Slashdot Mirror


Is Qualcomm the New AMD?

colinneagle writes "It's a darned shame, but the writing is on the wall for AMD. The ATI graphics business is the only thing keeping it afloat right now as sales shrivel up and the company faces yet another round of staffing cuts. You can only cut so many times before there's no one left to innovate you out of the mess you're in. Qualcomm, on the other hand, dominates this space, and it has the chips to back it up. The Snapdragon line of ARM-based processors alone is found in a ridiculous number of prominent devices, including Samsung Galaxy S II and S III, Nokia Lumia 900 and 920, Asus Transformer Pad Infinity and the Samsung Galaxy Note. Mind you, Samsung is also in the ARM processor business, yet it is licensing Qualcomm's parts. That's quite a statement."

64 of 331 comments (clear)

  1. If AMD Dies... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If AMD folds Intel will bend the consumer over and stuff them even harder than they are now. But if you like being penetrated by cement-filled pringles cans....

    (Intel does make good stuff, but they gouge you for the brand and they behave very unethically).

    1. Re:If AMD Dies... by Pinhedd · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Intel is already years ahead of AMD. They have well over 80% market share in the PC market and over 90% in the server and workstation market. There's a large performance spread between AMDs processors and Intels processors in both single threaded performance and overall performance per watt. If Intel wants to bend consumers over, they are already in a position to do so. However, they seem to be sticking to their roadmap despite the fact that AMD has been falling farther and farther behind.

    2. Re:If AMD Dies... by cheesybagel · · Score: 5, Interesting

      If Intel wants to bend consumers over, they are already in a position to do so. However, they seem to be sticking to their roadmap despite the fact that AMD has been falling farther and farther behind.

      Have you looked at Intel CPU prices lately? It hasn't been this bad since the Pentium II times. I would also point out that there are no Ivy Bridge server processors available, nor is their 6 core processor based on Ivy Bridge despite the first Ivy Bridge processors coming out a long time ago.

    3. Re:If AMD Dies... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      Have you looked at Intel CPU prices lately?

      Yes. A high-end i7 costs less than my Pentium-4 did last time I built a Windows PC.

    4. Re:If AMD Dies... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      What are you talking about? In performance per US dollar, Intel has been winning the race hands down. I can get a Core i-5 3570k for about $220 USD. With decent memory, motherboard and cooling I can clock it up to 4.4 ghz and it's stable and not running too hot. To get that kind of performance at that price from AMD... oh, wait.. I can't.

    5. Re:If AMD Dies... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      And you can get a 1090T at half that price with just about the same stock clock speed...

      Isn't that the one that's beaten in benchmarks by a slow i3 that uses half the power?

      You see, AMD don't sell their top-end CPUs cheap because they like you, they do it because they can't compete with Intel at higher prices.

    6. Re:If AMD Dies... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

      No, they do it in large part because Intel has engaged in some pretty obnoxious antitrust violations over the last decade or so and got what's barely a slap on the wrist. AMD for it's part did some really stupid stuff as well, but it's hard to make a profit when your competitor is paying systems integrators not to use your products.

      Also, while most folks here seem to be on the AMD is walking dead meme, the fact of the matter is that Intel can't afford for AMD to go out of business any more than MS could have afforded Apple to go out of business during the '90s. If it really does get to that point, you'll see Intel laying off for a while to let AMD catch up.

      The big problem that AMD has right now is old debt and an inability to produce enough chips to satisfy demand. That's not something that's generally true of chips that are being sold for the maximum price people will pay.

    7. Re:If AMD Dies... by Kjella · · Score: 2

      If Intel wants to bend consumers over, they are already in a position to do so. However, they seem to be sticking to their roadmap despite the fact that AMD has been falling farther and farther behind.

      Of course they are, because their process and IPC improvements is how they have such a huge gross margin - I think around 62%. AMD has been in the 40s but their last quarter was an abysmal 37%. Look at this chart over die sizes. From Lynnfield in 2009 to Ivy Bridge in 2012 their mainstream die has shrunk from around 300mm^2 to 150mm^2 which makes the chips far cheaper to produce while their prices stay high and Intel pockets the difference. That might be good for Intel but with fierce competition they could have easily delivered an 8-core chip for $332 instead of a 4-core IVB. And with AMD increasingly bailing on the traditional CPU market, it's not going to get better.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    8. Re:If AMD Dies... by thePowerOfGrayskull · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Only in tech would someone consider a gross margin of 37% abysmal.

    9. Re:If AMD Dies... by Billly+Gates · · Score: 2

      The Phenom IIs were not that bad. They had the best value. It was the bulldozer ones that suck goatballs. But they are from 2009 and there time has come. They were only 10% slower than the first generation icore5s/icore7s, but I could get a whole cpu + motherboard for $229! Not just the cpu. If you want the extreme edition of intel you would pay$700 just for the chip and that would cover the cost of the whole system.

      Today though you are correct. The newer Bulldozers that just came out are competitive with icore5 with games on laptops due to intels abysmal HD graphics which are in the process of improving by the way but still suck. Better than the icore3s with integer performance.

