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Will Capped Data Plans Kill the Cloud?

theodp writes "With the introduction of its Chromebook, Google is betting big on the Cloud. As is Apple, with its iCloud initiative. So too are Netflix and Skype. Unfortunately, their very existence is threatened by data-capping carriers, who have set a course to make sure that the network is NOT the computer. 'I don't know what the solution is,' writes David Pogue. 'I don't know if anyone's thinking about this. But there are big changes coming. There are big forces about to shape our lives online. And at the moment, they're on a direct collision course.'"

22 of 530 comments (clear)

  1. Simple by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The solution is taking the networks away from those who don't want to provide the service they promised to provide when they were given monopolies by the government.

    1. Re:Simple by GIL_Dude · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The solution is taking the networks away from those who don't want to provide the service they promised to provide when they were given monopolies by the government.

      Obviously your argument is simplistic. Now, we all know that it doesn't cost much (if anything) more to run a network running at 50% capacity than one running at 10%, so the straight up "utility" model like electricity or water billing doesn't exactly translate. However, it DOES cost more when you have to split out areas that are currently on one cable loop into two or more cable loops (as an example). So there absolutely is a cost to allowing usage to climb with no limit and no increased price. What the real solution has to be is some form of tiered service. Not a "aha! you went over your limit by 2 GB - you owe $100" type of gouging tier. More of a "all use between 0 and 150 GB per month you pay $0.10 per GB, for use between 150 and 300 GB per month you are billed at $0.15 per GB, and for usage over 300 GB per month you are billed at $0.20 per GB" type of deal. There would be a "connection / account maintenance" base fee (like a meter fee for electricity - for an example say $10), and any rental fees (if you rent your modem, etc.). The rest would be simple tiered usage based.

      With my admittedly pulled out of somewhere the sun doesn't shine sample numbers it would look like this:

      Use 80 GB per month: Base fee + 80 * $.10 = $18.
      Use 200 GB per month: Base fee + (150 * $0.10) + (50 * $0.15) = $32.50
      Use 400 GB per month: Base fee + (150 * $0.10) + (150 * $0.15) + (100 * $0.20) = $67.50

      Obviously those are just sample numbers, but they contain a penalty for using "a lot" of bandwidth. People can argue about whether there should be "night time GB" and "weekend GB" and all that - but the basics of pay as you go should really end up being the model for network usage.

    2. Re:Simple by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If this does kill "The Cloud" can we go a whole week without a new story about it?

      Yes you can cluster computers together so that the individual identity/address of any particular node of the cluster is unimportant. Yes you can combine the resources of those nodes to increase computing power and availability. Can we all collectively get over this and end our eyes-glazed fascination with the subject now? It really is and should be a very simple thing to understand.

      Nope, gotta bend over and grab your ankles and say "please marketers, please ruin one more thing, please ravage me hard". So wait, we gotta come up with a term for it. We'll call it, "THE CLOUD" because that sounds mysterious and foggy and like something you can't see through so you wouldn't know what was inside it. That'll keep 'em at the edge of their seats, yeah. Thanks to previous marketing efforts they already think their PCs are magic boxes they could never understand anyway, so this will build on that mystery.

      The final step is crucial. We must obsessively expound this at every opportunity. It must be inserted into every conversation. Sure, you can upload a video to Youtube. But have you uploaded a video TO THE CLOUD (cue dramatic music)?! Yeah, you can set up a web server and serve up web pages, but have you made web pages and uploaded them TO THE CLOUD (dramatic music)?! Sure, Seti@Home and other projects (mostly about breaking encryption) demonstrated that distributed computing can process massive amounts of data... but have you hired Amazon so you could do this WITH THE CLOUD (music)?!

      It's fun to create a solution and then look for a problem to which it applies. And then mentioning it everywhere and inserting it into every conversation, like an evangelical who just discovered Jesus. Next time we do this can we keep it a secret from the marketers? The only way they ever seem to understand technology is to dumb it down.

