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America's Tech Decline: a Reading Guide

ErichTheRed writes "Computerworld has put together an interesting collection of links to various sources detailing the decline of US R&D/innovation in technology. The cross section of sources is interesting — everything from government to private industry. It's interesting to see that some people are actually concerned about this...even though all the US does is argue internally while rewarding the behaviour that hastens the decline."

27 of 611 comments (clear)

  1. is it just me? by corbettw · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Is it just me or is the America-is-over sentiment growing by leaps and bounds lately? Not that I'm judging it, I feel the same way much of the time. But it seems more and more that this attitude is coming to the forefront of our national consciousness and yet none of our leaders have done anything to address it.

    Sad times. Guess I should go check out Mandarin for Dummies from the library.

    --
    God invented whiskey so the Irish would not rule the world.
    1. Re:is it just me? by Hatta · · Score: 5, Interesting

      There's a growing realization that those who run the US have killed the goose that lays the golden eggs.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    2. Re:is it just me? by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I think it also comes from the rest of the world simply achieving many of the same gains we already did. When the rest of the world has the same tools and conditions, invariably they will start to come to par with us. From our perspective maybe it looks like we're losing our ability, but perhaps its just that other nations are just catching up rather than completely overtaking us.

      And unlike many other historical world power, we actively encourage people to come here, learn, and go back home and create. There are those that argue that's bad for us. In the short term, perhaps it is, but as more of the world achieves our standard of living, there are more consumers for our goods as well. Long term, raising up your neighbors only helps you.

      --
      People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
    3. Re:is it just me? by Oxford_Comma_Lover · · Score: 5, Interesting

      > Is it just me or is the America-is-over sentiment growing by leaps and bounds lately?

      That's because unemployment has gone up a lot, almost everyone has less money, we've shifted from having a great industrial base to having a service-based economy, and our last two wars have been expensive asymmetric wars where there are non-state actors on the other side. Also, those wars combined with different economic and social policies have made us politically unpopular.

      But it certainly isn't *over* yet--it's just not the rising star these days. It still has the most effective military on the planet. But those expenses are being curtailed while China's are increasing. I suspect we'll have a pre-WWI England/Germany type race, where the US outspends china for a long time to the great expense of both nations, but the US retains superiority in a number of fields for so long as it can afford to do so.

      China is greatly increasing the number of patents it issues--that will be good for us the day they actually support patents for extraterritorial inventors. They'll do that when they have enough IP and we refuse to honor their patents because they don't honor ours. There will be political games, but long-term it may be good for us. (Although we do need better science and math education--and more importantly, better cultural education on the value of science and math).

      --
      -- IANAL, this isn't legal advice, and definitely isn't legal advice for you. Also, Squee!
    4. Re:is it just me? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      There is another option.

      Post World War II there were basically two countries that either weren't former colonies or bombed back decades in development. The US and USSR. The Cold War pretty much was the two big boys fighting and keeping everyone else down.

      USSR fell. The wounded are healing, near healed. The former colonies are following the path of the former colonies turned super power.

      The US may not be over, but having to admit the playing field is quickly becoming more "fair".

    5. Re:is it just me? by cobrausn · · Score: 5, Informative

      A large portion of my family is machinists. We own a machine shop that makes special order components that require a lot of precision. Parts made from the shop have ended up in all manner of plants and ships, including the recent USS Reagan.

      The general sentiment of my relatives that own the shop is that the US doesn't actually make much anymore - we have become more of a consumer and middleman than a producer. A lot of their competition used to be in the US, and a lot of their customers as well. Now their competition is outside the US, and their customers are more often just a middleman for overseas customers, countries that are going through their own technological / industrial renaissances. Their only real big US customers are GE and the government. They, at least, are convinced this is at least part of the reason for our recent declining relevance in industry.