      But I agree AMD lost and bet that accelerated HTML and flash would be much bigger now back in 2009 when AMD designed Bulldozer. Worse the Windows 7 kernel can't utilize the cores to share the FPU properly. Windows 8 can but it doesn't count as no one is going to run it due to METRO.

      I am really worried and afraid Apple or someone will eat htem up and you can expect your intel cpu that is $225 to turn into $550 by years end!

    10. Re:If AMD Dies... by Pinhedd · · Score: 5, Interesting

      It's a lot more complicated than that. photolithography is a very complex process. As dies shrink due to a smaller nodal size it becomes increasingly more difficult to fabricate a single chip until that process matures.

      All 150+ 4/6/8 core Sandybridge processors were sourced from only 5 different chips with 2/4/8 cores a piece and varying amounts of cache. The yield on the 8 cores is low even on the mature 32nm process so they demand a huge price premium. Those with defective cores have some disabled and are sold as 6 core variants.

      Since defects are fairly consistent per wafer, yields on a 200mm^2 Sandybridge are exponentially higher than they are on a ~400mm^2 Sandybridge. The same is true for Ivybridge. I'm not sure if Intels 22nm process has matured enough to make 8 core Ivybridge processors economically feasible quite yet. Thus, 220mm^2 yields on Intel's 32nm process may be comparable or even higher than 160mm^2 yields on Intel's 22nm process.

      TSMC's 28nm process was backlogged for quite some time due to low yields. The GTX680 was unavailable for the longest time because it required that a large chip be fabricated with no defects, the GTX670 which came later allowed for part of the chip to be disabled, thus increasing yields. AMD had the same problem with their HD 7000 series, low yields on the top end processors reduced their ability to ship those processors. Fortunately for them they had a stripped down version (HD 7950) ready to go at the same time rather than months later.

      Intel is a remarkably conservative company. They're not known for announcing a product unless they know that they can make it available and thus it doesn't make sense to introduce an 8 core Ivybridge processor unless they know that they can actually deliver it. This is why the Sandybridge-E processors came around much later, and the same will be true for Ivybridge-E

    11. Re:If AMD Dies... by Ironhandx · · Score: 3, Informative

      Yes, in fact if you read the fine print every Intel processor built today is built on the AMD64 architecture.

      IMO the biggest mistake AMD ever made was to license that tech back. Due to Intel licensing them the X86 arch though it may have been forced due to some sort of reciprocity clause for anything developed to supplement x86.

      AMDs market share was too small for courts to go after them for market abuse though, if existing deals didn't force it then they should have kept it.

    12. Re:If AMD Dies... by ifiwereasculptor · · Score: 2

      I don't think Intel can afford that type of strategy anymore, even if AMD was gone. If they started charging $550 for i5s, then gamers and light users will turn to consoles and ARM chips, repectively. Demanding professional users (video editors, programmers etc) would be stuck, but only for a while. I think what Intel is doing now is as far as they can go: artificially disabling advanced features on cheaper chips. They're the top dogs because x86 is the stanrdard for desktops, and it's only still the standard because it's cheap. Why do you think they sell $40 Celerons? It's not because they're charitable, it's because if they lose the low end, the high-end will surely follow in about five years, and all they'll have left the server market. We might all be using ARM or loongson CPUs, but we won't keep paying ridiculous sums for what will probably be unneeded computing power.

      As for Bulldozer, besides the Windows 7 scheduler problem, compilers are only now implementing BD-specific optimizations. They seem to improve performance quite a bit in a few tests. I think BD's performance potential has been misjudged (though its power consumption has been correctly assessed and it sucks incredibly).

    13. Re:If AMD Dies... by thePowerOfGrayskull · · Score: 2

      Gross margin is essentially your profit after most expenses. That seems to make a loss unlikely at that margin- which is pretty healthy.

    14. Re:If AMD Dies... by ExecutorElassus · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Well, I'm not entirely sure of that. For example: I do audio work, and video work, and like gaming, and compile my own software. All of those things take a robust desktop architecture to do well. You're not really suggesting that I'd switch to a tablet running BOINC in the background 24/7 while I process high-def audio files, are you?

      So let's discuss alternatives. Say AMD goes down. What are my options as a consumer in, say, five years if I want to avoid Intel, but want all the horsepower I can get my hands on for a desktop workstation? I really don't thing it's going to be Qualcomm, if they're targeting low-wattage mobile devices. Are there any other CPU manufacturers who are positioned to step into that market?

    15. Re:If AMD Dies... by cheesybagel · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's bullshit. AMD couldn't afford to build a new fab because Hector Ruiz blew up AMD's cash reserves buying ATI lock stock and barrel over the stock market price just before the 2008 market crash. In fact this particular little deal smelled so bad a lot of people went to court and Hector was forced to quit his post.

    16. Re:If AMD Dies... by rsmith-mac · · Score: 5, Informative

      I can't speak for other industries, but for the semiconductor industry gross margin is measured as revenue from a chip minus the immediate production costs. For AMD this would be how much they paid GloFo for the chip (or rather averaged across the wafer), plus the costs of testing, assembly/packaging, boxing, and shipping. It does not include advertising, R&D, taxes, etc. And as I stated earlier, R&D is a massive expense. All of those engineers designing the next chip are a huge cost that have to be paid.

