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Why Microsoft's Keeping the Next Xbox Under Wraps

Posted by Soulskill on from the still-figuring-out-how-to-make-it-infinitely-social dept.

donniebaseball23 writes "Microsoft recently confirmed that it's not going to be talking at all about its next Xbox, codenamed Durango, at this year's E3, instead keeping the focus on Xbox 360. Forbes columnist Chris Morris explains that Microsoft likely doesn't have games to show for the system yet — and why should they take the focus off Xbox 360, which currently has a lot of momentum? Ultimately, though, the decision not to show the next system 'could have a ripple effect on the rest of the industry,' he says. And by pushing Durango's unveiling back a year, 'Microsoft could find itself going head to head with Sony in a battle of features, even if the machines don't hit shelves at the same time.'" The latest rumor is that an ARM-based Xbox 'lite' is planned for 2013, with a true successor to the 360 coming some time after that.

24 of 195 comments (clear)

  1. My personal opinion by MasterMan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think that while Microsoft would certainly like to release the new Xbox already, they are afraid of doing so. Not because of Sony, but because of Nintendo.

    The last generation surprised everyone on the console front. Hardcore gamers kept playing with PS3 and Xbox360, but Wii ultimately won the round by attracting general population into gaming. Suddenly you had millions of new people introduced into gaming, especially girls. While Microsoft has always produced quality products and by far they are the best on the industry on lots of products, they don't know how to capture that market. They want it badly, but they want to look how Nintendo succeeds with their Wii successor. By delaying the release they can learn from Nintendo's mistakes and hit them hard next year and become the #1 of next generation consoles.

    1. Re:My personal opinion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      Well, the red ring of death would seem to indicate that MS's gear isn't always the highest quality...

    2. Re:My personal opinion by P-niiice · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Wii won in unit sales, but they have turned a generation off with a (yes, huge-selling) fad device and continued rehashes of old franchises.

      If they don't steal some core players from MS and Sony, they're sunk this time around. they need to out-power the big boys and deliver some adult games that compete with the exclusives that Sony and MS own.

    3. Re:My personal opinion by djdanlib · · Score: 5, Informative

      I recall that Microsoft did everything they could to deny the issue (including telling retailers not to process returns) until the magnitude of the problem became so obviously large that a hardware redesign and recall was required. Were you around Slashdot back then? It was full of stories about that. I do think we are partly to blame for them finally owning up to it, quietly though that was.

      As for the PS3, I have no idea how Sony handles it, but that may be because I don't purchase Sony products anymore. Nintendo has excellent customer service according to the reviews I've seen, although I nor nobody I know ever had to send their Wii in for service - even after blatant abuse by children, animals, drunk roommates etc.

    4. Re:My personal opinion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      The red ring of death issue was majorly overestimated...
      I do, however, appreciate Microsoft's honesty and not trying to hide the issues from users.

      Wow. Why do you shill for MS?

      From Tech Digest [www.techdigest.tv] - A survey of retailers has found that as many as 30 percent of all Xbox 360s are being returned for repair. This goes against Microsoft's assertion that Xbox 360 is well within standard industry failure rates of 3 - 5 percent.

      From HCW [www.hardcoreware.net] After vehemently denying there being a problem, Microsoft has finally caved in and extended the warranty of the XBOX 360 another 3 years across the board, for those who have the RED RING OF DEATH problem.

      I could go on and on and on... Use google and see how MS really treated their customers when the RROD was first reported.

    5. Re:My personal opinion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      Really? An estimated 33% of Xbox 360s were sent back for repairs and you think it's overestimated because it has some lights on the front? Both the Wii and PS3 have hundreds of error codes, along with warning lights and beeps that inform the user of a problem.

    6. Re:My personal opinion by blackicye · · Score: 4, Funny

      The red ring of death issue was majorly overestimated, and you know why? Because Xbox360 actually does show error messages on failure while PS3 and Wii do not. It became it's image, just like the blue screen of death. Image wise it would had been better for MS to just show nothing in both cases. I do, however, appreciate Microsoft's honesty and not trying to hide the issues from users.

