California Going Ahead With Bullet Train

An anonymous reader sends this excerpt from the NY Times: "[California state leaders] have rallied around a plan to build a 520-mile high-speed rail line from Los Angeles to San Francisco, cutting the trip from a six-hour drive to a train ride of two hours and 38 minutes. And they are doing it in the face of what might seem like insurmountable political and fiscal obstacles. The pro-train constituency has not been derailed by a state report this month that found the cost of the bullet train tripling to $98 billion for a project that would not be finished until 2033, by news that Republicans in Congress are close to eliminating federal high-speed rail financing this year, by opposition from California farmers and landowners upset about tracks tearing through their communities or by questions about how much the state or private businesses will be able to contribute."

Comments

Re:The bond measure was for $98 billion

[Michael O-P]

The bond measure was never for $98 billion. It was for about $10 billion out of allegedly $40 billion. I do not know where you got your facts. Source: http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_1A,_High-Speed_Rail_Act_(2008)

Re:The bond measure was for $98 billion

[PopeRatzo]

it's no wonder that California is a fiscal crises.

It could have a little something with Californians voting on propositions to put caps on their taxes.

Seriously, it's like telling people who are filling out their tax returns, "Just pay whatever you want".

Of course, they still demand all the services.

Plus, Californians send a lot more money to Washington in Federal taxes than they get back. Somebody's got to pay for the "Texas Miracle" after all. All those government jobs Rick Perry created don't come free.

Have to look at the alternatives

[telso]

Yes, high speed rail is going to be expensive. Yes, it's now projected to cost much more than the original estimate. (The cost has largely increased due to delays (the longer it takes to build a project, the more it costs), particularly fuelled by NIMBY appeasement ("We don't want the train passing near our house!" "But it is much quieter than standard trains and will increase your property values by being near an HSR station." "Build a tunnel!" "Okay, we'll build a tunnel." "The costs on this project are ballooning!").)

But you have to compare the cost to the alternatives. California's freeways and airports are jammed. With increasing population and mobility, something to move people around will have to be built. And the estimated costs to add volume to airports and highways is estimated to be $100-billion as well.

And, to top it off, high speed rail runs on an operational profit. (This means that yearly revenues are higher than yearly costs.) Everywhere. Yes, high speed rail lines run an operational profit in Japan and France, Spain, Russia, Taiwan and car-loving-and-train-hating America. In Britain all rail is private, and for-profit companies are in fierce competition to pay for the rights to run rail services, which are barely at HSR levels if at all. It's a strongly held misconception that rail travel is unprofitable: HSR makes a profit all over the world, and it usually subsidizes local and regional rail transport (which the US has much of).

And though only the Tokyo-Osaka and Paris-Lyon line have paid off all their construction costs, that's because they're the oldest HSR lines; others are on track to in the future. Which modes of transportation don't pay off their construction costs? Oh, that's right, nearly all roads. Remember Carmageddon/The Carpocalypse, when an overpass outside LA was torn down, shutting traffic for the weekend? That was all so they could widen the highway through a mountain pass. Were the anti-HSR people asking for ridership studies for the Sepulveda Pass? Were they asking for the expansion to run an operational profit, let alone an overall profit? Of course not; only rail is subjected to such standards.

Add to this that a train is much more efficient in transporting this number of people, from an energy, environmental and economic perspective, and this is using studies that are assuming that gas prices will be relatively stable over the next few decades.

Obviously there still has to be overview of the project, making sure money is being spent efficiently and for best value. But the entire transportation sector needs to be looked at from this viewpoint. Airlines can work with rail to transport their passengers on their "last mile", freeing up their planes for more profitable medium- and long-haul routes, like done in Germany (Frankfurt Airport has two train stations). Road funds can be diverted to repairing our existing infrastructure as opposed to building more asphalt that needs to be maintained. And everyone will get to where they are going sooner. If this is done, North America will look back 20 years from now, not wondering "How could they do this?", but instead "How did they wait so long?"

Re:Oy Vey!

[cervesaebraciator]

Passenger rail doesn't make much money, but there is an unhappy reason for this. Folks on the political right often like to point to rail as one of the grand failures of government. What they do not recognize is that one of the reasons passenger rail doesn't make money in this country is because the highway system is so heavily subsidized. The failure of rail isn't an example of fair competition, it is an example of a heavily lobbied government choosing one form of transportation at the cost of either choice or market requirements. Consider this:

The director of the American Conservative Center for Public Transportation, William S. Lind, agrees that America’s love affair with subsidized interstates made private passenger rail unviable. Lind points out that even in 1921 the federal government spent $1.4 billion on highways, and by 1960 the outlay was $11.5 billion. By 2006, 47,000 miles of interstates had been built at a cost of $425 billion.