      You can take a look at AMD's finances first-hand and see how this plays out; AMD has never made a profit with gross margins below 44% or so. Intel would be an even better example: 13.5B in revenue, 3B in net income, and a gross margin of 63.3%. That would put Intel's profit margin at 22% versus their gross margin of 63.3%. Where did all the money go? R&D and fab upgrades. Gross margin only covers your immediate expenses in the semiconductor industry.

    17. Re:If AMD Dies... by hairyfeet · · Score: 2

      This is why I'm still selling AMD units, although I've been sticking with the Phenom II and Liano chips. The problem is the Bulldozer chip is really designed for server loads, not desktop. You can find the AMD Phenom II X6 new for less than $120, the Deneb quads for a little less than $100, and the Athlon triples and quads for $60-$80, that's a damned good bang for the buck.

      But I wouldn't count AMD out just yet, they did recently hire back the lead designer of the Athlon64 who went to Apple and designed the A6 so the guy knows his stuff. And their APU units are waaay better than anything Intel puts out thanks to the Radeon GPUs. This is one area I think they nailed it, as users get more and more multimedia heavy having a "good enough" CPU with an excellent GPU makes a lot of sense, I can watch videos for nearly 5 hours on my E350 netbook and that is with a year old battery.

      So I do hope that more people will put their money where their mouth is and buy AMD, they still have some really good chips at crazy cheap prices. I paid just $110 for my 1035T and when combined with my HD4850 it plays all the latest games and just chews through video transcodes and other multithreaded programs. Oh and you can get the Liano quad laptops starting at just $400 new from tiger, I've picked up a couple of those for customers and they are quite nice, the build quality is good, doesn't get too hot, and gets a hair over 4 hours on the battery which really isn't bad for 4 cores and a midrange GPU. And if the rumors are true and they can get the Bobcat quads under 25w I have NO doubt those will sell. I've already switched offices that were hanging onto old P4s and Pentium Ds for E350s and the lower cost of electricity and cooling make them practically pay for themselves, i can only imagine how many SMBs would like desktops that use so little power yet run all their programs with decent speed.

      As for ARM taking over from X86? That is like saying mopeds are gonna replace pickup trucks, they are simply two different use cases. With ARM most folks toss the device every couple of years or when their contract is up, whichever comes first, whereas with X86 frankly the PCs I was selling on the low end 5 years ago would be more than enough for most people. With ARM you are seeing an early 00s style MHz race while on X86 frankly the Phenom I X3s and X4s I was selling 4 years ago give you cycles to spare, its really no comparison.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    18. Re:If AMD Dies... by Billly+Gates · · Score: 2

      They're the top dogs because x86 is the stanrdard for desktops, and it's only still the standard because it's cheap.

      No, they're top dogs because of "Wintel". If Windows had been running on ARM since XP it would be a whole different story.

      Yep. Corporations are the bread and butter. Consumers are fickly and dirt cheap. They will happily pay $1800 for a desktop if no competition exists because that is what their tools require. This is what they used to pay back in the 1990s. DO you think Intel actually cares about gamers? Then why such a horrible crappy graphics that is 10 years behind and so terrible that game developers are quiting the PC platform due to it owning 70% of the market!

      Intel wants crappy graphics so you go out and buy an icore7 extreme instead of an icore3 with a dedicated card. They love things running in software and bloated operating systems. So to them no competition and high margins will make them more money and raise the share price which is the goal of any corporation that is public.

      Yes Intel would be happy to charge $500 and more after that annoying AMD is out of the picture because they know you will pay for it to run Windows.

    19. Re:If AMD Dies... by xswl0931 · · Score: 2

      Some people will laugh at this idea, but cloud computing is a viable alternative.

    20. Re:If AMD Dies... by silanea · · Score: 2

      The second letter in Llano is not capitalised, it is a lowercase L. Not trying to be a spelling nazi, this is quite a common misunderstanding.

      --
      Rudolf Hess edited Mein Kampf. He was the very first grammar nazi.
    21. Re:If AMD Dies... by unixisc · · Score: 2

      As for ARM taking over from X86? That is like saying mopeds are gonna replace pickup trucks, they are simply two different use cases. With ARM most folks toss the device every couple of years or when their contract is up, whichever comes first, whereas with X86 frankly the PCs I was selling on the low end 5 years ago would be more than enough for most people. With ARM you are seeing an early 00s style MHz race while on X86 frankly the Phenom I X3s and X4s I was selling 4 years ago give you cycles to spare, its really no comparison.

      You are talking apples vs pineapples here. Right now, ARM is a phone chip and x64 a laptop chip. But at this point, it depends on how things go b/w MS, Google and Apple. If Microsoft really blows it w/ Windows 8, Intel will go down w/ it, despite all that technological superiority and fab capacity. As the history of RISC in the 90s proved, the best technology doesn't always win.

  2. We NEED Processor Competition by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 3, Insightful

    We MUST have competition in the high-end processor market. Intel has a long history of abuse and monopolistic practices. Without a decent competitor, you can expect your processor prices to soar, just as they did in the past when Intel was essentially the only player.

