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Existing Solar Tech Could Power Entire US, Says NREL

derekmead writes "A new report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory finds that solar holds more potential to generate more power (PDF) than any other clean energy source. The NREL broke things down into four groups: urban and rural utility-scale photovoltaics (giant solar plants, basically) as well as rooftop solar and concentrated mirror arrays. Between those technologies, which are all already on the market, the NREL reckons there's a proven potential for solar to hit a capacity of 200,000 gigawatts in the United States alone. For some perspective, 1 gigawatt is what a single nuclear power plant might generate, and it's more than most coal plants. A gigawatt of capacity is enough to power approximately 700,000 homes."

29 of 589 comments (clear)

  1. We will get solar when there's a profit. by fustakrakich · · Score: 5, Insightful

    In a capitalist society, abundance is not a feature.

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    1. Re:We will get solar when there's a profit. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      ...and if every home can generate their own power at point of usage.. Well there is no long term market in that except panel cleaning.

    2. Re:We will get solar when there's a profit. by Darkness404 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Unlikely. If there was an easy and cheap way to use solar power, why wouldn't they? Of course part of the problem is that monopolies and government subsidies often distort the market when it comes to energy, but if there was truly a way for people to get cheap, reliable, easy solar energy, solar would be very popular. The problem is, solar is not cheap. And going off the grid by installing your own solar panels is neither cheap nor easy.

      One day, solar energy will be cost-effective in many places, but not today. Solar energy is great if you want to move off the grid, or if you're in a remote location, but for the average American, it simply isn't cheap enough yet.

      --
      Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
    3. Re:We will get solar when there's a profit. by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Interesting

      ...and if every home can generate their own power at point of usage.. Well there is no long term market in that except panel cleaning.

      Well, not exactly:

      * inverters blow out, occasionally needing replacement
      * sometimes you use more power than the panels can provide (especially if you have a garage)
      * a home with north-facing roof or on the north side of anything bigger than it doesn't fare so well.
      * as sibling said - the sun goes down every day.
      * if you have kids, odds are good they're going to throw something onto the roof. Odds are better that it'll be hard enough to crack the glass on a panel.
      * even top-end panels last about 25 years max before peak output drops below 80% of rated Wp.

      Finally, to make a panel, you have to burn an unholy amount of electricity just to feed the CZ furnaces for the wafers/cells (letting alone wafering, cell processing, panel construction, etc). It has to come from *somewhere*...

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    4. Re:We will get solar when there's a profit. by raygundan · · Score: 5, Interesting

      4x it's weight in toxic waste and greenhouse gasses

      That's not very much. Each kWh the panels generate saves roughly half a kilogram of greenhouse gasses based on the average generation mix in the US, for example. On average, a single one of the 15kg, 215-watt panels on our roof makes enough power to offset four times its weight in greenhouse gas every 23 days. Given their 25-year warranty, that's means that the panels will save roughly four hundred times the greenhouse gas that was produced in their construction, if your "four times the weight of the panel" number is correct.

    5. Re:We will get solar when there's a profit. by Mike_EE_U_of_I · · Score: 5, Informative

      * inverters blow out, occasionally needing replacement
      * sometimes you use more power than the panels can provide (especially if you have a garage)
      * a home with north-facing roof or on the north side of anything bigger than it doesn't fare so well.
      * as sibling said - the sun goes down every day.

      True.

      * if you have kids, odds are good they're going to throw something onto the roof. Odds are better that it'll be hard enough to crack the glass on a panel.

      Not true. Panels are designed to withstand pretty heavy hail hitting it at terminal velocity. Unless your kids are shooting at your roof with a gun, the panels should be fine.

      * even top-end panels last about 25 years max before peak output drops below 80% of rated Wp

      Not true. Standard guarantee is that panels will be at the 80% mark or higher at 25 years.

      Finally, to make a panel, you have to burn an unholy amount of electricity just to feed the CZ furnaces for the wafers/cells (letting alone wafering, cell processing, panel construction, etc). It has to come from *somewhere*...

      True. But energy payback time is down to between .5 and 1.4 years depending on exact technology used. That's from the EPIA March 2011 white paper, and things are surely better now.

    6. Re:We will get solar when there's a profit. by mosb1000 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yes, but the cheapness of the Chinese panels was due to price fixing. Once all the Americans were put out of business, the Chineese would have raised prices on their own to make back their investment, and the US would be closed out of the market. Not imposing those terrifs would have been short-sighted.

    7. Re:We will get solar when there's a profit. by norpy · · Score: 5, Funny

      I think he is referring to the EV you will have recharging in there?