      Because the PS3s and Wiis kept failing, and their owners cluelessly continued using them and enjoying their games until this day for many of the consoles?

      As opposed to the Xbox 360 developing the RROD which you otherwise could have mistaken for normal operation in some cases as early as 3 to 6 months after purchase, and often repeatedly after getting it back from RMA, and being such a fiasco that the warranty was retroactively increased to 3 years?

      Hmm you have a point I guess, or not.

    7. Re:My personal opinion by vux984 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Wii won in unit sales

      And turned a profit on every unit sold.

      but they have turned a generation off

      That "turned off generation" already abandoned them on the gamecube. But nintendo found a whole new market of people to replace them.

      continued rehashes of old franchises.

      Lets see what's most anticipated according to gamestop's website:

      Assassin's Creed III
      Another Ghost Recon
      Witcher 2
      Borderlands 2
      Tiger Woods PGA 13
      Another Star Wars Game
      Halo 4
      Prototype 2
      Warriors Orochi 3
      Darksiders II
      Resident Evil 6
      Another Bioshock
      Max Payne 3 (with BONUS!)
      Sniper Elite 2
      Dragons Dogma * first game that is not a continued rehash of an existing franchise?
      Another Medal of Honor
      Lollipop Chainsaw * second game that is not an existing franchise
      Far Cry 3

      Yep, continued rehashes of old franchises for the win. And a near uninterupted parade of FPS games. How is it you are not turned off by the xbox360?

      they need to out-power the big boys and deliver some adult games

      Why is that? There aren't enough Medals of Honors and Halo's on your xbox that you'd buy a wii 2.0 to play even more of them?

      Hate to break it to you, but Nintendo already lost you. Pandering to you with a parade of FPSes featuring giant robots that dismember alien zombie hookers isn't really going to win you back... that market is saturated.

      Going after new markets is a winning strategy... New Super Mario Bros Wii is probably one of the best games I've ever played. Super Paper Mario and Super Mario Galaxy were great too. The Metroid Primes were well done,and Kirby's epic yarn was pretty much adorable, and the kids loved them all too.

    8. Re:My personal opinion by tgd · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Wii won in unit sales, but they have turned a generation off with a (yes, huge-selling) fad device and continued rehashes of old franchises.

      And, more to the point, lost *badly* in game sales. There are a LOT of people with Wii consoles, and most of them have Wii Sports and maybe another game or two.

      That didn't put Nintendo out of business, as they don't sell the Wii at a loss, but it sure limits the upside of each sale. Sony and MS make dramatically more money per console sold, because they sell so many more games per console.

    9. Re:My personal opinion by tgd · · Score: 3, Informative

      I could go on and on and on... Use google and see how MS really treated their customers when the RROD was first reported.

      Yeah, if you actually called them and didn't gripe to your friends on the Internet, or try to pitch a fit at the store, they replaced them. And did so very quickly. (The early failure repairs were 2-day in-and-out shipping, and if you had it to UPS first thing Monday, you frequently had it back before the weekend.)

      A lot of companies got burned during that time by the switch to no-lead solder... and Microsoft, unlike a lot of consumer electronics companies, stood behind their devices.

    10. Re:My personal opinion by AngryDeuce · · Score: 4, Informative

      Yeah, okay dude.

      I don't actually know anyone that hasn't had to replace their Xbox 360 console at least once due to it either getting the RRoD or that bullshit where it just stops reading the fucking discs. I'm on my third, the first one died 2 years after purchase, sent it in and got it replaced, it died again about a year and half later (just after the 3 year extended warranty, of course), so I had to purchase a new one out of pocket since obviously I'm not about to just say fuck it when I've got like 40 games and a ton of accessories for it. Now that one is even making a grinding sound and taking forever to load discs so I'm sure I'm going to have to replace that one soon, too. At least I can keep using it as a Netflix box, I guess, but considering I've invested already $700+ dollars into it ($500 for the Elite that died, $200 for the replacement Arcade unit), that does little to soften the blow.

