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Recent Warming of Antarctica "Unusual But Not Unprecedented"

First time accepted submitter tomhath writes with a link to the abstract (full article paywalled) in Nature of an "Ice core study that concludes that climate change and associated melting of ice in Antarctica is more the norm than the exception, including rapid warming cycles as we appear to be in today. Study concludes: 'Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse.'"

16 of 163 comments (clear)

  1. Mod story down by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Story goes against slashdot groupthink. Climate deniers are stupid M$ users. Mod down!

    1. Re:Mod story down by medv4380 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Say what you want, but I've been having a hard time gauging Slashdot GroupThink on the subject of Climate change. It's ether:
      A) Climate Deniers are Stupid
      B) Climate Deniers are Justified
      or
      C) You're just a shill
      It really seems to come down to which group has the most Mod Points or which group has the most dedication to the thread. Each side just views the other as Trolls so it goes nowhere.

    2. Re:Mod story down by NatasRevol · · Score: 4, Funny

      Shut up, you stupid, justified shill of a troll.

      --
      There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
    3. Re:Mod story down by zmooc · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Climate deniers? This has nothing to do with them. No unusual warming is predicted for Antarctica for now. Global warming is expected to make the ocean currents that surround Antarctica stronger, thereby isolating it from warming factors and preventing it from heating up significantly for some time to come. It's a pity Al Gore's Unconvenient Truth has incorrectly linked the breaking up of the Ross ice shelf to global warming, leading many to believe something unusual is going on on Antarctica while it is not. Yet.

      --
      0x or or snor perron?!
    4. Re:Mod story down by RabidReindeer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Say what you want, but I've been having a hard time gauging Slashdot GroupThink on the subject of Climate change. It's ether:

      A) Climate Deniers are Stupid

      B) Climate Deniers are Justified

      or

      C) You're just a shill

      It really seems to come down to which group has the most Mod Points or which group has the most dedication to the thread. Each side just views the other as Trolls so it goes nowhere.

      Agreed, on top of the fact that expending energy on this particular study is wasteful. The story might as well be "water wet, sky blue", basically it's just more evidence that was already had, that temperature variations in the past have happened naturally (read: change MIGHT be non-anthropogenic.) Given that it's not proof or even indicative of anything happening in the present (since there was not a change taking place until after the point where anthropogenic affects came into being) it is particularly only useful to the deniers, so expect to see a lot of that.

      That's the difference between Science and cherry-picking facts to justify one's position. The normal pattern of fluctuation confirms nothing but that the normal pattern IS fluctuation. Climate Change doesn't happen in isolation or for only a single reason. It's part of a large and untidy cloud of general statistics of which this is just one.

  2. Extinctions by pr0nbot · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Mass extinctions are also unusual (but not unprecedented). Doesn't mean we shouldn't try to avoid causing them!

    1. Re:Extinctions by dietdew7 · · Score: 5, Funny

      How old are you?

  3. Local Climate is not Global Climate by RichMan · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Climate on a penninsula is vulnerable to changes in ocean currents. I would say nothing to see here unless global climates can be correlated with the local climate.

  4. not unprecedented by Dynedain · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Anything up to and including the entire planet being a blob of molten matter would be "not unprecedented".

    Just because the world was really hot during the Jurassic does not mean that humans would enjoy living in that state again.

    --
    I'm out of my mind right now, but feel free to leave a message.....
    1. Re:not unprecedented by tbannist · · Score: 4, Informative

      To put it in perspective, the estimate is that it would cost between 1-2% of world GDP (roughly equal to cost of sewer systems) to stabilise CO2 levels. And that estimate doesn't take into account technological innovation that might be spurred by the process. As I understand it, the estimates of the costs related to reducing sulphur oxide (SO) and Nitrous Oxide (NOx) levels turned out to be vastly over estimated by the industries involved. Both of those substances are currently regulated in the U.S. using cap and trade systems.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
  5. Re:Soon... by dildos_akimbo · · Score: 4, Funny

    I for one welcome our new...old....ones overlords!

  6. climate change is the only consistency by onyxruby · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There is no such thing as normal. Normal is only a concept that we as humans have because we live such pathetically short lives. Normal simply isn't a natural concept, and we need to quit thinking of nature as being "normal" and start accepting that "change" in part of the natural cycle and learn to adapt with it.

