Solar X-Flare Blasts Directly Toward Earth

Freshly Exhumed writes with this excerpt from Space Weather: "Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend."

Comments

Summer Light

[orangebox]

The Aurora Forecast predicts a good show. Too bad I doubt it will get dark enough in AK for my friends to see. Hopefully I can see it down here in Washington!

Re:Summer Light

[scum-e-bag]

North/South. Same thing, different pole.

Revised Forcast

[rminsk]

The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday's X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud's expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely.

Is it so wrong?

[wierd_w]

Is it wrong of me to be disheartened that this CME isn't stronger?

I won't lie, a fairly large part of me (the part where the evil genius lives) wants a very very powerful geomagnetic storm to devistate our powergrids, knock out communications, fry satelites, and cause general chaos and havok.

I understand that engineers often have antisocial tendencies, and I fully comprehend the ramifications of this unusual desire, but I still retain it.

Is it so wrong?

Re:Is it so wrong?

[Grishnakh]

I actually agree with him to a certain extent, but instead of a CME, I'd rather see an asteroid hit the earth. I don't actually want anyone to die; I'd like it to hit an uninhabited area such as Antarctica or Siberia (like the Tunguska Event). The reason is simple: I think we humans need a good kick in the pants to work on our space program, so we can deal with problems like this (and also so we can achieve other things, like extracting resources offworld), but it doesn't look like it's going to happen until people get a good wake-up call. We've had a bunch of near-misses, including one a few weeks ago IIRC, but we haven't had a good asteroid strike since Tunguska in the early 1900s. Maybe if another Tunguska-sized event happened, people would finally get a clue, realize that there's much bigger ones out there (such as Apophis, which really is on a collision course with us) and get serious about dedicating resources to space programs. The old saying is "necessity is the mother of invention", but the corollary to that is that humans don't usually bother preparing for anything unless they've learned the hard way that they need to.

Re:Is it so wrong?

[Anonymous Coward]

I had similar desires for some kind of disaster, back when I was young and stupid.

I had no money and was looking at a lifetime of working for a living in a society with materialistic values I did not share. As far as I could tell, "the system" wasn't working for me, so I wanted to see it ended.

Fortunately for me, it did not end. If it did, I would have died right along with all the other millions of city-dwellers who would suddenly be without their influx of food. No farms+efficient food shipping = no food = starve to death or be eaten by starving cannibals (who will subsequently starve to death anyway). Sure, there are plenty of supermarkets in the city...all of which would be picked dry within a day. There is no viable source of food within a city that can supply the hordes of humans that dwell therein...it would be a grizzly end for all of us.

  The system was working for me then just as it is working for me now...people across the globe are growing food for me, making clothes for me, generating electricity for me, building computers for me, and so on. Everything I DO like about life is built for me by the hands of other humans...working a job is what I do in return. Sure, a few rich assholes with a disgusting sense of entitlement get to indulge in extreme luxury at our expense, and it is frustrating, but even so, the deal we get is still awesome (when reflected-upon by a clear mind).

Grow up, weird_w, your disaster would be your end and the end of everything you love.

Re:Is it so wrong?

[the_Bionic_lemming]

Yes, because a lot of people would die.

Our global society would be set back to 300 years ago, except no one has any experience living as a fucking pioneer; we're all air-conditioned and supermarket-fed. So everyone that doesn't have TEOTWAWKI preparations would die. And then most of the survivors would die of looters and starvation, and the looters would die of cholera and previously preventable illnesses.

So I find your opinion ignorant at best, sociopathic and homicidal at worst.

Heh. I have ammo, know how to hunt and skin, know how to preserve food, actually love the taste of squirrel, do my own garden and keep seeds up, understand how to make and maintain a well. Can rebuild old cars - ones without fancy electronical thingies.

And I'm a geek that earns a living as a programmer.

Granted, only a first generation American - but my parents and grandparents taught me how to not rely on supermarkets and stuff.

If the world fell apart, I'm mean enough to stick around for a long time.

Re:Is it so wrong?

[petsounds]

More aptly, the Big Red Button on the TRS-80 Model III computer. When I was in 4th grade, they had those in the school computer lab. The teachers had taped paper with "do not press!" on top of the button. Of course, a 4th grader wants nothing more than to press it. Our tendency towards chaos, or at least the curiosity to see what arises from a change in the system, starts young.

Re:Is it so wrong?

[geekoid]

Ah, yes that will be really handy when 100,000 people show up at your door.

People who think they will hide in the woods and fend for themselves are deluded.

"And I'm a geek that earns a living as a programmer."
yes, all the skills that are completely useless in that event.

Re:Is it so wrong?

[Hognoxious]

I can't tell you how many articles about some new "revolutionary" automotive engine I've seen over the past 20 years, and nothing ever comes of it, probably because it's all BS.

It's a conspiracy, man! The oil companies got a grip on the government.

There was this guy who invented an engine that, power for power, was roughly 50% more efficient than the ones commonly in use. Exxon offered to buy it, but the inventor said no; he figured they'd just lock it in a safe. Then weird things happened. He lost his job, then his house burned down only to find his insurance had been cancelled by persons unknown. He couldn't have sent the letter because he was out of the country.

He was telling me all this at the pub. I don't know how it ended up, he went to take a leak and never came back.

Re:Is it so wrong?