    This is not an option. We MUST have somebody to compete with Intel.

    1. Re:We NEED Processor Competition by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I've been boycotting intel for years because of their anti competitive bullshit. Nvidia too. Unfortunately I'm in a tiny minority. Nobody really gives a fuck.

    2. Re:We NEED Processor Competition by _Shad0w_ · · Score: 2, Informative

      AMD created x64; Intel licences it from them. In return AMD licences x86 from Intel. If AMD does go tits up at some point, it will almost certainly be Intel at the front of the queue to buy all the x64 rights.

      --

      Yeah, I had a sig once; I got bored of it.

    3. Re:We NEED Processor Competition by Sir_Sri · · Score: 2

      We MUST have competition in the high-end processor market.

      Strictly speaking you don't have that now. The best AMD offering is barely at the mid range of an Intel lineup. But that is, believe it or not quite secondary to the story.

      AMD bought ATI, that was probably good from a technical sense, but they went from having no money to having 5 billion dollars less than no money. So they sold their ARM business to Qualcomm. Who, if you frequent job boards for these things, are either actually at old AMD/ATI facilities, or they are right next to them, including ATI headquarters.

      Qualcomm have money, they have marketshare, and AMD is worth nothing, oh, and they've had tremendous success buying AMD's arm business. See what I'm getting at? AMD is in deep trouble, but someone has the foresight to be very well positioned to pick up all of the pieces...

      See now that AMD doesn't own globalfoundries they're free to do business with other customers, like Broadcomm, Qualcomm and a few others use them a major supplier, Qualcomm avoids anti trust issues buying from them, they can probably scavenge the remnants of the x86 licence for a pittance if they want it, and if not they can just pull in all of the staff worth having.

      We may see two high end processors, one ARM and one x86. That's probably bad for the market as a whole, but with windows and their 90% marketshare forking windows 8 to be both that's certainly a direction the industry can move in.

    4. Re:We NEED Processor Competition by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2

      "Strictly speaking you don't have that now."

      That is mostly true, and I don't like that situation at all.

      Back when Intel was pretty much the only player in the desktop market (there were a few Z-80 systems later on, but relatively few), the CPU could be half the cost of the whole PC, and that just kept getting worse until they actually got some competition in the market.

    5. Re:We NEED Processor Competition by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

      So they sold their ARM business to Qualcomm.

      Eh? AMD only got an ARM license recently while Qualcomm was selling Snapdragon four years ago. Intel were the ones which had purchased xScale off Digital but sold it off to Marvell.

    6. Re:We NEED Processor Competition by Rockoon · · Score: 2

      You mean like how a new FX-8150 just keeps up with an i7 920 that was released 4 years ago?

      FX-8150 $190

      If you are spending $190 on a processor, you have two choices.. the FX-8150 or the i5-3330. There is absolutely no doubt that the FX-8150 beats the crap out of that particular i5. Intel has no competitor to the FX-8150 at its price point.
      Why do you Intel fanboys always do faulty comparisons?

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
  3. Samsung's relationship by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Samsung is licensing the SoCs for the US market only. The flagship products (Galaxy S II,III and Note) are all using Exynos for every other market.

    1. Re:Samsung's relationship by Buminatrain · · Score: 3, Informative

      Yup, entire article (if you can call it that) is garbage. Not even really clear to me what they're trying to say... "Qualcomm dominates this space"? what does that even mean? Qualcomm has no slice of the x86 market, Adreno GPU a success where AMD failed? Ummm... pretty sure Qualcomm needed a quality chip to integrate into it's Snapdragon and AMD was happy to sell one, unless AMD had some secret ARM program that they were planning on taking over the mobile market with that didn't succeed that I never heard of.

    2. Re:Samsung's relationship by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 2

      Samsung is licensing the SoCs for the US market only. The flagship products (Galaxy S II,III and Note) are all using Exynos for every other market.

      Yeah, the summary misses that. And, frankly, my takeaway from this is exactly the opposite of the submitters' - Qualcomm is beholden to the competition, and that's not a good situation to be in. Apple has shown where the future probably lies, being well on their way to bringing their chip production completely in-house; and Samsung obviously has the means to do so. I wouldn't be surprised to see Google itself do some strategic purchasing in this area, if it hasn't already.

      Microsoft might also get into this game, but I imagine they'll wait a bit longer and see how the Windows tablet market develops (or fails to develop). They're already in the weird position of moving into direct competition with their existing partners while pretending not to be, and right now they seem to be trying hard to pretend the elephant in the room doesn't exist. If they started buying up chip makers, that would basically be the official announcement "goodbye, guys, and thanks for all the fish". Not that Asus and others don't already know what's coming, but they probably would just as soon play along for a couple more years while they try to figure out what the heck they can do, since their entire business model involves being completely dependent on Microsoft.

      --
      #DeleteChrome
  4. Anything that ends in a question mark.... by chris200x9 · · Score: 4, Informative

    ...can be answered with a "no"

    1. Re:Anything that ends in a question mark.... by ThePeices · · Score: 4, Funny

      Anything that ends in a question mark.......can be answered with a "no"

      Can anything that ends in a question mark be answered no?

