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Research Data: Share Early, Share Often

Shipud writes "Holland was recently in the news when a psychology professor in Tilburg University was found to have committed large-scale fraud over several years. Now, another Dutch psychologist is suggesting a way to avert these sort of problems, namely by 'sharing early and sharing often,' since fraud may start with small indiscretions due to career-related pressure to publish. In Wilchert's study, he requested raw data from the authors of some 49 papers. He found that the authors' reluctance to share data was associated with 'more errors in the reporting of statistical results and with relatively weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis). The documented errors are arguably the tip of the iceberg of potential errors and biases in statistical analyses and the reporting of statistical results. It is rather disconcerting that roughly 50% of published papers in psychology contain reporting errors and that the unwillingness to share data was most pronounced when the errors concerned statistical significance.'"

138 comments

  1. Psychology by oldhack · · Score: 0, Troll

    What did you expect?

    --
    Fuck systemd. Fuck Redhat. Fuck Soylent, too. Wait, scratch the last one.
    1. Re:Psychology by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Thats how climategate started !!

    2. Re:Psychology by rgbatduke · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And continues. Phil Jones, for example, has stonewalled requests for the raw data used to e.g. create HadCRUT3 etc, although recently it seems that one reason he hasn't shared it is that he lost it and literally can't share it. So we have a rather important temperature series, openly available on the web and used by many, many climate researchers and nobody can reconstruct it, including the original author. The problem continues -- it is like pulling teeth, getting members of the hockey team to share data and/or methods so anyone can check them.

      Since the few times somebody has bulled through until they've succeeded, e.g. Steve Mcintyre vs Michael Mann, what has been discovered is that the published result (the infamous MBH "hockey stick") is nothing but amplified, distorted white noise that has absolutely no correlation with the data used to produce it, let alone skill at reconstructing actual past temperatures, it doesn't bode well for the discipline.

      I've recently written a guest article on WUWT calling for data/methods transparency in climate research. By transparent, I mean that you should not be allowed to publish a paper that could potentially influence lawmakers and public policy to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars unless you simultaneously publish all contributory raw data (including any data you for any reason left out) and the actual computer code used to process it into figures and conclusions. Something this important needs full open source open data transparency even more than medical research (another discipline where reproducibility of results is abysmal, where there are vested interests galore, and where we spend/waste a phenomenal amount of both money and human morbidity and mortality on crap results.

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    3. Re:Psychology by sstamps · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And continues. Phil Jones, for example, has stonewalled requests for the raw data used to e.g. create HadCRUT3 etc, although recently it seems that one reason he hasn't shared it is that he lost it and literally can't share it.

      That is complete and utter bullshit.

      First, he has never stonewalled requests for the raw data. It's been out there for ANYONE to obtain. The problem is that, for some of it, you have to PAY to get it, and UEA was forbidden by contract to give away said data for free because then people wouldn't PAY for it anymore. So, if you want to piss and moan about access to the raw data, then apply your angst and woe to the most responsible parties, the Met offices which want to profit from their weather data-gathering businesses.

      Second, the "lost data" canard is a crock. Since the raw data is not owned or generated by UEA, but instead obtained from outside sources, they have NO mandate to keep the original raw data once they have processed it. They (and you and anyone else) can go and get it from the same sources at any time. Whip out your checkbook and get to it.

      So we have a rather important temperature series, openly available on the web and used by many, many climate researchers and nobody can reconstruct it, including the original author. The problem continues -- it is like pulling teeth, getting members of the hockey team to share data and/or methods so anyone can check them.

      You (and they) most certainly can get the original raw data and reconstruct it. There are literally mountains of data that have been released to the public on a large part of climate science. You just need to learn who and how to ask properly and, in some cases, how much it costs.

      Here's a huge FREE repository of all kinds of climate-related data, from the climate scientists themselves.

      Since the few times somebody has bulled through until they've succeeded, e.g. Steve Mcintyre vs Michael Mann, what has been discovered is that the published result (the infamous MBH "hockey stick") is nothing but amplified, distorted white noise that has absolutely no correlation with the data used to produce it, let alone skill at reconstructing actual past temperatures, it doesn't bode well for the discipline.

      Mann's work has been vindicated and replicated time and time again, McIntyre's (and others') quixotic attempts to discredit it notwithstanding.

      I've recently written a guest article on WUWT..

      That explains the ignorance of your previous comments a bit.

      ..calling for data/methods transparency in climate research. By transparent, I mean that you should not be allowed to publish a paper that could potentially influence lawmakers and public policy to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars unless you simultaneously publish all contributory raw data (including any data you for any reason left out) and the actual computer code used to process it into figures and conclusions. Something this important needs full open source open data transparency even more than medical research (another discipline where reproducibility of results is abysmal, where there are vested interests galore, and where we spend/waste a phenomenal amount of both money and human morbidity and mortality on crap results.

      In large part, this is precisely what happens, with a few exceptions. Those exceptions usually revolve around whether any kinda of contracts with private entities to obtain said data, or to develop software/hardware, are in effect that would preclude giving them away. That said, the research should (and usually does) document the specifications for said hardware/software, and include where the original data came from for anyone to pay to obtain it themselves.

      As a software developer who actually writes software for scienti

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
    4. Re:Psychology by mrcaseyj · · Score: 1, Informative

      sstamps wrote:
      >First, he has never stonewalled requests for the raw data. It's been out there for ANYONE to obtain. The problem is that, for some of it, you have to PAY to get it, and UEA was forbidden by contract to give away said data for free...

      No. Those who requested the data requested that if all the data couldn't be provided, then the freely available data should be provided. They were refused. When asked for a list of what data was used, but not the data itself, they refused. Even if the data is available for free on the net, how can the results be replicated if they will not say which data was used?

      >Mann's work has been vindicated and replicated time and time again...

      It has only been replicated by his buddies. It's like a study by an oil company being replicated by another oil company. There can be no vindication for trying to "hide the decline". It is a well established rule of science that you don't leave out data that casts doubt on your conclusion.

      You've fallen for their story. Many of us used to think the alarmists were good willed, and we assumed they were honest. I still think they are good willed, but we now know they are not honest. They hide important information that casts doubt on their theories. And worse, when their colleagues are caught doing corrupt science, their community maintains a code of silence or defends the indefensible. This casts doubt on all the evidence brought by the entire climate science community.

    5. Re:Psychology by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Second, the "lost data" canard is a crock. Since the raw data is not owned or generated by UEA, but instead obtained from outside sources, they have NO mandate to keep the original raw data once they have processed it. They (and you and anyone else) can go and get it from the same sources at any time.

      If there's a risk that they'd be charged again if they go and get it from the same sources, they're fools to delete it. And even if there isn't, it's common sense to hang onto your raw data in case you find a bug in your tools and want to reprocess it from scratch.

    6. Re:Psychology by rgbatduke · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Hmmm, you really do need to read the climategate 2 letters, don't you.

      From message 4241.txt, a communication from Rob Wilson to Ed Cook (and others):

      I first generated 1000 random time-series in Excel – I did not try and approximate the persistence structure in tree-ring data. The autocorrelation therefore of the time-series was close to zero, although it did vary between each time-series. Playing around therefore with the AR persistent structure of these time-series would make a difference. However, as these series are generally random white noise processes, I thought this would be a conservative test of any potential bias.

      I then screened the time-series against NH mean annual temperatures and retained those series that correlated at the 90% C.L.

      48 series passed this screening process.

      Using three different methods, I developed a NH temperature reconstruction from these data:

      1. simple mean of all 48 series after they had been normalised to their common period

      2. Stepwise multiple regression

      3. Principle component regression using a stepwise selection process.

      The results are attached.

      Interestingly, the averaging method produced the best results, although for each method there is a linear trend in the model residuals – perhaps an end-effect problem of over-fitting.

      The reconstructions clearly show a ‘hockey-stick’ trend. I guess this is precisely the phenomenon that Macintyre has been going on about.


      Surely this vindicates Mann -- by proving that it does indeed turn white noise into hockey sticks! Not only is Mann wrong, but the hockey team knows it perfectly well! There are letters where people openly lament being involved with the hockey stick type reconstructions (and other places, e.g. where they "hid the decline" in tree ring data) because they are terrible science and because they are openly worried that sooner or later people will catch on. As indeed they have, although they have won the PR war (another great Mann quote) to such an extent that even though they themselves know that the hockey stick is bogus and that white noise fit according to Mann's cherrypicking methodology will produce nothing but hockey sticks, it just won't die, will it? Thanks to people like you!

      We could review the specific Climategate 2 letters where Jones talks about deliberately trying not to give away data to the people who requested it (something I would call "stonewalling", except that the circumstance in question is a FOIA request that was only a missed deadline away from being "a crime" upon the release of the CG emails), or about the points where it turns out that he does a lousy job of keeping records (problems with Excel spreadsheets) and no longer can reproduce his own results because he doesn't know what data he used, if you like.

      Or we could look at the many, many other places where internal communications show that the hockey team is well aware of many problems with their own results and consistently choose not to let the general public know about them lest we be led to doubt their conclusion. Then we could read Feynman's lovely article on "Cargo Cult Science": http://www.lhup.edu/~DSIMANEK/cargocul.htm. See how close you think the hockey team comes to Feynman's fairly modest standard for good, honest science, while reading Mann going on about the importance of winning the PR war, getting journal editors fired, and generally doing his very best to eliminate all challenge to his papers, or, if he can't manage that, eliminating the challengers themselves.

      But really, read them yourself. Don't accept what people tell you about them, read them! Then tell me that this is honest science, well done.

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    7. Re:Psychology by sstamps · · Score: 5, Informative

      No. Those who requested the data requested that if all the data couldn't be provided, then the freely available data should be provided. They were refused.

      Bzzt. Wrong. Try again.

      30.First, in answer to the question of whether the raw data are accessible and verifiable, Professor Jones told us that:
      The simple answer is yes, most of the same basic data are available in the United States in something called the Global Historical Climatology Network. They have been downloadable there for a number of years so people have been able to take the data, do whatever method of assessment of the quality of the data and derive their own gridded product and compare that with other workers.

      31.In addition, of course, there are the sources of the data, the weather stations, to which any individual is free to go and collect the data in the same way that CRU did. This is feasible because the list of stations that CRU used was published in 2008.

      41. Professor Jones contested these claims. According to him, “The methods are published in the scientific papers; they are relatively simple and there is nothing that is rocket science in them”. He also noted: “We have made all the adjustments we have made to the data available in these reports; they are 25 years old now”. He added that the programme that produced the global temperature average had been available from the Met Office since December 2009.

      51. Even if the data that CRU used were not publicly available—which they mostly are—or the methods not published—which they have been—its published results would still be credible: the results from CRU agree with those drawn from other international data sets; in other words, the analyses have been repeated and the conclusions have been verified.

      When asked for a list of what data was used, but not the data itself, they refused. Even if the data is available for free on the net, how can the results be replicated if they will not say which data was used?

      Jones PERSONALLY refused. The information about what data was used has been available since the original papers and research were performed! IT'S IN THE RESEARCH, DURRRR. Have you ever read any of it?

      It has only been replicated by his buddies.

      Bzzt! Wrong. Try again.

      BEST was funded by the Koch brothers, owners of a giant oil/petrochemical company. Most DEFINITELY NOT "buddies" with Mann. Even still, being "buddies" in science doesn't mean diddly-squat; it's not about WHO you know, but WHAT you know, and HOW WELL you know it. So far, Mann's work has been REPEATEDLY vindicated.

      There can be no vindication for trying to "hide the decline".

      Ya know, for a minute there, I thought you might be trying to be genuinely serious and skeptical. Then you trot THAT out. /facepalm

      It is a well established rule of science that you don't leave out data that casts doubt on your conclusion.

      You are correct, it is, and the vast majority of climate scientists and their research faithfully follow that rule, no matter how many intellectually dishonest, ignorant, and gullible idiots falling for charlatans and snake oil salesmen lke Watts, Michaels, Singer, et cetera ad nauseum, try to spin otherwise.

      You've fallen for their story.

      No, I've fallen for the FACTS of the matter. I've done my homework; I've looked beyond anyone's story; what's YOUR excuse?

      Many of us used to think the alarmists were good willed, and we assumed they were honest. I still think they are good

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
    8. Re:Psychology by sstamps · · Score: 1

      There is likely no risk; it is a digital data product, so it is licensed, and they probably pay a subscription fee so they can get any of the data (including more current data) at any time.

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
    9. Re:Psychology by mrcaseyj · · Score: 1

      sstamps wrote:

      sstamps wrote:

      First, he has NEVER stonewalled requests for the raw data. [emphasis added]

      the list of stations that CRU used was published in 2008

      the programme that produced the global temperature average had been available from the Met Office since December 2009.

