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Facebook To Go Public On Friday, May 18

redletterdave writes "The IPO on everyone's minds for the past few years — and possibly the biggest one in history — is upon us: Facebook will finally make its Wall Street debut on Friday, May 18, 2012. Sources also say Facebook will begin its IPO roadshow on Monday, May 7, and will eventually list its shares on the Nasdaq (not NYSE) with the ticker symbol 'FB.' Facebook looks to raise anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion during its roadshow to achieve a $100 billion valuation, which would make it one of the biggest IPOs of all-time."

50 of 182 comments (clear)

  1. Elephant in the room by Idetuxs · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Someone have to say it: Bubble

    There.

    1. Re:Elephant in the room by Yvanhoe · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I hope so. I fear it is not. Facebook is indeed profitable. I doubt it has much room left to grow a lot but it is a company that is worth a lot already.

      My bet is that the IPO will be a success, just not an hysteric one.

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    2. Re:Elephant in the room by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Facebook is indeed profitable.

      But merely a fad. Just as much as AOL chat rooms, Friendster and MySpace, and possibly even YouTube and Twitter.

      There's nothing demanding that users continue to user Facebook, nothing binds their behavior, and worst of all, user interest can easily evaporate overnight.

    3. Re:Elephant in the room by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      My bet is that, just like in most IPOs, the only people to make money from it will be the institutional investors that get in as preferred (early access before normal trading). They'll then cash out as early trading and the "day trader" mentality causes the price to go spiking up. The folks that buy during that spike will be left holding the (empty) bag. Again, as usual. This seems to always happen on these "big" IPO offers. Google's was the same way. Now - if you buy during the spike, you might still make money if you can steel yourself to hold onto it for awhile. Maybe. If you are lucky. Otherwise, for folks like the average slashdot reader, it is a "don't buy".

    4. Re:Elephant in the room by SScorpio · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Of course the normal Facebook user doesn't pay anything. They are the product not the customer. Facebook's customers are all the companies that advertise on it, or buy people's private data.

    5. Re:Elephant in the room by icebike · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The same way Google makes a profit: spying on you.

      You can hardly call it spying when the sheep willingly post the details of their daily life voluntarily.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    6. Re:Elephant in the room by craigtp · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Facebook is indeed profitable.

      But merely a fad. Just as much as AOL chat rooms, Friendster and MySpace, and possibly even YouTube and Twitter.

      There's nothing demanding that users continue to user Facebook, nothing binds their behavior, and worst of all, user interest can easily evaporate overnight.

      Oh but there is something demanding that users continue to use Facebook: The Network Effect.

      And within Facebook's network effect, Critical mass has long since been surpassed and Metcalfe's Law has grown to such a large proportion that, for current users of Facebook, leaving Facebook is akin to simply switching off the internet altogether.

    7. Re:Elephant in the room by 19thNervousBreakdown · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yeah, you wouldn't want to end up like one of those fools that bought Google stock from August 2004 - Dec 2005 and sold it at literally any time that wasn't Oct 2008 - May 2009. Or even worse, one of those morons that bought it in the first month when it was under $150 a share! I bet they feel dumb now for buying stock in a company that's already successful.

      --
      <xml><I><am><so><damn>Web 2.0</damn></so></am></I></xml>
    8. Re:Elephant in the room by DerekLyons · · Score: 5, Informative

      Google's was the same way.

      No, it wasn't. On opening day it closed at 100.35, and except for two days two weeks after their IPO... it's never been below that.

    9. Re:Elephant in the room by similar_name · · Score: 5, Insightful

      They spy on you whether you have an account or not. Unless you actively make the effort to block their servers from loading widgets on every other page you visit. It may not link you to a name but it does link you to an IP address which often links you to a rough location (and it's just a matter of making a deal with your ISP to link the IP to your name). If Facebook ever gets an ad network going off of Facebook they will have a lot of info related to your ip to serve those ads.

    10. Re:Elephant in the room by knorthern+knight · · Score: 3, Interesting

      > They spy on you whether you have an account or not. Unless you actively make
      > the effort to block their servers from loading widgets on every other page you visit.