    2. Re:Anything that ends in a question mark.... by ericloewe · · Score: 5, Funny

      I must ask that you refrain from creating paradoxes. You might trap a defenceless AI that happened to be reading these comments.

      Have a heart and help those who can't defend themselves.

    3. Re:Anything that ends in a question mark.... by supersloshy · · Score: 4, Funny

      What did he do there?

      No.

      --
      "Our country is not nearly so overrun with the bigoted as it is overrun with the broadminded." -Archbishop Fulton Sheen
  5. Re:anti competitive? by Microlith · · Score: 2

    Split the company in two. Mandatory patent cross licensing between the two plus mandatory licensing to any 3rd party that asks.

  6. Re:Qualcomm is but a shadow of AMD by Btarlinian · · Score: 4, Informative

    Qualcomm manufacture ARM chips, like a dozen other companies, there is nothing special about them.

    This is explicitly false. Qualcomm designed their own cores that implement the ARM instruction set. They did not license the Cortex A-x designs and glue them together (like every other ARM SoC vendor, including Samsung.) That also ignores the fact that they are the only ones making usable LTE basebands right now. Qualcomm right now is so dominant that if anything, they're the Intel of the mobile world.

  7. Re:Qualcomm is but a shadow of AMD by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

    Well Qualcomm designs their own chips. They don't just license a CPU core. In that regard they do something similar to AMD which licenses the X86 architecture from Intel but design their own chips. It used to be that AMD had their own manufacturing capabilities but this is no longer true. We can thank Hector Ruiz for that.

  8. Re:Maybe so ... by Btarlinian · · Score: 3, Informative

    Intel has sent nothing overseas. Their manufacturing R&D is all done in Oregon, and most of their leading edge chips are made in Oregon and Arizona with fabs in Israel and Ireland as well. They have exactly one fab in China that makes 65nm products, which now just consists of some old chipsets.

  9. AMD ~= Qualcomm by ThePeices · · Score: 2

    Not a fair comparison. AMD design their CPU's in-house. Qualcomm licence theirs from ARM.

    1. Re:AMD ~= Qualcomm by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 2

      My impression is that what ARM licenses out is the high-level architecture - instruction set, external hardware interface, that kind of thing. But not low-level hardware design that implements all that stuff, so every vendor really does their own thing there. In which case it wouldn't be all that different from AMD, since they also license a lot of the architecture from Intel, and then implement it differently.

    2. Re:AMD ~= Qualcomm by Guy+Harris · · Score: 2

      My impression is that what ARM licenses out is the high-level architecture - instruction set, external hardware interface, that kind of thing. But not low-level hardware design that implements all that stuff, so every vendor really does their own thing there.

      My impression is that ARM licenses both - you can design your own ARM processor core and license only, for example, the instruction set, or you can license one of ARM's core designs to, for example, include in a system-on-a-chip along with your own designs or other licensed designs.

  10. Re:The reason Samsung is using Qualcomm stuff... by Btarlinian · · Score: 2, Informative

    No it's because Qualcomm owns the LTE market. In order to sell a phone with LTE you have to buy a baseband from Qualcomm since they make the only capable LTE chips on the market. Qualcomm (i.e., it's foundries) have been capacity constrained for at least a year now so they can insist you buy their entire SoC with integrate LTE baseband if you want an LTE chip. (That's ignoring the fact that you usually have less power consumption if your baseband and SoC are on the same die.)

  11. Re:The reason Samsung is using Qualcomm stuff... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Samsung's latest Galaxy S3 now comes with Exynos quad core with LTE, so your information is outdated.

  12. Semi-Accurate on why AMD is cratering by steveha · · Score: 5, Interesting

    AMD management made some bad decisions, then got rid of all the people who argued against those decisions. Now they are going to cut costs by firing the engineers who could develop new products. It is now inevitable: AMD is doomed.

    "Unless the entire board and their puppets are removed in the next week or two, the little chance AMD has now will vanish. There is no up side here."

    AMD's layoffs target engineering -- Board incompetence dooms the company

    "AMD senior management, or (mis)management, as we are now calling them, have delayed the roadmap past the critical point. Project Win was survivable, barely. The churn of technical talent made things worse, far worse, and put the company at the breaking point. Layoffs sapped confidence, and senior management was negligent in not messaging a damn thing to those who mattered internally and externally. The cuts that will follow ensure that the plans in place are not achievable, and SemiAccurate can not see AMD surviving at this point."

    AMD is imploding because management doesn't understand semiconductors -- Analysis: You can't Win by ignoring fundamentals

    --
    lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
    1. Re:Semi-Accurate on why AMD is cratering by steveha · · Score: 2

      Charlie is an armchair CEO of AMD, and his analysis is about as accurate as the name of his website suggests.

      He is an analyst; his job is to write analyses. He has been rather harsh on AMD, but then he has been harsh on Intel and harsh on nVidia also.

      His predictions about Ultrabooks from a year ago were accurate. (He said they were overpriced and wouldn't sell well.)

      I'm actually hoping that his current predictions of doom for AMD won't come true. What he wrote was "if the planned layoffs happen, AMD is doomed"; there is at least a tiny chance that maybe the planned layoffs won't actually happen.