      So you admit that they stonewalled on the station list till 2008? And you admit that they didn't release their software until after they had been exposed by the climate gate email release? I may not have been clear, but I didn't mean to imply that they still haven't released stuff, but only that they were stonewalling at one time.

      Jones PERSONALLY refused. The information about what data was used has been available since the original papers and research were performed! IT'S IN THE RESEARCH

      Strange. Why didn't he just give the URL for the files instead of refusing. But of course you've quoted a source admitting he didn't release the station list till 2008. So it doesn't look like it was "IN THE RESEARCH".

      mrcaseyj wrote:

      It has only been replicated by his buddies.

      You cite BEST as replication by some other than buddies, but I was referring to replication of the hockey stick. BEST did not replicate the hockey stick. Furthermore, BEST was lead by an alarmist, so that is not clearly replication by other than buddies.

      sstamps wrote:

      when they are caught in their lies and ignorance, they NEVER, and I mean *NEVER* admit fault and accept what they were wrong about.

      Anthony Watts admitted after his own study that the average temperature trend of the urban stations was no higher than the good rural stations. Of course he then minimized it and tried to make a seemingly insignificant issue of the difference between the trends in the diurnal temperature range. I see tons of ignorance on the skeptic side. The alarmist side actually seems to be much more grounded in facts. But now we're seeing that the alarmist facts may not be as solid as was once thought. And you simply dismissed my criticism of the attempt to "hide the decline", but you gave no reasoned defense. That is understandable given it appears to be indefensible.

      I know how it sometimes seems hard to believe that your opponents can be so unreasonable. It starts to look like they are not being honest. Some oil company shills probably aren't. But I fully believe that there are many skeptics, even ones that have looked deeply into the evidence, who truly do not believe there is cause for alarm. You probably know that people can have an amazing ability to convince themselves of something. Some people also find it very painful to admit they were wrong, even to themselves. Unless the evidence against them is massively undeniable, they will not change their mind. And often, even if the evidence IS massively undeniable, they will not admit it. This cuts both ways of course. Back when we didn't know how much hiding was going on, many people adopted a conclusion, and are very reluctant to admit a mistake. It's especially hard for them to back off their conclusion because the evidence against the alarmist case is nowhere near overwhelming.

      I don't think it matters anyway, because if the alarmists turn out to be right, there are a variety of relatively inexpensive ways to shade the planet and reliably bring the temperature under control. The really bad worst case scenarios are of negligible likelihood. It is impossible with available funds, and not an optimum allocation of resources, to spend trillions of dollars to prevent every disaster for which there is a tiny possibility. Those funds would probably be better spent preventing wars, plagues, cancer, poverty, or other things.

    10. Re:Psychology by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Surely this vindicates Mann -- by proving that it does indeed turn white noise into hockey sticks! Not only is Mann wrong, but the hockey team knows it perfectly well!

      No. It says that if you pull from 1000 samples of white noise the 48 (

    11. Re:Psychology by sstamps · · Score: 1

      Hmmm, you really do need to read the climategate 2 letters, don't you.

      While I would have liked to have skipped the 2-year-old leftover turkey, alas, it just wasn't to be, so I've allllready been there, thanks.

      From message 4241.txt, a communication from Rob Wilson to Ed Cook (and others):

      I think it is telling where you decided to cut it off. Let's continue with the REST of the message from the point you chopped it:

      It is certainly worrying, but I do not think that it is a problem so long as one screens
      against LOCAL temperature data and not large scale temperature where trend dominates the correlation.

      I guess this over-fitting issue will be relevant to studies that rely more on trend
      coherence rather than inter-annual coherence. It would be interesting to do a similar
      analysis against the NAO or PDO indices. However, I should work on other things.

      The funny part is, EVEN WITH McIntyre's/McKittrick's correction in 2003 (which he WAS credited for, by the way) and in 2005, the difference had no significant impact on the results, given the same data.

      Surely this vindicates Mann -- by proving that it does indeed turn white noise into hockey sticks!

      Yes! It shows that improperly applying a statistical modeling technique will give you bad results! That said, MBH98 avoids doing just that. Amazing, isn't it?

      Not only is Mann wrong,

      Which you've yet to provide any evidence of, but let's continue..

      but the hockey team knows it perfectly well!

      Are you expecting me to take you seriously after that? Really? O.o
      Well, better make sure your tinfoil hat is on straight for the rest of this response, then.

      There are letters where people openly lament being involved with the hockey stick type reconstructions

      Actually, no one in that tranche ever laments "being involved with hockey-stick type reconstructions", nor specifically with MBH98. They lament being involved with certain OTHER reconstructions (which is clear if you actually, you know, read the email threads, but I digress). Even still, scientists disagree during the scientific process. If you asked those same scientists now, what do you think they'd say? With few exceptions, they admit they were wrong, and support the mainstream research. Go figure, eh? Gotta be a conspiracy, or maybe the Team's coach knows how to run a tight ship. (and other places, e.g. where they "hid the decline" in tree ring data)

      Oh, please, give that BS a rest, already. ZOMG! HE USED A TRICK TO HIDE THE DECLINE!!! WTF?!?!
      Bollocks, pure and simple.

      because they are terrible science and because they are openly worried that sooner or later people will catch on. As indeed they have, although they have won the PR war (another great Mann quote) to such an extent that even though they themselves know that the hockey stick is bogus and that white noise fit according to Mann's cherrypicking methodology will produce nothing but hockey sticks, it just won't die, will it?

      I know.. they are so terrible at it; it must be just pure, dumb luck that they are right, and being vindicated by EVERY RESPECTED BODY OF INQUIRY that has scrutinized them, let alone the continually mounting evidence and research that rolls in year after year.

      Thanks to people like you!

      Why, thank you! I would love to take all the credit, but I really should share it with "The Team". :D

      We could review the specific Climategate 2 letters where Jones talks about deliberately trying not to give away data to the people who requested it (something I would call "stonewalling", except that the circumstance in question is a FOIA request that was only a miss

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
    12. Re:Psychology by sstamps · · Score: 2, Informative

      So you admit that they stonewalled on the station list till 2008? And you admit that they didn't release their software until after they had been exposed by the climate gate email release? I may not have been clear, but I didn't mean to imply that they still haven't released stuff, but only that they were stonewalling at one time.

      Do you know what a "station list" is? It's a list of weather stations all over the world. It's not exactly a secret, ya know. He didn't stonewall on releasing anything that wasn't already accessible by the public. You get a list of all the Meteorological offices across the world, and you ask them for their list of stations. Some may require you to PAY for that information. What's so super seekrit squirrel about that?

      They didn't release their software until they had PERMISSION to do so. I bet you also didn't know that some weather station data is STILL not published to this day. You have to get it from the MOs who SELL it, if you want a copy.

      If they have proprietary info that they CAN NOT release, by contract, no amount of whining about "stonewalling" is going to change a damn thing about that. Get over it.

      Strange. Why didn't he just give the URL for the files instead of refusing. But of course you've quoted a source admitting he didn't release the station list till 2008. So it doesn't look like it was "IN THE RESEARCH".

      Because..he..didn't..have..rights..to..release..the..data. What part of this is unclear? The SOURCES (the MOs) of the data WERE in the research. He said that much in the report.

      You cite BEST as replication by some other than buddies, but I was referring to replication of the hockey stick. BEST did not replicate the hockey stick. Furthermore, BEST was lead by an alarmist, so that is not clearly replication by other than buddies.

      No, BEST does not do paleoclimate reconstruction, but the "blade" of the "stick", which is what many deniers actively dispute about it anyway, matches with a high degree of confidence to the BEST results.

      Also, Richard Muller and Judith Curry are HARDLY "alarmist", considering Muller sided with McIntyre and McKittrick over the MBH98 reconstruction. He still voices opposition to it, but he's no longer doubting the temperature record, and where it is heading. Curry has been dissenting against the "mainstream" climate take on purely social grounds for a while now.

      Anthony Watts admitted after his own study that the average temperature trend of the urban stations was no higher than the good rural stations. Of course he then minimized it and tried to make a seemingly insignificant issue of the difference between the trends in the diurnal temperature range.

      Anthony Watts doesn't admit he's wrong about squat. In that dodge, he avoided any fallout from any admission of fault. It wasn't "mea culpa, I was wrong, maybe I should rethink things a bit", it was more like "meh.. even if I was wrong, it doesn't matter anyway; AGW STILL IS WRONG!!!!1!1!!oneoneone!1".

      I see tons of ignorance on the skeptic side. The alarmist side actually seems to be much more grounded in facts.

      That's nice of you to say, but...

      But now we're seeing that the alarmist facts may not be as solid as was once thought.

      Such as? Got the data? Research?

      And you simply dismissed my criticism of the attempt to "hide the decline", but you gave no reasoned defense.

      That's because it is an irrational and stupid canard that has had the snot beaten out of it so much that I can't see how anyone can STILL use it with a straight face.

      OK, if you insist. Reasoned defense: You DO understand the context of that comment, right? Here, this video will 'splain things.

      That is understandable given it appears to be indefensible.

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
    13. Re:Psychology by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Umm.... it is now well established that Mann and Jones have been hiding data. The places you cite are all climate shills pumping out propaganda. For the avoidance of error, let us be clear what the original issue was.

      Some tree-ring data was used in an attempt to show that the world's temperature had remained pretty static until recently, when it had shot up. This is known as the 'hockey-stick' assertion, and is a major plank of the argument that mankind has caused global warming by increasing CO2 emissions recently.

      It is important to know which items of data, from where, were used in constructing this graph. Not EVERY tree-ring series was used. The choice is obviously important, because it has to be done in an unbiased way. Some scientists asked for information about which of the many tree-ring series were used, which parts of these were used, and how the choices were made, so they could examine the selection criteria.

      Jones said that all the tree-ring data was freely available on the web. This is true, but it was not what was asked for. What was needed was data on the way parts of this data were chosen. To this day Jones has refused to reveal the details of which items were used and how they were chosen, and continues to claim, as do all the propaganda outlets, that because all the data is freely available he has fulfilled all freedom-of-information requirements.

      In fact, this whole episode has now been overtaken by events. Since the Earth has started cooling it has become apparent that the hockey-stick assertion is just plain wrong, and whatever the process for choosing the tree-rings was, it must have been in error. However, as an example of deceit in science it is still a major issue....

       

    14. Re:Psychology by sstamps · · Score: 1

      Umm.... it is now well established that Mann and Jones have been hiding data.

      No, they haven't. You cannot produce a shred of REAL evidence to back up that claim.

      The places you cite are all climate shills pumping out propaganda.

      No, they are outlets for the research and data, some of which are run by the scientists themselves in an attempt to disarm the constant noise and bullshit from REAL "shills pumping out propaganda", like icecap, climateaudit, WUWT, etc.

      For the avoidance of error, let us be clear what the original issue was. Some tree-ring data was used in an attempt to show that the world's temperature had remained pretty static until recently, when it had shot up. This is known as the 'hockey-stick' assertion, and is a major plank of the argument that mankind has caused global warming by increasing CO2 emissions recently.

      It is important to know which items of data, from where, were used in constructing this graph. Not EVERY tree-ring series was used. The choice is obviously important, because it has to be done in an unbiased way.

      That "some tree-ring data" was only a very small portion of the overall data used to build paleoclimate reconstructions. Others included ocean/lake sediments, ice cores, coral growth, cave depsits, fossils, borehole temps, and glacier length records, to name a few. Taken together, they all converge on an average which is represented well by the so-called "hockey-stick" graph.

      MBH98 is only one of a number of research papers from that time which showed anomalous warming in the latter half of the 20th century; it just happened to be singled-out by opponents because of its presentation and robustness.

      Some scientists asked for information about which of the many tree-ring series were used, which parts of these were used, and how the choices were made, so they could examine the selection criteria.

      Jones said that all the tree-ring data was freely available on the web. This is true, but it was not what was asked for. What was needed was data on the way parts of this data were chosen. To this day Jones has refused to reveal the details of which items were used and how they were chosen, and continues to claim, as do all the propaganda outlets, that because all the data is freely available he has fulfilled all freedom-of-information requirements.

      You must be referring to Mann, as Jones does not do dendrochronology. Jones works with actual meteorological temperature records. It sounds like you're conflating the two. Mann's research specifies the tree ring data selection criteria used and sources for said data (I presume you've, you know, actually READ MBH98, right?). Mann's claims that the data and methods to process it were made available are borne out by the fact that McIntyre and McKittrick were able to perform their analyses of his work. So the claim that Mann has not fulfilled his obligations as a scientist to provide ALL of the data and tools surrounding his research are bogus.

