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'Of Course We Are In a Post-PC World,' Says Ray Ozzie

An anonymous reader writes "Speaking at a tech conference in Seattle this week, former Microsoft Chief Software Architect Ray Ozzie had some interesting things to say about the state of the computing industry. 'People argue about "are we in a post-PC world?" Why are we arguing? Of course we are in a post-PC world. That doesn't mean the PC dies, that just means that the scenarios that we use them in, we stop referring to them as PCs, we refer to them as other things.' Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception. 'If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future. ... It's a world of phones and pads and devices of all kinds, and our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.'"

32 of 399 comments (clear)

  1. A Brave New World by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    of greasy fingerprints.

    1. Re:A Brave New World by oodaloop · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yes, say goodbye to your pristine mice and sanitary keyboards, which were never full of crumbs, hair and other disgusting detritus.

      --
      Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
    2. Re:A Brave New World by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You know what is pristine and sanitary? My screen.

    3. Re:A Brave New World by Dahamma · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exactly. I hate people getting their greasy fingerprints all over my computer screen almost as much as I'd hate them taking a dump in my kitchen sink. Separation of input and output has its advantages...

      Oleophobic screens only work so well, someone needs to come up with a better solution (and then a better garbage disposal).

    4. Re:A Brave New World by BasilBrush · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Have you tried screen wipes...

    5. Re:A Brave New World by Dahamma · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yeah, they keep getting stuck in the rotor blades...

    6. Re:A Brave New World by countach · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yeah, but haven't you noticed its better when someone takes a dump on your ipad compared to your keyboard? Much easier to clean up in my experience.

    7. Re:A Brave New World by DeathFromSomewhere · · Score: 5, Funny

      I really did not want the image of a slashdotter showering with his keyboard. I am now forever scarred. I hope you are happy.

      --
      -1 overrated isn't the same thing as "I disagree".
    8. Re:A Brave New World by gmack · · Score: 5, Interesting

      No. I tried several brands of those and you are right they are annoying to type on and I hated them all. This is the HP Washable keyboard another bonus was that I used to have an ancient keyboard that I loved because it felt *solid* but I lost it when I moved out of my parents house 11 years ago. This is the first keyboard that I've owned since then that feels solid enough that I actually don't find myself wishing for my old keyboard.

    9. Re:A Brave New World by The+Archon+V2.0 · · Score: 4, Informative

      It ain't the best when you're at work and you start finding mystery short curlies in your keyboard.

    10. Re:A Brave New World by snikulin · · Score: 4, Funny

      You don't have a small kid, do you?

  2. Ruhroh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    "Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception."

    They're doomed.

    1. Re:Ruhroh by MightyMartian · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I think Microsoft as a major player in the consumer market is probably going to fade. I still think they're going to be a major player in the medium-sized business and corporate world for some time to come. But as far as consumer devices go, they're so behind Apple and Android now that I just don't really see how they'll catch up.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    2. Re:Ruhroh by lgw · · Score: 5, Interesting

      "Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception."

      They're doomed.

      They may well be. It's funny - I've been reading /. since before moderation, and for many years every year was going to be "the year of Linux on the desktop - this time for sure!" Well, now that that's become more of a running joke, it might actually become true. General purpose home computers will likely revert to a hobbyist thing before too many more years, and of course Linux will dominate at that point.

      Non-hobby home PCs are fading fast., and it's really just PC gaming keeping Windows on home-built rigs today, which is a shrinking niche. The release of the Steam phone apps (even though they aren't really selling games yet) heralds the end. Once the big MMOs shift their client focus to mobile platforms (and that's coming for sure), it won't take long before there's no real point in running Windows on your home-built PC except that virtualized XP instance you use for classic games.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    3. Re:Ruhroh by Sarten-X · · Score: 4, Informative

      From what I can quickly find, Vista development started in May of 2001, and OS X was announced in 1998. OS X's initial release was actually two months prior to Vista's development start, in March of 2001.

      Now, I'm sure we could trace bits of both OS's source back to NeXTSTEP and DOS (and likely earlier), but that's hardly relevant or meaningful.