    3. Re:Simple by CastrTroy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The thing is, is even with water and electricity, the cost of providing the service doesn't change much from 10% to 50% usage. In my city, they had a huge push to get people to use less water. Well, that made everybody pay so much less for water that they had to double the rates, because they didn't pull in enough money. The cost of operations was basically the same regardless of how much water people actually used. But you are right on one thing. 200 GB or 400 GB is a lot of data in a month. Unless you spend 10 hours a day watching Netflix, or download every new game on Steam, you won't use up that much anyway.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    4. Re:Simple by hedwards · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's a really bad precedent to set. If we start charging more for certain content than for other types of content, what precisely is there to prevent it from spreading to other areas where the ISPs are able to rationalize the decision? A better solution would be for ISPs to start fulfilling their promises rather than using savings to beef up executive compensation.

    5. Re:Simple by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 4, Interesting

      100MB of patches from Apple or Microsoft

      Here's a list of Apple Patches.

      My favorite?

      Canon Printer Drivers v2.5 for Mac OS X v10.6
      This update installs the latest software for your printer or scanner.
      April 13, 2011 - 307.23 MB

      Here's a point upgrade:

      Mac OS X v10.6.7 Update
      The 10.6.7 Update is recommended for all users running Mac OS X Snow Leopard and includes general operating system fixes that enhance the stability, compatibility, and security of your Mac.
      March 21, 2011 - 475 MB

      An Xcode update? That'll be 4.25 Gigabytes, please.
      100 Megabytes is peanuts.

    6. Re:Simple by Volguus+Zildrohar · · Score: 4, Funny

      "SkyNet"

      --
      When confronted with one problem, some think "I'll use recursion". Now they are confronted with one problem.
    7. Re:Simple by rtfa-troll · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Bandwidth is a scarce resource. [...] They should charge a very minimal fee for running a wire, and then charge users for bandwidth at an auction basis.

      This is the horribly misguided wisdom the ISPs are managing to put to us. Connectivity is scarce; putting in cables is expensive. Maintaining them is even more expensive. Once you have the right ones in place however, the difference in cost between installing 500kb/S and 50Mb/S is pretty small. So bandwidth should be pretty close to free once you have the connnection. Why isn't it? Well, bandwidth is a good proxy for technical knowledge. It is also needed to serve content. The ISPs want to use bandwidth charging to stop private people from competing in content creation.

      --
      =~ s,(.*),<sarcasm>$1</sarcasm>,g if any_point_you_wish();
  2. Answer... by girlintraining · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "Only in the United States, where caps are popular." But in truth, I'd be more concerned about unbrided capitalism and monopolistic practices killing not just the cloud, but any hope my country has of competing in a global marketplace. We've already hamstrung ourselves on an antiquidated patent and copyright system that is forcing our talent overseas to produce, we have our government busy chasing down music pirates while ignoring the massive amounts of identity theft and fraud perpetuated by malware and botnets, and the list goes on.

    --
    #fuckbeta #iamslashdot #dicemustdie
    1. Re:Answer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Now that Microsoft has been approved to acquire Skype, I'd say Microsoft and Google both pressuring for unlimited bandwidth will come to the aid of consumers...at least to a degree. However, I look for them both to lock users into their own clouds, which could be worse than ISP's locking in people.
      I do love the observation that the government is wasting our money chasing down small time music copiers, while letting the big time malware and botnets mostly slide.

    2. Re:Answer... by Glendale2x · · Score: 4, Informative

      That's a patently false "answer": Australia and Canada are two countries with major providers that have caps.

      --
      this is my sig
    3. Re:Answer... by spinkham · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Would for profit roads be better for our economy then our present system? Are you against municipal providing of water and sewer services?

      Government excels at providing these sort of infrastructure projects. If we took a tiny fraction of the military budget and put it to providing fiber to every home in America, we would be investing in important infrastructure just as we did with roads. It would be a boom for our total economy, instead of a small win for a small fraction of the telecom space only.