      At this point, I would say "nice try", but it's actually a pretty pathetic effort; you're just rehashing the same tired old shit that's been beaten down countless times. That's what your denier masters want, though. They want (and you apparently buy into it) it to be repeated endlessly on the premise that if you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it. Except we won't, and we'll keep pointing it out as a lie in front of everyone, to your and your masters' eternal shame (which we know you don't have any).

      SOME of Jones' temperature data was not made available because UEA was under contractual obligations not to release it. That said, it was available to anyone who wanted it, as the Met Offices don't discriminate who they sell it to. You have to sign a contract saying you won't disseminate it, of course.

      In fact, this whole episode has now been overtaken by events. Since the Earth has started

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
  2. More Errors in the Reporting of Statistical result by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    "It is rather disconcerting that roughly 50% of published papers in psychology contain reporting errors"

    How many errors are present in this statement? Just saying.

  3. You Mean... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    "Trust me I'm a scientist" isn't good enough anymore?

    1. Re:You Mean... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      Did you know that you can just BUY labcoats?

    2. Re:You Mean... by jc42 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "Trust me I'm a scientist" isn't good enough anymore?

      Actually, in a very real sense, it never was. The story here is that those that were unwilling to let outsiders (i.e., independent researchers) study their data had a significant error rate. But this has generally been understood by scientists; it's why normal scientific procedure encourages getting second opinions from others outside the group.

      If you doesn't want us seeing your data, that will normally be taken as a sign that you know or suspect that there are problems with your data. Attempts to block independent researchers from replicating the experiments or data collection (which is one of the main uses of patent law) is generally taken as an open admission that there's something wrong with your data.

      "Trust me I'm a scientist" may sometimes work with the general public, but it really hasn't ever worked with scientists. A real scientist reacts to interesting scientific news with "Further research is needed", and applies for funding to carry out the research.

      --
      Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
    3. Re:You Mean... by Trepidity · · Score: 3, Informative

      A lot of these errors have been found in neuroscience journals, too, which fancies itself a harder science...

    4. Re:You Mean... by rgbatduke · · Score: 1

      Not biological psychology/neurophysiology. Not even all social psychology. The work on cognitive dissonance, for example, is pretty amazing and reproducible and explains so very much...

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    5. Re:You Mean... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ++

      Isn't it time we stopped pretending that a bunch of folks who couldn't conduct a controlled, double-blind study if their life depended on it are "scientists"?

      Psychology is no more a science than homoepathy, phrenology or spirit-healing.

    6. Re:You Mean... by Eil · · Score: 2

      Psychology isn't a science. It's a pseudoscience.

      Hey, there's a scientologist in our midst!

      So if psychology isn't a science, then classical conditioning doesn't exist, despite the huge volume of evidence that says it does? There's no value in trying to understand how human reasoning and memory works? We can't learn anything at all about how brain damage causes changes in day-to-day behavior?

      Fact: Anything researched and studied according to the scientific method is science. That there are some researchers who draw conclusions without appropriate methods or sufficient evidence, or that some areas are difficult to conclusively test does not cast the entire profession as pseudoscience.

    7. Re:You Mean... by BlueScreenO'Life · · Score: 2

      Psychology is a vast field, and some claimed psychology teachings are indeed bullshit. For good examples of non-bullshit psychology, read Richard Wiseman's Quirkology and other works by Wiseman.

    8. Re:You Mean... by jimmerz28 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Your "fact" is utterly incorrect. Psychology isn't a science like math, physics, chemistry, biology and computer science are sciences.

      A science has laws with verifiable, reproducible outcomes that can be proven (psychology has theories of behavior, not laws). Look at Jung vs. Freud for a great example of why there are no laws of psychology, neither of them is wrong but neither of them is right doesn't make a science.

      Descartes used research and studied according to a scientific method to prove there was such a thing as a "mind", that didn't make him correct or the "science" of the mind an actual science.

    9. Re:You Mean... by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      I'd say it's more of a protoscience than a pseudoscience.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    10. Re:You Mean... by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      Well, child psychologist have come to a consensus that classical conditioning doesn't exist. Just look at the huge body of works that claim making a child uncomfortable will not discourage the activity that makes them uncomfortable.

    11. Re:You Mean... by king+neckbeard · · Score: 3

      The difference between a theory and a law isn't how verifiable a law is, but that theories attempt to explain why and laws do not. There is no explanation of why certain things happen in math and physics, so we have lots of laws in it. However, biology is far more abstract from fundamental truths of the universe, so it tends to have theories, since what is tested has explanations. Psychology is even more abstract, and thus would be even further down that line.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    12. Re:You Mean... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      After all the bullshit about "EVOLUTION IS JUST A THEORY LALALALALA", are you seriously dismissing a branch of science because it only has *theories* about how the world works? The process of science is the process of constructing and verifying theories. The defining feature of actually doing science is often being neither wrong nor right; in the science of physics, Newton's laws are a prime example of just that.

      And are you seriously pointing to Jung and Freud as "a great example" of anything at all? No degree in Experimental Psychology worth more than the paper it is printed on will even mention either of them outside of a historical context. Their contribution to modern psychology and cognitive neuroscience is vanishingly small, besides justifying the actions of people who want to take money off you.

    13. Re:You Mean... by jc42 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      A lot of these errors have been found in neuroscience journals, too, which fancies itself a harder science...

      Actually, this is mostly a special case of a problem that's recognized in most scientific fields: Much scientific work (experimental or observational) has a statistical component, and scientists generally don't have as good an understanding of statistics as their work requires.

      Statistics shares a common problem with other basic subject such as quantum theory, relativity, and chaos theory: They don't fit well with human "intuitive" concepts of how the world works. With quantum theory and relativity, this is fairly blatant, and people usually don't try to pretend to understand them until they've done some serious study. But with statistics (and chaos ;-), people tend to think they have at least a basic understanding of probability, and they also tend to think that that's all they need. They end up publishing data on the basis of output from packaged software that they don't understand well.

      A while back, there was a discussion in a linguistic forum that I follow, about the Pirahã language which lacks words for numbers. As a way of explaining how people could survive without numbers, one contributor came up with an informative parallel: In the modern Western world, there are many important things (economics and climate are hot-topic examples) that can't be understood without an understanding of the important concepts of statistics. But one can easily argue that the dominant "modern" languages lack words for statistical concepts.

      Nearly everyone will object that, for instance, English has well-known terms like "chance", "probability", "mean", "standard deviation", "correlation", etc. But, the author pointed out, these are "cargo-cult" terms, borrowed from an alien (i.e., scientific) language, with little or no actual understanding of their meanings by most of the native speakers of English. This is clear if you look for statistical terms in the English media, and figure out how they're being used. They are just magical terms used to sound convincing, but it's usually clear that the speaker/write doesn't actually understand their technical meaning. Similarly, "quantum" is a common English word, but it's common meaning is very nearly an antonym of the technical meaning in physics. Most English speakers have little or no understanding of the technical meanings of these terms

      In the case of statistical terms, scientists do tend to have taken a course or two in college. But understanding is low, barely above the common understanding used in the media and politics. So it's not surprising that a good number of papers in many scientific fields claim results that don't strictly follow from the data. If there is any sampling done to get the data (and there usually is), it's likely that the conclusions came partly from an interpretation of some software's output that is based on a misunderstanding of the statistical terminology.

      Of course, when you get to the pseudo-sciences and the political arena, this process isn't accidental. Statistical buzz-words are often used as part of the psychological weaponry, to convince readers/listeners of whatever the writer/speaker is trying to convince them of. This is often done with malice aforethought, knowing that the public has almost no understanding of statistics.

      --
      Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
    14. Re:You Mean... by jimmerz28 · · Score: 1

      Not sure where the tautology of the first sentence was supposed to go...I simply pointed out that when your field is filled with theories and does not contain any laws (which allow you to make verifiable claims) then your field is not a science.

      It's a pseudoscience.

      Similar to a pseudo-question, which is a question without an answer or for which any answer serves (e.g. "Where are your thoughts?" Descartes

      It looks like a question because it's imperative in form, but it is not a proper question. Just like psychology looks like a science in form, but is not.

      Questions have verifiable answers, just like sciences have verifiable postulates (laws).

    15. Re:You Mean... by jimmerz28 · · Score: 1

      And by "imperative" I meant "interrogative".

    16. Re:You Mean... by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      The first sentence was to address the common misconception that laws are more scientific or require more evidence than theories.

      So, are you claiming that evolutionary biology is a pseudoscience? Really, I'm hard pressed to think of any laws that exist in biology at all, although I won't claim that there are none. However, I'm quite certain that you could have a biology class that is completely absent of those laws if they exist.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    17. Re:You Mean... by lennier · · Score: 1

      The work on cognitive dissonance, for example, is pretty amazing and reproducible and explains so very much...

      That contradicts what I already think, so I don't believe your statement.

      --
      You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
    18. Re:You Mean... by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      No science has laws, except in the sense of very well-confirmed theories. Many sciences do not have reproducible outcomes (astronomers, for example, have to take what observations they can get, and can't crash more galaxies together to replicate the Bullet Cluster experiment.) The core of any science is forming theories and figuring out how to get observations to disprove them, and psychology does that.

      Neither Freud nor Jung were scientists; what they did is much closer to philosophy of mind, and they attempted to help people largely through philosophical ideas reduced to practice. I don't know that either of them would have recognized a scientific experiment if it bit them on the butts. What they did was a necessary prelude to the science, but it wasn't science. You might as well claim that the study of atoms can't be science because Democritus was a philosopher and not a scientist

      Now, if you care to study any psychological research, you'll find that people are throwing out hypotheses and constructing experiments to support or disprove them. The hypotheses are a lot less impressive than Freud's or Jung's ideas, but they have the virtue of being based on science. There's plenty of scientific psychology going around.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    19. Re:You Mean... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is no explanation of why certain things happen in math and physics, so we have lots of laws in it.

      There are no laws in mathematics. Only theorems whose truth depends solely on which set of axioms you accept. Also with regards to biology and psychology if by abstract you mean removed frome the underlying principles of the universe then you are correct. However abstact is a poor choice of adjective because the "fundamental truths of the universe" are actually far more abstract than anything you will find in either of those sciences. Biology and psychology are actually applied sciences.

    20. Re:You Mean... by ioshhdflwuegfh · · Score: 1

      The difference between a theory and a law isn't how verifiable a law is, but that theories attempt to explain why and laws do not. There is no explanation of why certain things happen in math and physics, so we have lots of laws in it. However, biology is far more abstract from fundamental truths of the universe, so it tends to have theories, since what is tested has explanations. Psychology is even more abstract, and thus would be even further down that line.

      Abstraction in sciences is generally understood as a way of simplifying things--physics and chemistry are more abstract than biology and psychology because they employ simpler concept like particles, forces, atoms compared to cells or emotions. You conflate explanation, theory and law, with result being a sort of typical soft vs hard science confusion (also when you say "further down that line" What line?)

    21. Re:You Mean... by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      Abstraction is probably not the best way of putting it. As another replier put it, biology and psychology being more on the applied side is probably a better description.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    22. Re:You Mean... by jimmerz28 · · Score: 1

      I don't know what "more scientific" is or means.

      Theories are like saying "i believe" whereas a law is saying "i know".

      If all you can do in your branch of "science" is believe then you are not a science. It's pretty simple, yet a subtle difference.

      I could have a theoretical physics class, but that doesn't make physics not a science. So I'm not seeing how that example works.

    23. Re:You Mean... by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

      No, the difference between a theory and a law is a theory contains an explanation of why, while a law does not. Good scientists generally wouldn't have the arrogance to claim to know something, because our understanding of a subject may change greatly over time.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
  4. And Get Screwed by Better Funded Competitors by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    EOM

  5. So who is going to pay for the costs? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It'll need money to store and make available and staff to manage.

    So who is going to accept an increase in taxes to allow this to happen?

    1. Re:So who is going to pay for the costs? by rgbatduke · · Score: 2

      Are you kidding? What's the cost of storage on a webserver, per byte? Would that be "zero" compared to the size of any reasonable dataset in the discipline? It would. You could put up a single e.g. 10 TB server in a single lab for a few thousand dollars and it would cost a few hundred dollars a year to run and would handle all the data associated with all the publications in psychology in a decade.

      What is expensive and wastes taxes is bozos who do crap research, publish the crap results, hide the crap data and crap methods, and are cited repeatedly in other people's work, a circle of error and corruption that often lasts for years before it is finally discovered and weeded out. We pay for that work already; we need to make people accountable for it by requiring data/methods transparency (if you are e.g. not privately funded). That way the bozos would have research careers that are either over instantly or they'd get so sharply corrected by their peers that they'd wake up and do things right.