      If the layoffs are as he describes, then I'll join him in predicting doom for AMD. AMD has no future without its engineers. The plan to outsource engineering for the video cards strikes me as insane; there is an old saying, "You can't outsource your core competency." AMD right now is a design house that hires out the actual fabbing of its processors. If it hires out design and fabbing, what is left for AMD to do that really adds value?

      If AMD hires out the engineering on video cards, either they will end up spending more on quality engineering, in which case they didn't save any money (or their costs actually go up!); or they will spend less on middle-of-the-road engineering, in which case they won't be able to compete with nVidia.

      Maybe, just maybe, the hot light of publicity before the planned round of layoffs will make AMD management think twice. If not, a few years from now, Qualcomm will be buying up AMD intellectual property at fire-sale prices when AMD goes under. (Or maybe Intel will buy it all and just shred it.)

      --
      lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
    2. Re:Semi-Accurate on why AMD is cratering by Pulzar · · Score: 2

      He is an analyst; his job is to write analyses. He has been rather harsh on AMD, but then he has been harsh on Intel and harsh on nVidia also.

      I didn't disagree that that's his job, I'm just saying that he does it poorly. He has a sprinkle of insider information, and paints a very inaccurate picture around it. He probably heard that AMD is planning on licensing out its graphics cores, and misunderstood it as outsourcing. Or, he heard that Markham location will be hit hard and he thinks graphics cores are done there, but they haven't been for many years.

      The graphics cores are one thing where AMD is still near the leading edge, and Rory Read has repeatedly said that he wants to restructure the company to use its strengths better. If they start outsourcing things, graphics will be the last one to go, when they sell of the company and shut the doors.

      It's one thing to be harsh, AMD deserves it, it's another to be completely inaccurate.

      --
      Never underestimate the bandwidth of a 747 filled with CD-ROMs.
  13. Re:What is Samsung licensing the competing CPUs fo by Sir_Sri · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Samsung has to run its parts and products business independently, otherwise their parts business would lose Apple as a customer, and loathe as anyone is to admit it, Apple is a customer you'd rather not lose.

  14. Re:Qualcomm is but a shadow of AMD by Sir_Sri · · Score: 2, Interesting

    In AMD's defence - CPU speed doesn't actually matter that much. This is one of those odd quirks of where we are in the software - hardware cycles. A good GPU will likely have *much* more impact on your noticeable computer performance than a 10% faster CPU. It's really bad form to release a brand new CPU that is actually slower than your old one (clock for clock, in absolute terms, etc.) and the tech press pounced on them for it. But AMD *could* have and should have made the argument probably correctly that you're better off with an AMD Fusion product than an Intel i5 with on chip piece of shit HD graphics 3000 from intel. Granted intel has improved a lot now that they've given up on Larrabee but their HD graphics chips are still horrible compared to what AMD (ATI) can bring to the table.

    I will point out that it was AMD's ARM SoC lineup (which they Acquired from ATI) that Qualcomm is actually doing this with, because Qualcomm bought the whole ARM SoC business from AMD where they were leading the competition. So sure, they aren't doing anything the other guys aren't but they were at the forefront with SoC when they still had the ARM business.

  15. Re:anti competitive? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    And you want them to triple their CPU prices? That would affect the entire world. Of course it would mean that others would try harder to compete but it would take ten or twenty years.

  16. Re:anti competitive? by Microlith · · Score: 2

    You want to punish them for being superior?

    Punish? No, punishment would be a fine or confiscation of assets or something. Dividing the company into two would simply mean that shareholders would have a stake in each company until they sorted things out.

    We, the buying public, would have two companies with top-end technical capabilities, duking it out in the market. Unless you want to assert that corporations in ultra-powerful positions should be left alone even when it goes against the interests of, well, everyone but the company in question.

    I wish when the first genetic mutation that lead to modern humans arised, the inferior/earlier specie, split the head of that mutant, so that no human would ever arise.

    Ah, so you're in the CORPORATIONS = PEOPLE camp. Or maybe CORPORATIONS > PEOPLE camp.

    So any innovation, anyone that shows promise, must be squashed and split! that will teach the innovators.

    No, no corporation should ever be allowed to stay a monopoly.

    So listen up all you people who want to create their own companies! If your company is successful, 1. Microlith will want you to start paying at least 80% in taxes to support garbage like him. 2. If you don't like it, he will ensure that you will not be able to leave the country, or transfer your corporation to another nation. and 2. If you're really successfull, Microlith will want the government to split and destroy your country, and maybe give me some part of it too!! that will teach you. Next time, you'll think twice before being more ambitious than those who are either too stupid to start their own companies, or those who lack all ambition and prefer to live with their parents and get fat while eating twinkies!

    Ah, good 'ol Anonymous Coward. Gotta hide to speak your fascist, corporate supremacist Ayn Randian garbage, right?