[amorsen]

Solar irradiation of the earth is 1600 EJ

This is wrong. Solar irradiation at 1 AU is somewhere in the region of 1350W/m^2. The Earth has a diameter of approximately 6371000m, which is a disc of 1.27*10^14 m^2. This gives 1.72*10^17W or 0.172EW. Over a year, 365.25*86400s, this comes to 5.400.000EJ.

Wikipedia is wrong.

In fact, from a different page on Solar energy, "Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ per year in biomass." Pretty impressive if solar irradiation is only 1,600EJ. And unlike the 1,600 EJ figure, this one actually comes with a useful citation.

The cited page, FAO on Energy conversion by photosynthetic organisms, chapter 2 has this to say:

"Approximately 5.7 x 1024 J of solar energy are irradiated to the earth's surface on an annual basis. Plants and photosynthetic organisms utilize this solar energy in fixing large amounts of CO2 (2x1011 t = 3x1021 J/year), while amounts consumed by human beings are relatively small, (3 x 1020 J/year) (1), representing only 10% of the energy converted during photosynthesis."

So, it is time for you to revise your ideas about how humanity should live.

Re:Power off and unplug computers tonight?

[Anonymous Coward]

Run to the store, buy some chocolate, eat it quickly, SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING and then wrap it in the chocolate foil. Than wait 72 hours for the flare to fully pass. Use the time free from the internets to visit the library and read a book about the Earth magnetic field.

Re:And now I get how the submission system works..

[Freshly Exhumed]

Dude I submitted it yesterday. Go play in the solar radiation.

Re:did they say it ALL was going to hit us?

[Deadstick]

We should only catch about 15 pieces of flair.

Re:nice.

[Lumpy]

"Who cares about a fucking hotdog."

The porn industry... You know how much money they could make if they had one of those!

Strong geomagnetic storms?

[Anonymous Coward]

While the news before the fact is great for those of us living some place with a chance of catching the aurora, I don't think there is any indication there will be strong geomagnetic storms. NOAA Space Weather Center is predicting only storm level of G1 with a chance of G2, which happens quite frequently. Usually if something big is coming, their alert timeline lights up with a lot more than a G1 or warning of A > 20. I've made a habit of taking the 10 seconds to check their alert page every time a relative links or talks about a story of some massive geomagnetic storm coming, and pretty much every time it shows (both before and after) that it was something minor that happens with a frequency of more than once a month.

Re:nice.

[Anonymous Coward]

Not good enough, frankly it surprises me you haven't heard the old adage "If you feed a man a hotdog, you've fed him for a day, if you teach a man to mine hotdogs you've fed him for life."

The Takeaway

[matunos]

Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Re:Power off and unplug computers tonight?

[istartedi]

I'm looting the vending machines at work as soon as my shift ends

Sigh... we just finished cleaning up from yesterday. The European central bank says something. Loot the vending machines. The Fed says something. Loot the vending machines. Your team loses. Loot the vending machines. Your team wins. Loot the vending machines. Some whack job on the radio says the world is ending. You guessed it. Loot the vending machines. I'm beginning to think that you guys will use any excue just to... what? They're looting the vending machines again? What is it this time? Somebody installed Linux on the desktop? Holy crap. Fuck posting on Slashdot. I'm going to LOOT THE VENDING MACHINE.

Re:Sat 14, Jul, 14:42:

[93 Escort Wagon]

And we are still here. Looks like the Earth`s magnetic field has protected us again. Thank god for a spinning Iron core. it would suck to be living on Mars right now.

On the bright side, you'd probably already be long dead due to the cold or the atmosphere.

Not considered a threat to the US power grid

[Animats]

Just checked the PJM dashboard, which shows what's going on for the power grid in the northeastern US. They haven't put up a Solar Magnetic Disturbance Warning for this event.

NOAA predicts a maximum A index of 25 and a maximum K index of 3 at low latitudes, 6 at high latitudes (Canada, roughly). PJM says they issue an alert when there's an A index of 40 or above or a K index of 5 or above. K=6 and 7 level events aren't serious problems; trouble occurs around 8 and 9.

The last event that caused a blackout was in 1989. Since then, more monitoring gear has been added and plans made for when this problem occurs. The basic effect is that the solar wind induces DC currents in the earth, causing a huge ground loop between distant grounding points. This causes DC current to flow through AC high tension lines, which heats up transformers and causes some confusion in measurements. Those DC currents are constantly monitored. When DC flows are observed, the AC currents on the line have to be reduced to prevent transformer overheating. It's an operational problem, but not a disaster.

(If you're really interested in this topic, here's the PJM training presentation that covers solar and magnetic disturbances. This is the perspective from the people who operate the power grid. "When solar magnetic disturbance is confirmed, Salem 1 and 2 units will reduce to 80% power and Hope Creek to 85% power...")

Re:nice.

[oztiks]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRvPINrnwRs

Re:And now I get how the submission system works..

[sjames]

Well, screw it then, I'm going to LOOT THE VENDING MACHINE!

Re:Power off and unplug computers tonight?

[Hognoxious]

That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. If the EMP causes arcin', sparkin' and malarkin' the paper could catch fire.

Damp it with a wet sponge, just to be sure.

Re:Oh, man

[Rei]

Or south, for that matter. I live in Iceland. I doubt it'll be dark enough at night to see northern lights unless they're *really* bright.