      --
      Blessed are the pessimists, for they have made backups.
    4. Re:Answer... by causality · · Score: 5, Insightful

      But in truth, I'd be more concerned about unbrided capitalism and monopolistic practices,

      I guess I don't understand why capitalism is a dirty word around here. Isn't it a good thing that businesses are not run by the state? Does competition not spur innovation? Which economic system would you have in capitalism's place?

      The problem is that the ISPs were not built on a model of capitalism. They were built on state-funded and state-granted monopolies. Capitalism is not perfect and the model does have weaknesses. One such weakness is when the barrier to entry is astronomically high so that new players cannot independently enter into the market and compete with established players. It was precisely for this reason that the tremendous cost of running lines to each individual home had to be state funded.

      You cannot establish a monopoly with state money, suddenly decide to treat it as a purely capitalistic enterprise, and then expect healthy competition. This is doomed to fail simply because it is inconsistent with the nature of the situation. The reality is, we the taxpayers got these companies and systems off the ground and made their existence possible. We the taxpayers have a reasonable expectation that they behave in our interests. They are rightfully beholden to us and they have the option of changing careers if they don't like that.

      So far the best solution we have created is to let them operate as a private corporation that holds a monopoly with reasonable regulations to prevent them from exploiting the fact that they are a monopoly. This includes requiring them to lease lines in such a way that competitors can enter the market without digging up thousands of miles of land to lay down their own lines. Your other option is to have no competition at all. This system has weaknesses that are easier to overcome because they are political problems, not economic problems. The political problem is to keep the monopolies in check so that their interests don't override ours.

      But to talk about this as though it were a commodity like coffee, where any farmer can independently grow coffee and sell it on the open market and compete with the big boys, well that line of thought is getting us nowhere. It doesn't apply. It's a square peg that you're trying to drive into a round hole. This is a unique situation and the more general rules of capitalism only partially apply.

      --
      It is a miracle that curiosity survives formal education. - Einstein
    5. Re:Answer... by joocemann · · Score: 4, Interesting

      You ignored the two words that you actually quoted, that would have informed you and your question.

      Unbrided....monopolistic.

      Capitalism is best had on markets for wants, not needs, and is only really maintained in the sense that you described when there is enough regulation to keep us safe from the ill efects of greed.

    6. Re:Answer... by mcgrew · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I've been reading The Mobs and the Mafia: the Illustrated History of Organized Crime by Hank Messic and Burt Goldblatt (1972, ISBN 0-88365-211-0) and was struck by a passage:

      ... in the three years after the [stock market] crash... those businessmen who didn't kill themselves turned by the thousands to the only men with money and credit -- the gangsters.

      It goes on to describe how legitimate business was in debt to the mob, and how politicians were beholden to businessmen for their campaigns. I think that pretty much explains why government goes after file sharers while ignoring spammers, fraudsters, and identity thieves. Our governments, federal, state, and local, are corrupt to the core. The "MAFIAA" really is the Mafia.

  3. Will the Cloud Kill Capped Data? by JoeCommodore · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I think it may be worse news for the carriers. If they wont provide suitable bandwidth, eventually someone will develop a more popular alternative that bypasses their speed bump altogether.

    --
    "Enjoy what you're doing! If it becomes drudgery, you're doing it wrong!" - Jim Butterfield
    1. Re:Will the Cloud Kill Capped Data? by adamstew · · Score: 4, Informative

      You would think so. But sadly, we don't exist in a free market, as far as internet access is concerned.

      There have already been several localities (municipal level) that tried to setup their own internet services for their residents, because they were unhappy with what the local cableco and telco were willing to provide. So the cableco and telco have sent lobbyists to the local city councils and state legislative bodies and are having laws written to prevent these forms of competition from even getting off the ground.

      Even if another private entity, outside of the cable/phone companies wanted to try and provide internet access, I imagine they will run in to the same road blocks. Also, you need to get local approval to be able to run your wires on the utility poles.