      My PS3 and Wii are both still going strong 5 years later. My Playstation 2 is still going strong (although I admit I had to readjust the laser height at one point) and I bought that at least 10 years ago, my N64 still works at 15 years old, my SNES, NES, and Gameboy still work, they're all over 20 years old. Hell, my original Xbox even still works (although I hardly ever use it, not since I last played through KOTOR 1 & 2 a year or so ago in preparation for The Old Republic).

      My point is, obviously there is something different about the 360 when all these other consoles are still going strong after so many years (and I put more hours than I can count on some of them, I'm big into JRPGs, so my PS2 had many, many 12 hour days, as did my SNES). Meanwhile, it seems like you fucking breathe on a 360 funny and the thing self-destructs.

      I admit, I don't know what the quality is like with the newest consoles with the redesigned cases and ventilation and everything, but Microsoft really screwed the pooch with their older models. Either that, or it's all a ploy to get us to buy the same fucking console over and over again, in which case I'd say they succeeded spectacularly. I know one thing, I'll be damned if I buy the next one right away. I'm giving them at least 2 years to get the kinks worked out first because lord knows they're probably going to need it. I'm not even a Microsoft hater, I've put a lot of hours on my 360, but nowhere near what I've put on those older consoles, and certainly not enough to justify it's ridiculous failure rate even just in my own personal experiences, and like I said, I don't know anyone that has had a vastly different experience than I have with the hardware.

    11. Re:My personal opinion by Doctor_Jest · · Score: 3, Informative

      I always heard it was the last-minute addition of the HDD unit destroying the airflow on the system slowly (or quickly depending upon who you asked) cooking the GPU and melting it off the mobo.

      Microsoft's last minute addition of the HDD at the top of the unit did muck with the airflow, and I think they made a "command" decision to release it flawed (knowing it was flawed) rather than not be "first" this generation. It cost them money for sure, but in my case, it cost a ton of goodwill... I will not be an early adopter of another Microsoft console. And I'm sure I'm not alone...

      --
      It's the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man.
    12. Re:My personal opinion by Kjella · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Nintendo proved that you could sell an underpowered console at a profit from day one and still make piles of money. Apple and numerous Android manufacterers have shown that you can sell a nifty device at a decent profit margin and satisfy millions of people with $1 games.

      Yeah, if anything I think it's the other way around. Casual gamers are often very casual - a $1 smartphone/tablet game may be enough, why get a $200-300 console? In 2006 there really weren't many other casual gaming options except flash games, in 2013 there are plenty. Hell, sometimes they drive an insanely crazy bargain against themselves, for example I got Hector: Badge of Carnage for the iPhone and it's a steal for $3 - actually 3x$1 so you can try it for a dollar, as opposed to paying $19,99 on the Telltalegames site. I can get Angry Birds for the PC at a bargain price of only 6.47 GBP. It's like they don't want to sell for the PC at all unless you're hemorrhaging money.

      As for the xbox/ps3, I think they both know the next generation will last much longer than this one - just look at graphics card reviews and how far they have to crank it up to 2560x1600 at Ultra/Extreme/Enthusiast/Maximum quality level and the most punishing AA modes to show the difference. The next gen consoles will have full HD and "enough" shaders for a 1920x1080 screen and will not be outdated for at least a decade. They're waiting because they want to have a little edge over the other - better to have an edge in 10 years than be first to the market for 1 year. Microsoft couldn't honestly couldn't care about their positioning relative to the Wii U, it's their positioning relative to the PS4 that matters to them.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    13. Re:My personal opinion by vux984 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Unfortunately a lot of the hotly anticipating games you used as an example are not for the Wii.

      That would be because I went to gamestops most anticipated releases for Xbox 360 page.

      Where all I saw was a list of "continued rehashes of old franchises"... which is what the OP was complaining about being "the problem" with the Wii.

      The top 2 games on the list for the Wii were both new IPs from what i could tell which was interesting, but the rest of the list was sequels and movie tie ins.

      But my point wasn't that Wii games aren't largely sequels... because they are. My point was that singling out sequals as being a wii problem is absurd, given the xbox 360 list is almost nothing but sequels too.