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    2. Re:So who is going to pay for the costs? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      My dissertation research data set is pushing half a terabyte, plus another half or so of transformed data in intermediate form. Mind you I'm in neuro, and we're a pretty data-driven lab. If you're curious, it's mostly confocal stacks, neuron recordings (each experiment is usually several hours, multiple channels, and sampled at 20kHz or more), integrator output, parameter-space vector data from optimizations, etc. Some of this *can* be regenerated from smaller seed data sets ... if you have access to a decent cluster and a LOT of free time on your hands, so we can't exactly dump it. Keep in mind, I'm ONE guy at a lab which has been doing this sort of work for decades. There's tons of data on other computers, on blu-ray and DVD and CD, DAT tape, various proprietary backup tape formats, and even a lot of old chart recorder scrolls.

      A lot of psych labs are doing fMRI studies now and god knows how many gigabytes of data you get out of a day's worth of work with those. Some are working with computational models and by the time you finish exploring the dynamics of your parameter space and getting your fitter to work you can fill up a drive or two. Some work with video of experimental animals (which some bored undergrad sits around watching and counting the number of times the rat went in a circle) ... those can use up a lot of space too.

      We do make our data available to anyone who asks, and increasingly try to do so online, but storage is a nontrivial problem. So is indexing. Your assumptions that you could "handle all the data associated with all the publications in psychology in a decade" on 10TB just show how woefully ignorant you are of how science these days works.

    3. Re:So who is going to pay for the costs? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I invoke Sturgeon's Law: "90% of everything is crap". The problem is you don't generally now how crappy it is until after the fact. If you knew ahead of time what was going to be crap and what wasn't you wouldn't need to do the research in the first place.

  6. Science is like any other job/craft in that... by Urthas · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...most people who do it are downright bad at it. That they might take more time and care to be good at it without the perpetual axe of publish-publish-publish and grants funding hanging over their heads is another issue all together.

    1. Re:Science is like any other job/craft in that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So factors secondary to the actual production of scientific results, directly influence how and when those results should be released, and or interpreted.

      Sounds less like science and more like every Corporate, Government, higher education, and Public sector office space in existence.

      Pure science, for it's own sake, is devoid of these factors and exists only in a black box. Heisenberg was on to more than just physics!

  7. Lie or Die by Chemisor · · Score: 1, Interesting

    It is very difficult to make a man understand something when his job depends on not understanding it. If psychology research were made to adhere to any kind of stringent scientific standard, there would be no psychology research.

    1. Re:Lie or Die by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Funny

      It is very difficult to make a man understand something when his job depends on not understanding it. If psychology research were made to adhere to any kind of stringent scientific standard, there would be no psychology research.

      Sounds like you have some issues with authority. Would you like to discuss it?

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    2. Re:Lie or Die by Droog57 · · Score: 1

      Psychology is NOT science, see what Richard Feynman, a somewhat intelligent guy had this to say on the subject.. " I would offer that very good minds can practice psychology, people with deep experience and wisdom and understanding. Psychology obviously has value to many, many people, and also makes deep metaphysical arguments about the world and our understanding of it, yet, its just not a science." Feynman's assesses psychology as a cargo cult science, "(It) follows all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but they're missing something ..."

      --
      "If the only tool that you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail." Donny Rumsfeld
    3. Re:Lie or Die by Toonol · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I wonder if we just haven't quite mastered the techniques necessary to deal scientifically with highly complex systems. Psychology, economics, climatology, etc., all are theoretically understandable, but are so chaotic that our standard scientific methodology can't be applied... you can't, for instance, repeat an experiment. You can't isolate one changing variable.

    4. Re:Lie or Die by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're confusing psychology with counseling and the pseudoscientific models thereof.

      Attempting to plumb the depths of a person's psyche to fix something is counseling. That's not science. Neither is attributing those depths to his relationshp with his mother.

      Demonstrating (to use a tangible example of a colleague) that one form of pain has quantitative, statistically significant, and reproducible impact on the threshold of perception of another form of pain is psychology. That's science.

    5. Re:Lie or Die by rgbatduke · · Score: 1

      Only if he can discuss it in properly controlled, double blind circumstances. For example, he can wait in a room until a man in a white lab coat enters to discuss it with him. Outside, the researcher can flip a coin to determine whether the individual in the lab coat is an actual psychologist or is a plumber or taxi cab driver. Afterwards he can be ordered to perform a really nasty task, such is cleaning up the urinals in a public restroom with a toothbrush, to determine whether or not he still has issues with authority,

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    6. Re:Lie or Die by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sorry, but you're an intellectual bigot who resorts to citing well-known celebrities rather than actually researching what the content of a field actually is and making a principled argument. Unfortunately, your bigotry is only ameliorated by its ubiquity in communities such as Slashdot.

      A number of points need to be made:

      First, most people have a stereotyped idea of what psychology is, because they don't actually know what it is. It's the scientific study of human behavior and experience. If you think it's couches and Freud, you're uninformed. My guess is that Feynman took psychology courses and had his primary exposure to the field during the mid-20th century, when psychoanalysis was dominant in *one branch of psychology*, and isn't even dominant in that area anymore. Psychologists study molecular neurobiology, multivariate statistics, neurophysiology, immunology, and any other number of topics. Be prepared to argue that those fields aren't science (or math) if you're prepared to argue that psychology isn't a science.

      Second, it's worth noting that this fraud case (and the way the story is framed) focuses on psychology, but similar problems happen in other fields. E.g.:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controversy_over_the_discovery_of_Haumea
      http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Wellness/chronic-fatigue-researcher-jailed-controversy/story?id=15076224

      Finally, what would you propose to do instead? Study human behavior and experience nonscientifically? That's what you seem to be suggesting.

    7. Re:Lie or Die by wintercolby · · Score: 1

      Afterwards he can be ordered to perform a really nasty task, such is cleaning up the urinals in a public restroom with a toothbrush...

      It's not actually really nasty until he has to brush his teeth with said toothbrush afterwards.

      --
      Most ignorance is vincible ignorance. We don't know because we don't want to know. --Aldous Huxley
    8. Re:Lie or Die by Droog57 · · Score: 1

      Awright!! a good, well reasoned argument form someone with a vocabulary. However. I would suggest that the definition of a Science does not include Psychology, in which experimentation does not produce results that can be DISPROVED. I would also suggest that many branches of Medicine fall into the same category. That is why an MD has a "practice". Possibly drug testing may fall into the Science category, but not the Practice of Psychology. It's an ART, not a SCIENCE. Call me a stickler for details, but people that have a vested interest in promoting their chosen profession as a "Science" have included many crackpots over the years, and the Mental Health field is not exactly a beacon of integrity.

      --
      "If the only tool that you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail." Donny Rumsfeld
    9. Re:Lie or Die by Eil · · Score: 1

      Head back to Wikipedia for a bit... Feynman was not talking about all of psychology, but mostly parapsychology. Reading minds, bending keys, that kind of thing. He was also speaking in a time where non-religious (or loosely religious) mysticism was fairly common and even mainstream compared to today. Psychology is a much different field nowadays than it was almost 40 years ago.

    10. Re:Lie or Die by rgbatduke · · Score: 1

      Good, good, science in progress! We'll add that to the authoritative command!

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    11. Re:Lie or Die by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why on earth does ignorant crap like this get modded up? Are people really *that* ignorant about statistics and science?

      Just as in any other field, the fact that you can't control all variables doesn't invalidate the process, it just means you have to be cautious in your experimental design and your analysis. But people repeat psychology experiments all the time. Hell, even you can do it if you like: count how many times your and your friends' dogs salivate when you ring a bell, condition them to associate the bell with food, then repeat the trial, and use an appropriate test to compare paired values. Have you controlled all your variables? No. Have you established that conditioning probably works? Yes. Is it science? Definitely.

    12. Re:Lie or Die by DriedClexler · · Score: 1

      It is very difficult to make a man understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.

      Could you post the psychological research backing up this claim?

      --
      Information theory is life. The rest is just the KL divergence.
    13. Re:Lie or Die by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're confusing psychology with counseling. Pavlov's conditioning experiments on dogs were science. A shrink trying to fix someone's daddy issues is counseling. It can be *studied* as a science when a particular method for dealing with daddy issues is compared against a control method using matched or randomly assigned patients and therapists.

      You are also woefully ignorant of the fact that no science offers proof or disproof of anything, just a statistical confidence as to whether a model fits the data or not.

    14. Re:Lie or Die by m50d · · Score: 1

      First, most people have a stereotyped idea of what psychology is, because they don't actually know what it is. It's the scientific study of human behavior and experience. If you think it's couches and Freud, you're uninformed. My guess is that Feynman took psychology courses and had his primary exposure to the field during the mid-20th century, when psychoanalysis was dominant in *one branch of psychology*, and isn't even dominant in that area anymore.

      Freud and his descendants are still taught, even in top-flight universities. It's possible to approach psychology scientifically, and much good (and surprising) research has been done - but it's also still very possible to call yourself a psychologist and teach the subject without even a basic understanding of the scientific method.

      --
      I am trolling
    15. Re:Lie or Die by professionalfurryele · · Score: 1

      Intellectual bigot or not, the GP has a point. That Freud was ever considered a valid contributor to the field is a big fat black mark against psychology and the fact that introductory courses still mention his name with any purpose other than to ridicule his stupid, foolhardy, unscientific perspective is another.

      Psychology is permeated by poor statistics (I read the journals), a poor understanding of experimental design and generally poor methodologies. Sure they make use of molecular neurobiology, multivariate statistics, etc. but many practising psychologists haven't a sweet bloody clue about those things in depth, especially when it comes to the stats. Are there practising genuine scientists in psychology, sure. Some fine, fine scientific work is done in the field, especially at the interface to neuroscience. Are far, far, far too many engaged in cargo cult science. Abso-fucking-lutely. Pick out 20 last authors and give them a test on the stats in their last paper if you don't believe that.

      Psychology is in dire need of about 40% of the material being cut from the core curriculum and replaced by computational neuroscience courses, statistics and other hard scientific material to fill in all the half baked chaff that still gets taught as though it was worth a damn when the so called pioneers like Freud and Jung were spouting bullshit.

    16. Re:Lie or Die by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have a HUGE issue with authority, with respect to scientific investigations.

      The theory that lies behind science does NOT respect authority. It respects data and findings which can be reproduced. If I, who am not highly skilled in relativistic maths, make a discovery which disproves Einstein's theory, the proper scientific attitude would be that Einstein is disproven - not that some young upstart with no training or relevant qualification MUST be wrong.

      I might expect that my discovery would be subject to extensive testing. But Einstein would certainly state (and actually did) that science depends on objective testable truth - NOT authoritative statements...

    17. Re:Lie or Die by Thugthrasher · · Score: 1

      I have a HUGE issue with authority, with respect to scientific investigations.

      The theory that lies behind science does NOT respect authority. It respects data and findings which can be reproduced. If I, who am not highly skilled in relativistic maths, make a discovery which disproves Einstein's theory, the proper scientific attitude would be that Einstein is disproven - not that some young upstart with no training or relevant qualification MUST be wrong.

      I might expect that my discovery would be subject to extensive testing. But Einstein would certainly state (and actually did) that science depends on objective testable truth - NOT authoritative statements...

      Actually, the proper scientific attitude would be "some young upstart with no training or relevant qualification is PROBABLY wrong, but if his logic looks sound, we'll need to check his work."
      If you make a discovery that disproves Einstein's theory, chances are that you made a mistake since you are not highly skilled in relativistic maths. However, if your premise is sound, then, yes, your work should be checked to see if you actually did make a discovery.
      But chances are, again, that you didn't.

      The main problem is that many people won't listen to your logic without those credentials. But I can't blame them TOO much because, honestly, most amateur physicists aren't going to have enough of an understanding to even wrap their heads around the subject, much less disprove major theories that those with a more complete understanding haven't been able to disprove.

  8. A better way by Hentes · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Don't believe anything that hasn't been verified by an independent group of researchers.

    1. Re:A better way by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      Just don't believe anything.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  9. Sometimes its not an unwillingness... by DBCubix · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I do research in textual web mining and from time to time I have other researchers ask me for my collections which I spider myself from copyrighted web sources. While my work is purely academic, I am covered by fair use. But since US intellectual property laws are obtuse and overbearing (imho), I cannot take the risk of sharing my collections with others for fear of running afoul of copyright law (since I can't control what is done with the collection once it is out of my hands and how do I know they would use it in a manner consistent with fair use). So it may be more than an unwillingness out of statistical fudging and more an unwillingness to become a target of copyright lawyers.

    --
    I called it a mighty Sperm Whale, she called it Finding Nemo.
    1. Re:Sometimes its not an unwillingness... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From the linked article:
      (Note that sometimes lack of data sharing is due to legitimate considerations, such as being part of an ongoing study, or third-party proprietary rights. However, those were not considerations in 49 papers analyzed here.)

