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Groupon Could Challenge Google's Record IPO

jbrodkin writes "Months after spurning Google's $6 billion takeover bid, Groupon may topple Google's IPO record with an initial public offering worth $25 billion. Google went public in 2004 with a $24.6 billion valuation and Groupon seems to be on the verge of an IPO worth even more, Dow Jones VentureSource says. Even if Groupon doesn't break Google's record, it seems likely to become only the fifth venture-backed company to achieve a $10 billion valuation at the time of its IPO."

27 of 245 comments (clear)

  1. Groupon by viablos · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Groupon has a great business idea, AND it's mainly targeted to girls and women who also spend a lot for beauty things. They make shitloads of money as well as does the partner companies and their users. Win-win-win.

    1. Re:Groupon by MetalliQaZ · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Actually users SPEND money. When advertisers say that you "save" money by taking advantage of a deal, they are altering reality. Saving money is the opposite of buying.

      Still, when used responsibly, it IS a win-win-win. I have used it to great effect.

      -d

      --
      "Here Lies Philip J. Fry, named for his uncle, to carry on his spirit"
    2. Re:Groupon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      According to the site, Groupon users have saved about $1.5 billion. With many offers being half price, Groupon's total turnover ever would also be about $1.5 billion. How is a company with a $1.5 billion all-time turnover worth $25 billion? Count me out.

    3. Re:Groupon by garcia · · Score: 2

      I see them as targeting restaurants mainly and generally screwing those businesses over when they "advertise" for them.

      Groupon exists to advertise for itself. Its userbase is loyal to Groupon, not the businesses advertised. When that userbase is exhausted (and it will be) it will become junk.

    4. Re:Groupon by Cyberllama · · Score: 2

      I concur. I don't get this at all. I thought groupon was nuts not to take Google's offer, but this -- this is madness. They have a larger user base for sure, but their current business model does not support this valuation.

    5. Re:Groupon by SomeJoel · · Score: 2

      If you are buying something you need, like money, and the advertiser gives you 50% off, then you are indeed saving money.

      That's true. I spend at least half my income on money. But I never buy it at a discount store, because the quality just isn't there.

      --
      <Complete your profile by adding a signature!>
    6. Re:Groupon by russotto · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Um, if you "buy" a house and it costs, say, 200k with 40k down and the rest mortgaged, you have a 200k asset and a 160k to pay off. So you have a 40k asset right? No.

      You initially have a 200k asset and a 160k liability.

      Over 25-30 years it'll cost you around 320k to pay off that 160k, or some other multiple of 160k depending on how fast you pay it off, what the terms of the mortgage is and the interest rate etc. etc.

      Sure, but you don't count future liabilities against current assets.

    7. Re:Groupon by Surt · · Score: 2

      If I have a house that is salable for 200K, with 40k down, 160 mortgage, I can sell and walk away with 40K. To call that a 160K debt and freak out about how huge that is is ridiculous. Asset backed debts have to be discounted by the equity in any sane accounting system.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    8. Re:Groupon by rtb61 · · Score: 2

      The point is one has an impact on valuation and the other does not and, it is very deceitful to imply that revenue does.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  2. Welcome to 1999 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I bet the stock is at 5 bucks in 3 years.

    1. Re:Welcome to 1999 by MetalliQaZ · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I wouldn't write Groupon off as a bubble stock. They actually make money, which means they can be legitimately valued. The hysteria in 1999 was in companies that had no proven revenue stream whatsoever.

      --
      "Here Lies Philip J. Fry, named for his uncle, to carry on his spirit"
    2. Re:Welcome to 1999 by Surt · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The pricing is bubble, though. They're getting valued at 20X gross. That's a factor of 5 off normal.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    3. Re:Welcome to 1999 by jonbryce · · Score: 2

      Companies like Amazon, ARM Holdings, Microsoft and so on made money and could be legitimately valued. They are all very solid companies that are still around but none of them have got back to their 1999 valuations because those valuations were just way too high.

      As far as I'm aware, the only tech company that is worth more now than back then is Apple, which was on its knees at the time, and has since recovered.

  3. Trying to Blow Up a New Bubble by MarkvW · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Wall St. can't keep itself from trying to blow up investment bubbles.
    There's a sucker born every minute (and then the taxpayers bail the investment banks out).

  4. Can someone explain the appeal here? by gad_zuki! · · Score: 2

    I see a lot of useless coupons and services when I visit. Some "coupons" require me to buy in. Compared to deal sites like Woot or dealcatcher, I'm not seeing the allure. Typically, most of the "deals" are things like salons and jewerly/makeup which makes me think this is mostly a service for women.

    1. Re:Can someone explain the appeal here? by oh-dark-thirty · · Score: 3, Informative

      There are also a good number of restaurant coupons, at least in my area. I've used a couple and have been very pleased. If I like the place I'll be back, otherwise I'm not out the full boat for trying it.

    2. Re:Can someone explain the appeal here? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful
      You really don't understand it then.

      All of the coupons require you to buy in. They aren't coupons at all but rather reduced price gift certificates (with short expiration dates).

      They probably make good money on non-redemptions too.

  5. How is it worth anything? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Groupon makes a lot of money. Groupon also has a massive amount of debt. They secured about a billion dollars in funding during a recent 'investment round'.

