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SSD Latency, Error Rates May Spell Bleak Future
Lucas123 writes "A new study by the University of California and Microsoft shows that NAND flash memory experiences significant performance degradation as die sizes shrink in size. Over the next dozen years latency will double as the circuitry size shrinks from 25 nanometers today, to 6.5nm, the research showed. Speaking at the Usenix Conference on File and Storage Technologies in San Jose this week, Laura Grupp, a graduate student at the University of California, said tests of 45 different types of NAND flash chips from six vendors using 72nm to 25nm lithography techniques showed performance degraded across the board and error rates increased as die sizes shrunk. Triple-Level NAND performed the worst, followed by Multi-Level Cell NAND and Single-Level Cell. The researchers said MLC NAND-based SSDs won't be able to go beyond 4TB and TLC-based SSDs won't be able to scale past 16TB because of the performance degradation, so it appears the end of the road for SSDs will be 2024."
Because there could *never* be a breakthrough discovery/invention found within the next 10 years.
There will be other solid-state storage solutions. The only reason NAND is currently used is its relative cheapness and reliability.
An old study (well, executive) showed that there was a world wide demand for "maybe 6" computers. This might all be true at current technology levels but technology will have changed an awful lot by 2024.
... always denies other areas of innovation. The same way processors were thought not to scale down to x nm and we're at 20'ish nm now. The same way hard drives were thought only to have x capacity and we're now in the terabytes. If nand is really so limited then something different then nand will take it's place. But a few terabyte will be more then enough for 99% of applications and hard disks will be for packrats and those who need large amounts of longer term storage.
Yes, please send your SSDs to me for disposal, thanks.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
Yes. They'll all stop working then and it will become impossible to make any more.
Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
But I'm choosing to ignore it all, entirely based on font.
http://cseweb.ucsd.edu/~lgrupp/CV.pdf
Yeah, about that 4TB limit, I think these folks will be surprised that their 5TB and 10TB drives won't be possible in the next few years....
There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
Exactly, this quote at the end says it all: "However, even with TLC flash at 6.5nm, Grupp calculates that SSDs will continue to outperform hard disk drives on throughput, 32,000 IOPS to 200 IOPS, respectively."
It costs money to stack. At a much higher rate than it does to scale. Or at least that has been the case. It will be a significant hit to the industry when they can no longer count on device scaling to help bring up density, and get forced to wire multiple chips in ever expanding arrays.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
A warp core really isn't a power source. It is more like an alternator. The power source is the matter-antimatter reactions. Similarly people confuse dilithium crystals with being a power source when they are really just a matter-antimatter regulator.
And now, back to reality...
So... How's your virginity going?