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Dearth of New Nintendo Games Could Indicate Wii 2

Posted by Soulskill on from the could-also-indicate-laziness dept.

A speculative piece at Kotaku looks at the release cycle of Nintendo games over the past 10 years, pointing out a current lull that's quite similar to the one near the launch of the Gamecube. They suggest this could be because first-party developers are busily working on games for the Wii 2. Quoting: "The spring of 2002 was the longest Nintendo game drought on record, and has a number of characteristics in common with the season we're entering now. Nintendo has launched a major piece of technology (the 3DS) and is initiating the gradual retirement of a console with a large and reliable installed base. While we entered into this data mining project with the presumption that we could recognize a pattern that presaged a new console release—the Wii 2, obviously—the last time there was a Nintendo game drought this pronounced was after the release of the Gamecube. Still, you can neatly overlay the release history of the Gamecube overtop the current release history of the Wii—they match that closely."

21 of 118 comments (clear)

  1. Could be Wii 2 or could just be bad planning by RogueyWon · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It could indicate the Wii 2 - or it could just indicate that Nintendo has once again managed to run out of first-party games to ship at pretty much the exact moment that the last remaining third party developers lose all interest in their platform. It wouldn't be the first time.

    That said, I think Kotaku probably have this right. The Wii had a very strong few years but is pretty conclusively stalled now - I suspect that despite its early sales lead, it would still end up in third place overall if the cycle were allowed to run for 10 years as some had suggested. MS and Sony have far stronger release lineups for their platforms across pretty much every genre and have hardware that is probably good for a couple more years at least (though I've always been dubious about the 10 year claim). Nintendo will no doubt have a war-chest due to the Wii's early sales, so moving to a new platform which, at the very least, has technical parity with the 360 and PS3 to enable easier cross-platform development would be a smart move. Besides, with the 3DS's long-term success still far from guaranteed, they probably need another basket to keep some of their eggs in.

    The big challenge for them is going to be getting third party developers to actually stick with their platform this time, in a way that they haven't for several console cycles now. This probably means facilitating cross-platform development, backing off with some of the "obnoxious" behaviour that they often seem to deploy with the wider industry and, perhaps most importantly, making a real effort to promote third party games on their system and demonstrating that they can actually sell. I'd also suggest shipping any new console with a "proper" controller as well as a motion-wand - a lot of games have felt really "forced" on the Wii-mote/nunchuck and you can't count on everybody going out and buying the classic controller when it's sold separately.

    1. Re:Could be Wii 2 or could just be bad planning by CastrTroy · · Score: 2

      The thing is, Nintendo has made their money. They can go on to the Wii 2. They don't have to have the same console on the market for 10 years to recoup their research and development costs. They could probably release an HD Wii with BluRay, for the same price as the PS3, and price it about the same. Nintendo is very smart in that respect. They know how to make systems that make money. Even the Gamecube, which by market share was a flop, still made them a whole lot of money.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    2. Re:Could be Wii 2 or could just be bad planning by StuartHankins · · Score: 2

      They may be cheap to develop, but if it involves using the Nintendo Wii store -- absolutely archaic interface and terribly slow even over a fast connection -- I will pass. I had some credits and tried to locate something worth buying... I didn't have the patience. Sorry.

    3. Re:Could be Wii 2 or could just be bad planning by elrous0 · · Score: 2

      I got a Wii sitting in my closet. I bought it cheap from a friend who had it sitting in *his* closet. It was fun for a while (for both of us), but the novelty wore off and the great games were few and far between. I'd say at least 90% of the games that have come for the Wii out were minigame shovelware titles (and that's being generous). the controller is fun in groups and at parties. But it's underpowered and the games just aren't there.

      --
      SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
  2. Or maybe they just aren't selling as well by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Something I've noticed with Wii owners is that the Wii tends to end up like a board game: When it gets bought they play with it for a bit, then set it aside, only to take it out at parties or the like. This isn't universal, of course, but I've observed it in enough cases to believe that it is at least somewhat prevision and it isn't something I see with the other consoles.

    It seems to me that some people get a Wii because they think the motion control looks cool, but quickly find out it is fairly gimmicky and they get tired of it and set it aside.

