not so effectively by NEDHead · · Score: 1

      Point was regarding the earlier comment suggesting the money just disappears. Clearly spending the same dollars on something with immediate and ongoing 'quality of life' benefits is a better short term stimulus.

      On the other hand, when the big rock hits, Mars may look pretty enticing.

    2. Re:Not so effectively by one+cup+of+coffee · · Score: 1

      Yeah, because going to Mars will be a horrendous wast of money just like the Louisiana Purchase and "Seward's Folly" aka Alaska.

  35. Oh, right by sean.peters · · Score: 1

    It costs at least a million dollars/kg to get stuff to Mars. And the stuff they'd need would include, at a minimum, some kind of power generation system (nuclear or solar), lighting, heat, water purification equipment, tools & materials needed to do farming, seeds, startup food, air and water for themselves, clothing, tools & materials to build shelters, at least minimal furniture, minimal domestic implements (spoons, dishes, etc), comm and IT gear (presumably they'll need to phone home to earth periodically) bulk quantities of water (or equipment to mine water from Martian soils) for irrigating crops, some sort of capital equipment if they're to manufacture anything (probably heavy)... Are you putting this on your Visa card? Because I'm not keen on shelling out the bucks for it.

    1. Re:Oh, right by khallow · · Score: 1

      It costs at least a million dollars/kg to get stuff to Mars. And the stuff they'd need would include, at a minimum, some kind of power generation system (nuclear or solar), lighting, heat, water purification equipment, tools & materials needed to do farming, seeds, startup food, air and water for themselves, clothing, tools & materials to build shelters, at least minimal furniture, minimal domestic implements (spoons, dishes, etc), comm and IT gear (presumably they'll need to phone home to earth periodically) bulk quantities of water (or equipment to mine water from Martian soils) for irrigating crops, some sort of capital equipment if they're to manufacture anything (probably heavy)... Are you putting this on your Visa card? Because I'm not keen on shelling out the bucks for it.

      A few things to note. First, that's mass. Sure, we could pay eye-popping sums of money or we could first work on making the trip cheaper (which is currently what's going on). Second, a good portion of that list can be made after they reach Mars.

      Third, even now prices aren't a million dollars per kg. For example, the Mars Exploration Rovers had build and launch costs that added up to roughly a million dollars per kg, but this included a lot of stuff optimized to a ridiculous extreme including an elaborate landing system (heat shield, retrorockets, a tether system that drops the rover below the rocket platform). A manned mission needs a lot of extra mass and power (radiation shielding and power for life supporter, perhaps propulsion, and other man-oriented systems) and less cutting edge robotics (per unit of mass) so there's less need for such a high degree of optimization.

      Does mean it's a good idea to put such missions on the public tab, but by the time anyone gets around to doing this, they'll have the costs under control and a means to get most of the mass they need from the Martian environment rather than being dragged from Earth.

    2. Re:Oh, right by sean.peters · · Score: 1

      A few things to note. First, that's mass. Sure, we could pay eye-popping sums of money or we could first work on making the trip cheaper (which is currently what's going on). Second, a good portion of that list can be made after they reach Mars.

      First, If there's anything "going on" that shows any promise of significantly reducing costs to get to Mars, I'm not aware of it. Got a link? Second, if they're going to make the stuff they need on Mars, then they're going to need the equipment it would take to do that. Water purifiers. Power generation. Electrolyzers for oxygen. CO2 scrubbers. Bulldozers, etc, to build stuff. Mining and refining equipment (sure, Mars is very rich in... hematite. Which needs to be converted to steel to be useful). Capital equipment to make stuff. Lots and lots of people to run all that stuff (or robots, but then you have to, you know, send the robots). All of that is very, very heavy.

      Third, even now prices aren't a million dollars per kg. For example, the Mars Exploration Rovers had build and launch costs that added up to roughly a million dollars per kg, but this included a lot of stuff optimized to a ridiculous extreme including an elaborate landing system (heat shield, retrorockets, a tether system that drops the rover below the rocket platform).

      Ok, so your argument is that ROBOTS need this really elaborate landing system, but for humans, any old thing will do. Well, who can argue with that? The point being that, yeah, landing squishy bags of water and bone on another planet is going to require pretty ridiculous optimization too. It won't look the same, but it'll be pretty ridiculous(ly expensive) just the same.

      but by the time anyone gets around to doing this, they'll have the costs under control and a means to get most of the mass they need from the Martian environment rather than being dragged from Earth.

      Well, I can agree with this much. It's just that I think that it's going to be a long, long time (maybe never) before we get to that point.

    3. Re:Oh, right by khallow · · Score: 1

      First, If there's anything "going on" that shows any promise of significantly reducing costs to get to Mars, I'm not aware of it.