When critics of passenger-rail subsidies, such as Randal O’Toole of the Cato Institute, suggest that the highway costs are mostly covered by the gas tax, Lind counters with figures from a 2008 Federal Highway Administration paper: the FHA reports that highway user fees, including gas taxes, only cover 51 percent of costs. By contrast, Amtrak in 2010 covered 67 percent of its operating costs from ticket fares and other revenue.

"A Nation Derailed", Lewis McCrary

The above quote was written by a conservative arguing for rail. Your "Damn those liberals and their lying propaganda!" line is, I'm afraid, very often accurate. It is sad that so many on the right are so ready to defend the federal highway systems and automobiles against all other alternatives. Certainly, there are many things to recommend cars and good highways, but currently the funding of these systems is a subsidy for corporations who rely on externalizing the cost (on taxpayers) of long distance transportation, e.g. Wal-Mart, to the detriment of local businesses and small competitors. I call this sad because conservatives, and on this account I will accept the appellation myself, claim to favor traditional patterns of life and to be skeptical of the kind of federal subsidies which support business models which might otherwise fail. The loss of rail and the rise of cars was a blow to small town civic life. Thereafter, the bypass ("It's a bypass. You've got to build bypasses!") and the big box stores, always by externalizing their costs and frequently with the help of imminent domain laws, further eroded civic life and economy.

Re:MORE airport subsidies?

[LynnwoodRooster]

Really? You mean the structure where trains get 40X the subsidies of airplanes? And cars are a net INCOME for transit (not subsidized)? How much more should we subsidize trains?

Re:Time

[sourcerror]

Sorry, 500+ mph (804 km/h) is ridiculous. Bullet trains go around 190 mph. Even maglev trains max out at 361 mph. (And don't talk about how much they cost per mile.)

Re:The TSA will ruin this.

[AHuxley]

http://www.gadling.com/2011/03/09/amtrak-police-chief-to-tsa-stay-off-our-property/
The TSA did try the train "Your papers ... " thing via Visible Intermodal Protection and Response.
US rail operators did talk about the searches ... after they saw what was been done on their station.
http://cs.trains.com/TRCCS/forums/p/188504/2059127.aspx

Re:Time

[AmiMoJo]

It makes an interesting comparison with Japan's new high speed maglev track. It is scheduled to be running by 2025 at over 500Kph. The terrain is difficult and there are major issues with noise pollution that increase the cost, but when it comes to buying land they realised that it is often cheaper to just elevate the track. Less disruption and no need for dangerous crossings.

Elevated track also makes it easier to keep the whole thing level when you would otherwise have to do a lot of digging to flatten the ground below normal track out. IIRC the spec for Shinkansen (bullet train) track is something like no more than 6mm height variation over 10m.

Re:The bond measure was for $98 billion

[Anonymous Coward]

You are correct... The Prop 1A only accounted for California's contribution. The $98-99 billion represent the "new" projection for the TOTAL project. The original $37-40 billion price tag was based upon the CHSRA original 2005 cost projections. It took pressure from the California legislature demanding new cost projections to force the CHSRA to admit to a $98-99 billion price tag in 2011 reality. The fact that California is "fiscally challenged" and Washington is not in the spending mood, make the HSR project a questionable proposition (albeit, not dead).

It is a misconception that the increase in the cost estimate was due to delays. Not true - two independent business school studies projected a much higher price tag quite a while ago. There is some truth to the NIMBY effect. However, there is no evidence to support the argument that property values will increase near the HSR. And, contrary to one of the other posters, the CHSRA has told more than one city, that it (CHSRA) would NOT fund any tunnels. So, that higher price tag has little to do with "tunnels".

Re:Time

[BasilBrush]

Union Station and Transbay Terminal look to be right in the centre of LA and SF respectively.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cahsr_map.svg

Train rides: Comfortable and you get work done

[SD-Arcadia]

I'm surprised no one brought it up but the comfort level of a west european train ride is amazing. You get leg room, you get a tabletop in front of you that is nothing like the plastic pos on a plane. You can walk about, visit the toilet and go get a meal whenever you feel like it. You get plugs and often internet for your laptops. If it's an overnight ride you can get a sleeper. A well organized train ride basically means the travel time is not wasted at all, in some sense rendering the journey free as in time. You actually can continue living on the train, with rest, food and work available. How does that compare to being stuffed in economy class or wasting away behind a wheel?