      That's what I do. Here are their IP addresses in CIDR format and as address ranges. This includes blocking their "Like" buttons.

      66.220.144.0/20 66.220.144.0 - 66.220.159.255
      69.63.176.0/20 69.63.176.0 - 69.63.191.255
      69.171.224.0/19 69.171.224.0 - 69.171.255.255
      74.119.76.0/22 74.119.76.0 - 74.119.79.255
      173.252.64.0/18 173.252.64.0 - 173.252.127.255
      204.15.20.0/22 204.15.20.0 - 204.15.23.255

      --

      I'm not repeating myself
      I'm an X window user; I'm an ex-Windows user
    11. Re:Elephant in the room by twright0 · · Score: 2

      Whenever Facebook reports user numbers, they report *active* users, which they define as using the site once in the last 30 days. You can argue how "active" someone is if they use it once a month, but they don't count your friends who "haven't checked their facebook page in months".

  2. Best avoided by icebike · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This will open low, shoot high, then nosedive and stay low for a long time.
    You can play in this sandbox, as long as you understand that all the sand belongs to someone else, and at bets you can get in, fill your bucket, dump it, and get back out before any one notices you are there.

    Everybody recognizes this for what it is, a cashout for the major FB players.

    --
    Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    1. Re:Best avoided by Kenja · · Score: 5, Interesting

      When it drops low enough I'll buy a single share so I can get on the investors mailing list. Cant wait to see documented information about how they make their money. Should be a fun read.

      --

      "Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
    2. Re:Best avoided by icebike · · Score: 5, Informative

      I'm on a lot of such lists, and you will never read anything of interest there.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    3. Re:Best avoided by alexander_686 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Why borther with buying a share? Anything they send out to shareholders they also have to publish on SEC's Edger. It is a great little resource.

      http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html

      Now, buy a share of Berkshire Hathaway. You can get the information off the SEC, but Buffett really knows how to put on a show.

    4. Re:Best avoided by Anne_Nonymous · · Score: 2

      You don't have to be a shareholder. You can get their financials at the SEC's website.

    5. Re:Best avoided by icebike · · Score: 5, Insightful

      There are very few companies like Facebook whom have no documented source of their income. They are under legal obligation to provide investors with mission & earning statements.

      I've read a lot of them.

      You will find precious little detail in the revenue side of a 10K. You get exactly what they want you to get, while sales data is masked and obfuscated and aggregated to the point that you can't tell anything from the Balance sheet. Entire massive R&D projects can be hidden on the costs side of the ledger, such that companies like Apple can spring an entire new concept in in smart phones after three years of development with no one having any clear idea of the cost involved, or even that the project was underway from reading financial statements and annual reports.

      Seriously, if you think Sarbanes–Oxley or GAAP rules or SEC regulations provide any clarity or a level playing field you are delusional.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    6. Re:Best avoided by vlm · · Score: 4, Informative

      You have it wrong. They have to document a semi-detailed, lets say, one page income statement listing classes of income, and it gets stamped with the approval of a corrupt auditing agency (recall recent scandals where it was all faked).

      Trust me, Wisconsin Energy does not give me a copy of individual bills in each quarterly statement. You get lines like "$1B revenue from electric"

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    7. Re:Best avoided by S77IM · · Score: 2

      Is there a betting pool on how long Zuck stays in charge of FB post-IPO?

      I'll start, at, oh, 3.5 years.

        -- 77IM

      --
      Student: Is it true that the foundation of the universe is paradox?
      Master: Well, yes and no.
    8. Re:Best avoided by vlm · · Score: 2

      Easier for it to just show up in the mail. I'm very, very, lazy.

      Then you're going to be pissed off that several of my reports are now email delivered. No snail mail, or less, anyway.

      Examples:

      Wisconsin energy is a paper only company. I believe email delivery is optional for quarterlies, but they like to snail mail a big ole paperback book once a year for annual.

      I believe PRPFX (a mutual fund) is a email only company. I might have gotten an annual in the snail mail, but I haven't seen a quarterly from those guys in .. forever I guess.

