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SSD Latency, Error Rates May Spell Bleak Future

Posted by timothy on from the everything-counts-in-large-amounts dept.

Lucas123 writes "A new study by the University of California and Microsoft shows that NAND flash memory experiences significant performance degradation as die sizes shrink in size. Over the next dozen years latency will double as the circuitry size shrinks from 25 nanometers today, to 6.5nm, the research showed. Speaking at the Usenix Conference on File and Storage Technologies in San Jose this week, Laura Grupp, a graduate student at the University of California, said tests of 45 different types of NAND flash chips from six vendors using 72nm to 25nm lithography techniques showed performance degraded across the board and error rates increased as die sizes shrunk. Triple-Level NAND performed the worst, followed by Multi-Level Cell NAND and Single-Level Cell. The researchers said MLC NAND-based SSDs won't be able to go beyond 4TB and TLC-based SSDs won't be able to scale past 16TB because of the performance degradation, so it appears the end of the road for SSDs will be 2024."

16 of 292 comments (clear)

  1. Sounds legit by sbrown7792 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Because there could *never* be a breakthrough discovery/invention found within the next 10 years.

    1. Re:Sounds legit by jedidiah · · Score: 5, Funny

      OK then. You've got 10 years. Get going.

      --
      A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
    2. Re:Sounds legit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Oh there will be a great discovery/invention in the next 10 years. Unfortunately it will be tied up in patent litigation for the next 50 years after that. All fun and games when it is a hard drive. Not so funny when it is a medicine that can save your kid.

    3. Re:Sounds legit by bughunter · · Score: 5, Funny

      Yes, but what I heard about PRAM is that you have to push it. A lot.

      --
      I can see the fnords!
    4. Re:Sounds legit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      But I *LIKE* to push the PRAM a lot!

    5. Re:Sounds legit by maxwell+demon · · Score: 5, Informative

      We already have the breakthrough, but it's not Flash, it's PRAM.

      And MRAM. And FeRAM.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    6. Re:Sounds legit by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 5, Funny

      Tiny monks with tiny paintbrushes, inscribing ones and zeros on individual electrons. No problem.

    7. Re:Sounds legit by LearnToSpell · · Score: 5, Funny

      Won't somebody think of the hard drives!

      --
      Haida Manga
    8. Re:Sounds legit by mickwd · · Score: 5, Funny

      Would those be chipmonks?

      OK, OK, I'm going........

    9. Re:Sounds legit by pjt33 · · Score: 5, Funny

      On behalf of my fellow Brits I would like to apologise, and assure you that henceforth we shan't abbreviate the full term, perambulator. Let's face it: pushing an overloaded baby carriage (including baby, nappy bags, bottles, snacks, toys, etc.) is a long way from being the "leisurely walk" for which the word "stroller" would be appropriate.

  2. SSD =/= NAND Flash by MischaNix · · Score: 5, Informative

    There will be other solid-state storage solutions. The only reason NAND is currently used is its relative cheapness and reliability.

  3. Re:In other news... by dyingtolive · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "Hey, would you want a computer? It's a city block large, uses all of these punchcards for I/O, and doesn't really do much other than crack Enigma. Hey, where are you going?"

    "Hey, would you want a computer? It can fit in your pocket, let you talk to anyone in the world, can take pictures and provide you god damn near any information written down by a human being, and you can watch porn on it!"

    Computers are the same thing they were even 20 years ago in name only.

    --
    Support the EFF and Creative Commons. The war is coming, and they're supporting you...
  4. "...the end of the road for SSDs will be 2024..." by John+Hasler · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Yes. They'll all stop working then and it will become impossible to make any more.

    --
    Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
  5. Re:Stuff like this... by blahplusplus · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "640k ought to be enough for everyone!"

    One can take a look at videocards, right now for most PC gamers they haven't needed to upgrade their video hardware for quite some time relatively speaking compared to the past. The idea that needs will scale linearly forever is nonsense.

    There is a point after rapid growth where you reach 'good enough' until the next step is ready which no one knows in advance.

  6. I'm sure it's all wonderful by goldcd · · Score: 5, Funny

    But I'm choosing to ignore it all, entirely based on font.
    http://cseweb.ucsd.edu/~lgrupp/CV.pdf

  7. Re:I want HAL's memory by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    So... How's your virginity going?