    I could see that leading to less interest in games for it from developers. Given that a Wii port will require more reworking than the other consoles, due to the lower capabilities and different controls, I could see developers giving it a miss in cases where they don't expect as many sales.

    That isn't to say there are no games sold on the Wii or it will die or anything, just that developers may be bringing less titles to it because perhaps people are purchasing less.

    1. Re:Or maybe they just aren't selling as well by RogueyWon · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think this is correct. I also think that there's a big issue here about the audience that Nintendo were chasing - non-gamers. They did so very successfully during the Wii's early years. I have colleagues and relatives who would never have bought a "normal" console who bought a Wii. Back in 2007, this was the cool thing to have on the middle-class dinner party circuit.

      Thing is, however, the novelty does wear off quite fast and the people who bought the Wii when it was cool and fun have moved on to other things - things which don't involve gaming. Gaming wasn't a part of their life before they bought the Wii, then they played with it for a few weeks and now gaming isn't part of their life again. They might get a short spike of renewed interest if there's another cool new accessory like the balance board, but the law of diminishing returns is very much in effect. They're certainly not going out and buying the games, so the system becomes a graveyard for third party developers, even the ones who do have decent products.

      I do wonder whether the 3DS will suffer a similar fate - potentially worse, because I don't think it's had the kind of unprecedented launch hype that the Wii had. It's certainly vulnerable in some respects; the 3d effect will prove to be a gimmick for most people; I can't use it for more than 20 minutes without a splitting headache and pretty much all of the reviews I've read mention that the reviewer turned the 3d off after a day or two. Once you strip the 3d away, you're left with a platform that starts to look a lot like a more expensive and region-locked PSP (complete with loading times, battery life problems and single-analogue-stick control issues).

    2. Re:Or maybe they just aren't selling as well by thegarbz · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I tend to think that this is based on the types of games that people are attracted to on the console. I see you observation too, but if you actually go and look through the game library of the owners of abandoned Wiis you'll typically find a lot of gimmicky crap. Ok the tennis game on Wii sport was fun for about 5 minutes, but got very boring very quickly. Yet amongst the abandoned Wiis you'll find pretty much this game, and maybe a few more like Wii Fit, Wii Play, and other similar crap.

      However the game collections of people who actively use the Wii seem to be quite different. Sure everyone has a copy of Super Mario Smash Bros to bring out at parties, but a lot of active Wii users will have things such as Guitar Hero / Band Hero, Pikmin, New Super Mario and the Galaxy games, and Donkey Kong Country Returns. If you know what you're looking for and ultimately have the ability to pick games that you can actually play rather than waving a stick at the console is fun and stays fun.

      People have been saying the Wii is dead for years, yet by Dec2010 Donkey Kong Country Returns sold 4.21million copies worldwide. Clearly there are quite a lot of people who actually are still interested in their console. I think the biggest problem is that everyone tried a Wii, even those people who simply should not be interested in such a console. My grandma has one FFS.

    3. Re:Or maybe they just aren't selling as well by jank1887 · · Score: 2

      what are some of the more popular games you hear about these days? It's not Modern Warfare, or Call of Duty version whatever. It's Angry Birds, Plants vs Zombies, things like that.

      These are the types of games people go crazy over. and like you said, there shouldn't be too much involved porting them to the wii, or offering them as DLC in the Nintendo Store. but can you??? I heard that they're finally planning on doing something like that but what took so long? The money makers these days are in the app store model. It works. People like it. It engages third parties and generates a nice % revenue for the platform maker. People have showed that they will shell out $5 ten times for ten little games, even though the same people won't shell out $50 for one new 'kickass' game. The wii has a huge installed base, and is networked.

      So, I agree, they should really engage the indie crowd, and the appstore model would be a way to do that. My Wii gets used daily. But it's mostly by my kids. it's easy enough to get around the gimmicky control and just do the 'sideways wiimote' thing like they did for Super Mario Wii. it should be a viable outlet, but I think they might have missed their chance.