  17. Re:anti competitive? by dbIII · · Score: 2

    Not superior everywhere. AMD have a 16 core 2GHz chip thta you can put in 8 sockets and the closest thing Intel has is a 10 core Xeon that is no faster and a lot more expensive. You can put together a 64 core AMD machine with 128GB of ram for $9000, with Intel you just about have to add another zero for anything similar and it's no faster.
    As a poster above is pointing out Intel's newer and faster stuff is only for the desktop and hasn't made it into their server chips, and for more then 2 sockets the speed hasn't improved in a couple of years. To get 3GHz and a lot of cores I had to go for a two socket system.

  18. Re:anti competitive? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Allow me to counter your drivel: people like you should be dragged out into the street, kicking and screeming, then hanged from the nearest light-post.

    You sing the praises of paying virtually no taxes, while benefiting from the wonderful things those taxes provide: a stable economy, powerful defensive force, extensive critical infrastructure, political influence in international dealings, etc. You go on to further sing the laurels of leaving the country to avoid tax hikes in the form of loophole elimination, effectively scamming your fellow countrymen into picking up the tab for services that you have far-and-above benefited from orders of magnitude more than others. And to top it all off, you have the gall to label other people "parasites", emphasizing your lack of remorse for the struggles of those less fortunate.

    You are human trash. You are the worst possible kind of pond scum, and you will eventually be served your comeuppance. Wherever you go, you'll create the very same problems and eventually cultivate the very same kind of social upheaval. One day, you'll run out of places to hide, or you'll pick the wrong haven, and then you'll be the one singing a different tune. I hope I'm there to see it.

  19. Maybe Qualcomm is the new Intel (not AMD) by slew · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Contrary to multiple postings on this thread, Qualcomm designs it's own ARM compatible CPUs (they call the latest version Krait) via an architecture licence from ARM. That's pretty make Qualcomm somewhat like the old-AMD designed it's own x86 compatible CPUs via an architecture license from Intel. However, the new-AMD licences their x86-64 architecture to Intel which designs it's own CPUs (arguably better than AMD).

    On the other hand, Qualcomm acts alot like Intel in the cell-phone space. They use their patents on CDMA and other wireless communications and their first generation 4G-LTE modem/radio to bully cell-phone manufactuers into using Qualcomm SOC chipsets very similar to they way that Intel uses their CPUs to bully computer manufacturers into using Intel chipsets. They have been known to threaten to use bundling, bulk pricing, and even limited availability tricks on other low-end high-volume phone product lines to convince cell phone designers to use their chipsets. Thus you see even Samsung is forced to use Qualcomm SOC chipsets even though they make their own Exynos SOC. This makes them definitey not-like the new AMD in this sense.

  20. Re:anti competitive? by siddesu · · Score: 3

    I have my own company, make innovative products with innovative process, and I sing the same tune. Monopoly is bad for everybody, except for the monopolist. It is bad for the economy, it is bad for the democratic political process, it is bad for capitalism.

    There is a solid, peer-reviewed theoretical foundation behind the idea that monopolies should be regulated, backed by a mountain of empirical evidence. There is no case for unregulated monopoly regardless of the market it operates in.

  21. Re:anti competitive? by Shippu · · Score: 5, Informative

    Superior now. But when amd were ahead intel bribed the major pc makers not to use amd chips. During that time most of dell's income came from intel payments, for example. This is what destroyed amd since they could and can no longer afford r&d.

    http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/nov2009/tc2009114_975298.htm

    The solution would have been for them to pay amd at least 10 billion in damages instead of 1, but that ship has sailed.

  22. Re:anti competitive? by Chris+Burke · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I disagree. Without Intel's backroom dealings AMD would have made enough money to weather the idiocy of Hector the Sector Wrecker (as muh ex-Motorolla buddies call him).

    The whole reason that GloFo had to be spun off is because AMD invested in huge new fabs because they were fab-limited, but then found out they were Intel-limited, their marketshare didn't increase and their fab capacity was unusued. That's crippling for a silicon manufacturing company, so AMD had to stop being one.

    Hector was no help, that's for sure, but I really think it was Intel that crippled AMD at the worst/best time.

    --

    The enemies of Democracy are
  23. Re:anti competitive? by Chris+Burke · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I guess you're just unaware of when AMD had the superior product, but couldn't get OEMs to sell products at the volumes such price and performance superiority would have suggested, because Intel, still the dominant player, had made deals with them not to sell AMD parts. Their market share was growing, necessitating a new fab, but then they hit the artificial limits defined by Intel, a crippling blow after investing billions in a new fab.

    There's only been several verdicts against them by the regulatory authorities of multiple governments, and a lawsuit settled between Intel and AMD in AMD's favor with a 1.75 (iirc) billion payout. A pittance compared to what was lost, of course, but still heavily in the news.

    I suppose it would have been easy to miss if you only just started following the CPU industry.

    --

    The enemies of Democracy are
  24. wrong SoC for half the phones listed by SuperBanana · · Score: 2

    Asus Transformer Pad Infinity

    The entire Transformer line is Tegra2 & Tegra3 based, not Snapdragon.

    The Galaxy S3 is only Snapdragon in the US and Japan market; only one of the S2 flavors has the Snapdragon. The Galaxy Note has two flavors, one with the Snapdragon, one without.