      Or maybe he uses his garage as a grow room

    8. Re:We will get solar when there's a profit. by BLKMGK · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sorry but I disagee. Subsidies make sense when you're trying to jumpstart something like this that will have an overall benefit to the country. Spiking demand for panels to get production numbers up, getting a support system of installers built, and lowering the demand on local power production are all good reasons to want subsidies IMO. If I could get panels on my roof without having to get a second mortgage - on a home that is already upside down - then I'd do it and lower my demand on the grid. But I can't, costs are way over the top, so in my area where there appears to be almost no subsidies or other incentives this industry stagnates. I've got a terrific location for panels but no way will I spend the coin it would currently require...

      --
      Build it, Drive it, Improve it! Hybridz.org
    9. Re:We will get solar when there's a profit. by davester666 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Just build the fucking Dyson Sphere and be done with it.

      --
      Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
  2. You'll Have To Claw That Oil Out Of My Cold Dead.. by MightyMartian · · Score: 5, Funny

    Don't bother us with your pathetic alternative energies. We have to burn every fucking ounce of long-chain hydrocarbons, use up every ounce of radioactive ore, burn every ounce of methane and other simple hydrocarbon, before we even consider your pathetic green hippy alternative energy sources. Only fags and Commies believe in generating electricity by anything other than CO2-vomiting power plants. Oh, and CO2 is totally harmless, no matter how fucking much of it you puke out.

    God bless oil! The only way oil could be better is if I could fuck or eat it! Now get off my lawn, you pathetic Marxist hippies.

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  3. gigawatt...ho hum by CrowdedBrainzzzsand9 · · Score: 5, Funny

    1 gigawatt is what a single nuclear power plant might generate, and it's more than most coal plants

    On the other hand, that's barely enough for one jump back to the future.

  4. Pshaw by PopeRatzo · · Score: 4, Funny

    Like these so-called scientists know anything. I heard on the radio today that solar energy is baloney and if the radio says it, then that's plenty good enough for me and anybody who says different is obviously biased.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  5. 700,000 homes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Not that I think solar's a bad idea, but there's an assertion made in this (stated as if it were a fact) that a gigawatt of electricity is enough to power 700,000 homes which I think may not bear scrutiny.

    First, you need more peak energy production with solar than with fossil fuels or nuclear, because you also have to be storing up energy for dark hours/cloudy days.

    Second, that sounds like it's estimating some pretty low consumption per household, which probably isn't realistic. Electric consumption per household is on the increase, and I'd expect this to continue. More so if there's a move toward electric/hybrid vehicles recharged at night.

  6. Solar power at night is easy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    They have tested and proven that "molten salt" can be produced by aiming a field of mirrors at a high tower. The salt is double the temperature of boiling water. It gets stored underground in big tanks or caverns. Then a portion of the heat is used (24 hours a day) to boil water and run a conventional steam turbine hooked up to a conventional generator. The system can run for 3 days with no sunlight.

    1. Re:Solar power at night is easy by X0563511 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So, it's a fancy battery (just storing thermal energy until conversion to electricity, instead of storing the electricity).

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    2. Re:Solar power at night is easy by rrohbeck · · Score: 4, Informative

      Correct but it solves the main issue of solar power: That it's not available during the night.
      The molten salt keeps hot for days so intermittency is no longer a significant issue.

  7. Re:Wow by Hentes · · Score: 5, Informative

    Solar power towers can store energy efficiently in molten salt and achieve continuous output.

  8. Re:duh by Fished · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Seriously, building such things is not a "cost" but an investment. Just allocate the whole cost of the past several Middle-Eastern wars to your power bill and see how it goes for ya.

    --
    "He who would learn astronomy, and other recondite arts, let him go elsewhere. " -- John Calvin, commenting on Genesis 1
  9. Solar vs. Nuclear: Mars Rover Edition by tp1024 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Spirit and Opportunity were powered by solar panels delivering 140W.

    Curiosity, 5 times heavier, has a radionuclide battery delivering 125W.

    Despite being much heavier, Curiosity will be faster and more effective than either Spirit or Opportunity.

    The difference, of course, is that nuclear power is being delivered constantly, while solar power needs sun shine, varies over the day and depends on weather and season.The 1GW of propaganda power is what you get under ideal conditions - in other words, never. A nuclear power plant rated at 1GW will deliver this and is capable of delivering it for months without a break. On a yearly basis, 1GW in the shape of a nuclear power plant will deliver 10 times as much energy as 1GW of solar power in Germany (about 5 times more for solar power in deserts/arid areas).

    And that's without considering the need to store energy from solar power plants in order to use this power when it is needed. Both in terms of the cost in money and energy.

    If you compare solar power with anything else in the way this article does, you're deliberately deceiving the readership and nothing else.