      Here and here.

      Ok, so your argument is that ROBOTS need this really elaborate landing system, but for humans, any old thing will do.

      Well, humans don't need $1 million per kg water, air, or food.

      The point being that, yeah, landing squishy bags of water and bone on another planet is going to require pretty ridiculous optimization too.

      Heat shield and retrorockets. It's a simpler system. And we're already developing the tools for that as well (landers from Armadillo Aerospace and Masten Space Systems).

      but by the time anyone gets around to doing this, they'll have the costs under control and a means to get most of the mass they need from the Martian environment rather than being dragged from Earth.

      Well, I can agree with this much. It's just that I think that it's going to be a long, long time (maybe never) before we get to that point.

      It's not all that unlikely that you are right. We could wipe ourselves out in the next few decades or develop a stagnant global society that precludes progress. But with continued technology development over decades, I don't see any outcome other than eventual success.

  36. This is the key assumption by sean.peters · · Score: 1

    Your analogy isn't really getting the job done for you. Sure, the price of air travel has gone down - but it's still not cheap. It's still much, much cheaper, for example, to get something shipped UPS ground than UPS overnight. And for bulk quantities of stuff, forget it. Air's not an option for resupplying your coal fired power plant, for example.

    The situation is even worse with respect to space. Prices aren't really coming down at all, and there really aren't any technological breakthroughs on the horizon as far as anyone can tell. Economies of scale, if you can achieve them, will only get you so far. You're going to need something that makes you some money "out there", and so far, no one has any particularly plausible ideas. The terrestrial planets are all made of the same stuff earth is, and no matter how cheap you make space travel, it's never going to be so cheap that mining is more economically done in space. Asteroids are the same deal. Comets: slushballs. Gas giants: hard to even imagine what you could recover or how to do it. And if you can't figure out what can be economically recovered, you probably can't even get the economy of scale.

    Somehow we need to break out of that trap

    Ok, I'll bite. Why do we need to? We've already established that there's no money in it. Carl Sagan seems to be casting about for a reason to do it in the quote. So why? This is really the heart of the matter. You can't just wave your hands and say "we need to get into space... just because". Someone needs to identify the actual benefits - and so far, they seem pretty slim.

    1. Re:This is the key assumption by melchoir55 · · Score: 1

      Your analogy isn't really getting the job done for you. Sure, the price of air travel has gone down - but it's still not cheap. It's still much, much cheaper, for example, to get something shipped UPS ground than UPS overnight. And for bulk quantities of stuff, forget it. Air's not an option for resupplying your coal fired power plant, for example.

      The situation is even worse with respect to space. Prices aren't really coming down at all, and there really aren't any technological breakthroughs on the horizon as far as anyone can tell. Economies of scale, if you can achieve them, will only get you so far. You're going to need something that makes you some money "out there", and so far, no one has any particularly plausible ideas. The terrestrial planets are all made of the same stuff earth is, and no matter how cheap you make space travel, it's never going to be so cheap that mining is more economically done in space. Asteroids are the same deal. Comets: slushballs. Gas giants: hard to even imagine what you could recover or how to do it. And if you can't figure out what can be economically recovered, you probably can't even get the economy of scale.

      Somehow we need to break out of that trap

      Ok, I'll bite. Why do we need to? We've already established that there's no money in it. Carl Sagan seems to be casting about for a reason to do it in the quote. So why? This is really the heart of the matter. You can't just wave your hands and say "we need to get into space... just because". Someone needs to identify the actual benefits - and so far, they seem pretty slim.

      The actual benefit of advancing space-faring technology is the possibility that humans may one day establish a self-sustaining off-world colony. This is important, to some of us, because it makes extinction much less likely.

      If you do not care about the extinction of humanity, then I understand not giving a damn about space travel. If you do care, space travel should be pretty important to you.

  37. Not to mention the fact by sean.peters · · Score: 1

    That it completely destroys one of the main reasons to go to Mars in the first place - for the science. Oh, you were interested in knowing whether life ever existed on Mars? Sorry, we just resurfaced the planet.

    Also, there's the fact that Mars has no magnetic field, whose absence allowed the solar wind to strip the planet of most of its atmosphere in the first place. So unless you want to keep dropping comets on Mars, you'll be back where you started.

    And yeah, there's also the energy thing. And the fact that we don't really know how to steer comets even if we had sufficient energy. Etc, etc. Probably safe to say we won't be terraforming first.

    1. Re:Not to mention the fact by DSP-9 · · Score: 1

      We could hire an interplanetary hulk. On a more serious note, cant we use nuclear explosions to guide them?However, the magnetic field issue is a serious one. Unless we find a way around it, all our terraforming, comet dropping, will be undone.