      --
      You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
    4. Re:Ruhroh by LordLucless · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I think a lot of Microsoft's success with consumer-grade PCs has been because of their dominance in the business world. You go out to buy a home PC, you want the same sort of OS and tools that you find on your work computer.

      I think it used to work that way. Back in the day, computers were new and expensive. People's first experience was what they used at work. When they bought their computer from home, they bought the same one they were used to. Note that the hobbyists, who had experience with computers outside business, overwhelmingly turned to the Commodores, Amigas, Apples, Spectrums, etc.

      Now, though, people's first experience with computers is in their home. In fact, IT departments are seeing the opposite effect, where Apple users are demanding they be able to use the same system in business that they do at home. Now that computers are cheap, consumer items, instead of expensive business items slowly making a transition into the home, consumer experience is becoming more of a driving force than business experience.

      --
      Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
    5. Re:Ruhroh by Dahamma · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Most businesses are not profitable when they start, and many have a business model of selling a loss leader for future profit. That's how the Playstation started, and for a while (until the PS3 fiasco) it was Sony's most profitable business.

      The XBox 360 is only 5-6 years into its "10 year lifespan", and Microsoft has built a huge dedicated customer base with Live (40M paying Gold subscribers, many of whom, just like with Apple and iTunes are at least somewhat locked in with various DLC, games, movies, and gamer rating, etc). I think your information about the Xbox's profitability is way out of date - Xbox/entertainment now makes up about 20% of Microsoft's total revenue, compared to about 30% for its business division.

      Wagering a careful look (ie a couple Google searches for quotes), from their last quarterly releases & analysis:

      "Microsoft's strongest growth came from the Entertainment division where the Xbox resides, however. That group's revenue jumped 14 percent to $4.24 billion, a new high. The Xbox 360 installed base now totals approximately 66 million consoles and 18 million Kinect sensors, Microsoft said. Xbox Live now has 40 million members worldwide, an increase of 33 percent from the prior year period."

      "Microsoft's fourth-quarter results showed an interesting shift, as Microsoft's Xbox business unit threatens to pass its Windows division in terms of revenue. If the current trends continue, Windows and its related businesses could rank fourth within the company, ahead of its perpetually money-losing online business."

      I'm sure praising anything Microsoft has done in any way will get me modded down (I already see my first comment was "Overrated" and my 2nd "Underrated", nice!) - but you have to give some credit where it's due in this case, they stuck with it and finally figured out how to build a real business around the Xbox.

    6. Re:Ruhroh by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Vista was in the works before OSX was. I know ignorant Apple fan boys like to spread shit.

      Great place for me to chime in. I use both OS's

      TechRepublic had a bit about the Windows 8 consumer preview. On my Vista laptop, I figured I'd give it a try. Downloaded it, installed it. I chose the option that seemed safest.

      After playing with it a while, and deciding that Windows 8 made Vista look like a well thought out system, I looked to see how to remove the preview. I didn't see anything. Then I went online, and saw that you don't install the freaking preview!

      It takes your program folder, then renames it, to Programs.old, then installs the Windows 8 OS. Everything on your computer is busted up. Your option is to reinstall your old system from scratch.

      Being more than a little pissed, I went back to Microsoft's website. The best info on this bit of genius had to be found with a search - not on the download page. There was a little bit on the bottom of one download page about the no uninstall feature.

      So yeah, in some respects it was my "fault" Biggest fault on my end was trusting Microsoft. But yes, I suppose I should have read every word and taken every link and even thought of random stuff that might bite me in the backside. But as I once told a customer service person who's idea of service was to blame everything on the customer, even when their business ignored my instructions, "I'll just take my business some place where I don't make these mistakes." What the hell type of company thinks it is a good practice to put out a preview that hoses the previewer's computers in the first place? And if so, put the warning at the top of the page, prominently.