      Definitely SLV and GLD (ETFs) are email only companies. I haven't seen paper from those guys since silver was $7 and gold was $500 (which incidentally is pretty close to my DCA share price)

      I believe this is a situation where they're legally required to snail mail upon request to a stockholder, so if you really wanted you could send them snail mail and they'd reply with a nice book, in case your wood stove needed kindling. You should make the shareholder services office earn their pay...

      I would guess FB will just publish the data to a page and tell people to friend it.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    9. Re:Best avoided by Dunbal · · Score: 2

      No, this will open high, and go even higher, because of exactly the expectation you describe. Then when you and people like you have been stopped out of your short positions, it will nosedive when creative accounting fails to deliver the growth that Wall St. always expects.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    10. Re:Best avoided by alexander_686 · · Score: 2

      Why 3.5 years?

      MZ holds over 30% of the company so he is going to have a lot of power. And the IPO is for a thin slice (IIRC 5%) so there not going to be a big shift in who is sitting on the board. And there is no debt - which would be another avenue which could force change.

      This is very different then Steve Jobs and Apple or Jerry Yang of Yahoo - who held far less. Even if FB blows up he should be able to hold out for a long time.

    11. Re:Best avoided by alexander_686 · · Score: 2

      Here are the rules:

      Publish = File and send - either a paper or email copy - shareholder's perfance.
      File = Put a copy up on the company's web site and SEC's Edger. Mailings only happen if a person requests it.

      Public Companines must publish once a year, and file the other 3 times.
      Funds must publish twice a year (Annual and Biannual) and file twice a year.

      Annual reports tend to be audited by a independent 3rd party, everything else is held to a lower standard.

    12. Re:Best avoided by ThatsMyNick · · Score: 2

      Even post IPO, he would control more than 50% of the voting rights. I would expect him to be the CEO, practically for ever (even if he runs Facebook to ground).

    13. Re:Best avoided by kiwimate · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Read the footnotes. That's where you'll find the really juicy stuff. Not everything is disclosed, certainly; but the footnotes are where the traders spend the vast majority of their time.

  3. Eh?? by jamstar7 · · Score: 4, Funny

    I thought it already was public. My personal data is all over the internet.

    Oh, they're taking their STOCK public. *Nevermind*...

    --
    Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
  4. Imma let you finish by MrEricSir · · Score: 4, Funny

    "...which would make it one of the biggest IPOs of all-time."

    Look Google I'm really happy for you and Imma let you finish. But Facebook is the BIGGEST IPO OF ALL TIME!

    --
    There's no -1 for "I don't get it."
  5. Re:Organ donations ... by Sez+Zero · · Score: 3, Informative

    What is Facebook's actual revenues? Something like $200M quarterly?

    LA Times is reporting $3.7B annual revenue, so an average $925M quarterly.

  6. Epic Win and Epic Fail.. by who_stole_my_kidneys · · Score: 2

    The stock price will sky rocket on the ipo, then drop off a bit a week later (as have others). by this time next year the price will be one third of what people will pay May 18, unless they go the MySpace route and die a slow death.

  7. Re:I thought Nasdaq tickers were 4 letters? by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 2

    EA is on NASDAQ with ticker symbol EA.

  8. It isn't Facebook that's being valued... by dryriver · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This IPO will basically put a concrete dollar price on what having the "private data" of 800+ million human beings in your fist is worth. Of course the idiots who run Wall Street will value this "precious resource" at Billions of Dollars. That's the only thing the internet means to them: A way to track people, get at their most private data, to then mine that data to devise new ways of selling goods and services to them. ----------- It isn't Facebook that's being valued here. Its "US". The IPO will put a dollar price on what the private data of X million FB users is worth.-------- Someday Facebook will face a serious downturn just like AOL and Yahoo!, and maybe disappear from the internet landscape altogether. That day can't come soon enough considering that the only thing FB trades in is other people's privacy.

    --
    Why did the chicken cross the road? Because Elon Musk put an AI chip in its head.
  9. No need. by InvisibleClergy · · Score: 2

    Zuckerburg already allowed my app on his page, so I've already got all the info of him and his friends.