    2. Re:Sometimes its not an unwillingness... by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2

      I do research in textual web mining and from time to time I have other researchers ask me for my collections which I spider myself from copyrighted web sources. While my work is purely academic, I am covered by fair use. But since US intellectual property laws are obtuse and overbearing (imho), I cannot take the risk of sharing my collections with others for fear of running afoul of copyright law (since I can't control what is done with the collection once it is out of my hands and how do I know they would use it in a manner consistent with fair use). So it may be more than an unwillingness out of statistical fudging and more an unwillingness to become a target of copyright lawyers.

      Why would that be an issue? The onus would be on the people you share the data with it do keep it in the fair use domain. An analogy would be a professor quoting some copyrighted text in a syllabus and then saying she couldn't give a copy of the syllabus to another professor (or student) because she can't control what they do with it.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  10. How do you prevent scooping? by svendsen · · Score: 4, Insightful

    One reason scientist's don't share is because if the data gets out early and gets around (damn slutty data) is that other scientist's might steal/copy/scope/whatever the data. Unless there is a great way to prevent this the suggestion proposed here will never go anywhere.

    1. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      If you publish the data with the paper then that isn't a problem. If you want to publish the paper before you've finished analysing the data, that looks like a bigger cause for concern than someone else stealing the data.

    2. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe set your ego aside and let science progress at the speed that it wants to.

    3. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Other scientists typically inquire for data after publication of the findings. (How else would someone know what to ask for?) This suggestion only stresses that error-checking be encouraged after the current process of publication.
      Note that this error checking (after attempts to reproduce findings failed) is what led to Gordon Gallup identifying Marc Hauser's recently-acknowledged academic fraud.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Hauser#Previous_controversy_over_an_experiment

    4. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Problem is, there is currently no reward for "sharing data" (especially non raw data) there are rewards for "publishing", "being cited", "getting grants" etc. So, if we let our data out and be prevented from publishing by people who are quicker to publish but had no effort in collecting the data, we will get fired / not get promoted / not get tenure / etc.

      IMO, there should be separate rewards for publishing good hypotheses, good data, and good analyses, and let people do and be rewarded for what they do best.

    5. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's lovely. Then you perish in the publish or perish world, as everyone else just has to use that data you spent months obtaining, and gets all the benefit from your hard work. Whilst you were getting the data they were publishing off some other poor sod, and at the end of the day you've got 1 pub to their 5 and no hope of a job.

      If you want good science, stop demanding quantity over quality. Sure, quality is harder to measure, but until you get rid of the publish like crazy mentality you just won't see good work.

    6. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you publish the data with the paper then that isn't a problem. If you want to publish the paper before you've finished analysing the data, that looks like a bigger cause for concern than someone else stealing the data.

      It seems you never considered that someone might want to publish more than one paper about a single data set.

    7. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by sustik · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And I believe that they should not have the "right" to publish without others trying as well. Yes, having a topic and milking it for the rest of your life sounds a wet dream, but it is not in the interest of the society, so why would that approach be encouraged/protected?

      So publish your paper and disclose the data. Others after you will reference your work, in fact even those who *just* use the data and otherwise have not much common with your ideas will still have to cite your paper. Sounds great to me. Also remove the quantity thinking in publishing. One paper in 5 years that will be referenced for 50 years coming is way better that 10 papers in 5 years that are reshuffling of the same and instantly forgotten.

      I would replace the publish or perish with: be cited or perish.

      In fact, too many publications can be taken as warning signs that:
      1. There is little new material, but a lot of reuse of text.
      2. The paper is not carefully written and so it is not understood by the field and so the same gets republished over and over.
      3. Corners were cut regarding the experiments or methods, or reviewing related work etc. to save time.

      Of course there are exceptions and just because someone publishes a lot they do not necessarily guilty of the above.

    8. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by sustik · · Score: 2

      I understand what you are saying. But consider: where does the publish or perish demand come from?

      It seems it is perpetuated by academia itself to a great extent. A lot of them got pretty got at the game and it is easier than writing really good papers. People in academia should promote and use "be cited or perish" instead (if a rigid measure is needed).

    9. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Toonol · · Score: 2

      Whilst you were getting the data they were publishing off some other poor sod, and at the end of the day you've got 1 pub to their 5 and no hope of a job.

      The problem there isn't with the science, or sharing data; both are good. The problem is with the inane and counterproductive prestige game that science has become. Counting publications is a moronic method of measuring ability. Generating and making available a good data set is often times MORE important than publishing a particular paper.

    10. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Rostin · · Score: 1

      The speed that it wants to? You realize that science doesn't do itself, right? Ego has always been one of the chief reasons that human beings, who are to a man petty and selfish, do science. The Royal Society invented many practices like peer review that we now consider to be necessary components of the scientific process. One of the reasons that it established Philosophical Transactions, which was the very first modern scientific journal, was to resolve disputes about who did what first. If you were to somehow remove ego from the equation, I think we'd have very few working scientists. There just aren't that many people sufficiently motivated by pure altruism to do it for very long without recognition.

    11. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by rgbatduke · · Score: 1

      You mean, a way like "requiring the authors to put their data and numerical methods up on a website no later than the date of publication of the paper"?

      Unless their competitors are good at time travel, that seems as though it might be enough...

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    12. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That just leads to citation farming, which is already ridiculous (try to get a paper through peer review without having 10 extra citations being 'helpfully' given by a reviewer). Or publications only in popular areas where you're guaranteed a lot of cross-citation, rather than neglected areas which might be fruitful.

      Publish or perish comes from the funding agencies, not academia. It comes because they have no solid metric for science so they grab the easiest numbers they can - publication counts. I don't know anyone in research who thinks it's a good thing, it's certainly NOT coming from within.

    13. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In radio astronomy, the way we deal with it is this: when you use a telescope at a public observatory, the data are yours to analyse and publish for 12-18 months. After that, the data are released to the public by the observatory, so anyone else can check your work.

    14. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by sustik · · Score: 1

      I am fortunate that in my field I did not have to add "extra" citations. But, I have heard about the practice and it is a serious problem along with the fact that many papers simply use references from other papers without checking them first. I still think that citations are better (if rigid measure is needed). And obviously any attempt of a measure that does not account for differences between the fields will have to be flawed.

      I also understand the pressure from funding agencies. However, tenure and promotion decisions are made within academia. I guess, too many key players cave in to the outside pressures, and hail the money bringers. While I do not expect academia to solve all the problems, I do expect academia to internally address this issue and at least talk about it. For example, regarding abuse of citations: a separate review of the references could help (and for such a review you do not need the same level expertise as for the content); maybe an anonymous tipline regarding citation farming could also be implemented. (One could set it up even in the presence of double blind reviews so that a statistics of complaints against a reviewer can be gathered without identifying the papers reviewed. Too many complaints in a given period and the reviewer is simply dropped, but no other consequence.) Etc.

    15. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by tsa · · Score: 1

      Please no, we don't need any more overview papers from scientists who are not good enough to come with something new every once in a while.

      --

      -- Cheers!

    16. Re:How do you prevent scooping? by tsa · · Score: 1

      Science wants to set its own pace as much as information wants to be free.

      --

      -- Cheers!

  11. Re:Fantastic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As much as I am skeptical of the feedback methods for their models, they seem pretty open with the data now.

  12. What is this "share early, share often"? by Scareduck · · Score: 1, Insightful

    The IPCC doesn't know about this. Or does this only apply to the "soft sciences"?

    --

    Dog is my co-pilot.

    1. Re:What is this "share early, share often"? by hexghost · · Score: 3, Informative

      What? The IPCC was just collecting already published data, there was no 'new' studies done.

      Careful - your bias is shining through.

    2. Re:What is this "share early, share often"? by rgbatduke · · Score: 1

      No, the IPCC doesn't collect data, they collect published results from data that remains occult even now. Indeed, Phil Jones appears to have lost the raw data out of which e.g. HadCRUT3 was built. Not only is it impossible for anyone else to check his methods or reproduce his results from raw data, he can't reproduce his results from raw data.

      Doesn't matter to the IPCC or anybody else that uses that data.

      Look up the history of e.g. Steve Mcintyre's efforts to get actual data and methods out of any of the hockey team. Look up the comments in Climategate 2 emails where they conspire to deliberately hide it, even from FOIA requests. That's the true basis of the cooked (up) data used by the IPCC and hence by all the governments of the world to make decisions involving tens to hundreds of billions of dollars now, trillions of dollars over the next few decades.

      Transparency of data and methods should be legally mandated for any publicly funded published result used in any sort of political process involving the expenditure of vast amounts of taxpayer money.

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    3. Re:What is this "share early, share often"? by Arker · · Score: 1

      What? The IPCC was just collecting already published data, there was no 'new' studies done.

      That's a very weak dodge. Metaresearch doesnt get some magical exemption from scientific procedure. Whether you are going out and collecting raw data to start with, or importing the results of a dozen earlier studies and going from there, all information necessary to replicate your results must be made openly available for replication or else you simply are not doing science.

      --
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      Friends don't let friends enable ecmascript.
  13. very expensive in medicine by peter303 · · Score: 1

    The so-called "4th-stage clinical trial" is to study patients after the drug is released to the public. There may be thousands of times more patients than the first three stages. But is can cost eight figures to finish stage 3.

  14. mixed policy in space sciences by peter303 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Some probes like Mars Rovers, Cassini, SOHO post their data on the web within days. Others like kepler and ESA-Express have posted very little of their data. The tradition is for Principal Investigators to embargo the data one year.

  15. Very Meta by Kamiza+Ikioi · · Score: 1

    Psychologist's statistical study suggesting that psychologists have possible psychological issues with sharing their psychological studies... perhaps this warrants a further psychological study of said psychologists?

    --
    I8-D
  16. Incentives and disincentives by br00tus · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Einstein was unable to find a teaching post, and was working in a patent office when he published his annus mirabilis papers. Things have changed over the years though. John Dewey discovered a century ago how children best learned - let the child direct his own learning, and have an adult to facilitate this. This, of course, is not how children are taught. Things nowadays are very test-heavy, and becoming even more so, not as a means to help students in seeing what their deficiencies are, but as a punishment system - and the teachers, and the administrators are under the same punishment system. The carrot of reward is very vague and ill-defined and far-off. It is a system designed to try to squelch the curiosity of those handful of students who had been curious and wanted to learn. Businesses want to get into the education gravy train, and all this charter school stuff is being embraced by both parties, which isn't surprising if you look at the funding behind it.

    At the university, the financial incentives are all aligned so that publishing is a necessity. If one does not publish, they do not get tenure, and then all those years of work were for naught as the academic career is over. And what gets published? An average series of experiments done by the scientific method would usually lead to either inconclusive data and results, or just wind up in a dead end. And what journal wants to publish those results after months of work? One of the most popular Phd comics is this one. It seems fairly obvious to me - the more financial incentives are tied to getting published, the more that bogus studies are going to be published. As far as the idea of honesty, integrity or whatever, these things will gradually subside for most people when they come into conflict with keeping a roof over one's head and food on the table.

  17. An Anecdote to Back This Up by eldavojohn · · Score: 3

    ...most people who do it are downright bad at it. That they might take more time and care to be good at it without the perpetual axe of publish-publish-publish and grants funding hanging over their heads is another issue all together.

    I agree and I can think of something to illustrate your point.

    I was listening to a This American Life episode a few weeks back and there was a story done on two people -- one a music professor and the other a respected oncologist -- who were investigating a long defunct theory that certain electromagnetic wavelengths can kill cancer cells and only cancer cells leaving healthy cells completely fine. When left to run the test, the music professor failed to maintain the control correctly and many other things. But after being corrected by the respected researcher they started getting positive sets of preliminary results. The respected researcher requested that the music professor not share this with anyone and not to attach his name to it just yet.

    Well, the music professor did not follow this advice because he was so excited about the preliminary results and had, I guess, sort of felt like the respected researcher had short changed him and suppressed him. What the music professor wanted to do was blow the lid off this thing with possibly flawed data and sent it to other oncologists with the original researcher's name attached to it -- possibly misrepresenting it as flawed data. Now I can see why a researcher might fly off the handle when data is released extremely early. They were having problems recreating their own findings (with sham-control) which caused the original researcher to want to keep this very much out of the public's eye. You might claim he was just trying to save himself embarrassment but there's nothing embarrassing about finding out your hypothesis is wrong in science, I just think the best researchers avoid these "failures" and the subsequent investment of resources into them.