    The climate always has gone from warmer to colder and back and forth. Mostly it has been warmer, but it has also spent a fair amount of time under ice ages as well. I live in a place where I am 2000 miles from the nearest ocean and yet can find sea shells in my back yard from time to time. Things change and we need to quit fighting change and learn to adapt to our environment as our environment changes around us.

    The continents will shift (there's a museum in Paris with an exhibit I have heard about that depicts how far the North American plate moves away from the European plate each year). Antarctica will eventually move away from the pole and simply melt. Other natural phenomenon will occur and we have to accept that we are simply one part of nature and to learn to live as part of it.

    That being said, there is no reason not be be responsible with the environment and fight pollution for the sake of fighting pollution. Living sustainably is something that we have to do as our population becomes ever larger and we need to increase efforts for green energy like nuclear, thorium, solar and geothermal power sources. I really wish people would set aside politics on this and let science do the talking.....

    1. Re:climate change is the only consistency by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Here's the problem. You're likely correct - at least to some point. However, if you are at all interested in the 'fate of mankind' i.e., everybody else, then you notice that humans a perched on a fairly narrow ledge in terms of the survivability of large swatches of population. If you preturb the climate, especially if the changes are relatively rapid, a lot of people are going to a) starve b) displaced c) not be particularly happy about a and b and try to get a resources of those who aren't so drastically affected.

      That leads to conflict, upheaval, war and pestilence - fairly typical (but generally frowned upon) human behaviors.

      Note that climate pressures on human settlements are often the driver for abandonment / downfalls of civilizations (the Diamond and Tainter arguments) - it's just with 7 billion (or whatever) of us on the planet we're capable of making some really big messes at present.

      Then there are the persons of the tree hugging persuasion who feel that it's morally indefensible to take the entire planet down so we can have iPods and Big Macs. Your personal moral codes may vary.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  7. It's not evidence against or for global warming... by divisionbyzero · · Score: 5, Informative

    I wasn't going to respond since I have mod points and figured I'd mod up a good response instead. Too bad it's all been cheerleading for believers and deniers. Anyhow, this result isn't evidence for or against climate change. It's another data point. The fact that people think it is evidence for one side or the other shows most people still don't understand climate change. I know statistics and thermodynamics are hard as are non-linear systems. Blah, blah, blah.

    Here's the deal. Global warming refers to *average* temperature increase. In order for the average temperature to increase we should expect a higher frequency of warmer events or events driven by increasing warmth. We're not in a pot on a stove over a fire that constantly increases in temperature (actually don't pick at that analogy too much because at a microscopic level it is somewhat similar). As global average temperature increases we should see more warm days but not necessarily the hottest days ever recorded. So, in this case, if we see more frequent unusual events like this one or not, then we might have some evidence one way or the other, but by itself it tells us nothing.

  8. "Year without a summer" = 0.4C to 0.7C change by Maow · · Score: 4, Informative

    The Year without a Summer (1816) had a global temperature drop of 0.4C to 0.7C.

    It was thought to be caused by a series of volcanic eruptions combined with an historic low in solar activity.

    The result was:

    major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.[3][4]

    Historian John D. Post has called this "the last great subsistence crisis in the Western world".[5]

    The result was regional malnutrition, starvation, epidemic,[clarification needed] and increased mortality.

    Famine was prevalent in north and southwest Ireland, following the failure of wheat, oats, and potato harvests. The crisis was severe in Germany, where food prices rose sharply. Due to the unknown cause of the problems, demonstrations in front of grain markets and bakeries, followed by riots, arson, and looting, took place in many European cities. It was the worst famine of the 19th century.[8][11]

    All that and more with a global variation of <1 degree Celsius.

    It really is in our interest to keep global temperature averages from fluctuating too far from what we're accustomed to if possible. The repercussions with such a dramatically larger population could be catastrophic.

  9. Re:Round 783 by starless · · Score: 4, Funny

    WRONG. There was NEVER consensus as to the cooling. Not ever. In fact, it was never more then a tiny percent of climatologist.

    You can try to pretend that cooling was "never" predicted. However, the inconvenient truth is that the seminal, and highly cited, work of Strummer et al. (1979) clearly predicted an incipient increase in ice coverage. As they stated (repeatedly):
    The ice age is coming, the sun's zooming in
    Meltdown expected, the wheat is growing thin

    At least, that's the only work I know of from that era that predicts another ice age soon...