  10. FB? really? by vlm · · Score: 4, Interesting

    In the real estate biz FB means "f*cked buyer" like a guy who bought at a multigenerational top of a housing bubble, or a guy trying to do landlording from another coast, or a guy stuck paying two mortgages because the old house won't sell, guy who bought without contingencies/no inspection and got screwed, guy who believed the lying commissioned real estate agent when she said there were multiple offers so he should raise his bid but there were no offers (she tried that on me and my wife, I laughed at her) etc. Basically a loanowner who didn't get the house he was expecting. Makes all the comments "FB this" and "FB that" sound much funnier.

    --
    "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
  11. Re:Organ donations ... by leonardluen · · Score: 3, Insightful

    a $100 billion company should be making a truckload more than that.

    google (current market cap $200billion) pulls in about $10billion in quarterly revenue...

    judging by that facebook is at best a $20 billion company. about 1/10th the size of google.

    yeah, it is a bit more complicated than that, but still facebook is worth nowhere near $100 billion. and really they don't have a whole lot of growth left, they have saturated their market pretty well.

  12. Yep... by koan · · Score: 3, Informative

    Bubble goes pop.

    Facebook's ad business isn't very (or so some claim) because of the way they target ads (like TV ads) so expect a lot fo change (again) in Facebook's policies.

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/05/02/businessinsiderfacebooks-lousy-ad-b.DTL

    Your Facebook ID becomes the way you pay for everything online and offline. Long-term, one of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg's goals seems to be for your Facebook ID to be your ID everywhere. Given smartphone adoption, you can imagine this happening online and off. If that were to happen, the easiest way for Facebook to make money would be to facilitate offline and online transactions. Potential: PayPal, part of eBay, has an enterprise value close to $20 billion or so. Visa has a market cap of $100 billion.

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/facebooks-lousy-ad-business-is-making-its-ipo-is-looking-hairier-by-the-minute--heres-why-it-doesnt-matter-2012-5#ixzz1tkK42pqr

    --
    "If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
    1. Re:Yep... by koan · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Oh and this...

      Venture capitalists fund startups that leverage Facebook data to disrupt their incumbents. Former Facebook executive Chamath Palihapitiya left the company to start a venture capital firm with a single mission: fund companies that will use Facebook's open APIs to take over large, calcified industries like banking, education, and healthcare. Palihapitiya is funding a banking startup, for example, that will give potential customers a credit score based on their Facebook activity. Potential: Unknown. The idea is that Facebook will profit from companies using its data to disrupt incumbants the way it figured out how to profit from Facebook gamesmaker Zynga's disruption of the videogame industry.

      Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/facebooks-lousy-ad-business-is-making-its-ipo-is-looking-hairier-by-the-minute--heres-why-it-doesnt-matter-2012-5#ixzz1tkNTU9mH

      Scary.

      --
      "If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
  13. Re:FB? really? by rk · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I had that experience, where a house was listed at X, but was told that really it was X+delta close to X itself, because there was bidding war in progress. We walked away right then, and the realtor trying it on us then tried to backpedal, whereupon I told her "You're playing games with us, and because of that, I won't buy this house at ANY price, because I will assume any offer I make that you or your client find acceptable will screw me." It's a form of bait-and-switch and I won't play that game... but a lot of people "fall in love" with a house and have to have it. I guess I've had too many houses in my life to really get that attached to them.

  14. Re:Facebook going IPO is NOT interesting by scot4875 · · Score: 2

    Not proud enough to sign your name to it, apparently.

    --Jeremy

    --
    Jesus was a liberal
  15. NO. Not a bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Facebook is God's gift to marketing data. People willingly give their personal data to have their little ego sites.

    Here's the kink: Most of that data is bullshit. And frankly, I love it. Here's an example:

    This little old lady I know was told by her kids and friends (myself NOT included - I told her to NOT have a FB account!) to give bullshit data. She really wanted an account, so we insisted that she give enough for those assholes at FB to allow her to open an account. She had to give a cell number - it freaked the poor thing out.

    You see, when she FIRST opened one, a neighbor down the street found out all this detail about her that she NEVER published on her FB page. HE then explained what a privacy violation FB is and how one can get all this info on someone with a FB account - GOD BLESS HIM! He SHOWED to her how FB can be and will be used for EVIL.l She saw the light - even though she needed an FB account to communicate with her family (so she says) - she put in bogus data.