  3. Hard to call by abigsmurf · · Score: 2

    The Wii is on a steep downward trend whilst the 360 and PS3 sales are picking up (I'd imagine the Wii's attatch rate is also getting quite low). It's already falling behind the PSP, 3DS and PS3 in Japan, it's not unthinkable it could happen in the west too.

    Developers simply aren't making big budget games for the console. The last major western third party game was what, Epic Mickey? It wasn't a flop (did a million copy) but it was rushed out of the door. Tales of Graces F is coming out for the PS3 in the west but not the Wii version it's a port of, that's a death knell for the console.

    Low budget party games still sell in large numbers on the console but major, meaty games are few and far between.

    As for the Wii 2... E3 is too early, they need to promote the 3DS. TGS is possibly too early as well (and I'm fully expect DQX to headline). A late autumn, early winter reveal at a dedicated Nintendo event seems likely to me. There also haven't been any rumours what could be featuring in the console either, pretty much every console announcement of the last few years has had lots of leaks hinting about what they'd feature.

    As to what could feature in it... How about gyroscopic feedback? forget rumble, I want to feel the Wiimote kick in my hand, if I'm swinging a heavy sword, I want it to be harder to swing than a light dagger. The tech's been floating around for a while, I'd love to see if in a games controller.

  4. Controller.... by leuk_he · · Score: 2

    I think you are ready for the electric feedback controller. If the opponent hits you you get a electric shock. The tech has been flaoting for a while and i would love to kick your but. And it would add a lot of extra sales for rubber gloves add on. ;) ;)

    The roumers for wii2 are floating around now already. HD (finally..) , some kind of camera feedback, better graphics.

  5. Yet another Wii death pray by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    From anti-Nintendo fanboys, probably. When asked, Nintendo always say they don't have any plan to end the Wii's life, and they shouldn't. That thing is still printing money, still has the most market penetration, and the platform is well known by developers for a long time. Why should they kill it? MS and Sony sure would very much enjoy a fresh start on the race, but Nintendo?

    And no, you can't overlay the Wii's history with the GC's. Nintendo pre-Wii was very different from Nintendo post-Wii. It is just ridiculous to compare both. In fact, it is ridiculous to insinuate that Nintendo needs to change the tide at all. Sure they are working on the successor of the Wii, they admitted it many times; as soon as they release a gaming machine they start working on the next one. But they don't have any reason to wrap up the ongoing project and release a new product, not when they are clearly in good position.

    And the slow rhythm can be explained by many factors; they have a ton of software to make for the 3DS. Miyamoto is taking his sweet time with Zelda. And they don't really hire that many people, they know that in exchange for a limited growth they can keep top quality staff. Too bad for us that want to play more and more Nintendo games; but that is what makes them Nintendo games after all. Seriously, very few other companies have a reputation of being able to create good games on just about any genre.

  6. Fitting the Data to the Question by enderwig · · Score: 2

    A single game drought in early 2002 is somehow strong enough evidence for the author to verify his hypothesis. There is no pattern since the data analysis only began using information from 2001, and there is only a single gap. Not only that, the Wii was released a full 4 years later. If you believe his guess, then Nintendo started making Wii exclusive games approximately 3 months after releasing the Gamecube.

    Due to the known lack of software support for the Gamecube, a more likely scenario is that lack of interest in the Gamecube prior to its release is a main component of the game release gap.

    1. Re:Fitting the Data to the Question by hansamurai · · Score: 2

      Pretty much agree. GameCube was released in late 2001 and they're complaining about a drought half a year after that? If anything, that simply indicates the gap between launch titles and the next wave of games. Within 12 months of this "drought" we saw Metroid Prime, Super Mario Sunshine, Zelda: Wind Waker, Animal Crossing, Mario Party 4. And those are just first party titles off the top of my head.

      --
      Reviewing just the first hour of video games.
  7. Re:Unsurprising by Nursie · · Score: 2

    Come on now, on a big tv the Wii does look a bit inadequate.

    It could do with higher res (720p?) output and some anti-aliasing. Not a lot, just a bit of polish. Simple, cartoony graphics are good enough for a lot of things, and it's clearly capable of doing more than that on the non cartoon-y games. Smooth out the toons, up the res just a little, done.