  10. Cost is important! by xzvf · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I've looked at putting solar panels on my house, and it will cost $30K after tax breaks and credits. The life span of a solar panel is 15-20 years with a denigration of efficiency of about 25% over that period. Then they will have to be replaced again. The payback period is roughly 10-12 years, so I'd come out ahead, but I have to make a significant capital purchase and live in the house for over a decade. What happens if I get a new job that requires me to move next year? The $30K investment in the house doesn't raise it's value that amount. For this to work, the payback period will have to drop to 5-6 years, and solar panels will have to be considered a viable option. Geo-thermal heat pumps, vertical wind turbines, efficient appliances, zone cooling and heating, tankless water heaters and (to channel Jimmy Carter) sweaters have more reasonable payback.

    1. Re:Cost is important! by ceoyoyo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      No, it doesn't. So long as the solar panels pay for themselves, they're viable. It may not be viable for an individual to put them on his roof (mostly because they are undervalued in the market, if what you say is true) but that has nothing to do with whether you can go and build solar power plants to replace coal, nuclear, gas and oil.

      Just because one specific type of solar installation might not be perfect (for you) doesn't mean solar itself won't work.

    2. Re:Cost is important! by hey · · Score: 4, Interesting

      There are companies that will own the panels and charge you for them monthly like a utility. No upfront cost.
      eg -
      http://sanjosegreenhome.com/2010/01/27/secrets-of-residential-solar-lease-sweet-deal-or-disastrous-rip-off/

  11. Nuke plant 1GW? Disinform much? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The nuclear plant outside Phoenix produces over 3.3 GW. Stating that a nuclear plant "might produce" 1 GW to make your photovoltaic inefficiency sound better is disingenuous at best. Also, last time I checked urban rooftops are already cluttered with equipment, not just sitting there waiting for someone to exploit that real estate, and rural areas are often full of food producing, recreation having, wildlife harboring land. Why you'd want to cover that with vast arrays of shiny glass and metal I can't say. Just remember, all those arrays need plenty of grease, and petroleum products to keep them operational. They'll still result in plenty of pollution of their immediate footprint, which is enormous.

  12. Re:Stick it where the sun doesn't shine... by Eightbitgnosis · · Score: 4, Informative

    1) Today's systems are cheep enough that the lack of production at night doesn't keep them from being profitable to install. In addition solar's best energy producing hours are peak energy drawing hours when electricity can be more expensive.

    2) Residential solar systems can be grid tied into local power systems, or a system of batteries at the place of installation.

    3) The United States Government owns huge tracks of land. Google "government land map" and you should see. Those desert areas would be perfect for solar plants.

    4) Eather the drop in solar panel prices will be enough to offset their loss of efficiency in high heat, or a new design that will be efficient in the heat will come out.

    5) Maybe

    6(2nd 5?)) They've caused the price to fall like rock. That's awesome from the home solar installer's perspective. I've seen systems as low as $0.82 per max watt output most recently, and prices are falling even further. The business isn't over, but it's a bloodbath of companies getting out classed.

    7(6?)) Unless there are amazing drops in prices I see solar staying the more economical option.

    8(7?)) Nuclear reactors take 20+ years to build. The cost of solar will long since be cheaper than nuclear by the time any plant could be built.

  13. Re:You'll Have To Claw That Oil Out Of My Cold Dea by ceoyoyo · · Score: 4, Informative

    Actually, unless I messed up the math, this study is saying that the solar technology we have right now could be deployed to easily generate that much power, in the US alone.

  14. I have a few questions... by SternisheFan · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Wouldn't it be great if the U.S. started a public works program (not unlike the Hoover Dam project) that provided unemployed Americans jobs building solar/battery systems? Wouldn't that be a fantastic use of taxpayer's dollars? Why isn't that already happening to help out of work Americans?

  15. Re:Something is wrong here by timeOday · · Score: 4, Informative
    86km^2 = 7,400 square kilometers. Is that supposed to be a lot? The US already has 112,610 square kilometers of roads, buildings, and parking lots. Obviously you would start by using rooftops, but covered parking lots and roadways would be nice, too, and allow the energy to be used near where it is produced.

    Would it cost money? Sure. Then again, one tank of gas for a pickup truck costs $100 right now.

  16. Re:Thorium by tmosley · · Score: 5, Informative

    No, it isn't. A typical rare earth mine produces enough thorium to power to planet over a given year, and there are thousands of such mines, many of which are currently uneconomical because of thorium contamination (thorium isn't useful for much other than nuclear fuel, and is expensive to store/dispose of without reactors to burn it).

    The fact is that there is so much thorium in Earth's crust, you hardly need another energy source. If we ran out after 100,000 years, we would start mining other planets and moons for the stuff. It is so energy dense that such operations would be economical, even with our current primitive technology.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9M__yYbsZ4