    I think that scientists figure out how to create the most data and separate the wheat from the shaft in a very lengthy (think decades) long process whereas the first sign of a breakthrough might cause more inexperienced researchers to show the world. And the reason, as you mentioned, is probably the immediate funding they can get with it. But I think it badly neuters scientific news, the reward system and even the direction that research takes. But to release and share early on and often might just make everyone look bad when the whole background of the data is unknown to someone who receives it.

    --
    My work here is dung.
    1. Re:An Anecdote to Back This Up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It is wheat from the chaff.. not shaft...

    2. Re:An Anecdote to Back This Up by CrackedButter · · Score: 1

      That was a good episode, I felt sorry for the scientist.

    3. Re:An Anecdote to Back This Up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who's the black private dick who's a sex machine to all the chicks? Chaff, John Chaff.

      That cat Chaff is a bad mother... Shut your mouth! I'm just talkin' 'bout Chaff.

  18. Implementation is the problem by macwhizkid · · Score: 2

    Ultimately, everyone agrees that open sharing of research data funded by the taxpayers would be A Good Thing(TM). The problem is: how do you persuade people to actually do it. Much how things like advanced safety features on cars, free college tuition, and taxes on big banks sound like great ideas, until you look at what it will actually cost to implement. Not just "cost" in terms of money for infrastructure development, data storage, and support, but in terms of persuading an entire culture to change their workflow.

    In our lab, we already spend an extraordinary amount of time on administrative tasks only indirectly related to our research. Adding in a mandatory data sharing task and fielding questions from random people who wanted to use it would be a serious additional chore. Then there's the embarrassment aspect... we actually had a project a couple months ago where there was another group doing an experiment that we wanted to do, and they had software already written. So we thought, "great, we'll just ask them for the code". So we fired off an email... and after a couple weeks we finally got a reply to the effect of "this is actually my first program, and I don't feel comfortable sharing it." So we had to spend 2-3 months writing our own version to do exactly the same thing.

    1. Re:Implementation is the problem by Trepidity · · Score: 2

      In the latter case, I think sometimes this is actually for the best. Even though it results in redundant coding, that's one form of replication. If everyone reused the same code written by one grad student long ago and never rewrote it (and the grad student's first program, no less!), there would be a lot of reliance that that program does what it says it does, and does it correctly in all cases. Sure, you could run test cases, read through the code carefully, even try to formally verify it, but in my experience nobody does any of that: if another lab sends you a hairy pile of Fortran or Perl scripts or whatever, the common case is that you try to figure it out only to the extent of figuring out how to run it.

    2. Re:Implementation is the problem by rgbatduke · · Score: 1

      All true, so perhaps we should add a line or two limiting the scope of the rule, then make it law. If your research data is being used as the basis for major political policy decisions and the spending of unlimited amounts of taxpayer money (e.g. climate research) the public's need outweighs your own inconvenience or embarrassment. Cost we can ignore. Note well that in most enterprises putting data/methods up on a website should be almost free -- who doesn't have websites? Who cannot use archive/comression tools like gzip, tar, zip? Preserving a snapshot of data and methods is already a part of responsible research; a law here would just be a matter of mandating that the publication archival snapshot be made public. If you don't have one, well, that's a problem that suggests that you aren't very professional, maybe not professional enough to deserve funding since you wouldn't necessarily be able to reproduce you own published results without it, could you?

      The law should apply to medical research and certain other scientific venues where huge amounts of money or public trust or political decisioning are on the line. Not so much a legal mandate for people studying poison dart frogs in the rain forest canopy, although even for them it should be the expected standard of practice if you are non-privately funded. Anybody doing science should be archiving and/or maintaining a revision history of their work for themselves, and making an archival snap available that matches any actual accepted publication should be cheap, easy, and is the right thing to do.

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    3. Re:Implementation is the problem by david_thornley · · Score: 2

      So you say that different rules would apply to research in areas that politicians have gotten interested in, because the public needs more. In that case, the public should be prepared to pay more, since there's a need. After all, the government could take my house because they need to build a bypass there, but they'd have to pay me for it. Public need; public cost.

      Therefore, what you want to propose is that, in selected areas of research, money be automatically allocated for a data librarian's services. (Personally, I'd advocate adding money for a statistician as well, to keep an eye on inferences. For critical research, we really do want to know what the statistical significance is, and I have little confidence in the statistical ability of the average scientist.) The data librarian would be responsible for making the data conveniently accessible at the end of the project, possibly delayed for a period of time to allow the scientists an opportunity to get another paper out of that data. The data would then be on a publicly financed website.

      That's probably better than looking for a gzip'ed tarball on a personal webpage somewhere, particularly when the tarball has mostly incomprehensible directory and file names, which is what you'll get if you make a scientist jump through hoops for political reasons.

      In addition, the data librarian would be responsible for resolving all copyright issues, one way or another.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  19. No way... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In my field this won't work - you share either on conferences or via a paper. Most researchers also only share on conferences when they have the corresponding manuscript more or less accepted. It's just too risky and expensive to get scooped.

    1. Re:No way... by thedonger · · Score: 1

      Sounds like paleo. My wife's lab is always covering up bones and such when people visit because apparently in that field you can publish based solely on what you remember seeing at someone else's university. Maybe, the more imaginary the discipline, the more likely that shenanigans comes into play? So, psychology, paleontology, string theory...

      --
      Help fight poverty: Punch a poor person.
    2. Re:No way... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not paleo but protein crystallography / structural biology. You either find the right condition to get your protein crystallized and publish the structure together with the condition or you publish nothing, as you don't have anything to publish. You don't wont to give competitors an edge since finding the right condition (if there exists one at all) can sometimes take a lot of resources and time.

  20. NSF requires sharing already by Steavis · · Score: 4, Informative

    The NSF is now requiring this as part of grant applications. You have to have a data management plan that includes the public deposit of both the data and results from grant funded work. Other funding orgs are following suit.

    This is a fairly major project at the university I work for, both from the in-process data management perspective (keeping field researchers from storing their only copies on thumbdrives and laptops) and from the long-term repository perspective for holding the data when the grant is completed (that's what I'm involved with).

    Storage is cheap. Convincing university administrators to pay for keeping it accessible is another problem, but the NSF position is helping.

    --
    If Star Trek had the internet: Captain, we've received an IM from the romulans. "Surrender or be destroyed. LOL. o.O"
    1. Re:NSF requires sharing already by rgbatduke · · Score: 1

      And this is the way everybody should be doing it, including work funded by NIH, NOAA, DOE, EPA, DOD (well, not all of the DOD work, but some of it). It should be legally mandated for all granting agencies, especially agencies that fund research that is critical to public policy decisions, decisions on the spending of large amounts of tax money, human life and well being, or technological advances that belong in the public domain because (after all) the public paid for them.

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
  21. What's the Incentive? by dcollins · · Score: 1

    Surely people aren't just going to turn over the means to get themselves charged with fraud out of the goodness of their hearts. Somehow this has to be made mandatory by the institutions or the publications that they hope to present their work (as suggested in the second linked article; and as I understand some of the top medical journals do nowadays).

    --
    We know where leadership by an anti-intellectual "strongman" who scapegoats minorities and likes boisterous rallies goes
    1. Re:What's the Incentive? by Toonol · · Score: 1

      Surely people aren't just going to turn over the means to get themselves charged with fraud out of the goodness of their hearts.

      Well, maybe the scientists that aren't committing fraud will be happy to share their data... then, that small percentage of scientists that refuse to will be shamed and/or ignored.

  22. Careful, YOUR bias is shining through by Quila · · Score: 1

    Regardless of where the data was from and what agreements covered its release, the stated purpose of the people in the emails was to keep the data out of the hands of their opponents regardless of open freedom of information requests, and Phil Jones himself said he would be "hiding behind" the agreements in order to keep the data from being released. There was quite literally a conspiracy not only to avoid normal scientific sharing of information, but legal freedom of information requests.

    As scientists, they should be discredited and shamed.

    As public employees, they should be fired or put in jail.

  23. Hiding correlates positively with... by retroworks · · Score: 1

    Having something to hide. In some cases it is error or bias. What other attributes are "something to hide?". And why didn't the researchers disclose them? What didn't they know, and when did they not know it ?

    --
    Gently reply
  24. Re:Fantastic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Dude, no. Ask for raw data, then ask again if it's really, really, raw.

  25. You get what your reward ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As much as I am skeptical of the feedback methods for their models, they seem pretty open with the data now.

    I thought one of the issues during the tempest was that some original sensor data was not maintained and had been lost, and only interpreted or adjusted data was currently available?

  26. Re:There's no such thing as mental illness. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wow, very convincing, though I wish it was shorter. I've thought for a while that most of the shrinks were in it to make $, not cure people. CBT may be legitimate, but most 'therapy' is BS.

  27. Regrettably, consult an attorney by perpenso · · Score: 1

    I do research in textual web mining and from time to time I have other researchers ask me for my collections which I spider myself from copyrighted web sources. While my work is purely academic, I am covered by fair use. But since US intellectual property laws are obtuse and overbearing (imho), I cannot take the risk of sharing my collections with others for fear of running afoul of copyright law (since I can't control what is done with the collection once it is out of my hands and how do I know they would use it in a manner consistent with fair use). So it may be more than an unwillingness out of statistical fudging and more an unwillingness to become a target of copyright lawyers.

    Why would that be an issue? The onus would be on the people you share the data with it do keep it in the fair use domain. An analogy would be a professor quoting some copyrighted text in a syllabus and then saying she couldn't give a copy of the syllabus to another professor (or student) because she can't control what they do with it.

    There is a difference between copying a brief excerpt in a fair use context and copying the complete copyrighted work. The key point is that the fellow researchers want the complete data set, complete copies of copyrighted works. The original researcher is correct to fear legal consequences and regrettably should consult an attorney before sharing such a data set. Alternatively the original researcher should have logged the URLs where the original data was found and provided these URLs to fellow researchers, they could harvest their own copies. Admittedly some content may have been taken down or changed.

  28. Re:There's no such thing as mental illness. by Arker · · Score: 1

    Sounds like this guy has been reading a little classic from the good Dr. Szasz.

    --
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    Friends don't let friends enable ecmascript.
  29. incentives by superwiz · · Score: 1

    This does show that the pressure to overstate certainty of the results is more common in academia than is otherwise claimed. This is not limited to psychology. Human beings respond to incentives. And lack of requirement to publish data acts as an incentive to overstate certainty.

    --
    Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
  30. It's psychology. by nedlohs · · Score: 0

    In other words made up bullshit, with no cohesive theory tying it all together. So made up data is the least of their concerns...

  31. so those are the stats on statistical errors? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    well that is at least 50% made of iron...

    Everybody Knows that Psychology is about as real a science as Astrology anyway - one only needs to look at the farce that is the DSM - the Psychology Bible - to appreciate that

  32. Is that mean or median? by Solandri · · Score: 1

    If it's the median, then it means what the summary is implying.

    If it's the mean, it could just be that the ones who do commit fraud are skewing the sample. And that if you subtract them, the error rate of the people who don't share is no different than the error rate of those who do share.

    Not saying it's one or the other. Just pointing out that in this particular case, it's a very important distinction.

  33. gross misrepresentation by khipu · · Score: 1

    Now, I know that they all are intellectually dishonest, if not downright maliciously ignorant.

    That is a gross misrepresentation. Until fairly recently, even the claim that it has gotten warmer was based on extremely sloppy by climatologists who lacked expertise in statistics (the ASA itself criticized that work). The fact that the statistical work has been cleaned up now doesn't change the fact that the original work was sloppy and criticism of it was valid. And what has been shown is just that it has been getting a little warmer on average, over some large regions, nothing else.

    The second gross misrepresentation implying that the observation of man-made human warming has automatic policy implications, like the proposed reductions in CO2 emissions. In fact, the "consensus of scientists" is absolutely clear: there is no plausible scenario in which human CO2 emissions make our planet uninhabitable. Even the IPCC doesn't believe that humans will be able to melt the polar ice caps under the worst case scenario. Even their worst case forecasts amount to only a tiny fraction of what humanity has experienced over the last 20000 years anyway. Sea level rise, islands flooding, expansion of equatorial deserts, balanced by increasing habitability of northern zones, are climate changes humanity has not only coped with but thrived under.

    Greenpeace estimates a cost of $156 billion for a 1m sea level rise for the US (multiply that by 4-5 for the whole world). But the IPCC predicts only a 60cm rise over a hundred years if nothing changes (and even that requires some assumptions of unobserved feedback mechanisms). The cost of sea level rise is therefore negligible even according to Greenpeace's and the IPCC's own data and predictions. The other consequences of climate change are likely even less costly. That's the so-called "climate catastrophe" we are supposedly facing.

    with the tidal wave of the ignorant masses constantly threatening to wash them "away" in one form or another.