      Sure Nintendo has Mario Bros, Metroid, and Kirby franchises but the existence of these franchises isn't enough to counter the larger number and much more popular and profitable titles that are coming out on the PS3 and Xbox 360.

      Which all appeal to primarily to people like the OP. That's all they play, that's all they want to play. Nintendo jumping in to the "15-30 year old boy who wants to play a supersoldier" fray with a hey look-at-me-too title isn't going to work.

      It will alienate the base they cater to and grew with with the Wii... and the 15-30 old guy with with his xbox live gold account is going to sneer at it no matter what it does... if they make even one mario title it'll be etched in their minds as the kiddie-platform that they don't want their freinds to even know they ever enjoyed.

      Nintendo is right to forge a different path.

      I do agree the hardware really should be stronger this next round - HD is a must now. But not being able to play all the non-exclusive titles that are heavily marketed at the xbox/ps3 crowd isn't really hurting it. Even if the Wii was equal to a ps3 or xbox... do you really think its going to be the platform of choice for the CoD crowd?

      I don't.

  2. So much for the traditional 5-year lifespan by crazyjj · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Just keep in mind, MS and Sony, that every year your systems age is another year for more of your users to look at their friends' new PC's and say "Wow, that blows away my console!" Being more-and-more obsolete is not a good position to be in in the videogaming world. Every time I've turned away from consoles in the past, it's been because I was impressed by how advanced the PC's had gotten compared to the consoles.

    --
    What political party do you join when you don't like Bible-thumpers *or* hippies?
    1. Re:So much for the traditional 5-year lifespan by Joehonkie · · Score: 4, Funny

      I know, Microsoft loses so much when you buy a Windows PC.

    2. Re:So much for the traditional 5-year lifespan by 0123456 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Every time I've turned away from consoles in the past, it's been because I was impressed by how advanced the PC's had gotten compared to the consoles.

      Fortunately 90% of PC games are now just crappy console ports so they don't have to worry about the PC looking better.

    3. Re:So much for the traditional 5-year lifespan by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yay that lame ass argument again. Right now you can put together a PC for $650 that will be better specced then even the next gen consoles will be. There is no reason to spend $500 on a GPU unless you are gaming across 3 monitors.

    4. Re:So much for the traditional 5-year lifespan by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And the other 10% are actually worth playing.

    5. Re:So much for the traditional 5-year lifespan by Xphile101361 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Damn, wish I could do those sort of things on the computer.

    6. Re:So much for the traditional 5-year lifespan by 0123456 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Within a few phone generations (which are remarkably short) we'll have pretty staggering graphics capability on our cell phones.

      Indeed. In a few years you might be able to play a game on a tiny phone display which looks as good as a current console.

      You might even be able to play it for ten minutes before the battery goes flat.

    7. Re:So much for the traditional 5-year lifespan by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      So you're a Linux user, eh?

  3. Why release a new one? by who_stole_my_kidneys · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The current Xbox 360 is still generating massive amounts of revenue, http://blogs.technet.com/b/microsoft_blog/archive/2012/01/12/xbox-360-extends-win-streak-to-12-straight-months-with-banner-holiday-sales.aspx, if they introduce a new platform, it will kill off the current version and forego the millions in additional revenue by extending the life of the 360. only when sales start to slump will the 720 be announced.

  4. Re:And why would I want to? by gknoy · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Try looking a little deeper into the crystal ball.

    If I can use my phone as a console, playing games on a large TV with a wireless controller, I am pretty certain that I'll also be able to use (or already wearing!) a wireless Bluetooth headset as well. The phone menu will allow me to answer my phone and chat to friends, or use Google+ Hangouts to have team based voice chat going. This doesn't seem like particularly far-fetched science fiction.

    As an added bonus, you can bring your phone with you to your friend's house, and access your apps, your saved progress, your controller settings, your favorite servers, etc. I think that would be extremely awesome. God help you if you lose it or someone steals it, of course, but by then I'll hope to have Steam For Phones that will let me re-download anything I've bought already. (Does the Android market do that already?)