  38. Just a note... by MJMullinII · · Score: 1

    SpaceX has specifically said it's Dragon Spacecraft has a heat shield designed to withstand the increased speed that would exist from a return trip from Mars.

    "The ablator, called PICA-X for short, was tested inside an arc jet laboratory at NASA's Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, Calif.

    "It's actually the most powerful stuff known to man. Dragon is capable of re-entering from a lunar velocity, or even a Mars velocity with the heat shield that it has," Musk said.

    http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/002/100716firststage/

    --
    "Don't be a martyr -- BE THE ONE WHO GOT AWAY!"
  39. NASA is not as smart as you think by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Look getting to Mars is a problem due to Radiation. I rather not comment on the International Space Station as that will just make me flame. You have little or no chance for a human to go there, probably for the next 200 years.I would love to comment on the Russian Space program and technology, but all I can say NASA is kissing Russia's arse.

  40. The ferry by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    should be nuclear. Seriously. We need to develop a small nuclear ferry for sending goods between earth and mars. Building a prototype for moving small samples and cargo around would be worth it.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:The ferry by DSP-9 · · Score: 1

      This seems better - Ion Drive http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion_drive

    2. Re:The ferry by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      How do you provide electricity to power it? Nuclear. And what approach will that require? Basically some form of a thermo system. That means that we have to dump the waste heat, which in space can ONLY be radiated away. Considering the large and HEAVY infrastructure required for radiators, it would not work.

      OTH, a nerva WILL work. And it has the advantage that you add a small power plant to it that will provide power just for the spacecraft.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  41. WHich is the wrong way by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    I used to be a big fan of VASIMR. That is until you start to look how to generate electricity for it. Solar will not cut it, except for a real slow cargo system. For humans, we need to move fast. It will require a nuke reactor. Assume that we do not have DIRECT generation of fusion to electrons developed in the next 10 years. That means that we are left with fission thermal system. Not a problem. Right?
    WRONG. The nuke generates the heat which can create steam, and drive a turbine. BUT, you have to dump the heat to cool the steam (or what ever your working fluid is, probably ammonia). On earth, we just dump to the environment. We have matter all around us to accept that heat. BUT in space, you do not have it. Instead, you have to radiate it away. That would take loads of radiators. And that will take a structure to support it. That structure will be HEAVY. All of that means that ION will NOT WORK FOR HUMAN TRANSPORT

    OTH, a simple nuke engine WILL WORK. A reactor is used to heat nothing by hydrogen. This is what nerva is about. We need to restart that up all over again. In addition, we need to restart breeder reactors in the west esp. in America. Amazingly, we have loads of 'waste', that is ideal for this. Heck, if we are so afraid of this, we could build a small breeder for use in space. Put it at L0, and then use that to re-fuel a ferry engine.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:WHich is the wrong way by Muad'Dave · · Score: 1

      Projects NERVA and Rover showed that nuclear-powered spaceflight was not only possible but practical. I quote: "NERVA demonstrated that nuclear thermal rocket engines were a feasible and reliable tool for space exploration, and at the end of 1968 SNPO certified that the latest NERVA engine, the NRX/XE, met the requirements for a manned Mars mission."

      --
      Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.
  42. Why they don't build a mothership, it's beyond me. by master_p · · Score: 1

    Build a mothership in space, one that cannot land on Earth, equip it with nuclear reactors and a project-orion propulsion system, and then you have affordable space travel to any planet in our solar system.

    Then Mars becomes simply a case of having the right vehicle on the mothership.

  43. Rockwell? by elkto · · Score: 1

    Is the exclusion of the existing contractor Boeing (Rockwell) indication that Alliant Techsystems, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are at the core of the bureaucratic problem or at least pointing towards it?

    1. Re:Rockwell? by underlord_999 · · Score: 1


      Speaking of Rockwell, why not retrofit our favorite Space Shuttle Orbiter?

      Well then I have a plan!

      Prerequisites:

      1) Figure out a way to get a 2ndary external tank (ET) still full of LOX + LH2 into Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Keep it In the shade of something so the fuel components stay cryogenic.
      2) Figure out a process to re-attach the shuttle to the 2ndary ET in orbit via spacewalk
      3) Figure out a process and system enhancements to restart the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs) in vacuum
      4) Seal the shuttle orbiter crew module better to support a long-duration trip (less Atmosphere loss)
      5) Put additional H2 + O2 fuel cells in the cargo bay and plumb them into the existing fuel cells
      6) Put small lander or environmental module in the other half of the cargo bay. This will provide shielding and habitat for Long Duration Trips
      -- 2 & 3 are problems that would require some significant investigation but are not impossible
      -- Shuttle can haul 56,000 lbs to LEO, so 5&6 shouldn't be an issue. Fuel cells can provide water, power and O2

      Action Plan:
      1) Get Shuttle to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) via normal launch
      2) Attach 2ndary ET to Shuttle via a docking process.
      3) Re-Fire the SSME's using the fuel in the newly attached 2ndary ET
      4) Go study nearby celestial body of interest (moon, mars, asteroid)
      5) Return to Earth and land like a champion space plane.

