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SSD Latency, Error Rates May Spell Bleak Future

Posted by timothy on from the everything-counts-in-large-amounts dept.

Lucas123 writes "A new study by the University of California and Microsoft shows that NAND flash memory experiences significant performance degradation as die sizes shrink in size. Over the next dozen years latency will double as the circuitry size shrinks from 25 nanometers today, to 6.5nm, the research showed. Speaking at the Usenix Conference on File and Storage Technologies in San Jose this week, Laura Grupp, a graduate student at the University of California, said tests of 45 different types of NAND flash chips from six vendors using 72nm to 25nm lithography techniques showed performance degraded across the board and error rates increased as die sizes shrunk. Triple-Level NAND performed the worst, followed by Multi-Level Cell NAND and Single-Level Cell. The researchers said MLC NAND-based SSDs won't be able to go beyond 4TB and TLC-based SSDs won't be able to scale past 16TB because of the performance degradation, so it appears the end of the road for SSDs will be 2024."

5 of 292 comments (clear)

  1. Sounds legit by sbrown7792 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Because there could *never* be a breakthrough discovery/invention found within the next 10 years.

    1. Re:Sounds legit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Oh there will be a great discovery/invention in the next 10 years. Unfortunately it will be tied up in patent litigation for the next 50 years after that. All fun and games when it is a hard drive. Not so funny when it is a medicine that can save your kid.

  2. Re:In other news... by dyingtolive · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "Hey, would you want a computer? It's a city block large, uses all of these punchcards for I/O, and doesn't really do much other than crack Enigma. Hey, where are you going?"

    "Hey, would you want a computer? It can fit in your pocket, let you talk to anyone in the world, can take pictures and provide you god damn near any information written down by a human being, and you can watch porn on it!"

    Computers are the same thing they were even 20 years ago in name only.

    --
    Support the EFF and Creative Commons. The war is coming, and they're supporting you...
  3. "...the end of the road for SSDs will be 2024..." by John+Hasler · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Yes. They'll all stop working then and it will become impossible to make any more.

    --
    Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
  4. Re:Stuff like this... by blahplusplus · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "640k ought to be enough for everyone!"

    One can take a look at videocards, right now for most PC gamers they haven't needed to upgrade their video hardware for quite some time relatively speaking compared to the past. The idea that needs will scale linearly forever is nonsense.

    There is a point after rapid growth where you reach 'good enough' until the next step is ready which no one knows in advance.