Law Enforcement Wants To Try 'Predictive Policing'

Harperdog with this excerpt from a story about using statistics to fight crime: "It’s great when cops catch criminals after they've done their dirty work. But what if police could stop a crime before it was even committed? Though that may sound like a fantasy straight from a Philip K. Dick novel, it's a goal police departments from Los Angeles to Memphis are actively pursuing with help from the Department of Justice and a handful of cutting-edge academics. It's called 'predictive policing.' The idea: Although no one can foresee individual crimes, it is possible to forecast patterns of where and when homes are likely to be burgled or cars stolen by analyzing truckloads of past crime reports and other data with sophisticated computer algorithms. 'We know where crime has occurred in the last month, but that doesn't mean it'll be there next month,' Los Angeles Police Department Lt. Sean Malinowski says. 'The only way for us to continue to have crime reduction is to start anticipating where crime is going to occur.'"

Comments

They're spending a lot of money on this?

[jandrese]

Are they spending a lot of money for a fancy computer system that will tell them to watch out for crime in the crime ridden part of town?

Re:They're spending a lot of money on this?

[Lunix Nutcase]

I know! How dare people expect more evidence than the person is black in determining whether they are a criminal or not. Such madness.

Re:They're spending a lot of money on this?

[rtb61]

I should think as a American you should be happy that police are finally changing their focus from drug users to home break ins and car thefts.

You should be cheering the end of easy arrests for drugs and the efforts to pursue crimes with innocent victims.

Most people are sick of home break ins, car thefts and even muggings as being treated like nothing by the police and the victims generally having no hope of seeing justice, if this study is positive sign of a true change of focus, then it is about time.

Re:They're spending a lot of money on this?

[Anonymous Coward]

Is it possible that those break-ins and muggings you mention derive from people trying to get shit to sell for their drugs?

Re:They're spending a lot of money on this?

[Anonymous Coward]

First, it's idiocy to equate race with the likelihood of being a criminal, as you've done. Second, it's equally idiotic to remove police resources from high-crime areas and put them in low-crime areas in the name of political correctness.

This effort is just common sense. If crime increases during the warm months and decreases in the winter, I'd expect the police to adjust their efforts accordingly. If more crime occurs in some neighborhoods than others, it would be stupid not to devote more resources to those neighborhoods.

Politically-correct nitwits be damned.

Not precrime

[YodasEvilTwin]

Policing the Dunkin' Donuts isn't going to prevent many crimes. Policing areas where crimes occur will prevent crimes, or at least force the criminals to expend energy going elsewhere. This is called "the police being smart and doing their jobs" and it's nothing like Minority Report.

It's about time.

[Comboman]

The police seem to have no problem analyzing data to figure out the best places and times for speed traps. It's about time they used the same principles to stop real crimes.

Re:Otherwise Known as

[surveyork]

Somebody mod parent up. One of the best ways to reduce crime is to reduce the inequalities between the very rich and the very poor. Look at the crime rates in countries where this gap is lower. Another way is education. So, if you want to fight crime, invest in police training, urban tanks, SWATs, fancy pre-cogn algorithms, etc. If you want to prevent crime, invest in raising the quality of life of the poor and in teachers.

Re:My CJ teacher

[TheCarp]

> It boils down to the question, is it better to prevent a crime or catch the criminal after the fact?

Didn't you just answer that question:

C. Ignore crime and engage in modern day tax farming instead

Which is about what I expect as Homeland Stupidity has put more and more pigs on the street, and shrinking violent crime rates have given those pigs less and less to do.

This is not minority report type stuff

[perpenso]

This is a joke right?

This is not minority report type stuff. This stuff is more like: data shows an increase in vandalism in the vicinity of the sports stadium after a championship game. OK, most people get that because the relationship is somewhat easy to grasp. However with data mining much more subtle trends in human behavior can be discovered. This sort of stuff has been done in the past with respect to consumer behavior. For example Wal Mart discovered that when news in the gulf region warned of a possible hurricane there was a spike in the sales of pop tarts. So when the news mentions a possible hurricane Wal Mart immediately relocates pop tarts from the mid west to the gulf region before there is any apparent demand.

What will most likely occur is that data mining of law enforcement records will be used to schedule and position officers in different areas depending on various inputs: season, weather, temperature, community events, sports events, etc.

Re:Otherwise Known as

[surveyork]

Ha, ha. So funny. It's not a matter or robbing the rich and give their money to the poor, it's a matter of giving the poor employment and education and sharing a bit of your wealth won't harm you, since it's proven that, beyond a certain threshold, more money != more happiness. But hey, I give you that unchecked Capitalism works marvelously... for the 1% on top.

This line...

[fyngyrz]

'The only way for us to continue to have crime reduction is to start anticipating where crime is going to occur.'"

...is nonsense. What they need to do is put cops on the *street*, walking the neighborhoods; instead of driving cars around, playing with traffic. I am a *lot* more concerned about rape, assault and burglary and the opportunity for kids to play safely in their own yards than I am in the fact Joe Schlmoe was driving over the speed limit (yes, even quite a bit over the speed limit) or doesn't have the state revenue sticker glued to his license plate, or rolled through a stop sign. Likewise, if they'd stop interfering with people's choices to use recreational drugs, the black market would disappear, dealers would have nothing profitable to do, and the various police forces could concentrate on actual crime.

As long as the various police forces (and the legislatures that drive them) continue to misdirect a large proportion of their efforts, I'm not inclined to pay serious attention to any theory they might come up with about why and/or how crime can be reduced. So far, they seem to be quite focused on proving they don't know how to do their jobs worth a damn.