    Iif you're going to post an article hemming and hawing about the state of affairs in the mobile phone chipset market, at least get the chipset right when speaking about the most popular phone in the world right now (the S3), else you'll look like a complete idiot.

  25. The Ivy Bridge processors are not a good example by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The pricing is, but not the CPUs. The problem is there is a finite amount of 22nm capacity. Right now Intel has only one 22nm fab online. They are in the process of converting their fab in Israel to 22nm, but right now the one in Chandler is it.

    That being the case, there is only so much they can choose to produce on that process, and what they are choosing to do is mainstream desktop and laptop processors. They've changed their strategy from using the newest process to the highest end parts first to using it for more mainstream parts, and then moving it in to high end.

    You also can't just say "Well build more capacity!" as not only are they doing that, but it takes a long time (you don't order this stuff online and install it in a day) and costs a ton of money.

    I fully agree that Intel reams people on prices because they can. I mean their low end i5 is as good as AMD's top end Bulldozer for most things. However supply issues are something else. They have to choose what chips to produce in their fabs, and only certain fabs are at certain levels.

    You also can't hate on Intel for their fab investment. They pump more money in to fab technology than anyone else (hence are nearly always a node ahead) and they build most of them in the US. They are really big on R&D and it pays off.

  26. But they didn't have the superior product by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 4, Informative

    They had a faster processor, but that is only one part of the equation. They had two major problems:

    1) They didn't offer a CPU/chipset/mobo solution. Intel does it all for customers, they make the entire core if you want. This is useful to OEMs because there's no finger pointing when there's problems. Doesn't matter which of those components is broken, same company is responsible, they need to find and implement the fix. With the Athlons you could have a 3 way pointing match between AMD, VIA, and whoever made the board all claiming the other guy was responsible for a problem.

    2) No good chipset. The processor was all kinds of fast but woe betide you if you wanted to use it with, say a GeForce DDR. The VIA chipset that was the "premier" solution for it implemented the AGP spec improperly and wouldn't work with the GeForce card since the AGP slot wasn't really AGP, basically just a fast PCI slot. This wasn't the only problem, just one of the most major ones.

    So it is no surprise that some OEMs shied away from them. I built an Athlon system and it was a couple weeks of hell trying to make it work before I found out that no, there was just no way my GeForce would work with it. Back the parts went and in came Intel parts that functioned without error.

    Likewise at work we did have some Athlon systems, Gateway I believe, and they were far more trouble than the Intel systems as a whole.

    Intel isn't just popular because of the power, but their stability. It matters in business. AMD never really had a competitive solution in that regard.

    I'm not saying Intel didn't also try to squash AMD (IA64 was another attempt, since there is no cross licensing for that instruction set) but AMD did little to help themselves. They produced a good processor without the hardware to support it.

    Then they caught another break, with the fuckup that was the P4, but they rested on their laurels and didn't really do much in the way of architecture updates. Intel hit back with the Core 2, then Core i, then Sandy Bridge all of which are stellar performers per clock and there was just nothing new from AMD, until now Bulldozer which is pathetic, worse than their old chips at times.

    Intel is not blameless, but AMD has done themselves few favours.

  27. Re:Maybe so ... by Guspaz · · Score: 2

    Your own link shows a 22nm fab in Israel, so all current-generation Intel fabs are not in the US.

  28. Except they did at the time where it mattered. by Chris+Burke · · Score: 2

    As demonstrated by their marketshare and margins increasing rapidly until they hit the artificial barriers created by Intel. Whatever problems you believe they had were demonstrably not sufficient to limit AMD. Only Intel was.

    1) They didn't offer a CPU/chipset/mobo solution.
    2) No good chipset.

    OEMs might have preferred and AMD-sourced mobo (and they did exist), but it didn't stop them from using AMD parts in either desktop or server markets.

    Also, you seem to be talking about the early to mid K7 days when 1) chipsets were relevant and 2) the VIA chipset was the best performing one for AMD. Later in the K7 lifetime it was the NVidia chipset that ruled the roost. The K7 was the arguably superior solution, but not the product of interest at the time of interest.

    It's the K8 -- the Opteron and Athlon64 -- that were the obviously superior products. At this point the chipsets were in fact AMD-sourced silicon of little practical relevance since they were just bridges between HT and AGP/PCI-e. The actual performance-relevant parts of the chipset were all on the CPU now.

    And this solution was so much better that it took AMD from 'arguably' to 'obviously' superior, first causing AMD's server share to jump up to double-digit numbers for the first time ever in addition to cratering Intel's asking price for Xeons, plus causing their desktop share to grow so rapidly they knew they'd only be able to meet demand with new fab capacity.

    Whatever imperfections in their own product portfolio weren't actually that big a deal, obviously, and it was Intel's backroom dealings that were the problem, as shown in a multitude of court documents.

    I'm not saying Intel didn't also try to squash AMD

    But you are saying that AMD not making it's own mobo, and relying on the VIA266 in the early K7 days when it's the K8 days that matter, had a greater effect on AMD's inability to continue on their marketshare trajectory to it's natural conclusion and fill their fabs than Intel's backroom dealings.

    That's simply a-historical rubbish.

    --

    The enemies of Democracy are