      I had hoped that Broadband-over-powerlines would allow a 3rd carrier in to most areas to help drive up speeds and drive down prices, but it hasn't been very successful and has run in to a whole slew of technical issues.

      Wireless communication won't be able to keep up, in terms of speed and data caps. Getting in to the wireless business is a huge investment. RF Spectrum is very expensive and you can only physically push so much data through RF.

      Sadly, except in a few small and isolated areas, I think we're going to be stuck with the cableco and telco duopolies for quite a while... The only way that is changing is if there are some pretty serious regulations at the federal and/or state levels to really allow for some good competition.

      The only wildcards, and hope, that I see is Google's fiber initiatives and the corporate muscle flexing of some large companies. Once enough big companies like Google, Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, etc. want to start pushing their own high-speed services through the limited broadband pipes, they might be willing to spend some money on a state and federal level to lobby for some sanity.

  4. Re:No. by mcrbids · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I like the cloud for some things. But i also like it if a device which has more memory than i need for all my personal documents (including 10000 Photos) is used wise enough not to require 24x7 online access.

    That's a matter of personal preference.

    capped data is the expression of a physical reality vs. a marketing tool used to push users quickly into freshly build networks without investing in the sw and forcing them to new phones.

    Capped data is a joke. It's a movement towards charging per-unit prices for a service that has no meaningful per-unit cost. Sure, it costs money to build a network, blah blah blah. But there is no fixed cost for moving data around. A Gbit switch costs about as much as a 100 Mbit switch did a few years back, and moves 100x as much data in a unit of time as the 100 Mbit one. It uses about the same amount of electricity, regardless of how much data is being moved.

    Where did that per-unit cost go?

    Because of this, I figure it's only a matter of time before this whole "cap the user" nonsense goes away.

    --
    I have no problem with your religion until you decide it's reason to deprive others of the truth.
  5. Which would be great by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 4, Informative

    If it were the truth, but it isn't. Plenty of other countries have caps. At least in the US the caps are usually not super low, so you can still do a reasonable bit of "cloud" type stuff and not hit them. Talk to the Australians, they have some pretty severe caps, enough they have to limits their regular Internet usage.

    Caps are not a US thing. They are found in various places all around the world. They also aren't universal in the US. You can find non-capped Internet providers. Probably not in all areas, unfortunately, but they exist.

  6. Re:No. by TRACK-YOUR-POSITION · · Score: 4, Funny

    That's a matter of personal preference.

    There are people who prefer their devices to stop working when the network stops? "I can't access my photos because the net is down. Hooray!"

  7. Re:Apple by siride · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The last thing I want is Apple owning the ISP infrastructure. Imagine how locked down the internet would be then.

  8. Fixed, variable and opportunity costs by sjbe · · Score: 5, Informative

    But there is no fixed cost for moving data around.

    What you are saying is more or less correct but your terminology is wrong. What you are describing is properly called a variable cost not a fixed cost. The equipment used to build and operate the network is largely comprised of fixed costs. It costs the phone company the same money whether they send one packet or one million packets. The costs associated to a specific packet would be variable costs and as you rightly point out, the direct variable costs are negligible. As equipment is used, the fixed costs get amortized over a large volume of data and in time become negligible on a per packet basis. This doesn't mean they become zero but they start large and become small asymptotically.

    That said there IS a cost that you are not considering. IF there is insufficient bandwidth available to serve all requests, then there is an opportunity cost associated with the data packet. If your data can't get through because someone else is hogging the pipe, you as a customer will get pissed and possible switch services (if possible). Since we know that the telecom providers have a large but finite amount of bandwidth available, opportunity costs matter. Hence data caps. They cannot serve all possible requests until their network has the capacity to do so. If they allow unlimited usage and people actually do use it that way (and some do), the telecom incurs an opportunity cost in the form of being unable to serve some of their customers.

    In THEORY data caps make economic sense. In REALITY, it's probably more greed by the telecoms than a real problem most of the time.