    Well, fortunately we live in a democracy in the US, and "believe me, we are the experts" is not good enough to get people to spend trillions of dollars to save a billion or so every year. That kind of technocratic b.s. may work in the EU but not in the US. Here, either the "experts" present their work in a plausible and reproducible way, or nothing's gonna happen. Handwaving, iffy statistics, and gigantic computational climate models aren't going to cut it. And insulting people isn't gonna work either.

    1. Re:gross misrepresentation by sstamps · · Score: 1

      That is a gross misrepresentation.

      You obviously missed the following line:

      "Now, see how that works? Demonization works both ways, ya know."

      Until fairly recently, even the claim that it has gotten warmer was based on extremely sloppy by climatologists who lacked expertise in statistics (the ASA itself criticized that work).

      Gross misrepresentation much? I think you need to check your makeup.

      The fact that the statistical work has been cleaned up now doesn't change the fact that the original work was sloppy and criticism of it was valid.

      The "cleaning up" resulted in statistically insignificant changes in the results. It doesn't sound like "sloppy" and "valid criticism" are very robust descriptive terms in this context.

      And what has been shown is just that it has been getting a little warmer on average, over some large regions, nothing else.

      Yeah, it's just a little warmer in the Arctic now, on the order of 8-15F some months. Please, now...

      The second gross misrepresentation implying that the observation of man-made human warming has automatic policy implications, like the proposed reductions in CO2 emissions. In fact, the "consensus of scientists" is absolutely clear: there is no plausible scenario in which human CO2 emissions make our planet uninhabitable.

      Well, actually, there IS a scenario where it becomes uninhabitable, it's called a "runaway greenhouse effect", similar to what happened to Venus. Is it plausible? I don't know. Probably not; however, I think there are big problems which ARE plausible, even though lesser effect than that one. A global food production collapse, for one. If you think that masses of starving people are not a massive problem, both in terms of security, and also in terms of potential pestilence and conflict that could erupt out of it, I don't know what to say; there aren't many things that could be much worse.

      Even the IPCC doesn't believe that humans will be able to melt the polar ice caps under the worst case scenario. Even their worst case forecasts amount to only a tiny fraction of what humanity has experienced over the last 20000 years anyway.

      Well, recent lines of evidence and research are showing that even the IPCC AR4's predictions are a bit cautious/conservative, so I would look to the next report. There's definitely a VERY strong indication that the Arctic will be effectively ice-free within 10-20 years. Antarctica/Greenland, probably not by 2100, but well, you never know. The big question right now is whether there are these things called "fast feedbacks" and "tipping points", and how strong and likely they are. Methane from melting clathrates and melting permafrost are one of those big "hmmmm..." ones right now that have many scientists awake at night.

      Sea level rise, islands flooding, expansion of equatorial deserts, balanced by increasing habitability of northern zones, are climate changes humanity has not only coped with but thrived under.

      Well, when it has changed over the course of a few millennia, sure. However, when it happens over the course of a couple centuries, will we be able to adapt fast enough? Are you going to be able to convince people that they will have to abandon their homelands and move to some strange places where the ecosystems themselves will be similarly shocked/stressed? Who's to say that those "New Northern Zones" will support such a migration? Just because they are warmer doesn't necessarily mean they are now capable of supporting the throngs of people who are going to flock to them. It takes a long time to condition soil for mass agriculture, ya know.

      Greenpeace estimates a cost of $156 billion for a 1m sea level rise for the US (multiply that by 4-5 for the whole world). But the IPCC predicts only a 60cm rise over a hundred

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
    2. Re:gross misrepresentation by khipu · · Score: 1

      Well, actually, there IS a scenario where it becomes uninhabitable, it's called a "runaway greenhouse effect", similar to what happened to Venus. Is it plausible? I don't know.

      Well, you should know. CO2 concentrations have been ten times (!) their current levels and at higher temperatures without runaway greenhouse effects. Throughout most of the ages since the dinosaurs, there have been no polar ice caps or glaciers. The normal climate on this planet is significantly warmer than it is now. Positing the possibility of a "runaway greenhouse effect similar to Venus" in arguments about climate change is completely unreasonable and irrational.

      But history and climatology does tell you that even slight decreases in temperature have devastating effects on human populations, causing crop failures and starvation.

      There's definitely a VERY strong indication that the Arctic will be effectively ice-free within 10-20 years. Antarctica/Greenland, probably not by 2100, but well, you never know.

      Good, let's go for it! The long term benefits would far outweigh the costs.

      I don't know if those numbers are meaningful or not.

      They are Greenpeace's own numbers. If even advocacy groups like Greenpeace come up with such small numbers in their worst case scenarios, why should we do anything about climate change? Do you have better numbers? Because right now, you're just waving your hands.

      You mean like mass starvation, increased disease and pestilence, and the associated increases in conflict/unrest/war? We've just about ended our little trysts in Iraq and Afghanistan which have contributed significantly to the bankrupting of our country. Wars waged over resources like food and clean water on a global scale will make the Iraq/Afghan wars look like scrimmages on a football pitch.

      Despite the supposed environmental destruction, the world is experiencing less war, less conflict, and less hunger today than it has since the start of the industrial revolution. And those countries that are a military threat to us (e.g., Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc.) do not suffer from either flooding or climate-induced starvation. On the other hand, those countries that do experience starvation and flooding (e.g., Bangladesh, Somalia) are no threat to our security.

      Major wars are, however, often caused when the inhabitants of rich, industrialized countries see their fortunes decline. And that is what restrictions on carbon emissions are much more likely to cause.

      That's like saying "this rationality stuff may work , but not ". Science is science. If you (or anyone, for that matter) think you have better evidence, research, or answers, by all means publish them

      Rationality and science do work, and they tell you that there is going to be no runaway greenhouse effect, that life can thrive with CO2 levels 10 times as high as current levels, and that an ice-free planet is the norm. You can look up those facts in any textbook on paleoclimatology; they are uncontroversial. And a simple look around the planet shows you that that neither flooding nor starvation (should they occur, which seems unlikely) are a threat to us; the threat is rich industrialized countries in depressions.

      If you want to make rational counterarguments, based on facts and observations, I'm all ears.

    3. Re:gross misrepresentation by sstamps · · Score: 1

      Well, you should know. CO2 concentrations have been ten times (!) their current levels and at higher temperatures without runaway greenhouse effects.

      CO2 concentrations have been 10 times higher in times when solar output was lower. Quite a number of factors may have been involved which prevented a runaway greenhouse effect. I don't have any information or evidence that it can or can't happen, hence "I don't know". Somehow, I severely doubt you do either.

      Throughout most of the ages since the dinosaurs, there have been no polar ice caps or glaciers. The normal climate on this planet is significantly warmer than it is now.

      There have been "cool" periods since that time, but the reason that large scale ice sheets did not form (during the Jurassic-Cretaceous period) was due primarily to continental plate configuration; there were most certainly glaciers where predominant long-term climate/weather patterns allowed for them. I don't think any particular temperature range can be considered "normal". The warm/cool phases appear to be pretty well-balanced.

      Even still, none of that changes the nature of the problem of AGW-induced climate change. Our civilation's infrastructure depends on a fairly steady-state climate, and rapid changes will cause serious problems.

      Positing the possibility of a "runaway greenhouse effect similar to Venus" in arguments about climate change is completely unreasonable and irrational.

      No, posting a probability of such without facts to back it up would be unreasonable and irrational. Kinda like saying "The normal climate on this planet is significantly warmer than it is now" without any facts to back it up. At least I said "I don't know", and "probably not". Sounds pretty reasonable and rational to me. *shrug*

      Good, let's go for it! The long term benefits would far outweigh the costs.

      Yeah, if the long term benefits are a bunch of humans drowning/starving to death/killing each other off over food/water because they were too stupid to avoid the problem when they knew about it and could have done something about it, then yeah, I think I agree. :)

      They are Greenpeace's own numbers. If even advocacy groups like Greenpeace come up with such small numbers in their worst case scenarios, why should we do anything about climate change? Do you have better numbers? Because right now, you're just waving your hands.

      The source of the numbers doesn't give them any more credence or validity. Greenpeace is just as capable of being wrong in their prognostications as anyone. No, I don't have better numbers; many problems that are plausible effects of climate change are very hard to put numbers on. How much is a human life worth? How about a million lives? Hundreds of millions? What about just human suffering? What about mass extinction of species? How do you put a dollar amount on those things?

      I don't need to put dollar figures on such things, because they are beyond having such meaningless valuations placed on them. Why do you?

      Despite the supposed environmental destruction, the world is experiencing less war, less conflict, and less hunger today than it has since the start of the industrial revolution.

      You can't possibly be serious. We had two of the most devastating wars in history in the last century, let alone all the other conflicts across the world since then. As for less hunger, some of the largest famines have also occurred in the last 200 years. Where are you getting your misinformation?

      And those countries that are a military threat to us (e.g., Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc.) do not suffer from either flooding or climate-induced starvation. On the other hand, those countries that do experience starvation and flooding (e.g., Bangladesh, Somalia) are no threat to our security.

      It's not a matter of sovereig

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
    4. Re:gross misrepresentation by khipu · · Score: 1

      Even still, none of that changes the nature of the problem of AGW-induced climate change. Our civilation's infrastructure depends on a fairly steady-state climate, and rapid changes will cause serious problems.

      There is no such thing as a "steady-state climate"; global temperatures have been oscillating wildly for the past several million years. Over the past 20000 years alone, sea levels have changed by more than 80m, glaciers covered much of Europe and the US, and temperatures have risen many times than what IPCC predicts.

      Furthermore, our civilization's infrastructure does not depend on a stable climate. The US has undergone vast changes in settlement, transportation, and agriculture over the last decades. Germany and Japan rebuilt modern technological societies after the devastation of WWII. The notion that human societies are based on stable, long-term infrastructure and settlement is ridiculous. No scenario predicted by IPCC would require anything near the changes humanity has experienced over the last century.

      Climate refugees from any nation migrating to other countries just to survive put a strain on said countries, creating conflict.

      That statement is just an expression of your xenophobic and anti-immigrant biases. In fact, immigration does not "put a strain" on countries, it contributes positively to their economies and their cultures.

      How much is a human life worth? How about a million lives? Hundreds of millions? What about just human suffering? What about mass extinction of species? How do you put a dollar amount on those things? I don't need to put dollar figures on such things, because they are beyond having such meaningless valuations placed on them. Why do you?

      It is the policies you advocate--limits on CO2 emissions and limits on migration--that will impede economic development and as a result cause people to suffer and die by the millions. That is why we are having this discussion. On the other hand, even the "worst case" predicted consequences of warming are easy to fix with money and liberal migration and immigration policies. That is why we need to put figures on this, so that we can minimize human suffering and maximize human welfare.

      It is you who wants to condemn people to continue to eek out existences in already marginal environments because of misguided notions of "stability", misty-eyed idealizations of idyllic island life, and apparently some deep-seated anti-immigrant prejudices. You want to sacrifice millions of people on the altar of some abstract principles. As long as people like you refuse to put specific figures on the table that allow cost/benefit analyses, no rational discussion is possible.

    5. Re:gross misrepresentation by khipu · · Score: 1

      CO2 concentrations have been 10 times higher in times when solar output was lower.

      Yes, but fortunately we aren't talking about 10x increases in CO2 concentrations due to human activity, leaving a large safety margin (increase in solar output has been much smaller in comparison). And you can go back to more recent figures where solar output was closer to what it is and CO2 concentrations were still several times what they are today without any runaway effects.

      I don't think any particular temperature range can be considered "normal". The warm/cool phases appear to be pretty well-balanced.

      Have you ever even bothered to look at climate history?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png

      (Note the non-linear time scale)

      You can't possibly be serious. We had two of the most devastating wars in history in the last century, let alone all the other conflicts across the world since then. As for less hunger, some of the largest famines have also occurred in the last 200 years. Where are you getting your misinformation?

      No misinformation, you just read it wrong: "Despite the supposed environmental destruction, the world is experiencing less war, less conflict, and less hunger today than it has since the start of the industrial revolution." Do we have less war today than during WWII? Yes. My point exactly. After consigning fascism and communism to the dustbins of history and liberalizing trade and migration, things have improved greatly for all of humanity.

      The source of the numbers doesn't give them any more credence or validity. Greenpeace is just as capable of being wrong in their prognostications as anyone. No, I don't have better numbers; many problems that are plausible effects of climate change are very hard to put numbers on.

      In different words, you don't have numbers, Greenpeace doesn't have numbers, and everybody's prognostications may be wrong. Yet, you still claim that there is a "consensus" that there is going to be global devastation unless we act now.

