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What To Do About an Asteroid That Has a 1 In 625 Chance of Hitting Us In 2040?

Posted by Soulskill on from the ignore-it-until-2039-and-then-panic dept.

The Bad Astronomer writes "The asteroid 2011 AG5 is 140 meters across: football-stadium-sized. Its orbit isn't nailed down well enough to say yet, but using what's currently known, there's a 1 in 625 chance it will impact the Earth in 2040. It's behind the Sun until September 2013, and more observations taken then will probably reduce the odds of impact to something close to 0. But does it make sense to wait until then to start investigating a mission to deflect it away our planet? Astronomers are debating this right now, and what they conclude may pave the way for how we deal with an asteroid threat in the future."

5 of 412 comments (clear)

  1. Re:I will be doing one thing about it. by Lotana · · Score: 5, Informative

    140 meters diameter doesn't sound like much. Depends on the composition and speed, it will be reduced even further before making it to the ground. I immagine it shouldn't be much worse than a Tunguska event and seeing how majority of the planet is uninhabited, chances are good that no major number of lifes will be lost.

    And if it occurs at a location where we can monitor/record, it will bring awareness that rocks in space do indeed end up on our planet in our lifetimes, thus worthwile to think about. Therefore having this pebble hit us might not be such a bad thing after all.

  2. Re:I will be doing one thing about it. by Spiridios · · Score: 5, Informative

    140 meters diameter doesn't sound like much. Depends on the composition and speed, it will be reduced even further before making it to the ground. I immagine it shouldn't be much worse than a Tunguska event and seeing how majority of the planet is uninhabited, chances are good that no major number of lifes will be lost.

    And if it occurs at a location where we can monitor/record, it will bring awareness that rocks in space do indeed end up on our planet in our lifetimes, thus worthwile to think about. Therefore having this pebble hit us might not be such a bad thing after all.

    Just some numbers for reference:

    This one is 140 meters across.

  3. Re:I will be doing one thing about it. by Lotana · · Score: 5, Informative

    True, but the remaining variables are the composition and how much actually makes it down to the surface.

    Lets use some numbers in the calculator from the quick Google search:

    http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/

    - We are hit with 140 meters perfect sphere of dense stone
    - Speed of projectile is 17 km/s (Calculator states that it is the typical speed for asteroid impace)
    - Entry angle of 45% (Again based on the caluculator stated most likely)
    - Rock lands into 1000 meter depth water. Random figure

    Results:
    1 km away

    20 km away

    100 km away

    Reading the descriptions, it honestly doesn't sound like such a calamity. At 100 km distance it is hardly felt.

  4. Re:I will be doing one thing about it. by wisty · · Score: 5, Informative

    Um. Not really. http://idisk.mac.com/mpaineau-Public/paine_tsunami_asteroid99.pdf

    The assumption people make is that all the kinetic energy goes into a wave. That's not a given. It can dissipate as heat as the meteor falls through the water, or create incoherent waves. The Indian Ocean tsunami was so bad because the plate "flicked" up, splashing the water. It might be more like punching the water, which would still make a bit of a splash; but it might not make a huge wave.

    That said, I wouldn't be swimming anywhere near it.

  5. Re:I will be doing one thing about it. by edxwelch · · Score: 5, Informative

    Huh? It says 72 Megaton explosion. That's bigger than than the largest nuclear bomb ever detonated.