      --
      How does it feel to be a liar with pants constantly on fire?
    6. Re:is it just me? by royallthefourth · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You seem to be forgetting that the USSR bore the brunt of Germany's aggression and still managed to rebuild, just as it had rebuilt in the wake of its civil war. The USSR (and the Warsaw Pact, and Yugoslavia, and Albania) rebuilt with a command economy and Europe (and Japan) rebuilt with heavy state investment and trade protectionism (and the USA continued to build with state investment without worrying about destruction back home).

      The real lesson here is that a modern industrial state with some reasonable quality of life doesn't come about by the invisible hand; it takes focused, directed work at the goal to get anything done.

    7. Re:is it just me? by MagikSlinger · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Tyler Cowan wrote an interesting hyopthesis called "The Great Stagnation" (available only as an e-book on Amazon). Basically, there were easy pickings for growth: revolutionary technologies like electricity, lots of land, lots of opportunity. Now, there are no low-hanging fruit to get high growth again. Everyone else is simply playing catch-up.

      For America, the problem is that for the last 20 years, being a lawyer or Wall Street-type manager or financial manager was where the money was. Unfortunately, those types don't actually create anything. They are, at best, enablers of the people who do and make things. In most cases, though, they are simply fat parasites on the free market draining our best & brightest into pointless careers making derivatives, etc.

      America's decline isn't from government, or even necessarily the Rich and Powerful, but from her people. They've turned their back on getting rich by working hard (understandable because of above) or inventing & discovering things. They've turned their back on learning and education (See for example, TLC's transformation from a science/learning channel to reality TV channel). They've also begun turning their back on science and logic in favor of "gut feelings" (Thanks, Glen Beck and Fox News!).

      Unless America opens up its borders again, I'd say: get used to it.

      --
      The bitter lessons of a veteran coder: http://bitterprogrammer.blogspot.com
    8. Re:is it just me? by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Are you reffering to the middle class or the wealthy. This opinion exists on both(as if there were only two) sides, but widely strongly disagree about the basis of American strength. The reality is that the U.S. is already in second(or lower) place for every major assessment of power, except military strength.

    9. Re:is it just me? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Funny

      The real lesson here is that a modern industrial state with some reasonable quality of life doesn't come about by the invisible hand; it takes focused, directed work at the goal to get anything done.

      Why do you hate America?

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    10. Re:is it just me? by budcub · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I grew up in the 1970's and had to listen to my parents complain about how great things used to be and how they sucked now (then). Didn't hear it so much in the late 1980's. When the recession hit in the early 1990's it was in all the newspaper editorials that the US was a fading empire like the Greeks, Romans, and British before us. Basically everything we're hearing now. Once we bounced back and had a big economic boom in the late 90's it wasn't the case anymore. Then the recession of the early 2000s hit and it was the same thing all over again. Our empire such as it is may be fading but whenever there is a economic downturn, we hear the same complaints.

    11. Re:is it just me? by Duradin · · Score: 5, Funny

      "There's a growing realization that those who run the US have killed the goose that lays the golden eggs."

      The reviews said that the foie gras was very good, only a brief and slight aftertaste of regret..

    12. Re:is it just me? by cobrausn · · Score: 4, Informative

      The shop is not dooing poorly at all - if anything, new technology has made the quality of product go up and revenue with it. The customer base and competition has changed.

      --
      How does it feel to be a liar with pants constantly on fire?
    13. Re:is it just me? by Hatta · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The wealthy have killed off the middle class. A strong middle class is what made America great.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    14. Re:is it just me? by internerdj · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sorry, you misunderstood. Your product is technically a hard product, but you started with a refined product, added what your customers perceive as value, and sold a more refined product. If buy a threaded rod from you, does the removal of metal to form the threads add value? You started with 2 lbs of metal and give me 1.8. Now say I'm making a jet, I need a threaded rod. You sell it to a company that then sells it to me with the addition that it insures it to a certain strength. If it fails then they take some of my risk. The value you added is no different than the value they added. Your product is a phsical change, but other than that a process that makes something more useful to me is worth extra cost and the form of that value does not make either job less important.