    Moral of the story, if you're a marketer and you're using FB for data mining pupsoses - AHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA!

    Fuck you!

    1. Re:NO. Not a bubble by dcollins117 · · Score: 2

      So either marketing departments are really good at marketing the need for a marketing department, or maybe there are a few tools available to cut through the crap and figure out which data out of the mountain of data is actually important and relevant, and which isn't.

      And the answer is: marketing departments are really good at marketing the need for a marketing department

  16. Re:Facebook going IPO is NOT interesting by tompaulco · · Score: 2

    Struggling to find where the grandparent mentioned race. Now, some stereotypes were mentioned that are typically associated with a race, but anyone that jumps from those stereotypes and immediately thinks of a race is a racist.

    --
    If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
  17. Re:32 years to the day after Mt. St. Helens by X0563511 · · Score: 2

    What's your point? Do you have one?

    If you start putting dates into Wikipedia you'll find lots if interesting things happen on various days, and they mean exactly nothing to things happening on same day, now.

    --
    For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
  18. Re:Pump & Dump by Dunbal · · Score: 2

    Can't wait to see the look on your face. Not because I disagree with you, but because the market is not as rational as you think. EVERYONE expects it to flop, which is exactly why it's going to skyrocket. There is a vast amount of money to be made even out of horse manure. So all the short sellers are in for a ride. All the little day traders who buy it for $X and sell it for $X + $0.05 are in for a ride. The only ones who are going to make money on this are the people who always make money - the ones who currently have money, can buy it at the open, can buy it all the way down the dip, and who can ride out the little ups and downs to sell it next year or so for a killing - just when you're convinced you should start buying it before you miss the boat.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  19. Re:FB? really? by vlm · · Score: 2

    Ah thats boring.
    Wait until it gets exciting, like plumbing leaks, or roof needs replacement.
    For extra fun, imagine court case involving the rental property. Or insurance claim (storm damage, etc).
    Another good entertainment is local code enforcement.
    Finally I'll assume that as a /.er you're pretty respectable, but some renters... are not. you can really work a guy across the country...

    Now there are property management companies that will take care of these kind of problems... for a fee, often rather high. Your $1600 check is nice, but until you factor in the costs of ownership, prop tax, maintenance can't be deferred forever especially if its rental property, repairs, mortgage if any...

    --
    "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
  20. Risk factor #29 by CaptSwifty · · Score: 2

    From the list of risk factors:

    29. Viruses, hacking, phishing and malware. Oh my.

    At least someone has a sense of humor.

  21. Re:I thought Nasdaq tickers were 4 letters? by TubeSteak · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The NASDAQ OMX equities exchanges currently participate in the National Market System Symbology Plan for the selection and use of 1-5 character root symbols, as governed by ISRA, the Intermarket Symbols Reservation Authority.

    NASDAQ, NYSE, and other exchanges like to reserve 1 and 2 letter ticker symbols in order to attract big companies to list on their exchange.

    F is for Ford
    S is for Sprint-Nextel
    T is for AT&T

    If you poke around, you'll discover companies you've never heard of, but who are major players in their market

    --
    [Fuck Beta]
    o0t!
  22. Re:Organ donations ... by KhabaLox · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I'd disagree about their growth potential. Certainly their user growth will slow down, but there are plenty of untapped revenue streams - for example mobile ads.

    But as for the rest I think you're pretty spot on. I took a quick scan of GOOGs 2011 numbers and they have about the same profit margin and a better debt ratio than Facebook, so it's hard for me to see the justification for having 1/2 the market cap of GOOG with ~1/10th the revenue and 1/10th the net income.

    --
    Ceci n'est pas un sig.
  23. Re:People still use facebook? by KhabaLox · · Score: 3, Funny

    mostly family or family allies.

    What are you, a Lannister?

    --
    Ceci n'est pas un sig.
  24. Re:Organ donations ... by leonardluen · · Score: 2

    sure they can expand into new markets, but then why haven't they done so already? they have the cash, they aren't doing this IPO to get cash to grow.

    so then tell me how they are worth anywhere near $100 billion? maybe in a few years, but wallstreet only cares about the next quarter, not a few years from now.