    What I find funny is that Dolphin can do things waaaaay better than the wii itself at the moment!

  8. Re:Unsurprising by jank1887 · · Score: 2

    heck, for $40-60 you could just buy one of these:

    Neoya's Wii2HDMI
    simple passthrough/converter. so you're monitor/tv needs to be okay with 480p coming over HDMI. I heard some cheaper models can't handle that.

    vdigi's VD-W3
    actual single piece upconverter. plugs into your wii output and one USB port for extra power, and gives you several HD-type signal output options. Obviously just an upconversion, and not really HD, but supposedly much better for certain things than going straight through on components. Got this one for my dad since his TV has a plethora of available HDMI ports, but only one Component or Composite input set.

  9. All right. I can't take it anymore. by killmenow · · Score: 3, Informative

    I'm undoing my mods by posting to this, I know. Sorry. I just can't take it anymore.

    To all of you who saying your Wii is never used anymore: please SEND IT TO ME.

    I pre-registered and had a Wii on day one. This is the only time I've EVER bought a console at launch. We have ~50 games and they get played a LOT (I have 4 kids).

    So much so that the optical drive in our Wii is now dead. I know I can send it in to Nintendo and pay $75 plus s/h for repair. But WTH...it seems there are many people on slashdot with Wiis sitting in closets or in a bag or on a shelf collecting dust, so won't somebody think of the children and send one my way?!

    1. Re:All right. I can't take it anymore. by domatic · · Score: 2

      The most common problem with the optical drives is that the laser fails. You can replace the laser yourself for about $20. There are many demonstrations on Youtube that describe how to carry out the repair. If you're ok with spending $70 or $80, replacing the entire drive is easier. You use the same video for laser replacement as a guide and omit the steps that involve opening the drive and just swap out the units.

  10. Re:It is about time, after all by Fallingcow · · Score: 2

    Funny, I feel the opposite way: the one and only game on the 360 I can't play on my PS3 but wish I could is the port of Perfect Dark. If I had a 360, though, there'd be several games I like that I wouldn't be able to play (LBP series, Uncharted 2, and MGS4 come to mind immediately).

    Playing BR is a nice bonus. It's also very good at playing video over a network--not sure how the 360 is at that, I got rid of mine before I tried it. I don't play online much so the free online play is much better for me than XBL; I'd never ever play online if I had to pay for it, since I wouldn't use it enough to make it worth the money. For those whose main use for their console is online multiplayer I can see how XBL would be worth it, though.

    On the other hand: Sony. God they suck.

  11. Re:It is about time, after all by demonbug · · Score: 2

    Huh? Mario Kart has always been multiplayer.

    Double Dash is the best one, but my group of friends has abandoned the series for the very-similar Blur anyway.

    Meh, double-dash was okay. Mario Kart 64 is still the best.

  12. The demand for 480p gaming is slipping by tepples · · Score: 2

    It has plenty of power for 480p gaming, which is what it does.

    As I understand the article and other articles like it, the demand for 480p gaming is slipping now that even entry-level TVs have VGA and HDMI in.

  13. Re:Unsurprising by anyGould · · Score: 2

    So bottom line: 1080p support,

    Yes, if only because that's pretty much Industry Standard now. (It wasn't when Wii came out.)

    real controller pack in

    Maybe I'm weird, but I like the Wiimote + Nunchuk combo. I have a Classic Controller, and I only use it for older games that require it. Mario Kart, Smash Bros, etc - W+N all the way. And I *really* like the point-and-click ability. Give me my freakin' lightgun games, would ya?

    backwards compatibility with Wii

    Double-plus Yes. If they can keep the Gamecube emulation as well, that would be perfect. I look at PS3s, but I'm not willing to sacrifice my PS2 collection for it.

    I'd also add - make MotionPlus standard on the controllers - I've tried Kinect, and it's barely equal to non-Plus Wiimote. With the Plus, you can start getting really fancy.

    Also, important to remember - I don't think Wii 2 is going to make a huge push into hardcore gaming. Nintendo came out far ahead by letting Sony and MS fight out that market, while keeping things simple and amusing for the kids and grandparents. I wouldn't be surprised if they keep that same logic.