      I've never had those type of experiences on my Mac's or my Linux computers.

      p.s., The Windows 8 preview was pretty awful. From having to pull up a window to expose a log-in window, to the weird full screen Commodore 64 graphics on the smartphone screen that greets you next, then closing that to make something that sort of looks like a desktop, to changing the way you access everything (they're big on Office style ribbons) it is just very clumsy. There should be no need to force a change in how we navigate - the interface just gets in the way. A Mac user from the late 80's could figure out how to use OSX Lion pretty quickly. A Windows 95 user and Windows 8? Not at all. I had to do a search to figure out how to shut down. It's not on the start menu any more (sorta good), you have to mouse to the lower right hand corner, then carefully move the pointer up to some icons that will pop up. Anyhow, it's ugly, clumsy, and doesn't do anything that well. Still has notepad - a plus, and I liked the little goldfish on the "desktop" screen. p.s p.s. Installed Linux on the laptop that W8 hosed. All is well. Only one computer left running Windows.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
  3. Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. by Kenja · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future."

    From what I've seen, people will not be flocking to Windows 8 of their own free will. But the "good" news is that their will has little to do with it. New computes will come with Windows 8, and no doubt there will be some software feature tie ins that will require it. Much like Vista and DirectX.

    --

    "Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
    1. Re:Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There are two problems for MS. First, they are not as structurally big as IBM was when IBM had their problems in the 80s. Second, MS is putting all (or most) of their eggs in the Windows 8 basket. I just cannot see Windows 8 getting much adoption in the corporate world. It does not appear to be a good environment for being productive. It seems to me to be an environment for consuming entertainment media.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    2. Re:Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. by Nemyst · · Score: 4, Insightful

      DirectX at least has the advantage of being arguably better than the competition. Windows 8 doesn't even have that, and ironically its biggest competitor will be... Windows 7.

    3. Re:Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. by Anthony+Mouse · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I don't think that's really an accurate analogy. Bill Gates was a business guy. Microsoft's business model has been to identify and destroy any and all threats to Windows. It still is. The problem for them is that you can't win in the long-term when you're constantly playing defense like that. Eventually you get a competitor that you just can't kill before they become a significant player, and it all goes downhill from there.

      Apple is a different story. It's kind of hard to predict where they'll go from here, because their business model as a high-volume premium brand requires them to be continuously entering new markets. Because the old markets become commodity markets as competitors improve their products, which requires Apple to either lower their prices or lose market share. And they generally don't lower their prices, so you can see that e.g. Android has taken the pole position in the smart phone market, and is likely to take a large chunk of the tablet market within a year or two. When that happens, to stay on top, Apple has to enter a new market: Mac -> iPod -> iPhone -> iPad -> ? So what's next? And what's next after that?

      They may or may not be able to pull a couple more transitions like that off without Jobs, but it seems unlikely to continue indefinitely. In fact, what I would expect to get them sooner than their inability to make good on a product launch is that anyone of their size quickly starts accumulating powerful adversaries, telecommunications carriers, movie studios, Microsoft, etc., who notice Apple taking a huge chunk of their prospective margins and each make efforts to claw them back. I suspect Apple would have a serious problem price-wise if AT&T and Verizon both decided they were done subsidizing iOS devices, for example. And we all know what Microsoft is capable of when you threaten Windows dominance, etc.

  4. Stating the obvious by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Ray Ozzie has always been good at restating the obvious, and in people paying more attention to his statements than they warrant because of who he is (or was).

    Microsoft is still the power player when it comes to PCs, but it has yet to figure out how to become more than an afterthought when it comes to the devices people are using more and more instead of PCs.

    On a side note - I'd venture to suggest that the Slashdot crowd as a group hasn't really come to terms with this sea change that's occurring in the world at large. My tech friends - and myself as well - still use a computer more than any post-PC device, while my non-tech friends are mostly on their phones or iPads during their off-work hours.

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  5. Re:What dumb-speak sounds like: by starcraftsicko · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I seem to recall we saw this a while ago:
    http://boingboing.net/2011/12/27/the-coming-war-on-general-purp.html
    Odd to hear it so clearly from MS now.

  6. Re:You can have my PC by UnknowingFool · · Score: 4, Insightful

    No one is coming to take your PC. What Ozzie and others are saying is that previously you needed a PC for a minimal amount of functionality like email and web surfing. Smart phones and tablets are now good enough to offer that functionality. Thus manufacturers are rushing to provide this need. Those that don't recognize this trend will not be able to take advantage.

