Could Electron Counts Detect Major Earthquakes?

hcs_$reboot writes "According to a Japanese researcher, the electron count escalation high in the atmosphere could indicate that a major earthquake is going to happen within 30~40 minutes. That phenomenon was observed before three earthquakes since 2004. If confirmed, the earthquake detection system could save thousands of lives."

Comments

Dense network of GPS Satellite?

[bill_mcgonigle]

TFA says:

There is a dense network of GPS satellites, especially over earthquake-prone areas like Japan,

Is GPS satellite distribution not uniform-on-average across the globe? Sombody can 'splains?

Re:Dense network of GPS Satellite?

[vlm]

Is GPS satellite distribution not uniform-on-average across the globe?

Yeah... the phrase to google for is "high latitude GPS coverage". Its remarkably poor over the north pole, for example. Oh good enough to use, but commercial grade RX are optimized for plenty of overhead coverage and there is zero overhead coverage at all at the pole, and some commercial RX freak out because they see like 20 low elevation satellites and can't decide which to use, so their precision goes bonkers at the pole. Still better than the alternatives, but not as good as low altitude.

There are differences between military and civilian RX, and its not just temperature ratings and cost. (also non-military rx have to shut down at ICBM altitudes and at artillery speeds, or they are classed as regulated export controlled munition devices)

HAARP in your face

[xiando]

Natural earthquakes don't change the atmosphere, HAARP made do. It's interesting to note that Russia reported that they detected this attack against Japan 8 hours before the earthquake struck using their HAARP detection system a few days after it happened.

Re:Earthquake Shelter?

[Mr Z]

Well, for earthquakes near major infrastructure like, say, nuclear reactor, they could initiate a reactor shutdown before the earthquake starts. In places like California with the double-decker freeways, you may be able to get motorists at least off the bridges onto more solid land. You could have trains come to a halt, too. And, you could get emergency personnel paged and at the ready.

Re:Earthquake Shelter?

[vlm]

Not to be overly cynical but 30-40 minutes to brace for a major earthquake? While I see this being helpful I can't see saving thousands of lives - at least not in the immediate future.

Before the SCADA control system drops due to destruction, you can slam all natural gas valves shut. Well, at half an hour, you could darn near depressurize the system... Instantly, no deaths due to fire.

Also its practically impossible to be crushed under a building by an earthquake, if you're outside and "far away" from buildings. Yet another reason it sucks to live in an urban area, but for the rest of us...

Finally its difficult to be crushed under a bridge or trapped in a subway tunnel if they've been evacuated...

I would hazard a guess that you could reduce fatalities by about 75% to 90% with this system... until false alarms make it ignored, etc.

Re:Even 2-5 minutes would help

[mvar]

before hunkering down under the strongest table available.

You definitely don't want to do this since a brick wall or piece of concrete falling from the ceiling would make short work of your table and, well, you. Having been in numerous earthquakes in my region, the best "anti-earthquake" measure isn't predicting when it will happen (you can't be 100% sure) but strong and well-built buildings / houses. The Japanese have had earthquakes above 7 in Richter scale (that's big) for decades but you won't see any disaster in the scale of Haiti in 2010 or even Turkey and Greece at the late '90s where buildings collapsed in seconds.

Re:Even 2-5 minutes would help

[sentientbeing]

The general safety instruction is make sure youre in a basement during tornados and flying at 10,000 feet for earthquakes.

Dont mix the two.