    15. Re:is it just me? by mlts · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I'd probably pin the decline of the US on a number of factors:

      1: The view that engineers, mathematicians, and computer scientists are "nerds" and deserve contempt, while someone who might kick around a ball for 5-10 minutes is considered a superhero. China and Russia value their scientists, like how we in the US did in the 1950s-1960s. Now since science is considered "beneath" most Americans, compared to business or law, not sowing out seeds in the field means a crappy harvest. You are right, we had a long while where attorney was the meal ticket. Now, there isn't much they can parasite off of, so those fields are drying up. Until people in the US as a whole start valuing the people that innovate, as opposed to a sports hero, or Justin Beiber, the economy will remain stagnant, and the jobs that don't move overseas will be taken by H-1Bs.

      2: Lack of interest in R&D. Companies here either license new stuff, buy the company that has it, or litigate the company that has something they want out of existence. Actual old school R&D like PARC or Bell Labs isn't done anymore, and it is blamed on "product liability". Even the government isn't that interested in keeping innovation. So, obviously (OB car example), when the gas is turned off to the engine, it stops moving. No seed funding == no cool new things coming from labs.

      3: Espionage. To a PHB, security has no ROI. They really don't give a shit if their corporate trade secrets mysteriously appear in Beijing or Tehran as long as they have good sales numbers for this quarter. So, even with innovation, it is stolen by other nations that actually value security. Until companies actually give a shit about keeping their stuff secure, any research done in the US is a freebie given to BRIC.

      4: Lack of education in the US. Other countries value education, and help fund it for their citizens. For an American to get to a similar education level as an average French or German adult at the age of 25-30, it will take $20,000 to $50,000 worth of tuition. For an average American to get to the level of education of a German cop (not a lawyer, a street policeman) it would take over six digits of tuition spent.

      Until these are addressed, the slide will continue.

    16. Re:is it just me? by Antisyzygy · · Score: 5, Interesting
      --
      That brings me to an interesting point, / . is just "the ramblings of socially-inept, technology-literate news-mongers".
    17. Re:is it just me? by magarity · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Interesting thing about that that refutes your point

      And the even more interesting thing about that chart is they choose when the Great Society programs started to hit full stride as when to notice low income earners stopped improving. No longer do the poor in America see themselves as temporarily embarrassed millionaires but instead as deserving something for nothing. Thanks Kennedy/LBJ/Nixon/Ford!

    18. Re:is it just me? by binary+paladin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That went away with the middle class too. Two sides of the same coin. The rich want control and the poor want big brother to tend to them (generally speaking). A strong middle class is necessary for a free society.

    19. Re:is it just me? by peragrin · · Score: 5, Insightful

      if you can't compete then the free market is working.

      you can't be capitalistic and complain about cheap foriegn labor. that's is being a hypocrite

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
  2. Buy them off by Sperbels · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Why not just buy off the World Economic Forum and force them to publish more favorable results? That's right...we're America! That's how we roll!

  3. Andy Grove's comment on offshoring by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "Wrote Grove: "You could say, as many do, that shipping jobs overseas is no big deal because the high-value work -- and much of the profits -- remain in the U.S. That may well be so. But what kind of a society are we going to have if it consists of highly paid people doing high-value-added work -- and masses of unemployed?""

    Nailed it. Offshoring makes companies and their management richer. It saves a little for consumers of the relevant product, if the savings are passed on to them rather than simply taken as profits ... but those consumers have fewer and fewer jobs from which to get income to buy the products.

    The endgame here is for the local market for consumer goods to dwindle, and then for the company to move it's main office to a tax haven and/or somewhere with a population that still has money to spend. They've basically mined the consumer market until it's depleted, and then they move on. This is what happens when you consistently underpay your regular workers and/or ship their jobs elsewhere: you undermine the entire economy. Apparently modern industries have forgotten basic lessons from way back in the days of Henry Ford: pay your workers reasonably well, and they will ultimately help your community and business thrive.