    We are talking about a billion dollars in funding to run a website that requires no novel technology, has no valuable intellectual property, and doesn't have much of a competitive advantage. There isn't anything stopping other companies and people from creating more Groupon clones (as is obviously evidenced by competitors like LivingSocial and Google's upcoming daily deals site).

    The VCs must be really desperate for a success story, considering all the 'most innovative companies' coming out of silicon valley have no business model. They want to make money off of one of the pseudo-profitable organizations while they can. Welcome to doctom bubble 2.0.

    1. Re:How is it worth anything? by sycorob · · Score: 2

      Just because you have examples of several companies that are being valued for ridiculous amounts of money, doesn't mean they're not over-valued. Twitter is a great example - a company that has no revenue stream whatsoever, and no real plans to create one, and is valued in the billions. Maybe they'll get lucky and stumble accross a business plan and I'll look stupid, but right now I don't see it.

      Groupon at least generates revenue, but the fact that they have to keep raising money is strange to me. I hope they're just trying to grow faster than they would organically. At least what Google does is really hard - a nuanced algorithm that they have to constantly tweak to fight the spammers, indexing millions of websites pretty much constantly, running on home-built software on thousands of servers accross the world. It's hard to duplicate that. Groupon has a website with a deal on it, and an email list. When the deal is done they email a spreadsheet of customers to the company. When they first did a national deal (GAP Clothing) their servers went down in flames. How long would it take 10 smart guys to recreate 90% of that business? What's the $25B for? The name?

      Overall, it just feels like a bubble. The rest of the economy kind of sucks, and the investors are flush with cash that they don't know what to do with, and think Groupon is the "next big thing." I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out in the long term.

    2. Re:How is it worth anything? by sycorob · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Auctions need an economy of scale to work at all, though. If there aren't people selling there, there's no point going there to buy. If nobody's buying anything, there's no point listing it for sale there. GrouponClone needs enough people to sell, say, 100 coupons to start, and then you can grow from there. You could just run it a little leaner, and charge the restaurant slight less. It's really easy to copy. In some areas of the country, like New York, LivingSocial has way more mindshare than Groupon does, and they started later.

      There are probably hundreds of developers and business people out there that just heard about this potential IPO and said "how hard can it be to make that?" Groupon should cash in now, before they get their lunch eaten by 1000 me-too competitors.

  6. Off topic-ish by Anrego · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Am I the only one, or do all the groupon advertisements put anyone else off?

    I love the concept of groupon it’s really quite brilliant but for some reason all their ads and even their name totally puts me off. They feature food I like, but it doesn’t look appetising for some reason I can’t put my finger on. Also phrasing like “hot dang” appears to have a negative effect on me.

    This isn’t meant to be a troll or anything, I’m legitimately curious. I know I'm not the coupon type, but it seems weird that they put me off so completely.

  7. This is what we value in this country by cosm · · Score: 5, Interesting

    This is what we value in this country. Companies that spam coupons for the masses to buy more shit they don't need. So Wall St. intends on pumping 25 billion into a company that doesn't actually even manufacturer anything. A company whose only value is that it offers discounts to other companies! So in ten years, is their going to be a gang-groupon.com, that groupon pays to send out links to its own coupon links? The service based slave wage economy of the future is going to be quite sad indeed.

    --
    'We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.' RPF
  8. Not trying to play down the significance but... by wizeman · · Score: 4, Informative

    ... according to one inflation calculator, the $24.6 billion of Google's IPO in 2004 is worth $28.82 billion in 2011 dollars.

  9. Re:Wait by WrongSizeGlass · · Score: 2

    How is this company even worth $12 billion? Seriously, even first post at half off coupons aren't worth that.

    It's not worth the money. We'll just have to wait for a Groupon link to the 'IPO Deal' where we can get 10 shares for the price of 4 if we buy them the day after tomorrow.

  10. They have some really stellar deals by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 2

    Now if it is on stuff that doesn't interest you, well then don't bother. Can't say I use it much myself. However the point is that if you see a deal you like, you buy in. You then get a large reduction in the cost, often 50%. That can be very worth it.

  11. Why the tipping point? by nlawalker · · Score: 2

    Why does Groupon retain the "tipping point" for all their deals? My understanding is that Groupon is the second or third iteration in a series that was based on this idea, and I suppose it was interesting when they were still a startup, no one had heard of them and businesses wanted a little insurance on their investment. But now that they're big, I don't see how it's still relevant. Since they started getting big press, has there been a single Groupon in any market that has failed to hit the tipping point?

    Today's deal in Seattle tipped at 100 before 7AM and there are currently over 3000 purchases, with about 50 taking place just within the span of me writing this post. If anything, it seems like the right move now would be to emphasize purchasing before selling out, a la woot.

    Part of Groupon's value is that they help businesses plan deals and write excellent and differentiating copy to sell them, and they do a good job of it, so I don't see why they still have the tipping point mechanic. Does anyone even look at it when they evaluate a deal?

  12. in my experience by BitterAndDrunk · · Score: 2
    Groupon is a death knell for a restaurant. Bourdain mentioned it in Kitchen Confidential - the death spiral of a rest. begins with coupons and the like.

    Perhaps with a new restaurant to get the word out it works, but every Groupon rest. we've been to in the last year failed.

    I don't think that's Groupon's fault, however. I think a Groupon deal is a very good indicator if a restaurant is struggling.

    --
    You better watch out, there may be dogs about . . .