      At least I said "I don't know", and "probably not". Sounds pretty reasonable and rational to me. *shrug*

      You raised the possibility of a runaway greenhouse effect and used it to justify limiting CO2 emissions. I'm saying "that doesn't seem plausible to me because..." In response, you just say "I don't know" and attack my objection. Where does that leave us? Still with no evidence or rational argument that a runaway greenhouse effect can happen.

      Attacking my objections to your statements doesn't actually provide any more factual, rational support for your statements.

    6. Re:gross misrepresentation by sstamps · · Score: 1

      There is no such thing as a "steady-state climate";

      You'll note I said "fairly steady-state climate">. Omitting important qualifiers when quoting opponents is pretty intellectually dishonest, but that's OK, I've come to expect it; at least you blatantly show your bias, making it easy for all to see.

      global temperatures have been oscillating wildly for the past several million years.

      "Wildly", within 4C peak-to-peak over the last 5M years, and here we are, potentially seeing upwards of that much on the POSITIVE SIDE in a couple hundred years. Your definition of "wildly" is a bit skewed.

      Over the past 20000 years alone, sea levels have changed by more than 80m, glaciers covered much of Europe and the US,

      ..and our current civilization and its infrastructure is no more than a couple thousand years old; the vast majority of it being built in the last two hundred or so. What do you think 1-2m of sea level rise over the course of the next couple of centuries would do to said infrastructure? What about biodiversity?

      and temperatures have risen many times than what IPCC predicts.

      "Many times", eh? Well, let's see; the IPCC AR4 predicts a T increase of 3C on average, and up to 6.4C worst-case. In the last 5 million years, 4C peak-to-peak, and over the last 500M years, 11C ptp. That's less than 4 "times" for avg, and 2 "times" for worst case. Your definition of words like "many times" seems to be suspect.

      Furthermore, our civilization's infrastructure does not depend on a stable climate.

      Yeah, that's why food prices are so low right now. Bollocks.

      The US has undergone vast changes in settlement, transportation, and agriculture over the last decades.

      Given your penchant for creative word redefinition, I think your usage of "vast" is more than suspect. More bollocks.

      Germany and Japan rebuilt modern technological societies after the devastation of WWII.

      The so-called "devastation" of WW2 was primarily surgical, targeting military and industry, and nothing on the scale of natural disasters, like the recent Pakistan and Australian floods which hit everything without prejudice. As such, rebuilding modern technological societies in postwar Japan and Germany is trivial by comparison. Look simply at a single event, like hurricane Katrina in the US. There are places which will take decades to rebuild -- until the next Katrina hits. Then what?

      The notion that human societies are based on stable, long-term infrastructure and settlement is ridiculous. No scenario predicted by IPCC would require anything near the changes humanity has experienced over the last century.

      Ridiculous to you, maybe. I don't find it ridiculous at all. Hundreds of millions of displaced people are going to dwarf anything in the past.

      That statement is just an expression of your xenophobic and anti-immigrant biases.

      Apparently, your mind-reading technique needs a bit of refinement. I regret to inform you that you know precisely DICK about my biases.

      In fact, immigration does not "put a strain" on countries, it contributes positively to their economies and their cultures.

      Tell that to the Somalis and the Kenyans. I'm sure they'll heartily agree with your assessment of their wonderful situation at present.

      It is the policies you advocate--limits on CO2 emissions and limits on migration--that will impede economic development and as a result cause people to suffer and die by the millions.

      That's pretty much the most retarded thing I have ever heard, I think. Limits on CFCs didn't impede economic development; in fact it did the opposite. Surtaxes on SO2 emissions didn't cause people to suffer and die by the millions, either. Are you r

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
    7. Re:gross misrepresentation by sstamps · · Score: 1

      Yes, but fortunately we aren't talking about 10x increases in CO2 concentrations due to human activity,

      Nor are we talking about such increases when humans, let alone our civilizations, were around at all.

      leaving a large safety margin (increase in solar output has been much smaller in comparison).

      Yes, of course! There are only two factors at play, and they are both directly proportional in their effects when they are changed. Someone call Climate Research and inform them of your astounding simplification of the climate system.

      And you can go back to more recent figures where solar output was closer to what it is and CO2 concentrations were still several times what they are today without any runaway effects.

      Like when? When were CO2 concentrations "several times what they are today" last? Oh, that's right, over 100 million years ago. Again, your ridiculously oversimplified take on climate science must astound your peers! That is beyond the fact that you're arguing with yourself, since I never claimed that there were any "runaway effects" in the first place. More of your 1337 mind-reading skillz letting you down again, apparently.

      Have you ever even bothered to look at climate history?

      MANY times. Have you? Is the best you can do a single Wikipedia reference? What did that take, all of two minutes? Do you even know what the fuck you're looking at with that single graph?

      No misinformation, you just read it wrong:

      Am I? Let's see...

      "Despite the supposed environmental destruction, the world is experiencing less war, less conflict, and less hunger today than it has since the start of the industrial revolution."

      Do we have less war today than during WWII? Yes. My point exactly.

      Yeah, I obviously mistook "since the start of the industrial revolution" to mean "since the start of the industrial revolution", rather than what you actually were thinking when you wrote those words: "than during WWII". Unlike you and your awesome mind-reading skillz, I just have to go on what people say. I'm sure you understand.

      After consigning fascism and communism to the dustbins of history

      Someone better let the Chinese know that their current form of government has been consigned to the "dustbins of history". As for Fascism, it's alive and well in the US in the form of the corporatocracy/plutocracy enabled by current political "climate".

      and liberalizing trade and migration, things have improved greatly for all of humanity.

      A whole lot of humanity today would heartily disagree.

      In different words, you don't have numbers,

      No, in the same words, because that's PRECISELY what I said. Your failed attempt to spin the obvious is pretty epic there.

      Yet, you still claim that there is a "consensus" that there is going to be global devastation unless we act now.

      Only If you can quote where I made any such claims; otherwise, you're just practicing more of your uber mind-reading skillz.

      You raised the possibility of a runaway greenhouse effect and used it to justify limiting CO2 emissions.

      No, you completely misread and spun what I said. I brought it up SPECIFICALLY to cast doubt on it, and offered a lesser, but still significant set of criteria to justify taking SOME action; I didn't specify what action to take; you added that yourself.

      I'm saying "that doesn't seem plausible to me because..." In response, you just say "I don't know" and attack my objection. Where does that leave us? Still with no evidence or rational argument that a runaway greenhouse effect can happen.

      How many times do I have to say "I never claimed any such

      --
      -SS "Teach the ignorant, care for the dumb, and punish the stupid."
    8. Re:gross misrepresentation by khipu · · Score: 1

      As long as people like you refuse to even discuss rationally in the first place, we're never going to get anywhere.

      It is ironic that you, whose responses are full of statements like "I believe in the tooth fairy, too" accuse others of refusing to have rational discussions. As I was saying, trying to shoot down my points does nothing to strengthen yours, so you might as well stop that. You need to make a compelling case that climate change is dangerous because you want political and economic change. The rest of us is happy to go on as before.

      and our current civilization and its infrastructure is no more than a couple thousand years old; the vast majority of it being built in the last two hundred or so. What do you think 1-2m of sea level rise over the course of the next couple of centuries would do to said infrastructure?

      Well, you just answered your own question: we have been able to build that infrastructure over the time span of a couple of centuries, so even in the worst case, rebuilding from scratch it over the next couple of centuries should not be a problem. But even that is overestimating the cost and effort. Most infrastructure depreciates within a few decades, reflecting the fact that it is essentially constantly being rebuilt anyway. There is no permanent, valuable physical infrastructure that needs protection.

      What about biodiversity?

      Environmental change tends to spur evolutionary change.

      Tell that to the Somalis and the Kenyans. I'm sure they'll heartily agree with your assessment of their wonderful situation at present.

      Refugee and population problems in Africa existed long before climate change. Africa needs economic and social development, and these people need to overcome their ancient divisions and enmities. If they do that, they can deal as well as Europe and the US with even the worst case climate change scenarios. And if they don't do that, addressing climate change won't make any difference because they'll just kill each other for one of dozens of other reasons.

      No, we're having this "discussion" because there's a big problem and some people are too clueless to understand its impact and implications for the future. Fortunately, I don't need to convince you and your ilk. You'll be just another nameless, faceless Joe Blow in the crowd wondering why the world went to shit and having to live with your regret; well, assuming you live long enough TO regret it, anyway.

      Even the IPCC report doesn't talk about "the world going to shit", it merely talks about tradeoffs between a few percent of global GDP between mitigation costs and warming costs.

      http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains5-6.html

      It's people like you who spin such arcane and minor economic tradeoffs into horror scenarios.

      The only regret I would have is if people like you manage to reverse the progress the world has made on liberalization and economic development.

      (Lastly, I think technologically, the whole issue will become moot when China, India, and the US switch to Thorium, U238 and fusion reactors over the course of this century. Of course, then you will be up in arms about that too, right?)

    9. Re:gross misrepresentation by khipu · · Score: 1

      Since when did that stop you? Sauce for the goose, pal.

      I don't have anything to prove because I don't want anything to change. You have to make a convincing case if you want people to change and give up part of their money. All you have done so far is attack my arguments and credibility, list some unlikely horror scenarios (milliions dead, runaway greenhouse effect, etc.), and refused to quantify many of the supposed consequences of climate change. And in doing so, you have actually represented the people calling for action on climate change pretty accurately.

      In the end, even according to the IPCC, our choice comes down to the possibility of losing a few percent of global GDP if we do nothing, and a certainty of losing a few percent of global GDP if we follow the IPCC emissions restrictions. The rational choice is therefore to do nothing. And until someone comes up with better arguments than you have, that's where it's going to stay.

  34. The Muir enquiry managed it in 2 weeks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    McIntyre hasn't managed it in 12 years...

    Why is this? Because denialists don't WANT to find out the answers, they only want to claim AGW is wrong. the Muir enquiry got the data and did the PCA analysis on the data and got a hockey stick in two weeks, start to finish, because they were investigating whether the complaint you just made about "unable to get the data" was valid. They were skeptical and worked to find out themselves.

    You're a denialist and don't want to find out if you're right or wrong: you MUST BE RIGHT.

  35. Prejudice from the dark ages, still alive on /. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wow, this thread is so full of primitive backwards prejudice, it's not even funny. Every time I see computer/physics/math nerds talk about psychology, this outdated beaten old horse comes up and gets parroted around.

    Psychology was not based on anything in the past. That time is long gone and over! Psychology went from the top down, and neurology from the bottom up. Neurology failed. Hard. Because it did deliberately consider the big picture a taboo. And psychology failed, because it didn't have any underpinnings.
    Nowadays, they merged, and now psychology is built on neurology, which is built on chemistry and physics.
    But you emotionally and socially incompetent losers still babble about the same old shit, despite not a single one of you knowing anything about it.

    I recommend checking out schema therapy, and how easily it translates to neurology. Basically it's nothing more than
    1. Put the person in a environment that allows feedback loops, and introduce the type of neural input that causes problems to the person. Make it as similar as possible.
    2. Keep the person inside that loop through therapeutical nurturing (basically the same thing a mother would do to a small child that is in pain). This makes the mental pain that is triggered by step 1 bearable without any meds whatsoever.
    3. Do this until the weak (=repressed) neural links are triggered, resulting in the person remembering the past (even if from very early childhood!) intensively, allowing the grown-up mind to process it. This means the old links are strengthened (re-learning), and the person understands the reasons for his problems again.
    4. Now with that knowledge, a simple training of the correct associations will fix even the most deep lying (in terms of the superposition of information in neural nets) mental problems. For this introduce strong positive input together with a very close simulation of the situation that caused the mental problem. Repeat until the neurons store the correct/wanted view of the world. (Beware, as this can easily be abused.)
    5. If this takes too long, LSD can be used to accelerate the learning / plasticity. But be warned, because if the mental state and input is even slightly wrong, this causes serious unwanted changes in character and loss of old information. This step is only for the daring with no other hope.

    This method works so well, that it even works on simulated neural nets, animals, etc! It is neurologically extremely solid, and proven to work. I can testify this from having worked with it and tried it myself. The great thing is how generic it is. Everything that is not a purely chemical or genetic problem, can be fixed with it in very short times. (The more intense, and the more painful, the quicker. The only problem is, that your therapist might not have the energy/skill to take that much pain from you.)

    The only problem is, that you psychotherapist around the corner knows nothing about it, and still lives in his old learned pseudo-science from the 60s or even Freud. (Listen to the kind of terms he uses. If he uses words that fit into neurology, he's modern. If he uses words that Freud would use and that just aren't based on anything, stay the fuck away.)
    [Hell, some of them still insist on strictly not even hugs, and don't understand that as long as the patient talks, he can not focus hence and not create that feedback loop! EPIC FAIL!]