    --
    Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
  7. Re:You can have my PC by Sez+Zero · · Score: 5, Interesting

    In the beginning, only the nerds had PCs.

    Then they went all mainstream. Mouses. Color Monitors. Facebook. There came a time when even little old ladies had a PC.

    That's now changing. Being in a "Post-PC world" just means that the little old ladies and other consumers of digital entertainment will use some other non-PC device.

    The best part: nerds will finally be left alone with their PCs. I, for one, look forward to this wonderful "Post-PC Utopia."

  8. Re:You can have my PC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I bought a desktop yesterday, because I still want to do some of the stuff you can't do on all your newfangled devices.
    I still want to write, draw, compose, and program.
    In a word, I want to create.
    How ironic that it used to be Apple that was known for empowering the creative types.

  9. Re:You can have my PC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    There is a huge push to pry general computing out of the hands of citizens. Tablets are conditioning us for centralized storage (aka The Cloud), and if it ever gains traction, the next step will be to centralize processing power and "stream" the video output to our dumb terminals. It's all about controlling what people do on their systems, because they know they will never turn the internet into one-way information flow without wresting the processor and long-term storage from personal ownership. Once the corporate collective controls these, then we will be told what we can and cannot do with them, and how much we have to pay to do (or avoid) it. We really need to build a publicly-owned infrastructure for the net, let the high end of the market be controlled by Big Money.

  10. They're fucked. by RyuuzakiTetsuya · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I've had a small epiphany.

    I think the problem with Metro, is that I don't think that regular users think like Microsoft thinks they think.

    nearly 30 years of GUI development and most everyone I know still uses full screen apps and a ridiculously cluttered desktop.

    Don't get me wrong, I think on paper metro sounds amazing, especially with how apps interact with each other. Also on paper, iOS sounds completely fucking ridiculous, with just page after page of apps and no interaction.

    However, what I find myself realizing is that metro isn't how people want to interact with computers. It doesn't offer any advantages over Windows Explorer. It's too high minded and over thought out.

    It's going to bomb.

    Badly.

    --
    Non impediti ratione cogitationus.
  11. Re:You can have my PC by Dahamma · · Score: 4, Funny

    If you are holding your PC in your arms maybe you should be considering something else after all.

  12. A PC by any other name by rickb928 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I bought a new home last December. I got a pretty good deal, too, so there neener.

    But the process wasn't as simple as it was back in 2005. I had to come up with income and asset verification, file forms online and offline for everything, answer questions at a moment's notice, exchange offers and counteroffers as we negotiated over details, accept an appraisal while I was driving home from work, etc.

    My Android phone was all I had to work with. I could not create documents at work without having them signed from my employer. I couldn't send attachments via email. I couldn't go to several crucial websites. If not for the phone, I would not have been able to meet the deadlines.

    For that period, my Android phone was a PC.

    Now, if I bothered to work itout, a Bluetooth keyboard would make it 1000% better at that. And if I could jack it into a screen and an Ethernet jack, even better. That product is not very far in the future. The Transformer ain't it, quite, and the Motorola thing was too lame.

    But it's coming. Then I have to ditch my little notebook. the all-in-one will do that fine.

    --
    deleting the extra space after periods so i can stay relevant, yeah.
  13. Re:You can have my PC by LordLucless · · Score: 4, Insightful

    To draw a transportation analogy (not cars, I'm afraid):

    The Industrial revolution was the Train Age. There was sudden availability of cheap, reliable transport across vast distances for both people and cargo. Trains came to symbolize the great advances that came with the industrial revolution, as well as enabling them. We are in a Post-Train age. That doesn't mean that we don't have any trains, it means that they're no longer the defining symbol of the age. They've faded into practical ubiquity.

    It's the same with the PC - the personal computer was the point at which the information age really took off. There was sudden access to cheap, reliable communication across vast distances. The PC has come to symbolize all the advances in the information age. When we move to a Post-PC age, it doesn't mean we won't have any, it means that they've become everyday items of practical, utilitarian uses, instead of the grand symbol they once were.

    --
    Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face