  4. Short Attention Spans by chill · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The problem is short attention spans, and a difficulty in communicating the benefits of long-term, fundamental research combined with a political, financial and popular culture obsessed with a "that was yesterday, what have you done for me lately" mentality.

    A perfect illustration is shortly after the "merger" of France-based Alcatel and U.S.-based Lucent Technologies was the virtual kneecapping of Bell Labs.

    Then CEO Patricia Russo announced that long-term, fundamental research would no longer be performed at Bell Labs as that wasn't the culture of Alcatel. If a project couldn't be productized in 7 years, it would be shelved.

    To me that was a "break out the shovels" moment. As in, "It has been a long, hard decline but we can see the bottom. Break out the shovels, we're going to dig this hole deeper."

    The same thing goes on with Congress and funding basic scientific research at placed like NASA, the various National Labs (Sandia, Lawrence Livermore, Fermi, Oak Ridge, etc.). Just look at what happened to the Superconducting Super Collider.

    The problem is you can't always predict what benefits will come from fundamental research, thus you can't give the bean counters a predicted return on investment number. When is an even harder number.

    The only real time the United States as a government priority has pumped money into research is if that research could be used to blow shit up. Actually, this is probably true of Britain, Germany, Russia, Japan and China as well.

    We need to be able to clearly articulate the benefits to society and the economy as a whole that fundamental research brings. If we want to drive forward into the future imagined by the visionaries, and not end up in the one envisioned by the dystopians (no Mad Max, please), this and education need to be our top priorities as a nation. Which nation? Any and every nation.

    --
    Learning HOW to think is more important than learning WHAT to think.
  5. Re:Want to see the future - look at education by jiteo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    1960's: "Little Johnny, what do you want to be when you grow up?" "An engineer for NASA, helping build the craft that will take us to Mars!"

    2010's: "Little Johnny, what do you want to be when you grow up?" "A rapper who brags about his bling and his bitches!"

  6. Socialists! by dcollins · · Score: 4, Funny

    How dare you assert that any of our resources be directed by the government into research and development for the greater good of the nation? When CEO's could instead have the total freedom to take the money and run? As Reagan's assistant secretary for productivity & technology said in 1984, outlining a plan to restructure all of higher education, "Accountability and expertise must come from the private sector where the user needs are best identified. This is our intent." Thank god that has been so successful!

    --
    We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
  7. You want to help it return? by C_Kode · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If you want to help it return, kill all patent trolls.

  8. Re:Win the Future by jd · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Maybe. The space program might be a counter-example. When the USSR was in the lead, America pushed hard to keep up and "win the race". These are two very different strategies. The USSR was much more into conquering and exploiting the new frontier and had developed technology with that in mind. Arguably it's a damn good thing they didn't win (from any kind of ethical standpoint) for that very reason. The US got bored silly after "winning" and essentially dismantled all of NASA's projects on getting people to Mars (which they actually could have done by the mid 80s). They won the race, they got the prize, contest over. And when a contest is over, the normal thing is to go home and that is exactly what happened.

    It has been argued that had Russia actually got men on the moon first, both Russia and the US would have active space colonies by now, not just a crudely-assembled and much-reduced space station that's too damn small for the kind of science needed to continue justifying it.

    I would alter the argument a little, as I don't think the Cold War in Space would have been pretty: I think the US is fundamentally incapable of generating momentum in and of itself but is extremely capable of very efficiently tapping into the momentum of others and developing it in new and highly creative ways. In other words, the highly compete-till-you-die aggression of the US is only good if there's a competitor to compete against, that the US has less of a "work ethic" and more of a "win ethic". That other nations have a responsibility, particularly supernations like the EU, to be that competition and not defer a damn thing.

    --
    It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)