      What do you get from all this:
      1) A proven vehicle for launch, orbital maneuvering, and landing
      2) Known system for life support for at least 30 days + extended duration from additional fuel cells.
      3) Existing ground preparation facilities and processes to make this happen within 2-3 years after the prequesites are solved.

      Otherwise we're probably looking at 15-20 years before a manned vehicle orbits Mars, given testing, rampup and other time constraints for an entirely new system.

  44. The engineering challenges ... are immense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Fortunately there is an immense pool of taxpayer's money to fund this 'immense' challenge.

  45. What about Warner Brothers? by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

    Couldn't NASA just rent the Martian Maggot for the round trip? Does Marvin have exclusive rights to the vehicle?

    --
    Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  46. Law which forces the government to use crooks? by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 1

    Seriously, the choices are "Alliant Techsystems, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman" ?

    Is there a law which forces the government to use companies with extensive track records of lying like hell on their bids to get the contracts, then creating extensive delays and budget overruns causing later administrations to cancel the projects?

    How about a crazy idea of "we'll start by providing a $1 million grant to any company that meets the minimum requirements of having actually put something in space in order to get the ball rolling and get a list of tasks laid out.

    We'll pay to launch your designs into space to test them and start debugging the problems.

    For each task which is clearly accomplished, we'll pay for the task achieved.

    You have three chances to screw up. We'll launch your stuff, but if it doesn't work, we will lose trust in you and you're on your own. You can deliver a finished functional product on your own dime at that point, but we're not paying you to screw up over and over again.

    The goal is, put something on mars, then get 10 human scale mannequins to mars and then back again with life support functioning at all times.

    Additionally, the cost of the unit CAN NOT exceed X dollars. You have to get there and back again, not including the cost of the initial launch or vehicle recovery from orbit for $200 million or less. If you can't do it for that much, then you're out.

    Altogether, if 3 companies manage to reach the finish line on this one, it probably will still cost the U.S. government less than $5 billion including the launches and such.

    When you're using mannequins, you don't have to get it right on the first try. What is important is, when you finally do it, you do get it right. I don't think I would even consider stepping foot on a rocket made by any of the three companies contracted for this task.

  47. Unless by DrYak · · Score: 1

    The outbound craft is going to have to contain the inbound craft - by definition, they can't be the same thing.

    Unless the outbound craft relies on separate stuff it finds on Mars' surface. Like component dropped by previous trips. So this trip's inbound craft doesn't have to dedicate a so big fraction of its payload to stuff that will only be sent there to be brought back.

    --
    "Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
  48. Shuttle Action Plan - Solar System, here we come! by elkto · · Score: 1

    Do I detect an Engineer? :-)

    While your plan has large issues, it is MUCH better than anything I have seen lately.
    Just thinking out loud here:
    We could use existing heavy lift bird to get a refueled tank to LEO, but it (the tank) would be a very different monster than the gravity fed one that exists today.
    The mount points would have to change, and jigs designed that could be used in orbit to align the mount points up would be a new Engineering project.

    On the upside, even though the nozzle geometry of the existing liquid rockets would not probably be optimum for operation in a vacuum, we do not need much energy to get things done as we already are in space.

    Heck as the whole platform would be already in orbit, a tank with anything close to the amount of fuel as the original could be viewed as wretched excess.

    All in all, I find your idea AWESOME! The more I think about it, the more I like it.

  49. Re:Shuttle Action Plan - Solar System, here we com by underlord_999 · · Score: 1

    Thanks! :)

    I'm not a structural engineer or mechanical engineer by profession, but my father was an aeronautical engineer at North American Rockwell for about 33 years, working mostly out of the Downey facility. He was responsible for structural designs of the Orbiter crew section (flight deck / mid-deck -- structures forward of the cargo bay for those not familiar) and also the structural designs of the Apollo command / service modules going back to the 1960s. My older brother also worked at Rocketdyne for a while on the SSMEs, so I grew up with the Space Shuttle and Apollo being talked about quite often at the dinner table :)

    I was thinking the same thing about using an existing heavy lift vehicle to get a tank to LEO. I agree a different breed of tank-design would be needed to keep the LOX and LH2 feeding properly in the microgravity. Maybe a sort of variable-volume fuel tank could be utilized.

    I guess the next question is how to get these ideas in front of congress or those with some research dollars to fund a prototype before our grand vehicles are only museum pieces.